Andrew Cogliano - #16 In the Oilers Top 25 Under 25
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 11:30 AM MDT
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PrintAndrew Cogliano is no longer with the Edmonton Oilers. He was traded to the Anaheim Ducks for a second-round pick in 2013 that the Oilers will either flip to pick up an NHL player sometime in the next two years, or to draft a player who's a very good bet to provide less value in his career than Andrew Cogliano will in the rest of his (new contract notwithstanding). I like Andrew Cogliano. He made his share of mistakes, but I thought he had improved substantially in the defensive zone, and was actually quite good positionally in the offensive zone. He was probably one of the Oilers' best penalty-killers last season, and for all the hand-wringing about his offense, he scored at least 25 even strength points for the fourth consecutive season, which also makes him one of the the top 200 forwards in EV scoring each and every season. Not everyone on the panel agreed with me though. Some obviously thought Cogliano wasn't improving, and others that what he provided now was of little or no value:
Cogliano in the 20's? It just seems ridiculous to have a young guy who's been a consistent NHL scorer that low. But the fact of the matter is that Cogliano is gone, which means he needs to be replaced on the Top 25, and I think we all know which guy just barely missed the cut. After the jump, we'll take a look at #26, Tyler Bunz.
Just kidding! Somehow or another, Bunz lost out to the neither venerable nor terrifying Chris VandeVelde. That Derek and Ben have an irrational hatred of Cogliano is really driven home by the fact that both of them like the slightly older and much worse VandeVelde better. To recap my perspective, here's what I said about VandeVelde when the series opened:
In our last set of rankings, only Jonathan had him outside the Top 25, but VandeVelde had a real Jekyll and Hyde season in 2010-11. In the AHL, he was Mr. Hyde: just 16 points in 67 games to go with a team-worst -17 rating, and not much evidence that he was playing the toughs. Yet somehow that was good enough to earn a call to the big club (I'd have been pissed if I was Brad Moran or Milan Kytnar), and that's where we saw Dr. Jekyll make his appearance, which isn't to say that he looked good, but he didn't look nearly as bad as I was expecting: a 53.6% EV faceoff percentage on 125 draws, a Relative Corsi of -13.5, and two points in twelve games with a -6 rating, which projects out to 14 points and -41 rating over a full 82-game season. Okay, so maybe it was more like Hyde and Hyde. But he can win faceoffs!
Nothing has changed. Chris VandeVelde's debut as a professional was awful. He was a bad AHL player who was then called up to the NHL where he was, unsurprisingly, a bad NHL player. It's possible that last year was just a tough adjustment to pro hockey and that he'll end up improving substantially in 2011-12. But I wouldn't bet on it.
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BBO has been pumping Vande Velde’s tires for years and I never saw it.
Still don’t see it to be honest.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Well he had a super-broner for Schremp as well so….
by Jeremywilhelm on Jul 20, 2011 3:01 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
He really shows the disparity in the interpretation of the 25 under 25.
As the 25 most important players to the Oilers under 25, I think ranking him low isn’t a testament to Cogliano’s ability, but his position in the organization. He is comfortably outside the Oil top-6 and tough fought to be in top-9. That’s a great testament to the forward depth coming up when a team like Anaheim are willing to spend as much as they did on a spot for him. Would’ve been great to keep him, but it didn’t make a lot of sense for the money he was seeking (which would be accompanied with playing time as well to justify it).
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jul 20, 2011 11:44 AM MDT reply actions
This is what Derek had to say when I talked about Bunz and his success in the Whl:
He’s still the 28th-best WHL goalie in the last 7 years. How have the 27 guys in front of him done?
I wonder how you defend CVV’s selection over Bunz. Ok forget Bunz. but how is he ahead of Cogliano? A guy with a better history of production in a much tougher league.
I agree with you Scott. I too think Cogliano improved a lot this season and I was looking forward to a better season this fall. But that is not to be. Well it shouldnt be at the money he demanded.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Does it matter? They are both 4th line centers.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:24 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
actually Cogliano produced like a top 9 forward in the Nhl. While this season he may not have a top 9 spot on our team, still he is miles ahead of CVV in development and as a player
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Produced what, exactly? He’s never come close to winning the battle.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:45 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
At even strength, he was at least on the order of top-six offense in each of his NHL seasons. There are obviously other flaws in his game, but that’s not a bad base to build some defensive skills on.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions
order = border
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions
At wing.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:47 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
you have obviously seen Cogliano so bad that you are willing to slot an Ahl 4th liner ahead of him.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Seen him bad? Have you looked at his numbers?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 1:38 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
compared to CVV?
I am not talking about Cogliano by himself. This is comparison. And oterh than FO which numbers show CVV in a more positive light than Cogliano?
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
A chance.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 1:58 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Please note my ranking of Cogliano is his rank at center. There’s a good chance I may have had him in the top 10 if the Oilers announced his move to wing.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:19 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
I still think it’s crazy that you have VandeVelde as a better center than Cogliano. VandeVelde can take draws better. In every other area, he’s behind.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions
VandeVelde has a chance to beat 4ths, maybe someday thirds as a center.
Cogliano has enough warts in the defensive zone that I doubt he ever will.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:26 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Jeez, Derek, first he needs to beat AHL second-liners. I don’t think there’s another player you and I disagree on so strongly. He’s already older than Cogliano, his offense isn’t even close to being in the same ballpark, and I’d have trouble arguing that his defense is better than Cogliano’s either.
He’s Ryan O’Marra without the injuries or draft pedigree – a serviceable AHL depth player at this point.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Jul 20, 2011 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions
Of course, I should temper that by saying this is his first professional season. Maybe he pulls a Reddox and pulls a 180 degree turn next season.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Jul 20, 2011 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Or maybe VandeVelde tries to find a use for his recreation and tourism degree. I hope he can make a career somewhere for himself in hockey.
I can see the arguement to playing Cogs on the wing, but it’s not like the major arguement against Cogs is that he is consistently out of position. I believe that he can compete for the second line centre position in time with the Ducks.
Copper & Blue
by Lisa McRitchie on Jul 20, 2011 12:40 PM MDT up reply actions
He’s always out of position.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:41 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Every other transitional player gets a break in their first year in the a new league, why aren’t you affording him the same? Is it age?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:40 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Age is the biggest factor; college kids just have a smaller window to impress as professionals because they’ve had so much longer to develop physically. At least with a guy like Teubert (who I didn’t cut much slack in his first pro year) you can make the case that he’s only played against junior-age players and is still quite young.
That’s not the case with Vande Velde.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Jul 20, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions
He has two marketable skills – faceoffs and penalty killing. He has some time to figure it out.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:39 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Cogliano can probably beat fourths now, but setting that aside, I’m very surprised that you believe VandeVelde has a better chance at doing that well one day than Cogliano does, even if you “doubt” Cogliano. I mean, yeah, VandeVelde has a chance to play effective minutes in the NHL, but it’s bordering on negligible.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Cogliano has a chance to someday play effective minutes in the NHL, too.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:44 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
At wing.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 12:44 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree with you that he’d almost certainly make a better winger than he has a center, but that doesn’t mean he has no chance to play effective minutes at center, and if we’re talking worse odds than VandeVelde, we’re getting pretty close to no chance.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 12:51 PM MDT up reply actions
Now you’re getting it!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 1:37 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh no, I’ve understood your position was irrational for a while now. I even mentioned it in the article!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Put it this way, left at centre the very best Cogliano could hope for if everything comes up Milhouse is Richard Park’s less defensive able doppelganger.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 2:22 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I just don’t see how that can possibly be the optimistic view. I think he’s been getting better at playing the position – and David’s detail work would seem to confirm that he was decent last year compared to some of the other centers on the club – that he could handle dregs just fine now if he was on a good team, and that if he continues to improve, he may well end up being a very effective top nine player at evens. That is an optimistic assessment, of course, but your “everything comes up Milhouse” view is pretty close to what I would think of as the worst-case scenario for Cogliano over the next three years, since he’d probably find himself out of the league at that point. That’s possible of course, but there’s no way that it’s the best-case scenario.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions
How do you look at a center with no faceoff ability, no defensive ability, an inability to create shots, and an inability to prevent shots and think “Yeah! There’s a player there!”?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
We’re just not seeing the same things. I’m seeing him improve in areas like positioning and coverage. In the offensive zone, I think he’s now quite good positionally, actually, and while progress has been slower in the defensive zone, I think he’s coming along. You seem to have no hope that Cogliano will get better, whereas I think that he has been getting better, and I think it shows in some of his numbers. His Relative Corsi, for example, has improved every season even though he’s had more difficult ice time in each successive season. His shot rate also improved year-over-year in each of his first three seasons before taking a step back in 2010-11. That he took a step back obviously isn’t a good thing, but over the course of his career, I think there’s been real improvement in his ability to find shooting areas. Part of his decline this year came because (I found) he made a more conscious effort not to cheat for offense. I guess what I’m saying is that if he was played in the same circumstances next year as MacTavish gave him in his rookie year, he’d be able to beat his opposition pretty handily, and that if he continues to improve, he might be able to handle a more difficult role. On the other hand, if you gave those easy minutes to VandeVelde, based mostly on his performance last season, I think he’d get killed.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 8:17 PM MDT up reply actions
It would’ve all been solved by moving him to the wing. They moved Gagner there for awhile, why not Cogliano?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t know why he never moved over. We completely agree on him being more suited to playing as a winger.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 11:14 PM MDT up reply actions
He’s gotta beat AHL 4ths first. never mind 2nds and nevermind NHL 4ths.
They are the same age and CVV is behind Cogs in every way except for C.
Shit, if Cogs put up the season CVV did he wouldn’t even garner a 7th round pick.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Jeeze Scott – why you gotta give us an Edmonton Oilers Prospects version of a rick-roll there man? Not cool to troll your readers…
So… tempted… to… add… rickroll… link… Must… fight… temp…ta… tion…
Rickroll is so 2008. Isn’t it all about Nyan Cat now?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
I don’t think Cogliano is a sure bet even as an effective 3rd line offensive guy. His Points/60 over the last two seasons (~1.36) has him at about the 250th mark amongst regular forwards in the league. If you do the quick math, 9×30, that’s near the bottom of the third line range (180-270).
I just don’t think he brings much value over any 30 year old journeyman UFA center (perhaps less if cap hit is considered).
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
And the two years before were held up by an insane shooting percentage
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 20, 2011 2:25 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
its hilarious that you use numbers to criticise cogliano, yet put Vande Velde ahead of him!
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
He’s still the 28th-best WHL goalie in the last 7 years. How have the 27 guys in front of him done?
Huh, VandeVelde’s best season in college didn’t land him in the top 60 of WCHA scorers during those seven years. How have the 60+ guys in front of him done?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 20, 2011 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not saying Vande Velde is going to be good, I’ve got him ranked 21st, 1 spot ahead of Bruce and a bunch behind Ben. Anyone outside of the top 10 is in tough to play 200 NHL games.
He has two years left on his contract to figure out the game. Cogliano has little chance of figuring out the game as a center.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
They are the same age.
Why does a guy who has been lightyears behind at every step have 2 years to figure it out while the guy who has always been ahead doesn’t?
CVV may have the face-off part down pat, but he’s got so much ground to make up everywhere else that there’s virtually no chance he’ll ever even come close.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
But the percentages work both ways. He was riding high in 2007-08 and 2008-09, but 2009-10 and 2010-11 are the mirror image with shooting percentages well below his average, and in 2010-11, an on-ice shooting percentage that was in the bottom third of the league (6.9%). He’s got enough offense to play in the top nine.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions
You’re preaching to the inconvertible. You of all people should know those signs, Scott. :)
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 20, 2011 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions
4 seasons is still a fairly small sample. Give me 6 seasons and I think we’ll have a good idea what kind of shooter Cogliano is. If he’s near last two years, he’s borderline 3rd liner for offence. If he’s going back to first two year rates, we gave up on a decent player.
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
Yeah, there’s still bound to be lots of variation from year to year, but going with the four-year average as a projection as opposed to choosing either years 1+2 or years 3+4 seems like the best bet.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions
I admit I’m combining some of my practical viewing into my prediction (I’ve seen him live about 30 times and on TV for 80% of his career games or so). I’ve never been high on his offensive abilities from a pure qualitative standpoint. He has a poor shot, OK passing skills, and year to year I think he’s been going to the dirty areas less and less.
I just don’t see how he’s going to generate any more then what he has shown.
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
Yeah, our general impressions are quite different. I think his shot is fine, and I definitely wouldn’t say he’s been going to the “hard areas” less frequently. If anything, I’d say he’s been willing to engage physically more often, although he’s still not very effective in extended puck battles along the boards, so we might be using different language to say similar things on that score.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2011 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions
You really think Cogliano’s shot is fine? I can remember about 2 good ‘shot’ goals from Cogliano last season. A lot of poke-your-stick-in-the-mud type goals.
And I definitely think he goes to the scoring horseshoe less.
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
giving up on Cogliano was the right choice given his contract demands as he would not be given the opprotunity in Edmonton.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Either Bob Murray is nuts buying a year of free agency for $3.1M or Cogliano was asking for more money than we have been led to beleive. Probably a little from column A and a little from column B.
Even at $1.9 million for a year, he’s still better value than Brule.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And still doesn’t generate shots so he’s going to rely solely on percentages.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well, let's not beat up on Derek too badly...
Ben’s clearly much crazier ;)
A posse ad esse.
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Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 20, 2011 2:46 PM MDT reply actions
Both players are long-shots to be truly effective NHL players.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But one is using a cannon from WWII and the other a catapult from the 1300’s.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Exactly. However ineffective Cogliano’s been against NHL competition, he’d have to be Smack bad (or worse) to be in the range of a bottom-six AHLer.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
Cogliano was definitely shit. Vande Velde is probably shit.
The reasons I ranked Vande Velde so much higher than the rest of the crowd are multiple:
a) I’m not even close to as optimistic about this team’s prospect depth as some people.
b) I like Vande Velde’s style. Not too big but solid, wins draws, kills penalties, has some two-way ability. Shawn Horcoff light sort of thing. If he comes along, a player like that will always have a career somewhere
c) Have I mentioned how overwhelmingly shit Cogliano is?
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 21, 2011 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions
a) I’m not even close to as optimistic about this team’s prospect depth as some people.
The next 18 months are going to be interesting in that regard.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
c) Have I mentioned how overwhelmingly shit Cogliano is?
At centre.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Derek, why do you suppose three different NHL coaches all stuck like glue with Cogliano at centre? What is it you see that you think they didn’t see?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 21, 2011 8:02 PM MDT up reply actions
You see speed and they didn’t?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 21, 2011 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Right. That’s it. Are you trolling or purposefully obtuse?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Neither. I asked you a question and you didn’t answer it. “What is that YOU see that you think THEY don’t?” (And no, I don’t think the answer would be “speed”, so I threw it back at you.)
I’m just wondering why it seems obvious to you he’s a winger when three grey-haired guys in suits with a combined bazillion years of experience playing/coaching hockey thought otherwise. There’s a disconnect here somewhere.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 22, 2011 7:13 PM MDT up reply actions
You could invent a new position for Cogliano called “Skate Really Fast in a Straight Line and That’s Fucking All”man and he’d still be shit.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 21, 2011 10:54 PM MDT up reply actions
No no… Vande Velde is definitely shit.
What two way ability does he have? His offense is horrible and he didn’t seem to do so well defensively in either the AHL or NHL.
Oh yeah, and he’s the same age as Cogliano. Let’s put that in perspective. If Cogs had put up the season Vande Velde just did he’d be lucky to fetch a 7th round pick.
I can’t believe anyone can look at these 2 players and conclude that Cogliano is the one with less chance at a future.
Cogliano was better as a 20 year old rookie than Vande Velde was as a 24 year old, nevermind their abilities right now.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
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