Edmonton Oilers Power Play Scoring Chances 2010-2011
by Derek Zona on Jun 8, 2011 11:30 AM MDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintAs promised during our season recaps, today we'll work through the scoring chance rates of the regulars on the Edmonton Oilers' power play. As always, full credit goes to Dennis King at mc79hockey, without whom none of this would be possible. That he's counted scoring chances for two last place teams in a row is a testament to his dedication and fanaticism.
PPTOI = total power play time on ice; TCF = season total power play chances for; CF/15 = player on-ice scoring chance per 15 minutes of power play time; PPGF = total power play goals for on ice; CF/PPGF = power play chances for divided by power play goals for, or team conversion ratio; %CON = Team conversion ratio expressed as a percentage.
*Tables are sortable by column, simply click the header row, the initial sort is CF/15
| Player | PPTOI | TSC | CF/15 | PPGF | CF/GF | %CON |
| Ryan Jones | 67.87 | 43 | 9.504 | 9 | 4.778 | 0.209 |
| Andrew Cogliano | 75.78 | 47 | 9.303 | 10 | 4.700 | 0.213 |
| Linus Omark | 134.48 | 79 | 8.812 | 8 | 9.875 | 0.101 |
| Sam Gagner | 200.30 | 108 | 8.088 | 14 | 7.714 | 0.130 |
| Magnus Paajarvi | 147.30 | 78 | 7.943 | 13 | 6.000 | 0.167 |
| Fwd Average | 7.451 | 6.256 | 0.160 | |||
| Taylor Hall | 177.47 | 86 | 7.269 | 12 | 7.167 | 0.140 |
| Jordan Eberle | 175.92 | 85 | 7.248 | 16 | 5.313 | 0.188 |
| Dustin Penner | 185.67 | 84 | 6.786 | 15 | 5.600 | 0.179 |
| Gilbert Brule | 52.32 | 23 | 6.594 | 3 | 7.667 | 0.130 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 128.05 | 53 | 6.209 | 12 | 4.417 | 0.226 |
| Ales Hemsky | 151.33 | 62 | 6.145 | 9 | 6.889 | 0.145 |
The first thing that jumps off of the page is the disparity in chances for between the first power play unit and the extras. Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky and Hall made up the bulk of the team's #1 power play when healthy and their chances ratios are significantly lower than those of the second-team guys. I believe quality of competition is probably the most likely culprit - the secondary players were facing secondary penalty killers.
Now sort the table by %CON, the on-ice conversion rate. Note how low both Gagner and Omark's conversion rates were. They were generating chances, but either they or their teammates weren't finishing. The same thing happened to Omark at even strength. If the power play starts finishing chances at even a mediocre rate 15-25% better than .101 with Omark on the ice, his counting numbers are going to increase. The same can be said of Gagner - his .130 is significant drop from his .200 in 2009-2010. A .2 conversion rate gives Gagner approximately another 5 points in his counting stats and 47 points in 68 games looks promising. It would be interesting to see Omark and Gagner with a shooter or a garbage goal man in front. If the chances are there, they just need a little finish to blossom on the power play. Fans have always complained that Hemsky needs a shooter to help him on the power play - what about the other two playmakers up front?
Taylor Hall's conversion rate is also extremely low.
| Player | PPTOI | TSC | CF/15 | PPGF | CF/GF | %CON |
| Jim Vandermeer | 28.83 | 21 | 10.925 | 4 | 5.250 | 0.190 |
| Taylor Chorney | 21.83 | 13 | 8.931 | 4 | 3.250 | 0.308 |
| Kurtis Foster | 284.45 | 154 | 8.121 | 24 | 6.417 | 0.156 |
| Ladislav Smid | 59.27 | 31 | 7.846 | 5 | 6.200 | 0.161 |
| Def Average | 7.579 | 6.083 | 0.164 | |||
| Tom Gilbert | 236.82 | 118 | 7.474 | 15 | 7.867 | 0.127 |
| Ryan Whitney | 151.15 | 68 | 6.748 | 15 | 4.533 | 0.221 |
| Jeff Petry | 76.47 | 30 | 5.885 | 5 | 6.000 | 0.167 |
Whitney had the highest %CON among the regular defenders, contributing to his career offensive season. Like his PDO, there's a significant chance that %CON number will decline next season leading to a decrease in his counting numbers.
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Hey, lookit Ryan Jones! Best SC rate on the team, and third best conversion rate. Put that man on the powerplay!
I find reading both lists from the bottom up comes closer to how I actually rank these guys as powerplayers. These are oddball results to say the least. Makes me wonder if we’re still counting the wrong thing. Are the grinders simplifying, therefore creating more half-chances rather than trying to execute the single killer play?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
I find reading both lists from the bottom up comes closer to how I actually rank these guys as powerplayers.
Really? I think Omark and Gagner are tremendous power play talents.
Are the grinders simplifying, therefore creating more half-chances rather than trying to execute the single killer play?
Or they are playing against third-pairing forwards and second pairing defense.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Good question. Is Gabe’s QualComp stuff from PP of any use whatsoever? If top PP guys consistently play against top PKers, everybody on both units would trend to the middle, eh. My other big concern would be small sample size for the whole shitteree.
Don;‘t disagree on Omark and Gagner, just saying that there’s way more guys I would perceive as offensive guns that are below the average than are above it. Not quite unanimous, but to me the lists read a little better upside down.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 8, 2011 2:29 PM MDT up reply actions
I would have thought Jones and Cogliano were on the pp only because everyone else was injured, so they wouldn’t have necessarily been playing against the opponents weakest players. No??
by ghs on Jun 8, 2011 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions
Even when they came on at the end of the year they were on the second PP
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay Thanks. Who was centering the first pp at the end? (If I knew where to look I would look it up myself).
by ghs on Jun 8, 2011 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Excellent work. The takeaway for me is that we’d be a helluva lot better with actual NHL’ers to finish what guys like Omark and Gagner start. Of course that sort of crazy talk would not be conducive to a lotto pick.
I shudder to think how Sam would be progressing on a team that actually had winning as its first priority.
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