Andy Sutton and Options
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 18, 2011 4:31 PM MDT
in Opinion
Email
Print
When Andy Sutton was traded to the Edmonton Oilers, I didn't think it made much sense for the team. A lot of that had to do with Sutton's play in Anaheim. Sure, he missed the start of the year because of a thumb injury, but he also missed five of six playoff games as a healthy scratch. And he wasn't exactly getting sat down for a who's who either: a raw rookie in Cam Fowler, a very green Luca Sbisa, long-time tweener Sheldon Brookbank, and oldster Andreas Lilja. Why was Sutton behind this crew of players?
During the season, Randy Carlyle tried his best to protect Sutton at even strength, giving the tough zone-starts and tough competition to our old friend Lubomir Visnovsky, and partner Toni Lydman. Sutton ended up with 53.3% of his end-zone starts in the offensive zone, but had just 45.4% of his end-zone finishes in the offensive zone. His Corsi of -18.74/60 was the second-worst rate among Ducks' defenders, and significantly worse than any of the Oilers' regular defenders with the exception of Jason Strudwick. You'll notice that one guy he didn't beat was Kurtis Foster, who took a lot of deserved flack, but is probably a better player and better fit than Sutton.
One thing that fans didn't like about Foster was his lack of physical play, and that's certainly one area that Sutton has Foster beat. Of course, last season, that physical play resulted in Sutton being one of the most frequently penalized defensemen in the league. More physicality is good, but when it results in a tonne of penalties, it almost certainly doesn't help the team win games. In terms of fit, Sutton just doesn't. Theo Peckham brings a lot of what Sutton does but with a lot more upside. If Sutton is slated for the right side, why not just stay with Foster who would be playing his natural position? His subtraction and Sutton's addition gives the club a fifth left-handed defender at the NHL level (or sixth if Taylor Chorney beats Jeff Petry for a spot in training camp). I'm convinced the Oilers would have been best served by waiting for a better deal or by keeping Foster on the team, but if the club was committed to ridding themselves of Foster, buying him out would have been better than the trade they made.
If Foster had been bought out, it would have cost the Oilers a total of $1,200,000 spread over two years. Andy Sutton will instead cost the Oilers $2,250,000 this year. Using that budget of $1,050,000, could the Oilers have gotten better value (and a better fit) by buying out Foster and shopping for another defenseman in free agency? I think they that they probably could have. I don't have anyone specific in mind, but one guy who's still available today is Nick Boynton, and he would likely come very cheap. He provides the Oilers with the physical presence and nastiness that they get from Sutton and his recent results, while not exactly good (there's a reason he's still available), are a little bit better than Sutton's. He's also comfortable playing the right side, which would help the Oilers to keep each guy playing the position he's familiar with.
I know that Sutton might end up playing well for the Oilers, and I know that in the overall plan, this kind of deal is pretty much insignificant (the difference between winning and losing this year is not Sutton v. Foster v. Boynton), but this is one of those little moves that just rub me the wrong way because they make the team a little bit worse and a little bit less balanced than it was before. It's the kind of trade that Steve Tambellini will need to do a good job of when the team is trying to win. If it's not being done well now, I find that concerning.
53 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great take Scott. The team has a younger, better version of Sutton in Theo Peckham.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Depth physicality. Peckham can concentrate more on becoming an actual player. Also people who fight get hurt. Peckham is likely to miss 10 games.
Sutton had better years in Ottawa and on the Island.
It sets a marker for Teubert and Plante. No free job. You have to be better than Sutton.
So why not, “You have to be better than Foster”? Foster has also had better years than last year, is younger and so is probably a better candidate to bounce back, probably played better last year, takes far fewer penalties, and plays the right side, which is something the Oilers lack and also happens to correspond with the side that young prospects like Petry, Teubert, and Plante actually play.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 18, 2011 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Perhaps Renney had had enough of the Oilers being a soft team to play against? Foster was never going to help with that. I probably would have preferred Boyton as well, but who knows? Living in Ontario I got to see some of Sutton’s games with the Sens and he seemed to play pretty well. His game was simple and tough. He could be a spent force, or he could bounce back. Let’s hope he bounces back and gets dealt at the deadline…
Let’s hope he bounces back
Seems to be a management style.
Let’s hope he can play tougher minutes
Let’s hope he can play in that role he’s never played in before
Let’s hope he can bounce back
Let’s hope that he can perform at age 36-39 like he did when he was 29.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It would seem to me that the 28 yr old with the horrible season is more likely to ‘bounce back’ than than 36 yr old.
Even if he is ‘soft’.
Perhaps, but Sutton had a significant injury at the start of last season. Observers also noted he didn’t seem to fit well into Carlyle’s system. If the Oilers’ pro scouts beleive that the injury is the reason for his poor play and that he may do better under Renney’s system, then I can understand the trade.
If he can be the player I saw play for Ottawa for one more season, the player that dished out 197 hits and 204 blocked shots, plus another 24 hits and 17 blocked shots with only 4 give aways in 6 playoff games, that would be good for the Oilers. He had a reasonable 107 PIMs that year. That Sutton would project to be the team leader in hits AND blocked shots. He would do it with about half the PIM of a Peckham
They made this trade beleiving that last season was an aberration . If they are wrong, its one more example of poor pro scouting and some heads need to role.
BTW – I wonder what’s a better predictor of future performance, the previous season or a 3 year average of the preceding 3 seasons?
I think you’d look at 3 years, but I don’t know if I’d average it.
There’s maybe a 5 year window where players remain at or around the same level of ability, 26-31. Using an average in that period makes sense.
But when you are talking about older or younger players, I think you want to look at the data, but you focus on the trend, rather than an average.
I’d expect a 33 year old Sutton to be better than a 36 year old Sutton, so why put more emphasis on his data from 3 years ago than his data from last year?
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Fair enough, but it also seems risky to me to put all the weight on the previous season. There were some good numbers in his 2009/2010 stats. It would be hard, I think, to argue the Oilers would be hurt by laying 110 more hits on the opposing players this season, and 89 more they actually felt as opposed to the ones Foster dished out.
He might not make it back to his 2009/2010 level this season, and the balance of probabilities may be tilted against it given his age, but to view his time with the Ducks as the only indicator seems narrow-minded to me. Even if you took his last 2 seasons and weighted them 40-60 the potential for a positive contribution goes way up.
What does that say we should expect for Ryan Smyth? 47points or less? Less than 25 hits? All 82 games played, even though he missed significant time 2 of the past 4 years?
He was passed on the depth chart on Long Island by some not good players. Except for one big hit, he was absolutely abused in the playoffs with the Senators.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 19, 2011 3:04 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I like the move. It’s one thing to get beaten on the scoreboard and another to get beaten up physically. That game agaist the Rangers one Sunday afternoon when I was already nursing a bad hangover was brutal to watch and reason reason for the move. The kids got manhandled, Smid got (sucker)punched out and the whole thing has the potential to destroy a team’s confidence for weeks.
I know a lot of people hate the Eager and Hordichuk signings for statistical reasons. At least those guys won’t be killing penalties or playing against Iginla’s line. Them and Sutton will prevent guys like Burrows from taking runs at Dubnyk for fear of getting his entire hand bitten off, and will paste guys against the glass who take runs at Hall and the ’Nuge. With Gilbert and Whitney already on our back end, we could use the nastiness upgrade.
If Sedin-Sedin-Burrows are out against Eager – O’Marra – Hordichuk, Dubnyk won’t have to worry about getting run, the puck will be in the net before anyone can run him.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Six of one...
Yeah, but how is that any worse than Reddox, Fraser, and Jacques? A fourth line is a fourth line, this one will at least put some guys on their ass, albeit after the puck is in our net.
by John Chambers on Jul 18, 2011 7:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I like the Eager deal since I think he’ll be a pretty good fourth line player, but I don’t have much time for Hordichuk – he’s both not a good hockey player and not a very good enforcer. Sutton is hard to swallow too because it’s so hard to hide a guy on the blue-line, even if he is on the third pairing. I agree that it’s great to not get beaten up physically, but when doing so hampers the team’s ability to win on the scoreboard, I think the team has its priorities backwards.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 1:53 AM MDT up reply actions
That gives the impression that Burrows has never been punched in the face.
Guys like that don’t give a shit if you punch them in the face. In fact they want you to in order to give their team a chance on the PP.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
During the season, Randy Carlyle tried his best to protect Sutton at even strength
Were they trying to protect Sutton, or was his defense partner the focus of his particular role on the ice?
He spent his season playing along side Sbisa (sophomore) and Fowler (18 year old rookie) over 75% of the time at even strength. I don’t think much of Sutton, but I can’t help but think putting Sutton, a vetran of over 600 NHL games on the ice with them in mostly offensive zone situations had a lot more to do with wanting Fowler and Sbisa out of the defensive zone and away from the opposition’s top players than it is an attempt to hide Sutton.
Those two got playoff time. Sutton did not.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sheldon Brookbank got playoff time over Sutton.
Let that sink in.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Andy Sutton on his year
"It was the worst year of my career," he said. "It was frustrating. Really, I think I just didn’t really recover after I had the hand surgery. I felt like I was constantly slipping down the mountain, couldn’t regain my footing and lost a lot of confidence. It sort of left me not playing like myself."
It was also noted he struggled in Carlyle’s system, whatever the heck that was.
Let’s not write him off just yet.
That’s great, but it’s Sheldon Fucking Brookbank.
I get Sutton had a bad year in large part because he was hurt, and if he was 32 you could maybe expect a bounce back. This stuff doesn’t get easier as you get older, especially once injuries happen.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I do find his attitude here encouraging. He seems motivated to work hard to get back to his previous form. I’m just not all that optimistic he’ll get there. He’s 36, and is dealing with injuries, and was never any more than a 4/5 in his prime to begin with. That said, I acknowledge (and hope!) that he could be much better than I’m expecting him to be.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions
From the same article:
The redeeming thing is Sutton largely took responsbility for his poor play all season and continued to engage with his teammates in the dressing room.
"I couldn’t get a leg up," he said. "I couldn’t regain my footing after the surgery. It’s tough to come back from stuff, this year in particular for whatever reason. Next year I’ll come in refreshed and refocused and also I’ll have the knowledge and awareness with what to expect from the team and what’s expected of me."
Do you have a link to that article?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Andy Sutton hit parade
Have you seen this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRPC3itAQU8
He’s going to have to learn to bend his knees a little more because of the new rules, but man, players are not going to want to come into Edmonton’s end of the ice with thier heads down because he will destroy them. 2 of the 10 appear to be against the Thrashers so those Jets-Oilers games could be interesting…
It’s quite clear that you value hitting a lot more than I do. I’m of the opinion that it’s better to have a physical player than a guy who’s not physical, but you need players who can do that effectively, and it’s my opinion that “big hits” are generally way overvalued. With Sutton, the hitting comes with a huge cost: he’s been among the twenty most penalized defensemen (in terms of penalties per minute of ice time) in each of the last four seasons. Whatever the team gains from having Sutton out there to intimidate is being given back and then some by all those penalties.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Sutton's big hits are very gratifying for the home team
They also come at the cost of putting him wildly out of position — whether he connects or not — in a most Phaneufian way.
I won’t lie, it’s nice to have that intimidation threat and that “feel good” satisfaction that your team made the other team’s talented guy pay for dangling over the blueline. But Sutton carries such high risk, he needs to really fit the system to be effective, and as everyone points out his age is a flag. He had a surprisingly fine final season with the Islanders, but it felt like lightning in a bottle and I was relieved they cut bait.
Can’t complain one bit about his attitude though. Hope he does well.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
He is degrading extremely quickly and his defensive ability is in question yet you think “hits” are worth a look.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 19, 2011 3:06 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
He MAY be degrading extremely quickly. I am not as quick to write him off as you appear to be, that’s all.
I beleive opposing forwards have been crossing the Oilers blueline with little or no fear for the past few seasons, and that’s part of the reason they are getting killed defensively. Opposing forwards can come in full tilt and other than Peckham, no one is going to make them pay for it. Sutton has the potential to change that.
Sutton was also in the top 10 in hits and blocked shots in 2009/2010. He was the only defenceman in the league in the top 10 in both categories. If we’re going to love in for Gilbert for his shot blocking, give Sutton a little credit as well.
His give away to take away ratio was poor in the regular season, but he completely turned that around in the playoffs. Also, his plus/minus was -2 in the playoffs, the same as Volchenkov and Phillips. He played the second highest number of ES minutes for the Sens d in the playoffs, meaning the coach trusted him out there, enought that he got more minutes overall than Volchenkov.
He was -3 in 54 games with the Islanders, which was right in line with the only two defencemen that averaged more minutes than he did and played close to the same number of games. He averaged 20 minutes a night for the season.
His 178 minutes of TOI short handed would have put him at the top of the Islanders PK minutes for d-men. And considering the PK minute eaters the Sens had, he likely did put up most of those minutes with the Islanders. He did this on a brutal Islanders team that was 27th in the league but 12 in PK.
So, some good recent, although not immediate, history. An injury that may explain at least part of the drop off. Brings something in his style of play the team sorely lacks, in my view at least, especially after watching Eastern teams regularly for the last 10 years. So, yeah, I think his hits are worth a look because watching the fucking Oilers I had forgotten what a big hit looked like.
I don’t know how much he’ll be able to respond next year, but from having watched him a lot with the Islanders I’m convinced what happened to him this past season is very representative of his game. He needs to be completely healthy to be an effective defender. Once he’s a little banged up or even just tired his game falls apart totally.
In 09-10 for the Islanders he was best early in the season. A groin injury pulled him out for six games at one point and he was never the same again that season. We saw his trademark hits along the boards in at least every 2nd game early on, but so rarely later in the season. He started to miss more and more of them, leading to good chances and at least one goal I can remember. And much of that happened in crucial moments towards the end of the games, also for Ottawa in the playoffs that season on this horrible play in OT2 for example.
So, you could even notice that tendency of his game to slowly fall apart within the games. It often seemed much more sloppy to me in the 3rd period. Most of his bad/unlucky decisions or other stupid stuff indeed came late in the games. The strangest things of all was when he played the Islanders with Ottawa and got so frustrated late in the game he even went for no obvious reason after Frans Nielsen, who’s not exactly an agitator…
As said, no idea how much he’s recovered and what’s still left in his game two years later, but if he’ll stay healthy and in a good shape through training camp I can see him play some effective hockey for a couple of months maybe. Later in the season, due to the injury risk, etc. I doubt it.
I wasn’t trying to defend Sutton or suggest that he’s a better player than Sbisa. In fact, I’ve been one of his biggest critics over the years whenever it was suggested the Oilers bring him in one way or another, and I generally think he’s scum.
My post was just as it read. I just think that if you’re trying to shelter/protect a player, giving him a rookie defense partner seems like a strange way to do it. But then again, Ottawa did the same thing with him by having him on the ice with Karlsson 70% of the time.
It seems a lot more likely to me that both Carlyle and whichever one of the 2465798 head coaches Ottawa has had in the last few years saw him as a vertan partner to pair up with their rookie defensemen to help with their development. The fact that both were miserable failures is another point all together, but not what I was commenting on.
That seems like a fair distinction to me. At least at first Sutton was getting pretty easy minutes, but he was getting them because he was part of the shelter for the young guys rather than being intentionally sheltered himself. The poor play probably shifted him into the “needing shelter” category by the end of the year, but the distinction you raise is a good one to keep in mind.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2011 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Sheltering, or complementing?
Just speculating, but one reason they might have paired him with a Fowler or Karlsson type in his previous stops is he’s the stay-at-home type that you hope can cover for a more offensive/wanderlust partner’s forays. He had a strangely effective partnership on Long Island with Jack Hillen, who is small and pushed around, but a mobile puck mover.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The bottom line on Sutton is the Oilers saw him push them around a couple of times and they just had to get him some day. It doesn’t matter that he probably can’t play very well anymore and likely topped out as a #4 in his prime anyway.
So I think we can add battered spouse syndrome to the Oilers mgmt’s long list of intellectual/emotional problems.
by RiversQ on Jul 18, 2011 7:48 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
They didn’t learn from Patrick O’Sullivan.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ok, now even I feel bad about that one.
by RiversQ on Jul 18, 2011 8:05 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I know what you meant. I was kidding.
Jerk.
by RiversQ on Jul 18, 2011 8:42 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Taken own it’s own, I wasn’t sure
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 19, 2011 3:09 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I am on the fence with ST. However it seems he went for the character of the goons as much as anything.
I agree with that, the team being so young. I feel trouble maker type players or the messed up low functioning types – Avery and Torres etc, cause as much harm to their own team as others. Nobody likes having to be around poor decision making and/or disruptive people all the time.
I am not sure about Eager that way, but he can play hockey a bit. Hordichuk and Sutton seem like normal guys, professional and functioning, which is a better influence. And at least while lousy players, they are legit NHL’ers, unlike the nice but simple Macintyre and the tough guys that couldn’t/wouldn’t fight.
It’s pretty clear winning is still not scheduled on the master plan of league domination. If for the 2012-13 season he doesn’t ice a roster of good players he’s out of excuses as far as I am concerned. One more mulligan.
Another mulligan? You want to give this management team a pass on four straight bottom ten finishes? Do you honestly believe "and then BAM! Stanley Cup! "?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 19, 2011 3:09 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I am forfeiting a mulligan because I don’t think there is a choice, they are going to tank it again. I also have no faith that even when winning is part of the plan that they can get the players we need, or even recognize them. Lowe did build a good team once but likely by as much luck as anything given what happened after.
I am more of the leaning that you always try to win. I also believe that there are really only a handful of players that are beyond reach in a trade, so a team can be built that way too. Of course that takes some skills and savvy. Oh oh.
It is going to kill me when they screw up the next phase of this thing.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Copper & Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Oilers Schedule
Last 5 Games
@
Vancouver
|
Sat 04/07 | L 0 - 3 |
|
Anaheim
|
Thu 04/05 | OT - L 2 - 3 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Mon 04/02 | L 0 - 2 |
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/01 | W 2 - 1 |
|
Los Angeles
|
Fri 03/30 | L 1 - 4 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Devils look to eliminate Rangers in Game 6; Hal Gill’s broken tibia (Playoff Puck Previews)
- Conan O’Brien joins long list of LA media that don’t really know what’s going on with the Kings
- For Los Angeles Kings, when does rest become rust for Stanley Cup Final?
- Dominik Hasek wants NHL return; Tortorella on Game 6; Nash to Boston? (Puck Headlines)
- Marek Vs. Wyshynski Radio: Game Show Friday, Bobby Holik, Game 6 preview, NHL ratings debate
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Simon Gagne enjoying LA Kings' success, returns to practice after concussion absence
- Gagne back at practice, enjoying Kings' success
- First-place Knights go sight-seeing while awaiting Memorial Cup final
- NHL Network and NHL.com unveil comprehensive coverage plans for the 2012 Stanley Cup Final
- Canadiens hire Rick Dudley as assistant GM
