Defensemen at the Draft
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 6:30 AM MDT
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PrintOn Sunday, I looked at several of the top forwards available in the upcoming NHL entry draft in order to see which players the Oilers might target with the 19th overall pick. This time, I'll take a look at defensemen, and even though offense tends to be a less important consideration for the defenders, I'll again run their numbers through Gabriel Desjardins' NHL equivalencies. After the jump, we'll look at the top 8 defenders according to the Central Scouting Bureau, International Scouting Services, and The Hockey News.
Since Central Scouting has two different lists, one for North Americans and another for Europeans, I decided to include the top eight North American defensemen and the top three Europeans. The NHLE numbers are expressed in points per game and include the combined regular season and playoff results, which serves to increase our sample size for each player. The ratings expressed are just the rating amongst defensemen, so there's a very good chance that some of these players will be available to the Oilers at 19th overall, and possibly even 31st overall:
This is a very interesting group of players. Only six players make all three lists, and I think it's fair to say that those six are generally considered sure-fire first rounders and will all probably be gone by the time the Oilers are up to pick 19th overall. If one is still available, I'd be shocked to see the Oilers go in another direction.
As for the rest, they could be gone in the top twenty, but they could also fall well into the second round. The Swedish Elite League is obviously a much more difficult assignment than any of the various North American junior league, a fact that results in significant differences of opinion on Jonas Brodin and Oscar Klefbom. ISS has Klefbom ranked fourth, but THN doesn't have him in their top eight, and ISS reciprocates by not ranking Brodin in their top eight. These are both players who could end up going in the draft's first twenty selections, but they could also last well into the second round.
But the really interesting guy is at the very top of the list. Ryan Murphy is so far out in front that it's ridiculous. How unique is he? Well, I counted up the NHLE for all of the defensemen taken in the first round from 2006 to 2010, and here are the top twenty-five (excluding guys who played in too few games or a league without a proper translation - the big ones missing are Erik Johnson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Erik Karlsson, and Kevin Shattenkirk):
So Murphy's number is right up there with the very best in the last half-decade, alongside Victor Hedman and Ryan Ellis. The kind of offense he's provided is rare indeed; he could be a special player. Dougie Hamilton, meanwhile is in line with many of the other high picks over the last five years. Adam Larsson, meanwhile, doesn't look like he has quite the same offense as Victor Hedman with whom he's often compared. Some will point to his lack of power play time this year compared to last, but that doesn't give me much more confidence, since it's not like he lost that job to a couple of veteran hands (it was apparently Tim Erixon and David Rundblad playing ahead of him), so you'd hope that he could be the best option. And while his 2009-10 season was better, his NHLE was still just 0.234 (including playoffs). It seems to me that offense is (or should be) a very real concern.
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since it’s not like he lost that job to a couple of veteran hands (it was apparently Tim Erixon and David Rundblad playing ahead of him)
I’m not that concerned about that. Both Erixon and Rundblad were drafted 2 years ago in the 1st round. They’re both highly rated prospects that are a full 2 years older at 20 than the 18 year old Larsson.
If Erixon and Rundblad got the prime PP minutes, and Larsson was getting the minutes he did (18 in the regular season, and 22-23 in the playoffs) being cast as a shutdown defenseman then that’s amazing. The surprising thing here would be that Larsson’s coach trusted him more defensively than two older highly rated defencemen in their own.
Might have been a case of using the best defensive player in the defensive role, and letting the other very good defensemen run wild with more favourable ice time. Also Skelleftea seems to have been blessed/cursed with a trio of very good young defensemen.
Also of note is that Larsson, while playing a bigger role and apparently (too bad we can’t confirm this) playing much tougher minutes, posted similar point totals to his contemporaries (Erixon and Rundblad) in their draft year.
Defending Larsson by comparing him to Rundblad and Erixon is probably a poor choice. There is a reason they were drafted 17th and 23rd overall. Its more of a counter argument than anything else: “Hey guys! Don’t beat up on Larsson! His offense compares well to the 17th pick 2 years ago!”. If we knew that Rundblad or Erixon would turn out and be excellent defenders then a comparison might be apt.
There is an important question to ask in all of this… Larsson got all those prime pp minutes from Rundblad and Erixon last year, why did he lose them this year, and is that reason good or bad?
I think you’re missing my point. I’m saying Rundblad and Erixon are both very good players in the SEL, who are both 2 years older than Larsson, so you can’t really beat the kid up for losing PP time to them.
As for him losing PP time, his TOI increased from last season, but his PP time (at least from Skelleftea fans) decreased, so it seems his coach stopped sheltering him, and used him as a shutdown defenceman. The only reasons I can speculate for this are that two very good players who are 2 years older were better offensively than him at this time, and got the prime PP minutes, and/or Larsson was also better defensively than them so was given the tough assignments.
I understood that, but they were 2 years older than Larsson last year too, but apparently he got all the pp time last year – and did very well. This year he lost it, and while looking at Rundblad it’s certainly obvious as to why that would happen, but with Erixon its not. Why did Larsson lose those minutes?
And just saying that he was the better defensive player and as such had his PP time reduced is a reason I’m not sure holds much water. Just thinking about it good defensemen who play tough assignments with top PP time are plentiful. Guys like Rob Blake, Ray Bourque, Niklas Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, Scott Neidermeyer, Chris Pronger and even lesser guys like Kevin Beiksa and Dennis Seidenberg all get the same kind of minutes. So that would seem to suggest that something happened to Larssons ability to produce offense.
The bad thing with this situation is that we don’t have enough data. We don’t know if Larsson rode good luck last year or had a string of bad luck this year. That’s not to say Larsson still isn’t a valuable prospect, he is, and if all he becomes is a shut-down guy with marginal offense and some puck moving ability some team will be lucky to have him, but those players aren’t usually in the conversation for first overall picks.
When do players develop the most? Maybe Erixon and Rundbland took big steps forward over the past couple of years, and Larsson hasn’t as much. Going by the pretty inaccurate measure (but best I have) of “media love” that certainly seems to be the case.
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by red army line on Jun 15, 2011 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions
After a quick look Rundblad had an amazing season in the SEL playing at nearly a PPG pace, but Erixon barely produces half. Based on Larsson’s results as a 17 year old the year previous it wouldnt be far fetched to assume given Erixon’s minutes he could have produced just as much if not more. Why did Erixon get Larsson’s minutes?
To be fair I don’t know much about the team or the situation all these players were in. But we do know the best defenders for the situation tend to get those minutes. So I still think the question “What caused Larsson to go from the best option to not an option on the PP?” is important. Injury is probably one reason…
I get the points you’re trying to make. I think your problem here is the mindset that Larsson is a fully formed #1 defenceman. All of those listed didn’t just become tough minutes defensively solid PP quarterbacks, they developed over time. You’re basically saying that Larsson should have been good enough at 18 playing in the 3rd best mens league in the world, to be the de facto #1 tough minutes defender, and #1 PP defenceman.
I think this is more of a case of having 3 very capable defensemen. One of which is very good defensively. Since Larsson apparently didn’t need sheltering anymore the coach gave him the tough minutes, and allowed the other two to run free a bit. Since Larsson’s TOI went up we know he was playing more EV and PK, so it’s also possible he couldn’t handle as many minutes, so they took him off the PP since they also had 2 capable point men who are less capable at EV and the PK.
I’d put it to you this way, let’s say you have 3 defencemen, 2 at similar offensive levels and one that’s lights out good. The lights out guy is going to be on the #1 PP pretty much. Now you have 2 guys at similar levels, the 1st is a solid 2 way player at 20 years old but the 2nd one is clearly much much more superior defensively as an 18 year old (even if he was sheltered and had nice PP minutes the season before). Since both are a wash offensively, wouldn’t it make sense to put the 1st of the other two on the PP, and recast the 2nd guy to play tough minutes outscorer and PK since he can play that role a great deal better than the 1st guy? Isn’t it also reasonable to not play your 18 year old stud to death at EV, PK, PP when you don’t have to?
Maybe Larsson couldn’t handle more than 23 minutes a night playing tough minutes on a very good team in the SEL as a 17-18 year old AND still have enough to run the PP. There’s no crime in that. Since they had 2 very capable offensive guys they didn’t need to play Larsson to death. In the playoff,s when coaches tend to use the strategy that gets them the best chance to win, note how Larsson’s minutes remained in the 22-24 range. Apparently once he came back from injury he was working at 23 minutes a night so it didn’t really increase in the playoffs though.
I’d be a lot more concerned if Larsson was playing in a Junior league, and didn’t have enough to be the defacto #1 defenceman in all situations and playing monster minutes when up against his teammates. Of course most of this is conjecture on my part, I just don’t think Larsson projects offensively as a Chris Phillips.
There’s a great article here on InLouWeTrust that looks at this discussion we’re having:
You’re basically saying that Larsson should have been good enough at 18 playing in the 3rd best mens league in the world, to be the de facto #1 tough minutes defender, and #1 PP defenceman.
This is basically what Hedman was. If you’re talking about a player under consideration for the first overall pick, I’m not sure it’s an unreasonable expectation.
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Agreed. One could argue that Modo didn’t have any defencemen on their team that was even remotely close to Hedman’s offensive ability other than his partner Timander though. What would Hedman’s point totals looked like if Rundblad was also on that team?
By the same token, I wonder what RHN or Couturier would have posted in the SEL as well.
I’m pretty bullish on Larsson, but I have no idea really. I don’t envy Stu his job this draft.
There’s nothing wrong with being bullish on a prospect.
Just like things like PP Scoring are issues that need to be talked about and examined for RNH the fact that Larsson seems to not have the same resume as his comparables (Hedman) is an important thing to talk about.
In this case its fair to say that Rundblad deserved his upswing in minutes due to production. But its not the same with Erixon. I’d really like to know why he got those pp minutes, especially since his scoring is pretty comparable to a kid 3 years younger.
Larsson’s offensive numbers at NHLE are a little concerning for someone who has been compared to Lidstrom. Now although we’re comparing apples and oranges as he had little to no pp time, and much tougher opposition than his CHL counterparts, the numbers don’t lie. From everything I’ve read about him it may be more accurate to compare Larsson to Chris Phillips rather than Lidstrom. Larsson may very well be an offensive force in the NHL, but from his history to this point it looks like he will may be far better with the defensive aspects of the game with modest offense.
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by Oiltank on Jun 15, 2011 7:56 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
man, I would seriously disagree with that. Rundblad and Erixon are two offensive defenceman that are two years older. If I were the coach, I would play them on the first unit as well, regardless of Larsson’s upside. You need to earn those minutes. If you compare Larsson’s stats at 17-18 to Rundblad and Erixon at the same age, he is tracking better on defence and similar on offense. That’s not to say his offence will abolutely track with Rundblad, but to say it won’t seems inconsistent with the evidence.
He’s a minute eater and has earn the confidence of his coaches with big minutes in playoff games, which is about as big as it gets in hockey. And he earned these minutes playing against guy 5 to 10 years older than him. If he ends up being a big time shut down guy who can score 45 points per season, and anchors the Oilers defence for the next 10 years, he is absolutely worth the 1st pick.
Larsson’s offensive numbers at NHLE are a little concerning for someone who has been compared to Lidstrom
Oiltank, I don’t think Larsson will be a Lidstrom. That’s a pretty tall order. I do think he’s the BPA available though. I don’t see how you can handicap him at this point. Just for comparison’s sake, in his 18 year old season, Lidstrom managed to get into 19 games and scored only 2 points. Different eras and all that, but Lidstrom didn’t become Lidstrom overnight, he developed over time.
Now although we’re comparing apples and oranges as he had little to no pp time, and much tougher opposition than his CHL counterparts, the numbers don’t lie
I don’t know what point you’re making here. So you’re saying RNH, or any other CHL prospect would have scored like a demon in the SEL this year while at the same time getting little to no PP time?
but from his history to this point it looks like he will may be far better with the defensive aspects of the game with modest offense.
You’re forgetting that Larsson as a 16-17 year old, with soft minutes and PP time tied the record for points by a rookie in the SEL. He’s also scored the same number of points this year as Rundblad and Erixon in their draft years (who are both supposed to bring good offence to he NHL based on their NHLE for this season, particularly the former) while supposedly playing tough minutes and not getting prime PP minutes. I’ll also point out that Klefbom and Brodin who are being touted as SEL prospects in this draft with offensive flair, both scored in Larsson’s range as well while apparently playing typical sheltered minutes.
It’s very difficult to handicap or project Larsson at this point. He’s an exceptional prospect. I just wish that Erixon and Rundblad hadn’t been on his team this year, so we could be sure of what he really could do offensively. That said he certainly showed what he could do defensively, while still posting decent offense, as an 18 year old, in arguably the 3rd best men’s league in the world.
This entire draft is such a crap shoot, that it’ll be very interesting to revisit it about 5-6 years out.
Klefbom and Brodin were actually pretty awful offensively going by NHLE. Using their numbers from the SEL, Klefbom had the worst NHLE of the 55 defenders I looked at from 2006-2011 (i.e. the guys taken in the first round who played in a league that I could find an NHLE for), and Brodin was the fourth-worst.
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions
MPS had a pretty bad NHLE as well. You have to keep in mind that NHLE predicts similar ice time at EV PP and PK, as well as quality of team and competition.
So the CHL defenders would be expected to play 20-30 minutes a night, in all situations, and prime PP time, with the best linemates and still post those numbers.
Most prospects coming from the SEL would be expected to play 8-12 minutes a night, not necessarily in all situations, most likely without the best line mates (but likely against softer opposition as well) and post those numbers.
I’d take the offense Larsson brings as a 18 year old if he plays 22-24 minutes a night of only EV and PK against the best qualcomp in the NHL.
Meh, we’re all pretty much betting on horses here, I could be completely wrong 5 years from now when Larsson is a 20 point shutdown D, and RHN is the Canadian Datsyuk. Larsson could just as easily be a 45-50 point #1 D that controls the flow of a game though.
You have to keep in mind that NHLE predicts similar ice time at EV PP and PK, as well as quality of team and competition.
This isn’t true. NHLE compares what players in League A scored in Year One to what those same players scored in League B in Year Two. The implicit assumption in the numbers for players going from the CHL to the NHL is less ice time and less PP time (since that’s what happens to most players who move from the CHL to the NHL).
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
It’s been a while since I read up on NHLE, and I don’t exactly trust it very much (especially not for defensemen, where points can vary wildly with usage), but I think he’s also saying that NHLE surmises similar ice time among the players it is comparing to begin with. When comparing 18 year olds in a men’s league, it’s going to get stuff wildly wrong from time to time (i.e. player A plays 20 minutes on bad team versus player B playing 10 minutes on a stacked team).
I’m with you when it comes to liking NHLE a lot more for forwards than for defensemen, and you’re right that it assumes similar circumstances for all of the players too.
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 12:27 PM MDT up reply actions
//Larsson’s offensive numbers at NHLE are a little concerning for someone who has been compared to Lidstrom. //
Not when compared with Lidstrom’s numbers at the same age.
In Lidstroms 2nd SEL season he scored 16 points in less games.
We dont really have enough information, because if you just want to go off stats both Jonas Brodin and Oskar Klefbom have had comparable seasons to Lidstroms @ 17 in the SEL. Anyone want to make that comparison?
Not when compared with Lidstrom’s numbers players taken in the second and third round at the same age.
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by Scott Reynolds on Jun 15, 2011 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions
Hear hear. I’m having trouble touting a guy with single digit points as first overall. Sorry, does that make me a bad person?
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by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 16, 2011 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions
If Oleksiak or Siemens somehow fall to 19 they could be the steal of the draft.
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