Edmonton Oilers Power Play Scoring Chances 2010-2011

As promised during our season recaps, today we'll work through the scoring chance rates of the regulars on the Edmonton Oilers' power play.  As always, full credit goes to Dennis King at mc79hockey, without whom none of this would be possible.  That he's counted scoring chances for two last place teams in a row is a testament to his dedication and fanaticism.

PPTOI = total power play time on ice; TCF = season total power play chances for; CF/15 = player on-ice scoring chance per 15 minutes of power play time; PPGF = total power play goals for on ice; CF/PPGF = power play chances for divided by power play goals for, or team conversion ratio; %CON = Team conversion ratio expressed as a percentage.

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click the header row, the initial sort is CF/15

Player  PPTOI TSC CF/15 PPGF CF/GF %CON
Ryan Jones 67.87 43 9.504 9 4.778 0.209
Andrew Cogliano 75.78 47 9.303 10 4.700 0.213
Linus Omark 134.48 79 8.812 8 9.875 0.101
Sam Gagner 200.30 108 8.088 14 7.714 0.130
Magnus Paajarvi 147.30 78 7.943 13 6.000 0.167
Fwd Average

7.451
6.256 0.160
Taylor Hall 177.47 86 7.269 12 7.167 0.140
Jordan Eberle 175.92 85 7.248 16 5.313 0.188
Dustin Penner 185.67 84 6.786 15 5.600 0.179
Gilbert Brule 52.32 23 6.594 3 7.667 0.130
Shawn Horcoff 128.05 53 6.209 12 4.417 0.226
Ales Hemsky 151.33 62 6.145 9 6.889 0.145

 

The first thing that jumps off of the page is the disparity in chances for between the first power play unit and the extras.  Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky and Hall made up the bulk of the team's #1 power play when healthy and their chances ratios are significantly lower than those of the second-team guys.  I believe quality of competition is probably the most likely culprit - the secondary players were facing secondary penalty killers.

Now sort the table by %CON, the on-ice conversion rate.  Note how low both Gagner and Omark's conversion rates were.  They were generating chances, but either they or their teammates weren't finishing.  The same thing happened to Omark at even strength.  If the power play starts finishing chances at even a mediocre rate 15-25% better than .101 with Omark on the ice, his counting numbers are going to increase.  The same can be said of Gagner - his .130 is significant drop from his .200 in 2009-2010.  A .2 conversion rate gives Gagner approximately another 5 points in his counting stats and 47 points in 68 games looks promising.  It would be interesting to see Omark and Gagner with a shooter or a garbage goal man in front.  If the chances are there, they just need a little finish to blossom on the power play.  Fans have always complained that Hemsky needs a shooter to help him on the power play - what about the other two playmakers up front?

Taylor Hall's conversion rate is also extremely low.

Player  PPTOI TSC CF/15 PPGF CF/GF %CON
Jim Vandermeer 28.83 21 10.925 4 5.250 0.190
Taylor Chorney 21.83 13 8.931 4 3.250 0.308
Kurtis Foster 284.45 154 8.121 24 6.417 0.156
Ladislav Smid 59.27 31 7.846 5 6.200 0.161
Def Average

7.579
6.083 0.164
Tom Gilbert 236.82 118 7.474 15 7.867 0.127
Ryan Whitney 151.15 68 6.748 15 4.533 0.221
Jeff Petry 76.47 30 5.885 5 6.000 0.167

 

Whitney had the highest %CON among the regular defenders, contributing to his career offensive season.  Like his PDO, there's a significant chance that %CON number will decline next season leading to a decrease in his counting numbers.

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