Canucks vs. Bruins Scoring Chances - Game 4
by Derek Zona on Jun 8, 2011 10:15 PM MDT
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One positive with Thornton on the ice was Peverley playing on the third line rather than the fourth. Kelly and Ryder were both very good. If I were Julien, I'd think long and hard about moving Peverley into Horton's spot in the lineup and putting Seguin back on the third line with Kelley and Ryder. Peverley played the toughs in Atlanta and can handle the minutes - Seguin will one day.
Even though the Versus crew was convinced Tyler Seguin would join Krejci and Lucic, Claude Julien stuck with his closest advisers here at The Copper & Blue and it paid off. Not only was Peverley a nice fit on that line, his presence meant two good faceoff men at the top.
Scoring Chances - Vancouver at Boston, 6.8.2011
NHL Game Number 30414
Team Totals, Boston in Gold
| Period | Totals | EV | PP | 5v3 PP | SH | 5v3 SH | ||||||
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 16 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 4v4 chances do do not count as even strength time on ice. See here for an explanation.
Scoring Chances by Player - Boston
| # | Player | EV | PP | SH | ||||||
| 11 | Gregory Campbell | 10:49 | 1 | 3 | 0:59 | 1 | 0 | 6:17 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Tomas Kaberle | 12:45 | 3 | 3 | 4:02 | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Milan Lucic | 11:38 | 5 | 4 | 3:16 | 2 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Tyler Seguin | 7:48 | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Daniel Paille | 10:54 | 1 | 3 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 4:49 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Andrew Ference | 14:43 | 5 | 2 | 3:03 | 0 | 0 | 3:23 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Shawn Thornton | 9:07 | 1 | 3 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Chris Kelly | 9:41 | 2 | 0 | 0:14 | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Mark Recchi | 9:54 | 1 | 1 | 3:41 | 2 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Tim Thomas | 43:11 | 10 | 8 | 7:11 | 4 | 0 | 9:38 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Zdeno Chara | 15:25 | 2 | 3 | 3:09 | 1 | 0 | 6:10 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Patrice Bergeron | 12:27 | 2 | 1 | 3:38 | 3 | 0 | 1:42 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | Dennis Seidenberg | 14:55 | 2 | 3 | 4:02 | 3 | 0 | 6:51 | 0 | 0 |
| 46 | David Krejci | 12:07 | 5 | 4 | 4:06 | 3 | 0 | 0:48 | 0 | 0 |
| 49 | Rich Peverley | 10:09 | 3 | 3 | 2:06 | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | Adam McQuaid | 12:28 | 3 | 3 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | Johnny Boychuk | 16:09 | 5 | 2 | 0:06 | 1 | 0 | 2:39 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 12:50 | 2 | 1 | 0:14 | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | 0 | 0 |
| 73 | Michael Ryder | 9:17 | 4 | 1 | 3:19 | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
Boston - Best and Worst
Top ES Forward: Tyler Seguin, Michael Ryder +3
Bottom ES Forward: Gregory Campbell, Daniel Paille, Shawn Thornton -2
Top ES Defenseman: Andrew Ference, Johnny Boychuk +3
Bottom ES Defenseman: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg -1
There are some thing to worry about in here. Thornton's physical presence may be a boon to the team, but at the same time, he's -5 in about 15 minutes of even strength play. He's a drain on that fourth line when it comes to actual hockey.
Ference and Boychuk continue to get the good matchups away from the Sedins and continue to make the most of that time.
Michael Ryder is +6 in chance differential over the last three games.
Scoring Chances by Player - Vancouver
| # | Player | EV | PP | SH | ||||||
| 1 | Roberto Luongo | 33:17 | 7 | 8 | 6:00 | 0 | 2 | 4:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kevin Bieksa | 17:43 | 4 | 4 | 3:43 | 0 | 2 | 4:05 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Keith Ballard | 14:54 | 2 | 5 | 0:19 | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Christian Ehrhoff | 16:23 | 1 | 2 | 5:33 | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Sami Salo | 12:00 | 3 | 5 | 3:33 | 0 | 2 | 2:19 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Raffi Torres | 9:53 | 2 | 4 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Alexandre Burrows | 12:39 | 3 | 1 | 1:46 | 0 | 2 | 3:25 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Tanner Glass | 6:36 | 0 | 1 | 0:22 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Ryan Kesler | 11:34 | 1 | 4 | 6:37 | 0 | 1 | 1:36 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Chris Higgins | 11:04 | 1 | 4 | 1:10 | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Mason Raymond | 12:08 | 1 | 4 | 1:10 | 0 | 2 | 1:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Daniel Sedin | 13:48 | 4 | 1 | 8:06 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Alexander Edler | 15:45 | 6 | 3 | 6:13 | 0 | 2 | 3:44 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Manny Malhotra | 8:05 | 2 | 2 | 0:22 | 0 | 1 | 2:33 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Henrik Sedin | 13:46 | 4 | 1 | 8:06 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Cory Schneider | 9:32 | 1 | 2 | 3:02 | 0 | 2 | 3:11 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Jannik Hansen | 9:06 | 3 | 3 | 0:07 | 0 | 2 | 2:42 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Victor Oreskovich | 8:29 | 1 | 2 | 0:15 | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | Maxim Lapierre | 9:44 | 2 | 3 | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | Andrew Alberts | 9:51 | 0 | 1 | 0:00 | 0 | 2 | 2:52 | 0 | 0 |
Vancouver - Best and Worst
Top ES Forward: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin +3
Bottom ES Forward: Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins, Mason Raymond -3
Top ES Defenseman: Alexander Edler +3
Bottom ES Defenseman: Keith Ballard -3
The Sedins finally get back on track and generate a bunch of chances and win the battle convincingly, but Kesler continues to struggle. The "Kevin Bieksa for the Conn Smythe" campaign by the folks on HNIC has disappeared, as has his effectiveness since losing Dan Hamhuis as his playing partner. He'll still get a large paycheck from someone, but a Hamhuis/Bieksa WOWY is in order to figure out what Bieksa is really worth.
Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances
*Click to enlarge
There is more to worry about for Claude Julien and the chart shows the reason. Without last change in Vancouver, he's going to be hard-pressed to keep Bergeron on the ice against the Sedins. Just like the Tampa series, the Krejci line is losing the battle against the Canucks top line. Kelly might have the ability to play against the Sedins, but Ryder and Seguin are not the right guys for that matchup.
Keith Ballard should be employed as a deterrent on all teams. "Don't hit people in the head, because your replacement is Keith Ballard and your team will lose."
Scoring Chances by Period, Time and Game State
| Team | Period | Time | Note | BOS | VAN | State | ||||||||||
| VAN | 1 | 18:59 | Sedin | 17 | 30 | 33 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | 33 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 1 | 17:08 | Krejci | 17 | 21 | 30 | 46 | 49 | 55 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 1 | 15:04 | Sedin | 17 | 30 | 33 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 1 | 14:52 | Sedin | 17 | 30 | 33 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 1 | 13:40 | Marchand | 21 | 28 | 30 | 37 | 55 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 1 | 10:19 | Lucic | 12 | 17 | 30 | 46 | 54 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 40 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 1 | 8:47 | Ehrhoff | 21 | 28 | 30 | 37 | 55 | 63 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 1 | 8:02 | Goal - Peverley | 17 | 30 | 33 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 23 | 40 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 1 | 1:24 | Lapierre | 12 | 17 | 30 | 46 | 54 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 36 | 40 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 1 | 0:53 | Ryder | 17 | 21 | 30 | 46 | 55 | 73 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 36 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 2 | 13:43 | Torres | 11 | 12 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 40 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 2 | 12:08 | Krejci | 12 | 17 | 30 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 41 | 5v4 | |
| BOS | 2 | 9:46 | Paille | 11 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 30 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 2 | 8:49 | Goal - Ryder | 12 | 19 | 23 | 30 | 54 | 73 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 38 | 41 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 2 | 6:32 | Goal - Marchand | 30 | 33 | 37 | 44 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 33 | 4v4 | ||
| VAN | 2 | 3:30 | Sedin | 11 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 30 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 36 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 3 | 18:03 | Bergeron | 12 | 28 | 30 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 36 | 5v4 | |
| BOS | 3 | 16:22 | Goal - Peverley | 17 | 21 | 30 | 46 | 49 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 3 | 15:52 | Ryder | 12 | 19 | 23 | 30 | 54 | 73 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 5v5 |
| VAN | 3 | 13:02 | Ehrhoff | 11 | 12 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 54 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 27 | 35 | 38 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 3 | 9:13 | Higgins | 17 | 30 | 33 | 44 | 46 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 35 | 4v4 | ||
| BOS | 3 | 6:34 | Seguin | 19 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 44 | 63 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 33 | 35 | 38 | 5v5 |
| BOS | 3 | 4:31 | Bergeron | 12 | 17 | 30 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 6 | 27 | 35 | 36 | 41 | 5v4 | |
| BOS | 3 | 3:25 | Ryder | 11 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 55 | 73 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 23 | 35 | 5v4 | |
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I’m starting to wonder if we haven’t been overrating the Canucks and somewhat, by extension, the Western Conference. JLikens had already touched on how the conferences were much closer in possession metrics than on their head-to-head records, and I know this series is anecdotical, but still.
Boston isn’t exactly the best club in the East, especially in terms of carrying the play, yet we’re just not seeing the ’Nucks dominate like I expected them to. Granted, when you keep allowing one goal every fourth chance (or more!) it changes things, but I would expect the Canucks to be able to do something at least remotely resembling what Tampa did, even if their goaltending lets them down too.
Yeah, I’ve been wondering something like this too. The same thing happened last year in the Cup finals, I thought Chicago would walk all over Philly.
One thing that is true is that Vancouver has been, in a sense, riding the percentages. They were one of the best ES shooting % teams, they had one of the best ES SV%, they were the best PP S% teams, and had one of the best PP SV%. Having two excellent goalies is obviously what’s responsible for the great SV%, but more of Vancouver’s success was bound up in percentages than, say, Chicago last year or Detroit in 2008.
Yes, but Boston has been riding the percentages even more. Vancouver had the 2nd-highest regular-season 5-on-5 PDO in the league, but Boston was in first place and it was by a decent margin. Vancouver had the second-best ES Save%… Boston was first. Vancouver had the 7th-best ES Sh%, but Boston was 4th (though that’s a virtual tie really).
OTOH, Vancouver had the best outshooting-score-tied metrics in the league. Boston was abovewater, but they weren’t world-beaters either and were well behind several other clubs in puck possession, including all three clubs that they eliminated. And not unexpectedly, Montreal outchanced and outshot them with the score tied, and Tampa pretty much just rolled them everywhere but the crease. Montreal and Tampa were good clubs, but I wouldn’t have thought they’d compare with Vancouver.
Vancouver’s percentages are probably a bit skewed because of their crappy division (no offense). It doesn’t make a huge difference, but I imagine it makes a slight difference.
Boston’s team changed quite a bit at the deadline, I wonder how they did after that.
The Northeast is supposed to be crap as well, remember. ;)
At the very least the Bruins got to play 6 games each against Toronto and the goaltending disaster that was Ottawa. And they had a 7-goal game and an 8-goal game against Montreal, normally a strong goaltending club.
But in terms of possession metrics, the leafs weren’t a horrible team, they just got buried by horrible goaltending early on.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
i’m just talking in terms of possession metrics here. iirc montreal was good, buffalo was good, ottawa was surprisingly not awful, and toronto was pretty bad. whereas in the NW we have a very good calgary team, a bad edmonton team, a bad minnesota team, and a bad colorado team.
I do agree the Northeast-minus-Boston was much stronger than the Northwest-minus-Vancouver in puck possession, but how does that factor in with whether their percentages were skewed? Montreal and Ottawa both had utterly godawful shooting percentages and the Sens’ goaltending was even more catastrophic than either Colorado or Edmonton, both of which would tend to skew Boston’s PDO upward.
They played the 2 worst teams in the NHL 12 times, that’s going to help your numbers.
They went 9-2-1 vs Colorado and Edmonton, outscoring them 36-25 (9-0-1 35-19 until the last 2 games against Edmonton when they had everything sealed up).
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
That being said, Vancouver did well enough ouside their division to win the presidents trophy if you pro-rate their numbers so it’s not like they are all smoke and mirrors.
I just think the actual gap between them and the rest of the league was a lot smaller than others did.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Agreed, but on paper, Boston is arguably the weakest club they’ve faced to date, at least in terms of puck possession. It’s perplexing to me that they don’t do better. I’d have expected the Canucks to handle the Bruins at least as well as the Sharks, and to do at least as well as Tampa did against Boston.
It’s the gap between the Canucks and the 4-6thish best club in the East and what that means about the gap between the East and the West that I’m wondering about.
In terms of possession metric maybe. But I dont know how much of that is coaching/playing style and how much of that is skill of players. Because on paper that Boston team is a very strong one with some very good players. I am surprised by thier poor/middling possession numbers
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Frankly, I don’t get the whole Boston-strong-on-paper story either. Maybe I’m just missing something gigantic, maybe it’s just my bias talking, maybe I’m just not comparing them to the right standard but they strike me as a fairly shallow club. Not bad by any means, but not the elite club they’re billed as.
Bergeron is ridiculously good, but they’re having him carry two wingers in some approximation of a second line so that they have two lines that don’t get destroyed (not unlike Tanguay did in Calgary before his trade to Montreal), the Krejci line is a fine second line that they’re using as their top unit, and their defensive depth drops precipitously past Chara and then some more past Seidenberg. As Derek points out, Boychuk is playing significant minutes for them and he wasn’t good enough for the 29th best team to use him as a D-man.
I like Marchand, and Seguin will probably grow into a great player eventually but right now he’s not. How is that a very strong club on paper, especially on D?
Derek’s comment was rhetoric, and it’s very likely that either Colorado was misusing Boychuk or he has gotten better. I think he’s an average or slightly below average D man.
Boston’s been weird all playoffs, their corsi has been really excellent but their shot differential hasn’t been. I wish Gabe (or someone else) would put up the score tied numbers more regularly.
Well here is the thing,
Marchand somewhat surprisingly with Bergeron and Recchi has formed a formidable shutdown line which is able to outscore the opposition’s top line. I don’t know how they are doing it but if you look at it, that is a very good shut down line. The krejci –Lucic- Horton line was one of the best second lines in the nhl. They have ridiculous amount of talent and size and decent speed too. Now with Peverley, they are less good offensively but a little better defensively and Krejci is good enough to spark offense from that line. They can essentially chew up other team’s second lines. That brings up to Ryder and Kelly with Seguin. Seguin is not that good and is a liability, but that line again is good enough to beat the opposition 3rd line on most nights. 4th lines don’t matter much in playoffs and Boston doesn’t have a decent one.
When it comes to defense, I agree they are a little thin, But there is Chara, Kaberle and Siedenberg who are legit top 4 d-men. Plus Chara is better than anyone that Vancouver has to offer and can somewhat in part make up for the lack of d depth. Now with Hamhuis gone, Van’s D doesn’t look that good either. Ehrhoff, Bieksa, Edler and Salo while are legit top 4 d men, but are inconsistent defensively and are more offensive minded. Ballard is having a terrible year and looks to have lost his confidence. While Vancouver’s forwards might be/are a bit better than Boston’s, remember this is just a 7 game series and Boston stacks decently against them. So Boston beating the Nucks is not really an upset as it would have been if someone like TB or Montreal would beat them.
P.S. As good a goalie Luongo is, Thomas might just be better. So yeah there that’s why I think Boston is the best in the East and will not be surprised if they win the Cup.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I’m just not seeing it.
The Krejci line hasn’t really been outplaying anyone the entire playoffs (IIRC they were matched up against Plekanec vs. Montreal, Lecavalier vs. Tampa, or the Sedins here and ended up in the red for chances on all three). That line is especially vulnerable to puck-moving D that can foil their dump-and-chase. Bergeron has been great, and Boston’s saving grace, but I don’t see the Kelly line as a premium third-line unit either.
The Bruins’ D would look a lot better if Kaberle was actually a top-4 D for them, but he just hasn’t been that (somewhat to my surprise, TBH). That leaves the Bs with Seidenberg has their #2 D-man and a second pairing of Boychuk-Ference. Not precisely very deep.
It’s not that Boston is a bad club, but I just can’t fathom how they can get rated as the best club in the East. It seems very clear to me that they’re not, and their series against Montreal and especially Tampa really cemented that in my mind. Which is why I’m surprised Vancouver isn’t doing better.
David Krejci is leading the playoffs in scoring. He must be doing something right.
He’s long been high on my list of most underrated players in the game. Still not getting that many kudos when you consider the current circumstances.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
I absolutely adore Krejci. And he is one of my fav players in the league.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
finally...
Just reading through this and going nuts at all the ‘Krejci second line’ stuff… he’s been the best forward and would be the second choice for Conn Smythe if Boston wins (Thomas is looking to be a lock IF that happens). He was awesome in both losing efforts and, last year, when they lost Krejci with a 3-0 series lead they lost 4-3. Maybe the rest of his line is second line stuff but he definitely is all world in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and finals. He has more points than BOTH the twins. Thank you Bruce and Sum! Even when he lost Horton, his line kept rolling with 2 goals last night.
are they red in chances? who tracked it? they were way up in corsi.
they’re not the best team in the east and i don’t think anyone around here would say that. but goalies do count for something and they have the best one.
Good goalies are negative drivers of Corsi.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Who in the East is better than Bruins?
Which team are you willing to wager will beat them a series of 7?
Maybe a healthy Pittsburgh, but with both Crosby and Malkin out and the Philly goaltending, I dont see how Bruins werent the best.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
philadelphia? tampa? a healthy pittsburgh?
boston has been PDOing out of their minds in these playoffs
Ok I already conceded to a healthy Pittsburgh, but Boston matches upto the others.
Boston were better than TB in the regukar season and are now too.
Philly has outPDO’d itself due to extremely shitty goaltending. And that is a major reason why Boston gets the edge over them.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Tampa out-possessioned Boston to an absurd degree, matched their record despite atrocious goaltending at the beginning of the year (we’re talking well below .900), and absolutely rolled them everywhere but the crease in the playoffs — and that’s largely because TB’s goaltending failed. I’m just not seeing how TB isn’t a better club than Boston.
Oh, for an ‘edit post’ function… My apologies, I do get carried away sometimes.
“To an absurd degree” is obviously overstating the case, but Tampa’s possession metrics were nevertheless much superior to Boston’s.
This Tampa Bay team sounds amazing! They should’ve really made Boston and Tampa Bay play in the playoffs this year in a 7 game series so we’d know who is better….
That’s probably an exaggeration if we’re talking about seven game series. Usually (but of course not always), the better team wins.
As for this discussion, I think Boston is probably in the range of best in the East. We’ve been over this before but I think that you seriously underrate the degree to which their goaltending is better than the goaltenders of the other top teams. I think they’re a bit better than both Philadelphia and Tampa because of this, but these teams are all close.
As for this series, I think that Vancouver is still the far better club. A couple of bad games are just a couple of bad games. Here’s hoping for two more :)
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 9, 2011 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Becasue of the goaltending.
Last time I checked that was a part of a club too.
In all the advance statistics these days, we tend to forget that some goalies are just that much better than the competition. And that can give a club a superior edge over the competition.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
by SumOil on Jun 9, 2011 11:58 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Some goalies are better than their competition, and Thomas is very good, but I don’t think what we’re seeing from him is his true talent level either. He’s been literally historic this year. I have trouble imagining that’s not a performance peak. Goaltending matters, but the extent we’ve been discussing would make “finding an elite goalie” much more important to a team’s success than “building an elite group of skaters”.
Besides, keep in mind Montreal and Tampa both actually outscored Boston in their series.
I agree with you. Thomas has hit some sort of a peak, and maybe having elite ‘team’ better than having elite goaltender. But in 2 of the last three years, his sv% was higher than .930. Meaning that other team is scoring on less than 7% of thier shots.
He may not continue that next season or ever, its not like this came out of nowwhere. Ths season he set a record for sv% in a single season and his post season sv% is within points of his regular season sv%. Furthermore, his post season sv% is almost identical to his last season post-season sv%. He may not be able to continue this for much longer, but he has been the best goalie in the Nhl for the better part of the last 3 years in combination with the post season.
His performance in the playoffs is not an anomaly but more of a trend how much ever close to the end it might be.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Agreed.
Here’s the thing though: good as he has been, Boston has been outscored by two of the three teams they faced so far, and this despite in-series injuries to Montreal and the failure of Tampa’s heretofore excellent goaltending. I’m thinking back and I don’t recall that they won a single game in either of those series by more than a single non-empty-net goal.
That’s one reason I don’t view them as the best club in the East. The anomaly isn’t really in nets, where I expect them to shine. Boston’s percentages have been great at both ends of the ice, not just in nets. And it’s their shooting percentage that I view as the more unsustainable of the two. They were 4th-worst in the league at it last year, so it’s not like this is some sort of special team talent.
on the other hand they have terrible power play. So in a sense thier luck in the ES sh% is making up for terrible luck on PP sh%.
I understand that they were outscored by Montreal and TB and I dont really have a point to counter that, but i dont think that is due to the team lacking skill. Maybe they were not prepared or were outcoahced for a few games, but they hung in there and won. It wasnt like the Montreal’s run of last season where noone gave them a chance and they still won. I am sure that Boston was the favorite in almost every series.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
They were the favorite based on their record and goal-differential, but their very high PDO factors into that. Besides, Tampa’s “raw” record was identical even though they were forced to shore up their abysmal goaltending halfway through the season.
(Boston were nominally underdogs vs. Philly, but Philly decided to be idiots about their goaltending.)
I’m not saying this is anything like Montreal’s run, I think they are a good club. I’m just saying they’re not the best club in the East. I think they’re more in the 4-to-6 range.
Ok i guess we should now agree to disagree!
While you point to thier exceptionally lucky sh% at ES. I think that a decent to good PP would have easily offset any losses caused if they were shooting at average level.
IMO Boston was the best team when Pittsburgh lost both Crosy and Malkin. I dont think I would get swayed. As I said I am biased for Boston. So I am probably being difficult here.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I’m a Habs fans. My bias is clearly the other way. ;)
Still, even if Boston is the top team in the East, at the very least there’s a handful of Eastern clubs that are very close to that level — and if the Canucks are not actually significantly better than the Bruins, it does mean that the top part of the two conferences, at least, are much closer together than I would’ve thought before.
Of course. Philly TB among others.
I also think that Nucks are hurting because of Hamhuis gone. Without him the D is in disarray. Without him its close but with him not as much. Thats what I think. And the fact that Nucks have 2 home games as opposed to 1 for Bruins might tilt this in thier favor.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I think the Canucks are the better team, I just thought they ought to be able to outplay the Bruins at least to the extent Tampa did, or something close to that, and outside of game 1 that hasn’t happened.
Maybe this is just a case of styles making the matchups.
Montreal and Tampa loved to attack on the rush and use their speed.
Vancouver has good speed from guys like Hansen and Kessel, but their bread and butter has been their game along the walls. It could be that this style of game compares favourably to Boston in that they are better equipped to slow down the cycle game of the Canucks.
I mean the only game I watched from start to finish with no distractions was game 1. Vancouver turned the 3rd period into a track meet by creating turnovers in the neutral zone. They got several good chances on the rush including a breakaway and eventually the odd man rush that lead to the goal. Since then though I’ve noticed a lot more cycling with Vancouver occasionally exploding through the zone to get an odd man rush for a scoring chance.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
+1
Becasue of the goaltending.
Last time I checked that was a part of a club too.
In all the advance statistics these days, we tend to forget that some goalies are just that much better than the competition. And that can give a club a superior edge over the competition.
Rec’d. Goalies don’t get near enough credit around here. All this talk about above-average PDO’s being a matter of luck, when the simplest explanation for it may well be “our goalie is better than your goalie; deal with it”.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Vancouver’s percentages are probably a bit skewed because of their crappy division (no offense).
No offence, no defence.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 11:27 AM MDT up reply actions 4 recs
Another thing to consider is that Tim Thomas has been excellent the first 4 games (his adventure in wonderland in game 2 notwithstanding).
With a lesser goaltender, how does game 3 playout if Vancouver scores on some of their earlier chances?
I think the problem with the Canucks is that their bread and butter (team defence and goaltending) has taken a huge hit. Luongo has had a pair of off games and their blueline went from the deepest in the league to shallow when they lost Hamhuis.
Ehrhoff, Edler, Bieksa, Hamhuis is a great top 4 and Salo is a great #5. But when you lose a solid #2 in Hamhuis and basically replace him with Salo and then add Alberts, Ballard, Rome into the mix, there’s a pretty significant drop off there.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I agree, without good goaltending Boston would not be winning. Of course, can you name me the team that has won the Stanley Cup with shitty goaltending? Luongo ain’t no slouch either and is an Olympic Gold Medalist. Goalies are a HUGE part of the team and everytime I hear the ’they’d lose if he wasn’t playing so well’ argument I laugh a bit.
Reminds me of Nagano when Hasek helped the Czechs win a gold and people said it wasn’t fair because he played so well… was he supposed to let goals in? Most championship teams are led by Goaltending..
Hell, for a good decade, Canada always had the top 3 goalies in the world at the World Juniors and kept winning gold. Was that unfair? Isn’t it the other teams job to get better goaltending? Also, Boston lost their TOP line forward in Horton to a 6th Dman – that is the greatest tradeoff in History as Horton has played awesome and has been an OT hero a few times.
Of course, can you name me the team that has won the Stanley Cup with shitty goaltending
Chicago Blackhawks!
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Detroit. Pittsburgh. Well I wouldn’t say “shitty”, but definitely non-elite goalies playing behind really good groups of good skaters has been the rule lately.
Boston is the reverse: a pretty good club with superhuman goaltending. They compare best to Carolina in 2006 I think. Of course Thomas’s inherent talent level is higher than Ward’s, but the parallels are pretty good, I think.
I think Boston defense much better than Carolina defense.
Plus they did not get this far due to luck.
I wouldnt say Pittsburh Detroit becasue thier average goaltenders gave above average performance. While last season stanley cup playoffs goaltending was probably the worst in a long long time.
You can almost say that either club would have won ‘despite’ the goaltending rather than with the help of the goaltender.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
When we say Pittsburgh, please tell me you’re not referring to Fleury as average:
Member of Team Canada’s Olympic Team
Stanley Cup Champion winning Goalie
First overall pic in 2003
I’m not even a fan of his but I’d KILL for such a shitty goalie on the Oil, dudes only 26
Daigle and Stefan were first overall picks, and being on great teams does not inherently make a player great. It’s the same logic as Osgood.
I don’t have access to ES numbers, but we’re talking about a guy who has a .912 save percentage over his last three seasons. That’s not horrible, and certainly something the Oilers could use given their goaltending sitation, but it’s certainly not elite either.
Fleury is seen as elite because “he wins”. It’s a reputation thing, not an ability thing.
Did you miss the Stanley Cup Winner and Member of Team Canada’s most recent Olympic team? I don’t recall Stefan or Daigle at the Olympics or hoisting Stanley Cups. However, I’m all ears for all the lousy players that were drafted first overall, won a stanley cup and were part of an Olympic Gold Medal hockey team by the age of 26. He was also voted Pittsburgh’s MVP THIS season.. I’m not even a fan but if he’s far from average.
At the risk of repeating myself, being on great teams does not inherently make a player great.
Like dawgbone said, at the actual stopping the puck part of the game, he’s actually pretty average.
Interesting how none of those 3 things actually have anything to do with his ability to stop the puck.
He’s pretty average at actually doing that part of the game, but he’s famous which seems to be worth a lot.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
but those are past laurels. He is nothing more than an average starter in the nhl today.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Like it or not, Fleury justified his draft position when he robbed Lidstrom with 8 seconds to go in 2009. I’m not saying it’s the correct line of thinking, but that’s how most around hockey view it.
by melancholyculkin on Jun 9, 2011 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions
No he just justified his existence as a goaltender.
The day you tell me that in a redraft of 2003 you would take Fleury 1st overall is the day he would have justified his selection as a 1st overall pick.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I agree with you. I think it was dumb of Pittsburgh to take Fleury over Staal in 2003, but I’m just saying that most around hockey think like our friend Czechboy. They see Fleury’s gold medal, that save on Lidstrom and his cup in 2009 and 2+2=elite goaltender.
by melancholyculkin on Jun 9, 2011 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions
In the ultimate game of small sample sizes, one could argue that Fleury’s #1 spot was bought and paid for with that save off of Lidstrom, which was with one second left, not eight btw. He won SCF Game 7 2-1, beating the defending champs in the toughest barn in the league.
Whether you buy the “clutch” narrative or not, he passed that harsh test with flying colours.
Ask a Pens fan about your redraft idea, it would be interesting to see how willing they would be to change history.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions
I saw a poll on a site once (think it might have been here even) that asked; “would you rather have Fleury and [insert 4th line center] or Eric Staal and Ty Conklin?” IIRC over 50% voted for Fleury and [journeyman 4C] over Eric Staal and Conklin, which I thought was very surprising.
by melancholyculkin on Jun 9, 2011 8:35 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, Pittsburgh fans would have every reason to be super confident with Conklin in net in the SCF.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2011 10:58 PM MDT up reply actions
I can see your point… the fact he keeps winning is probably all a fluke. Pittsburgh could’ve won the cup with anyone in net… any chump could’ve been Canada’s 3rd Goalie and that first overall thing was a total mistake. My bad… I feel so silly that I’m easily swayed by such trivial things. Clearly the stats prove otherwise…
I can see your point… the fact he keeps winning is probably all a fluke. Pittsburgh could’ve won the cup with anyone in net
Nobody said it was a fluke, but Fleury is an average goaltender. He plays on a good team, but that doesn’t change his averageness. I would argue that you could replace Fleury with Niemi or Crawford and Pittsburgh still wins.
any chump could’ve been Canada’s 3rd Goalie
I’m not entirely sure how being the third string goaltender for Team Canada proves anything. He had little to no chance of seeing any action when he was chosen, and he had no influence over Canada winning.
that first overall thing was a total mistake
Yes. Yes it was.
by melancholyculkin on Jun 9, 2011 9:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Um…
can you name me the team that has won the Stanley Cup with shitty goaltending?
When we say Pittsburgh, please tell me you’re not referring to Fleury as average… [he’s a] Stanley Cup Champion winning Goalie
That seems a bit… circular.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 9, 2011 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Love that pic btw. Kesler losing his check, tripping over Luongo and taking a header while the puck goes in the net is pure gold.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
The look on Luongo’s face is also quite good.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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