Sean Couturier vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
by dawgbone98 on Jun 23, 2011 7:12 PM MDT
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PrintAt the beginning of 2011 when Central Scouting came out with their mid season draft rankings, the consensus was that Sean Couturier was ahead, albeit slightly, of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Since then, Nugent-Hopkins stock has gone skyward and Couturier has been left in the dust. Why is that?
I've abused google over the past 5 or 6 days to try and find where one player gained momentum and the other faltered. Couturier's stock fell slightly because of his lack of production at the WJHC. It's understandable, it's a big tournament where there is a lot of attention. Whether that's fair or not is another story.
I had initially thought that perhaps Nugent-Hopkins exploded offensively and out-produced Couturier over the final months of the season, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Since the beginning of January these are their numbers:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 34GP 21G 38A (0.62 GPG, 1.12 APG, 1.74 PPG)
Sean Couturier: 26GP 20G 24A (0.80 GPG, 0.92 APG, 1.69 PPG)
The difference over 34 games is 59 points for Nugent-Hopkins and 57 points for Couturier. Nothing separating them there.
I started to dig around more. I started looking for stories and message board comments that pumped one player up or took another player down. I looked for stories that started to hype a player as the more consensus pick. The results from that are interesting.
Around February 10 is when I noticed a big shift in opinions. There was a heavy shift towards Ryan Nugent-Hopkinds around that time. I decided to look it up and there seems to be a huge reason why that seems to have happened.
Nugent-Hopkins exploded for 23 points (6G 17A) in 7 games from January 23rd to February 4th. That's a 3.29 PPG average. In those 7 games he managed to record two 4 point games and a 6 point game. In that same stretch, Couturier scored 12 points in 7 games (including a 5 point game), which was 1.71 points per game (slightly above his season average of 1.65).
I wonder how much this stretch had to do with Nugent-Hopkins soaring up the rankings. If it did, what explains Couturier's drop? Was it a matter of seeing some holes in his game or is it a case of "over-falling" (i.e. Cam Fowler)?
I'm trying to recall a ranking that worked out like this, where a guy fell so far after being near the top at mid season. Generally what happens is a player has a strong finish that propels them (i.e. Hall jumping clear of Seguin, Huburdreau climbing up during the playoffs, etc...). Angelo Esposito comes to mind but he was trending downwards for well over a season. Brule at one point was a contender to Crosby but again, he had a gradual fall.
It would be nice to hear from a scout about when they started changing their minds. I'd be a tad worried if the answer was early February.
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With RNH I think it is a lot of BS, his defense is questionable as his face-off capability. He did not play the PK and on the PP the face-offs were taken by Byron Froese, which could be said that it accounted for at least a third of his PP points. Byron Froese was RD best Face-off man and goal scorer. RD loaded the deck for RNH, he’s another pass first and shot later player, which the Oilers are loaded with. In the Oil King series he scored 11 points, but was only a +2. 6 PP points and 5 EV points. In the MH Tigers series he was a -5, MH owned his butt every timed they played him. You have to win a face-off to control the the play, offensively or defensively, which is the Oilers biggest weakness. Drafting another light weight center will guarantee many more losing seasons for the Oilers.
9 out of 10 polled NHL scouts disagree.
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I wonder why there seemed to be so much trash talk about Couturier’s skating all of a sudden as well. Was that a byproduct of the RNH comparison or was he exposed at some point?
by RiversQ on Jun 23, 2011 10:07 PM MDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Great job digging up the turning point. I would think the difference is RNH putting slightly superior numbers despite being 8 months younger and physically inferior.
Despite all the negative words, I think he goes top 3/4 depending only if COL really does take Landeskog. His skating just seems to be an easy focal point compared to explaining the limitations of the other prospects.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jun 23, 2011 10:27 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
He didn’t put up superior numbers.
Couturier wiped the floor with him in goals per game and also beat him in points per game (1.66 to 1.54). He had 11 less games, mostly thanks to the WJHC.
But I do understand the skating thing and how that will influence his rating. I’m also convinced that his fall has a lot to do with being in the spot light more and having more time to identify flaws.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
For the record, what prompted this was McGuire’s comment regarding Couturier (and the Sens drafting him in the mock draft).
It was something along the lines of “Sens better hope he’s better because he wasn’t very good this year!”
The guy lead all draft eligible players in PPG & was the QMJHL MVP… if that’s a bad season, what is a good one?
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
McGuire is an idiot, but the point he was making still stands. Scouts expected him dominate the Q and he didn’t, at least not in the way they were expecting. So he dropped.
As well, its pretty easy to score a lot of points when you play 25+ minutes a game, a luxery not shared by RNH.
Making fun of me on Twitter Derek? Nice, what are you the big bad schoolyard bully?
The situation is simillar to that of Robbie Schremp. Good players with a lot of icetime are more likely to put up points. If this wasn’t truth there’d be no reason to differentiate icetime in games (ie. shortening the bench when you are losing).
Couturier is a good player and a good prospect, but like the professionals have hinted at, he plays a lot – almost too much – and it’s affected his performance, and from their point of view it affected it adversly.
The Schremp analogy is somewhat deceptive since, with the possible exception of ice time (we don’t know what Schremp’s ice time was in his draft year), the two aren’t similar players, either stylistically or statistically.
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 24, 2011 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions
We don’t really know either players icetimes. The only things we know is that London was famous for riding their top players very hard, and that Avalanche scouts have said that it seems like Couturier plays everyother shift.
The basic point still remains that good players given a bunch of icetime are going to put up a bunch of points.
I wouldnt be surprised if we could look at pts/60 for both players they would probably be pretty similar.
Are you talking about Schremp and Couturier? On what basis do you think that’s true? Schremp scored 82 points in 75 games in his draft year compared to 107 points in 68 games for Couturier. The gap there is pretty massive. If we don’t control for game state (which is disadvantageous to Couturier), even if Couturier was playing 30 minutes per game (which I doubt was his average), he’d still be ahead of Schremp if Schremp were playing 20 minutes per game. The two players just aren’t similar at all at the same age.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 24, 2011 11:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Well first off Couturier didnt score 107 points, but that’s not really important.
I’m sorry I should have been more clear the pts/60 for RNH and Sean Couturier should be roughly similar if we assume that RNH played approximately 18-20 (based on the fact the Rebels roll all 4 lines) and Couturier 25-30 (which is based off the information given by Av scouts). At even a 20 → 25 minute comparison RNH’s and Sean Couturiers total icetime would be roughly equal, even though Sean participated in roughly 11 or so less games. That would make RNH’s scoring pace (in terms of ppg) actually higher than Sean Couturier. As such I’d bet that if we were privy to such numbers we would find that RNHs and Couturiers pts/60 are fairly simillar and neither player really blew the other one out of the water.
That’s not to say I know this for certain, it’s just an educated guess, based largely on circumstantial evidence and hypotheticals.
First off, that you were talking about Nugent-Hopkins makes much more sense, so thanks for clarifying. I’m not confident about the ice time numbers we have here; I’d want something more concrete before I bought into Nugent-Hopkins’ playing that much less Couturier, and of course, it’s important to mention that a good chunk of Couturier’s ice time was on the PK. That said, it’s been pretty well-established that the QMJHL doesn’t translate quite as well as the WHL, which is why, in terms of NHLE, Nugent-Hopkins is already ahead, but like you said, they’re very close. I like Couturier a bit better for first overall despite that because I believe he’s the better all-around player (his +/- relative to teammates is dominant), his statistical performance at EV is substantially better, his size is a huge plus, and the skating concerns seem very fixable. That said, I don’t think anyone is a lock to be the best player from this draft ten years down the road. I just think Couturier is the safest bet to be really good.
Lastly, as dawgbone said, I included playoff scoring for both guys, so that’s where the point totals come from (regular season only is a bit of a crummy standard in my opinion since the schedule isn’t balanced in the CHL anyway).
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 24, 2011 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Great post.
I’ve been arguing for months that the RNH climb has more to do with a very good stretch than it does with him being clear and away the best player available. I’ve got plenty of concerns about him, sure hope I’m off the mark.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
You’re not the only one, a lot of scouts seem willing to bet their career/reputation on the fact that he’s the best player in the draft.
Except only 1 has to do so (bet their repuation).
I’ve been curious to know how much of these scouts are just participating in a bit of gamesmanship, especially when there is a draft with a lot of close players.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I suggest you read Gare Joyce’s book “Future Greats and Heartbreaks”. The scouting fraternity seems pretty close, I dont think they go around trying to screw each other over. But I have been wrong before.
That books hints that in 2005 the scouts were split between Kessel (because with a CBA change he’d have been eligible for that draft) and Crosby, but in this draft with so many players so close it’s unanimous for RNH. I don’t buy it.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
How would they be screwing each other over?
If I’m the #3 pick and someone in the media asks me I probably put my guy a bit lower than I actually have him.
It’s gamesmanship from the same league who classifies a concussion as an upper body injury.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
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