The Oilers And Free Agency
by Derek Zona on Jun 22, 2011 11:30 AM MDT
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Though hockey fans are nearing the peak of draft hysteria, it should be noted that the opening of free agency is only ten days away and as has been the case since 2006, the Oilers have some very big holes to fill if they want to get up off of the mat in 2011-2012. Yesterday, I explored the use of offer sheets to improve the roster through restricted free agency. After the jump I'll look at next season's team and some players the Oilers could target to fill those roster holes.
Forwards
| - | Gagner | - | Hemsky | |
| Hall | - | Horcoff | - | Eberle |
| Paajarvi | - | - | Omark | |
| Jones | - | - |
Others: Cogliano, Brule, Fraser
The forwards I've slotted into the above spaces are those players I believe to have cemented a spot on the roster. Further, I've used their scoring chance results to group them in what I believe would be the lines that give each player the greatest chance for success. As for the top line, Ales Hemsky is a proven tough minutes right wing and can play with a variety of players and do so effectively. Sam Gagner has proven ability as a complimentary player against tough minutes, but isn't able to carry lesser linemates against top competition. Give Hemsky and Gagner a veteran left winger with some skill, or proven ability against tough minutes and that line should, at the very least, play the tough minutes to a draw. If the Oilers can't work out a trade for Ryan Smyth and Michael Frolik won't accept their offer sheet, underrated players like Brooks Laich, Chris Higgins, and Scottie Upshall fit the bill.
The second line of Taylor Hall - Shawn Horcoff - Jordan Eberle doesn't need to change, the only thing they need is a healthy season together. While Hall and Eberle looked like NHL stars last season and the sky is the limit for their future, it's worth remembering that they gave up a ton of scoring chances when Horcoff wasn't around. Keeping this line together and limiting their assignment to second and third minutes through line matching gives the two sophomores another year to develop their all-zone game and one more developmental year before turning them loose against the best in the Western Conference.
The third line of Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark performed ably together, almost breaking even against varying levels of competition. Sam Gagner wasn't able to help, but like Hall and Eberle, the two Swedes could use a tough defender between them, someone reliable in their own end and strong on the cycle and on a short-term deal to hold a spot for Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Chris Vande Velde, Ryan Martindale or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. If the Oilers could find a penalty-killer in the same player, they would finally sign that player to replace Michael Peca-Jarrett Stoll-Marty Reasoner-Kyle Brodziak. Michal Handzus would be ideal, but he will likely request too much money and too much term to be a solid fit, but any of Vern Fiddler, Marty Reasoner, Eric Belanger, or Marcel Goc might come to Edmonton on a short-term deal, and the Oilers could overpay them to make sure.
Ryan Jones' contract means that he'll be in Edmonton for a couple of years, but his defensive deficiencies make him a bottom line goal-scoring specialist who needs some soft competition to thrive. He'll "anchor" the fourth line from the left wing, and his linemates must be able to help the Oilers moribund penalty kill. Pascal Dupuis, Joel Ward, Mike Grier, Jeff Halpern, and Adam Hall would be ideal fits for that bottom line, bringing respectability and ability where the Oilers have been lacking for awhile.
Others: The Oilers have attempted to trade Andrew Cogliano twice, and it's my belief that they'll try a couple of times this summer, at the draft and after free agency opens. I don't expect him to be in Oilers' silks next season. Gilbert Brule's ongoing condition and his twice too large contract mean he's not reliable on the roster and won't be moved. They could bury him in Oklahoma City (though not while injured), but he fits the bill as a 14th forward. Colin Fraser is better than any 13th forward the Oilers have had since 2006.
Needs: Tough minutes left wing / defensively adept center with faceoff and penalty killing ability / bottom line wingers with proven penalty killing ability who can play the game.
Targets: Brooks Laich, Chris Higgins, Scottie Upshall / Vern Fiddler, Marty Reasoner, Eric Belanger, Marcel Goc / Pascal Dupuis, Joel Ward, Mike Grier, Jeff Halpern, Adam Hall
Defensemen
| Whitney | - | |
| Smid | - | Gilbert |
| Peckham | - |
Others: Foster, Petry
In his comparison of the Oilers to the Bruins, Jonathan Willis concluded, "...Bottom line: The Oilers need at least one and possibly two top-end defensemen before they can compare favourably to Boston."
The Oilers seem to have found their voice in the locker room and on the ice in Ryan Whitney. He's coming off of one of the best (though shortened) non-Paul Coffey offensive seasons from the blueline in Oilers' history. Tom Gilbert is a proven commodity and could handle the top pairing duties with Whitney, but that combination would leave the Oilers woefully short of real NHL defensemen in the bottom four. The Oilers need a tough minutes guy on Whitney's right, someone who can handle 22-24 minutes a night, matching against the other team's best and playing four minutes on the penalty kill. The problem for Edmonton is that those guys are in short supply. Even if they draft Adam Larsson, he's likely to stay in Sweden for one more season, and if he doesn't, do the Oilers really want to expose him to tough minutes with an offense-first and last guy like Whitney at his side? Eric Brewer and Kevin Bieksa seem to fit that bill, but both are going to find themselves in a bidding war. They could hope for a miracle in Jan Hejda or Radek Martinek having one more season in them, or they could overpay Ed Jovanovski (doesn't everyone?) for a season while in transition. It's more likely that the Oilers will be forced to find their guy through the trade market.
For the second consecutive season, Ladislav Smid demonstrated the ability to consistently win the individual on-ice matchups as long as he's paired with a partner who can move the puck well. Last season, Smid edged 3rd-level minutes paired with Lubomir Visnovsky and this season he edged out second-level minutes while paired with Gilbert. Pair the two up again this season and slot them in as the second pair for the next couple of years.
Theo Peckham is locked into the bottom pairing despite being dead last in scoring chances last season on the Oilers' blueline. Much of that had to do with Peckham playing significant tough minutes and second-tough minutes assignments due to injuries, and keeping him on the third line should help him both improve his underlying numbers and develop his overall game. While Jeff Petry looks like a fine partner to Peckham, a puck-moving guy to counter the bash and smash frantic hockey Peckham plays, the Oilers need veteran depth in this spot, especially to help on the penalty kill. Snagging a defenseman on the market for less than $1 million for one year should be a first-day priority for Steve Tambellini and if he's unable to do so, he should wait the market out for awhile and snap up a jobless veteran in late July or early August. Veterans who come to mind include Radek Martinek, Jan Hejda, Karlis Skrastins, and if penalty killers aren't available Jonathan Ericsson and Jim Vandermeer.
Others: Kurtis Foster had a miserable season in 2010-11, and looks like he's going to spend his career as a power play specialist, a la Marc-Andre Bergeron. He's fine as a seventh defenseman for the short-term, but he's not a player a winning team would want to see taking on top four minutes for any extended period of time. Jeff Petry looks to be ready to take on a role as a bottom pairing guy, but bringing in veteran competition to force him to earn playing time is never a bad thing.
Needs: Top-pairing, tough minutes defenseman who can be a pack mule on the power play / veteran depth defenseman
Targets: Trade / Radek Martinek, Jan Hejda, Karlis Skrastins
Goaltenders
| Dubnyk |
Devan Dubnyk had a very good season considering the team he had in front of him and it was even better when contrasted with the season NIkolai Khabibulin recorded. Edmonton fans are hopeful Dubnyk's play is a sign of things to come and that the enormous goaltender is only getting better. Given Dubnyk's limited sample size, however, the Oilers should be careful and manage his minutes wisely, pairing Dubnyk with a veteran backup capable of playing 35-45 games and posting a league-average save percentage.
Others: Nikolai Khabibulin is not that veteran backup capable of playing 35-45 games or posting a league-average save percentage. In fact, the Oilers are better off buying Khabibulin out and taking the cap hit thus saving cash, rather than run him out to certain defeat for two more years.
Needs: Veteran goaltender to platoon with unproven starter.
Targets: Jose Theodore, Johan Hedberg, and Ray Emery if his medical records check out.
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"Veteran goaltender to platoon with unproven starter"
Martin Gerber for crying out loud.
BTW – Nice write-up Derek. I wonder if you felt like you were pissing into the wind when you penned ’er up.
I dont agree with the Cogliano point. I dont think Oilers will try and trade him this summer. he seems to be in Renney’s good books. He has played himself to be on the team. may not be the ideal 3rd line center, but should be a good 4th line one. or maybe a soft minutes line of Cogs MPS and Omark.
From all the talk and with the possibility of RNH playing here in the furture, there isa good chance that Gagner is gone as he is young and productive enough to fetch a good return.
Other than that I agree with almost everything that is written. I am not sold on bielsa who looked bad after Hamhuis injury. Furthermore maybe we can sign Wisniewiski and pair him with Smid and then send Whitney – Gilbert to the toughs. Just another possibilty.
Or maybe Brewer if he becomes available in the off season.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Tambellini has just made a big point of saying he’s not concerned if the #1 (RNH – we all know by now) is ready to make the leap. He just wants the best player, someone “special”. Book it he’ll play in OKC next year.
Also, they’re not going to get rid of Gagner. He played great with actual NHL’ers (per an earlier article here). He was trending over 50 points when he got sliced by Jones, and that was playing with two rookies in the back half of the season. On top of which, his value outside of Edmonton isn’t nearly as high as we think. Having said that, I think next year is his last chance to make a statement or RNH takes his place for sure.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is not eligible to play in the AHL next season. It’s NHL or Red Deer for that young man!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2011 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah I know, but rarely we have seen the 1st overall not making to the Nhl. Still I dont see Cogliano being the center on the move considerign he wont really get something of real signifiance back and no 2nd or 3rd round picks are not a good return considering we will be hoping they turn into a player like Cogliano anyways.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I dont agree with the Cogliano point. I dont think Oilers will try and trade him this summer. he seems to be in Renney’s good books. He has played himself to be on the team.
At least that’s the narrative. He doesn’t have a place on the Oilers, even as a 30th place team.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Why?
You yourself showed that he was an effective PKer for the Oilers. He still ended up scoring more than 30 points. Agreed he is poor on the FO circle, but the correlation between FO differential and win is very low and If I am not wrong that costed us 1 win i think.
If anything he has shown that he can be a more than capable 4th line center capable of taking a bigger role occasionally when a team goes through injury issues
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Agree on Gerber as the 50-50 guy with Dubnyk next year.
I’d add RH D-man Steve Montador to the list of targets, his numbers were pretty decent..
And don’t forget fellow Edmonite Vern Fiddler for that 4th line C role.
Its the other C, the missing Top-3 C, that is worrisome.
Meh Gerber is an aging goalie with a limited sample size of good production. if someone really wants to shore up the goalteding, then someone like Jose Theodore is the way to go. Or even Garon who will be a UFA if I am not wrong.
Gerber was quality for the role he was signed last season. Not quality for a back-up who might have to step in as a starter.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
OK, 60-40
I also think they should sign Harding to play in OKC.
He missed most of last season with a knee and could probably use plenty of game action.
i dont know ahy Minny wouldnt sign him, but yeah if he is available, he might be a good player to sign/trade for.
Scott Cullen thinks the Bobrovsky might be on the market too and wont be a shabby pick up either. But then Oilers are really grooming goalies for the future.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
And don’t forget fellow Edmonite Vern Fiddler for that 4th line C role.
I’ve got Fiddler as a target for that 3rd C between the Glimmer Twins.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Say we sign Smyth, a Smyth-Horcoff-Tough minute RW would be a damn good line to put against anyones top line.
Someone like Vrbata from Phoenix, would probably sign for 10m over 3 years, plays tough minutes and scores 40-50 points per season.
That line would be good for 50 goals.
Put Cogs between MPS and Hemmer to play the 2nd tier, with Gagner between Hall and Eberle feeding on the softies.
Back them up with a forth line of Finnish nutters and Jones.
If we do go for Smyth, then why not have a Smyth Gagner Hemsky line and leave the kids with Horcoff as Derek suggested. IMO that will be the right way to go about things.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
To pump Hemsky’s numbers for the trade deadline?
by edwards_daddy on Jun 22, 2011 2:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Why trade Hemsky at the deadline?
Trade him now or just sign him to an extention. With that top 6/9 we will be winning more games and might end up speeding the whole rebuild process.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Seems a bit insecure to trade/extend a guy a full year before his contract is due. Why are so many people around these parts so anxious to move a guy so ridiculously in advance of when we have to. I’m talking years in advance. Besides, his value is at its lowest right now. No way you’d get value for him until he shows he’s healthy again.
How different will his value be from now to the trade deadline?
The Penner deal is the template.
All reports indicate that Hemsky wants to sign and Oilers want to sign him, so i dont really see the harm in extending. He has injury concerns, but looks like it doesnt matter to the organisation, then sure sign him.
Also why sign him a year in advance : 2 reasons:
1.As you said his value is low right now. So we might get him to sign on a lower contract before a productive and healthy season
2. Why not sign him and get this over with. Longer he is unsigned, the more peoplewill speculate/ trade rumors/ contract distraction- the whole shubang
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Would that template be in the lines of trading a big bodied top-six actual goal-scoring NHL’er forward for…uhhh…what exactly did we get for him again? Oh yeah. A late first-round pick and Colten freaking Teubert. Tambellini made out like a bandit on that one.
1. Hemsky and his manager would be idiots to do a deal based on him not being proven healthy. Iiiiiidiots.
2. The Oilers don’t give a crap about “people”. They’ll do a deal when it best suits them. If Hemsky is proven healthy, they’ll get far more for him in December than now in a trade. Also, see (1).
I’m all for signing Hemsky, but we would be in a much better position to get something good at the deadline if he had 65pts in 55 games against his moniker
by edwards_daddy on Jun 23, 2011 12:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Vrbata is not a tough minutes player.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
His QUALCOMP has been 0.037 and 0.024 the past two years. He’s not playing the softies.
by edwards_daddy on Jun 23, 2011 1:02 AM MDT up reply actions
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 23, 2011 1:29 AM MDT up reply actions
I heard a few minutes of Oiler’s Infomercial today.
When discussing the possible drafting of Larrson, Bobco was speculating that the Oilers will have a Top-10 pick again in 2012, so they can add an impact D-man there.
His first reason for the pessimism [or optimism, depending on the fullness of your glasses] was that Khabi is still under contract for two more years.
Of course, I’m screaming at the radio, “Buy him out! Godammit, buy him out!”
I haven’t heard one Paid Media guy discuss a Khabi buy-out.
My point is that if you need to draft a defenseman who the organisation would look to for being an impact player when they get out fo the rebuilding mode, then they need to draft the D man earlier in the rebuild rather than later.
Next year’s draft also has Nail Yakupov, Grigorienko and galchenyuk as top forwards. So an arguement can be made both ways
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
by SumOil on Jun 22, 2011 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s exactly what I’ve been saying. If defencemen take longer to develop and forwards tend to be more of a start sooner/know what your getting, why in the hell wouldn’t you get that stud D-Man as early as freakin possible? Especially when your two best options are a virtual crap shoot for BPA and one is a D-Man.
Interesting line of thought and one that makes sense.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Because it’s not a crap shoot, I want them to take Nugent-Hopkins but I think Larsson will be a really good Dman but its not a crap shoot EVERYONE involved in Mock Drafts (Minus Maguire) or scouting thinks RNH is the best player in the draft and will have the best NHL career.
I haven’t heard one Paid Media guy discuss a Khabi buy-out.
You won’t. It would go against the team.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I feel the need to point out that Ryan Whitney hasn’t yet proven that he’s capable of a tough minutes role. I’d very much like to see the Oilers use Whitney and Gilbert as their OZ top four pairing and then bring in two guys to form a DZ top four pairing, which would leave Smid with Petry on the bottom pairing and Peckham and Foster as extras. I don’t know if that’s doable, but that would certainly be my goal.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2011 12:57 PM MDT reply actions
I feel the need to point out that Ryan Whitney hasn’t yet proven that he’s capable of a tough minutes role. I’d very much like to see the Oilers use Whitney and Gilbert as their OZ top four pairing and then bring in two guys to form a DZ top four pairing,
I understand, and I would like to see the same, but I tried to balance a bit of reality in with this.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
In that you think two trades is pretty well out of the question? I think it’s realistic if the team decides that competing this year will be a priority, and if they don’t decide to do that, then they may as well go with the status quo.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2011 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Who 2 people do you have in mind that can be acquired via trade?
I think 2 trades to land quality shut down D -men is pretty much out of the question.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Right now we’re short at least four NHL D-men. Adding two of those guys would be a huge leap forward. The “quality” component would just be a bonus.
It’s difficult to discuss specific names since we have very little information about who is “most” available, but there are likely opportunities out there. If Minnesota is unhappy with Nick Schultz, maybe there’s an opportunity there. If the Oilers believe that Keith Ballard just had an off-year, he could likely be had for a song. Maybe Winnipeg wants Maybe the Islanders are willing to move a guy like Mike Mottau coming off an injury for a late pick. We don’t really know what’s available, but I have a hard time believing that it wouldn’t be possible. It becomes even more doable if you’re willing to part with real value in order to get someone.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2011 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I feel bad for Cogs… he went from future of the team 3 years ago to ‘other’. Martinek got messed up pretty good by a Latvian at the World Championships and might not be available… shame as he would’ve been a perfect fit. So would Jan Hejda although it makes me cringe that we are targetting a guy we already had!
The best part of this is the assumption that Khabibulin won’t be back… I PRAY you are are right but am skeptical. He’ll probably play 50 games this year… I agree we could’ve done Gerber and Dubnyk last year and been better off right now.
Only problem is, Gerber and Dubnyk would not have allowed us to pick up RNH. I bet there’s a huge whiteboard somewhere in Oilers HQ that has a huge “2010 – Find ways to fail!” in permanent red marker.
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