Magnus Paajarvi Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Jun 3, 2011 6:30 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

It's not often a fan base should be excited about a forward with a scoring chance percentage of .451, but in Magnus Paajarvi's case, there is so much to be excited about. By the numbers and to the eye, Paajarvi started slowly as he adjusted to the NHL in his rookie season, but sometime around his 20th game, he started to understand this whole NHL hockey thing.

Chance % Team Rank: 15/23
Chance % Fwd. Rank: 10/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 15/23
Diff/60% Fwd. Rank: 10/15

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	25	44	25	44	0.362	0.453
11-20	36	90	11	46	0.193	0.401
21-30	77	135	41	45	0.477	0.449
31-40	111	168	34	33	0.507	0.467
41-50	151	207	40	39	0.506	0.531
51-60	181	246	30	39	0.435	0.470
61-70	212	281	31	35	0.470	0.454
71-82	265	322	53	41	0.564	0.486

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Rather than talking about regression, we can talk about progression. Paajarvi's first two segments were brutal, sub-AHL-type segments. A look at his totals with his most common linemates during those 20 games shows just how tough Paajarvi's transition was on him and his linemates:

Linemate	CH F	CF A	CH %
Sam Gagner	8	28	0.222
Gilbert Brule	11	29	0.275
Andrew Cogliano	11	26	0.297

But starting with the 3rd segment of the season, games 21-30, Paajarvi's results changed significantly. In his last six segments, he was 50% or above three times. He was above the team average four times. The graph shows the beautiful contrast in his results. In fact, from game 21 through the final game of the season, Paajarvi's scoring chance totals were as follows: 229 CF - 232 CA or .497 chance percentage. He was nearly an even player in the last six segments of the season.

Scoring Chances WOWY

	With Paajarvi			Without Paajarvi			Paajarvi Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
10	31	30	0.508	168	156	0.519	234	292	0.445
13	56	70	0.444	234	259	0.475	209	252	0.453
14	32	44	0.421	277	259	0.517	233	278	0.456
23	102	103	0.498	51	82	0.383	163	219	0.427
27	27	30	0.474	221	218	0.503	238	292	0.449
28	51	63	0.447	112	201	0.358	214	259	0.452
67	24	40	0.375	84	114	0.424	241	282	0.461
83	24	27	0.471	169	171	0.497	241	295	0.450
85	24	21	0.533	87	112	0.437	241	301	0.445
89	103	144	0.417	168	173	0.493	162	178	0.476

2	74	96	0.435	172	203	0.459	191	226	0.458
5	85	109	0.438	247	268	0.480	180	213	0.458
6	56	58	0.491	112	135	0.453	209	264	0.442
26	55	79	0.410	184	222	0.453	210	243	0.464
43	43	42	0.506	97	118	0.451	222	280	0.442
49	63	86	0.423	215	274	0.440	202	236	0.461
58	51	52	0.495	111	91	0.550	214	270	0.442
77	88	99	0.471	283	293	0.491	177	223	0.443

Paajarvi's best extensive work came with Linus Omark at .498 and that includes time spent with Sam Gagner (51 CF - 65 CA). Find the two Swedes a center who can work with them and the Oilers have a very dangerous line.

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Comments

Trade for Smyth, sign Arnott or another quality vet C, sign a cheaper vet C (Reasoner type), draft Couturier, sign a goaltender who can share time with Dubnyk (not sure who is available but somoene will be) and go with the following:

94 – Vet C – 83
91 – 10 – 23
14 – Couturier – 4
28 – Reasoner – 13

77 – 6
26 – 58
5 – 49

40
G

Not quite a playoff team but it’ll be damn close. Replace Foster with a solid vet after next year and it’s got a good shot.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Jun 3, 2011 8:34 AM MDT reply actions

I’m not sure I see the logic of playing two of our best wingers (14 and 4) out of position, and then slapping them with a rookie center and giving them third minutes. If you’re hoping for Hemsky’s line to go PVP I would probably go Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky. Put Couturier with the Swedes and feed them the soft parade, and then have 94-Vet C-14 take on second toughs.

by Adam Dyck on Jun 3, 2011 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions

It should have been 4-Couturier-14

I was feeding this group the soft parade, letting 91-10-23 take on the second toughs.

I think the 4-14 combo should play together and get more responsibilities every year.

I’m not sure if the offense will ever be there for 91 (i.e. being a 65+ point player) but I think he can be the new Dustin Penner in terms of being able to put up 45+ and win the possession battle.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Jun 3, 2011 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions

to be realistic, we will see the same team as last year. Perhaps a new offensive player and a veteran defender. I see no changes before 2012.
we must find a way to use the existing material. This requires Whitney and Hemsky stay healthy. Brule should shoot more goals again and find a center for our Swedish.
A top 4 defenders, would be desirable (not a rookie)

by Screaming69 on Jun 3, 2011 10:56 AM MDT reply actions

I’m just not entirely sure that whatever it was Paajarvi learned about the North American game this year couldn’t have been learned in the AHL. Seems like a bit of a wasted ELC year to me.

by melancholyculkin on Jun 3, 2011 11:21 AM MDT reply actions

Simple

You can’t spell HOPE without ‘P’.

by David S on Jun 3, 2011 9:44 PM MDT up reply actions

Petry?

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 3, 2011 11:06 PM MDT up reply actions

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