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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Canucks vs. Bruins Scoring Chances - Stanley Cup Finals Totals

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Whether it was karma, injuries, exhaustion, or Boston was the better team, Vancouver was outplayed in this series. The goal differential might have been less lopsided if Luongo could have avoided the road collapses, but Boston did outchance the Canucks, especially on the power play. Claude Julien navigated the match-ups and did his best to keep Johnny Boychuk and Andrew Ference out of trouble and keep Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron on the ice against the Sedins. Despite being outchanced, David Krejci's line was able to outscore (thanks Tim Thomas) and Vancouver found no offense when Chara and Bergeron were able to shut down the Sedins. Boston was able to use superior depth to outlast Vancouver and it can't be ascribed to Vancouver's injuries - the Bruins were missing Marc Savard and Nathan Horton.








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Scoring Chances - Boston vs. Vancouver, Series Total

NHL Game Numbers 30411, 30412, 30413, 30414, 30415, 30416, 30417

Team Totals, Boston in Gold

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 37 28 21 23 16 3 0 0 0 1 0 0
2 33 26 22 18 6 7 1 1 3 0 0 0
3 33 32 21 28 7 2 3 1 1 1 0 0
4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 103 87 64 70 29 12 4 2 4 2 0 0

*4v4 chances do do not count as even strength time on ice. See here for an explanation.

The Bruins were slightly outchanced at even strength and though my first instinct was to pin that on playing to the score, it's not true. In the third period of Boston's four blowout wins, the Bruins were actually +1 in EV scoring chances. Vancouver was +8 in their three close wins (thanks Tim Thomas!).

More interesting, surprising actually, were the chances numbers on special teams. Vancouver had the top-ranked power play in the NHL during the regular season. Boston was 20th. Vancouver had the third-ranked penalty kill during the regular season, Boston was ranked 16th. Despite the big disparity in rankings, the Bruins whipped the Canucks on special teams. The Bruins had the advantage in every category: 29-12 at 5v4, 4-2 at 5v3 and 4-2 short-handed. They held a 37-16 advantage on special teams.

In fact, Boston scored more short-handed goals (3) than the Canucks scored on the power play (1). Boston's 3 short-handed goals on 4 short-handed chances is either an indictment of Luongo or the Canucks' defense or both.


Scoring Chances by Player - Boston

# Player EV PP SH
11 Gregory Campbell 55.4 11 12 4 2 6 28.1 2 0
12 Tomas Kaberle 75.9 17 14 26.8 19 0 0.53 0 1
17 Milan Lucic 95.9 22 28 23.5 17 0 0.07 0 2
18 Nathan Horton 32 8 8 6.9 3 0 0 0 0
19 Tyler Seguin 49.1 9 4 5.17 2 0 0 0 0
20 Daniel Paille 48.9 13 9 0.72 1 4 21.5 1 0
21 Andrew Ference 114 27 25 14.1 7 2 20.8 1 0
22 Shawn Thornton 46.3 10 14 0 0 0 0.37 0 0
23 Chris Kelly 82.7 12 13 1.43 0 4 17.2 0 0
28 Mark Recchi 79.1 13 19 19.8 12 0 0.37 0 0
33 Zdeno Chara 127 21 29 21.9 12 9 34.1 2 0
37 Patrice Bergeron 89.5 13 20 19.3 12 4 14.9 3 2
44 Dennis Seidenberg 122 18 31 25.4 16 8 32.8 2 2
46 David Krejci 104 24 27 25.4 17 0 1.27 0 2
49 Rich Peverley 90.4 18 21 9.32 6 4 16.9 1 0
54 Adam McQuaid 85.3 18 15 0.02 0 1 7.2 0 0
55 Johnny Boychuk 113 27 27 3.17 2 4 18.7 3 0
63 Brad Marchand 98.5 21 25 3.05 1 2 10.7 1 0
73 Michael Ryder 77.7 18 12 21.7 17 0 0 0 1

Chara and Seidenberg played a ton of minutes matched mostly against the Sedin line. They both came out on the short end. Ryder's +6 led the Bruins in raw chances, but Tyler Seguin's low-event +5 was second. Krejci's line was out-chanced overall, but was able to outscore their Canucks opponents.

Boston - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
19 Tyler Seguin 2.752 1.223 1.529
20 Daniel Paille 3.990 2.763 1.228
73 Michael Ryder 3.474 2.316 1.158
12 Tomas Kaberle 3.358 2.766 0.593
54 Adam McQuaid 3.167 2.639 0.528
21 Andrew Ference 3.559 3.295 0.264
18 Nathan Horton 3.754 3.754 0.000
55 Johnny Boychuk 3.588 3.588 0.000
23 Chris Kelly 2.178 2.359 -0.181
11 Gregory Campbell 2.981 3.252 -0.271
46 David Krejci 3.459 3.891 -0.432
49 Rich Peverley 2.988 3.486 -0.498
63 Brad Marchand 3.199 3.808 -0.609
17 Milan Lucic 3.442 4.380 -0.939
33 Zdeno Chara 2.486 3.433 -0.947
28 Mark Recchi 2.466 3.605 -1.138
37 Patrice Bergeron 2.178 3.351 -1.173
22 Shawn Thornton 3.243 4.541 -1.297
44 Dennis Seidenberg 2.216 3.817 -1.601

Seguin's time was carefully managed, and that's obvious in his CA/15 numbers (1.223) which were almost twice as good as the next lowest CA/15 (Ryder's 2.316). The biggest surprise to me is Paille's 3.990 CF/15 which led all Bruins in the series. Johnny Boychuk was even for the series in more carefully managed time. Chara, Bergeron, Recchi and Seidenberg are all at the bottom of the differential list because of their large amount of time spent against the Sedins.

Scoring Chances by Player - Vancouver

# Player EV PP SH
2 Dan Hamhuis 4.03 2 1 0 0 1 4.12 0 0
3 Kevin Bieksa 130 34 29 23.6 4 14 21.6 1 0
4 Keith Ballard 14.9 2 5 0.32 0 0 0.58 0 0
5 Christian Ehrhoff 121 23 15 32.9 7 8 10.6 0 4
6 Sami Salo 96.8 24 21 24.2 3 13 20.5 1 1
10 Jeff Tambellini 30.4 5 8 0.9 0 0 0 0 1
13 Raffi Torres 81.1 17 15 5.33 1 0 0.07 0 0
14 Alexandre Burrows 98 23 16 16.3 2 11 16.8 0 0
15 Tanner Glass 27.7 2 8 0.38 0 0 0.05 0 0
17 Ryan Kesler 92 25 24 36.1 10 10 17.8 1 3
18 Christopher Tanev 41.6 8 7 1.3 1 0 0.55 0 0
20 Chris Higgins 86.2 23 17 17.5 2 5 5.77 1 0
21 Mason Raymond 61.8 16 14 16.6 1 6 8.55 0 1
22 Daniel Sedin 100 24 18 35.7 10 0 0.53 0 3
23 Alexander Edler 120 32 19 25.8 9 9 20.6 1 3
27 Manny Malhotra 54.3 11 12 8.95 0 8 14.5 1 0
29 Aaron Rome 36.3 5 9 0.1 0 1 2.52 0 0
33 Henrik Sedin 102 22 18 33.5 10 0 0.4 0 4
36 Jannik Hansen 86.1 20 16 2.83 0 12 16.5 0 0
38 Victor Oreskovich 44.1 8 12 0.92 0 0 0 0 0
40 Maxim Lapierre 77.7 14 13 0.85 0 6 10.1 1 0
41 Andrew Alberts 70.3 10 22 0.13 0 12 11.1 1 0
49 Alexandre Bolduc 1.65 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

By the chances, the Sedin line was the Canucks best line this series, but the pucks weren't going in. Kesler was the man when it came to generating chances, leading all Canucks with 4.077 CF/15 and his regular linemates Higgins and Raymond were at the top with him. On the other end, Glass and Alberts weren't very good in this series and Tambellini and Oreskovich didn't finish much better than Alberts.

Vancouver - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
2 Dan Hamhuis 7.438 3.719 3.719
23 Alexander Edler 4.002 2.376 1.626
14 Alexandre Burrows 3.522 2.450 1.072
20 Chris Higgins 4.001 2.957 1.044
5 Christian Ehrhoff 2.844 1.855 0.989
22 Daniel Sedin 3.602 2.701 0.900
36 Jannik Hansen 3.484 2.787 0.697
33 Henrik Sedin 3.241 2.652 0.589
3 Kevin Bieksa 3.925 3.347 0.577
21 Mason Raymond 3.882 3.397 0.485
6 Sami Salo 3.719 3.254 0.465
13 Raffi Torres 3.146 2.775 0.370
18 Christopher Tanev 2.887 2.526 0.361
40 Maxim Lapierre 2.702 2.509 0.193
17 Ryan Kesler 4.077 3.914 0.163
27 Manny Malhotra 3.040 3.316 -0.276
38 Victor Oreskovich 2.719 4.079 -1.360
10 Jeff Tambellini 2.468 3.950 -1.481
29 Aaron Rome 2.064 3.716 -1.651
41 Andrew Alberts 2.133 4.692 -2.559
4 Keith Ballard 2.013 5.034 -3.020
15 Tanner Glass 1.082 4.330 -3.247
49 Alexandre Bolduc 0.000 9.091 -9.091

Only six Canucks ended the Finals in the red and Edler won the chances battle rather handly. I have to admit I saw Oreskovich much, much better than the chances show. I thought he was holding his own and even creating at times.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances

*Click to enlarge all charts

Bruinsvscanucksh2hchances_medium

The Sedin line beat on the Krejci line, the Krejci line beat on the Kesler line, the Kesler line beat on the Bergeron line and the Bergeron line held their own against the Sedin line. Note the "gentleman's agreement" match-up, the Bruins fourth line was superior to the Canucks fourth line. Note that Alberts didn't win a single match-up.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Time On Ice

Bruinsvscanucksh2hicetime_medium

The numbers reinforce the match-ups we saw throughout the series. Chara and Seidenberg got heavy minutes against the Sedins and Ference and Boychuk played against Kesler's line. Note how few minutes Kaberle and McQuaid drew against the Canucks' top two lines. Up front, Bergeron's line matched the Sedins and Krejci matched Kesler. It's also worth noting that the Canucks didn't have a predominant match-up with their defense.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances / 15

Bruinsvscanucksh2hchancesper15_medium

Krejci's line spent the last 14 games getting beat by the opponent's best and yet the Bruins still won both series.

With all of the even strength stuff out of the way, the power play chances are worth a second look. Below is a breakdown of the power play chances for each team.


PP Chances PP TOI CH/2
Boston 33 46.20 1.429
Vancouver 14 54.47 0.514

Vancouver had only a half of a chance per two minutes of power play time. Boston had close to a chance and a half per two minutes. The Bruins' power play outchanced the Canucks' power play by more than 2.5 to 1 per 2 minutes. None of Dan Hamhuis, Aaron Rome, or any of the other injured Canucks played a part in that miserable power play.

Comment 19 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I’m really surprised and disappointed in the Canucks. Say what you will about the Bruins’ goaltending, for puck possession team they were no more than decent. They had been just been thoroughly dominated by Tampa, and the Canucks, nominally the best team in the West and in the league, managed to get outplayed. One would have thought the Canucks would at least be able to outplay the Bruins, even if in the end they ended up losing due to goaltending.

Either the West is a wee bit overrated, or the Canucks, well, had a terrible stretch at the worst possible time.

Much ado has been made about Tim Thomas, but to me the percentages at the other end of the ice were at least as big of a story. Boston faced three goalies that played at .902 or less in all situations (I’m fairly sure this is below replacement level, no?). They racked up a whopping 10.3% shooting percentage at even strength for the playoffs, despite facing a .923% goalie at ES in the first round.

by MathMan on Jun 19, 2011 11:02 AM MDT reply actions  

Man I cant imagine how you would be feeling. Every series you argued against Boston and they kept on defying you.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jun 20, 2011 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions  

Theres speculation that Kesler and Henrik were playing injured, but to that I say – its the Stanley Cup Finals, if your not hurtin, your not trying hard enough

Insert Witty Comment Here

by VanillaAcid on Jun 19, 2011 11:08 AM MDT reply actions  

There’s speculation that everyone was injured; I’m too bitter to read the Bruins blog, but I suspect they’re in the same position.

by Passive Voice on Jun 19, 2011 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

How good would Richards look in place of Krejci (and bump Krejci down).

The B’s could probably afford it too.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Jun 20, 2011 8:03 AM MDT reply actions  

And have Bergeron as the third-line center? (Mind you he’d then be 2nd and Krejci would be third). They wouldn’t have enough wingers for everyone and not enough money to sign them.

C is their least area of need, it’s where they are deepest. D would be their biggest need, IMO.

by MathMan on Jun 20, 2011 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for your work on this Derek. I think you’ve given us some great evidence about the disparity in the power play. It’s obvious that the Bruins badly outscored the Canucks on special teams, so it was always going to be a story, but that they outplayed them so badly is really interesting (and surprising).

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 20, 2011 8:07 AM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for all the great reads over the playoffs!

I believe the West has more offense and maybe more skilled players. However the East plays something more akin to playoff hockey throughtout the season, and it’s why they fair so well in the finals.

Our hockey is a lot more entertaining, but Eastern teams need to adjust less to the post season. It is also likely that Eastern players have more experience with physical, tight checking games, which would give them an advantage in keeping scoring up and even avoiding getting as banged up.

To me the Canucks’ attempt to play 90’s Scott Stevens style hockey cost them more than anything (through injuries, penalties, collapse of their systems followed by collapse of their confidence) . There is a line between gritty and egregious. Their top 6 (without Samuelsson) and top pairing is fairly small and I think in the end they were more hurt than the Bruins – they played to their opponent’s strengths throughout the playoffs more than to their own.

In the playoffs, we see time and time again that enough speed with lots of grit fairs pretty well against what appears to be superior talent.

by FastOil on Jun 20, 2011 2:00 PM MDT reply actions  

I think you have it backwards.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Jun 20, 2011 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

+1

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jun 20, 2011 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t think so. The Canucks tried to play a physical game, but it went too often beyond finishing checks to looking for huge hits – like Stevens was so good at.

I got this impression throughout. To me, they mostly managed to create rallying points for the other teams, and bang themsleves up. Hamhuis is a perfect example – he could have easily contacted Lucic and made a good play, but instead went for the big hip check and got injured because Lucic is such a horse.

Vancouver initiated much of the tone of physicality that took them down. To me their game is speed and an aggressive forecheck, but that doesn’t mean maximum contact as often as possible.

For the Canucks physically able to hit that way, their dirtiness and subsequent penalties began to cause hesitation as Torres mentioned. Kessler hit too much, got hurt and reduced his quality of play, the Sedins couldn’t get away from contact which is the hallmark of their play and got too banged up and didn’t know how to react to provocation after the lesser lights got the opponents all riled up.

As I saw it, the Canucks played away from their strengths, over-estimated their toughness. They were too aggressive, villainized themsleves, got beat up and the systems fell apart that had bailed them out earlier. Luongo’s confidence would also be affected by the team vibe and slow meltdown.

by FastOil on Jun 20, 2011 4:00 PM MDT reply actions  

I almost completely agree with this analysis of yours.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jun 20, 2011 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

The Canucks aren’t tough enough for the playoffs now?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 20, 2011 5:16 PM MDT reply actions  

That vibe is quite prevalent in the Lower Mainland. I’m hoping that Gillis agrees and goes with “more toughness” as his off-season goal. I’m worried he’ll opt for “more talent” instead.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 20, 2011 5:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

I would be happy beyond belief if he trades talent for toughness.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 20, 2011 6:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t get the mentality that you blow it up because you fell a game short. This wasn’t the 8th seed who snuck through on a lucky run. They were legitimately the best team all year and ran into injury troubles, some untimely bad play from their best players and an extremely hot goaltender.

If I was Gillis I’d bring back the same team and look for an upgrade on my #6/7 defenceman and get a hockey player in for Tanner Glass (hi Marty Reasoner, how would you like a playoff run?).

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Jun 21, 2011 8:02 AM MDT up reply actions  

another chicago vs van series next season will be epic. If both clubs are healthy it would be damn bloody awesome. Van Chi will be the new Det-COl

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jun 21, 2011 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

That’s what I’ve been thinking all playoffs long. It’s just that their awesomeness (vomit) in every facet of the game (or most of them, at least) had helped them overcome their lack of toughness (physical, but also mental, I think, which, I’ll add, I believe only exists in small samples).

Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.

by red army line on Jun 21, 2011 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

The canucks top 6 is skill and small overall, their bottom 6 has two head cases which is not what you need, and anyone “tough” is inexperienced like Glass or Oreskovich(?). They aren’t really tough anyway.

To me they initiated the wars and couldn’t handle it.

I think they need more gritty physical players, but guys who play more fairly and have opponent’s respect. And like everyone they need more experience in the bottom pairings that can play.

I don’t think they’ll do this right, which makes me happy. I hope Chicago does and we see a rematch.

by FastOil on Jun 21, 2011 1:54 PM MDT reply actions  

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