Magnus Paajarvi Scoring Chances 2010-2011

It's not often a fan base should be excited about a forward with a scoring chance percentage of .451, but in Magnus Paajarvi's case, there is so much to be excited about.  By the numbers and to the eye, Paajarvi started slowly as he adjusted to the NHL in his rookie season, but sometime around his 20th game, he started to understand this whole NHL hockey thing.

Chance % Team Rank: 15/23
Chance % Fwd. Rank: 10/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 15/23
Diff/60% Fwd. Rank: 10/15

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 25 44 25 44 0.362 0.453
11-20 36 90 11 46 0.193 0.401
21-30 77 135 41 45 0.477 0.449
31-40 111 168 34 33 0.507 0.467
41-50 151 207 40 39 0.506 0.531
51-60 181 246 30 39 0.435 0.470
61-70 212 281 31 35 0.470 0.454
71-82 265 322 53 41 0.564 0.486

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Paajarviseasonsegment_medium

Rather than talking about regression, we can talk about progression.  Paajarvi's first two segments were brutal, sub-AHL-type segments.  A look at his totals with his most common linemates during those 20 games shows just how tough Paajarvi's transition was on him and his linemates:

Linemate CH F CF A CH %
Sam Gagner 8 28 0.222
Gilbert Brule 11 29 0.275
Andrew Cogliano 11 26 0.297

 

But starting with the 3rd segment of the season, games 21-30, Paajarvi's results changed significantly.  In his last six segments, he was 50% or above three times.  He was above the team average four times.  The graph shows the beautiful contrast in his results.  In fact, from game 21 through the final game of the season, Paajarvi's scoring chance totals were as follows:  229 CF - 232 CA or .497 chance percentage.  He was nearly an even player in the last six segments of the season.

 

Scoring Chances WOWY


With Paajarvi
Without Paajarvi
Paajarvi Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
10 31 30 0.508
168 156 0.519
234 292 0.445
13 56 70 0.444
234 259 0.475
209 252 0.453
14 32 44 0.421
277 259 0.517
233 278 0.456
23 102 103 0.498
51 82 0.383
163 219 0.427
27 27 30 0.474
221 218 0.503
238 292 0.449
28 51 63 0.447
112 201 0.358
214 259 0.452
67 24 40 0.375
84 114 0.424
241 282 0.461
83 24 27 0.471
169 171 0.497
241 295 0.450
85 24 21 0.533
87 112 0.437
241 301 0.445
89 103 144 0.417
168 173 0.493
162 178 0.476












2 74 96 0.435
172 203 0.459
191 226 0.458
5 85 109 0.438
247 268 0.480
180 213 0.458
6 56 58 0.491
112 135 0.453
209 264 0.442
26 55 79 0.410
184 222 0.453
210 243 0.464
43 43 42 0.506
97 118 0.451
222 280 0.442
49 63 86 0.423
215 274 0.440
202 236 0.461
58 51 52 0.495
111 91 0.550
214 270 0.442
77 88 99 0.471
283 293 0.491
177 223 0.443

 

Paajarvi's best extensive work came with Linus Omark at .498 and that includes time spent with Sam Gagner (51 CF - 65 CA).  Find the two Swedes a center who can work with them and the Oilers have a very dangerous line.

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