Sam Gagner Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Jun 1, 2011 4:30 PM MDT in Statistical Analysis

Sam Gagner is a divisive topic in Edmonton. Mention his name and some love his future, while others scream for a trade. Among the writers here at The Copper & Blue, I hold Gagner in rare air. I believe he's key to the Oilers' future and that he's going to be an excellent two-way center in the coming years. Unfortunately, he's not been able to carry the weight of such a lofty ranking. His struggles are to be expected of a 21-year-old, but not from a 4-year-veteran.

Chance % Team Rank: 12/23
Chance % Fwd. Rank: 7/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 13/23
Diff/60% Fwd. Rank: 8/15

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	31	35	31	35	0.470	0.453
11-20	71	78	40	43	0.482	0.401
21-30	118	132	47	54	0.465	0.449
31-40	175	201	57	69	0.452	0.467
41-50	215	241	40	40	0.500	0.531
51-60	251	284	36	43	0.456	0.470
61-70	271	317	20	33	0.377	0.454
71-82						0.486

The most disheartening part of the above table is the fall-off in the late season when the injuries to the rest of the team struck. He had a real chance to shine and he didn't take advantage.

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Sam's inability to take advantage of his big opportunity is obvious on the graph.

Scoring Chances WOWY

	With Gagner			Without Gagner			Gagner Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	100	98	0.505	249	23	0.528	171	219	0.438
14	78	85	0.479	231	218	0.514	193	232	0.454
23	58	82	0.414	95	103	0.480	213	235	0.475
27	67	53	0.558	181	195	0.481	204	264	0.436
28	39	57	0.406	124	207	0.375	232	260	0.472
83	82	73	0.529	111	125	0.470	189	244	0.436
91	103	144	0.417	162	178	0.476	168	173	0.493

2	57	71	0.445	189	228	0.453	214	246	0.465
5	93	112	0.454	239	265	0.474	178	205	0.465
6	67	57	0.540	101	136	0.426	204	260	0.440
26	68	90	0.430	171	211	0.448	203	227	0.472
43	36	38	0.486	104	122	0.460	235	279	0.457
49	69	92	0.429	209	268	0.438	202	225	0.473
58	35	39	0.473	127	104	0.550	236	278	0.459
77	104	112	0.481	267	280	0.488	167	205	0.449

The WOWY gives us some insight into the second half of Gagner's season especially when looking at his two most common linemates, Linus Omark and Magnus Paajarvi. Gagner was not good with either of the Swedes, but that doesn't help much to get a picture of Gagner either because he spent so much time with Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky, with whom he was very good. Bruce and Ryan will no doubt touch on consistency when it comes to the young center: consistency of teammates, linemates, coaching staff and defensemen, so I'll leave that discussion to the experts.

Note the Ryan Jones effect is ever-present here as well.

Tweet Comment 9 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

So, Gagner’s numbers are worse than Cogliano’s?… I wouldn’t have expected that, especially since Cogliano was in there until the end after all the injuries.

by ghs on Jun 1, 2011 8:38 PM MDT reply actions

I think we should put this “four year veteran” thing out of further discussions. He was shoved into the league by a team desperate to make something happen. On a good team he’s about to start his second (maybe third) year and is doing a damn fine job of it too.

Watch RNH get Gagnered™ next season.

by David S on Jun 1, 2011 10:08 PM MDT reply actions

On a good team he’s about to start his second (maybe third) year and is doing a damn fine job of it too.

I agree completely, David. His ELC was completely wasted.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 1, 2011 10:17 PM MDT up reply actions

Under the current CBA, you want your kids to start at 20. No sooner, no later. You only “own” them for 7 years and they will be overall more productive between 20 and 27 than between 18 and 25. Why a team would risk giving up 2 of the most productive years of a players career is beyond me.

by gcw_rocks on Jun 1, 2011 10:29 PM MDT up reply actions

Mini-packs. Seriously.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 1, 2011 10:36 PM MDT up reply actions

That is, of course, insane when you are in a hot hockey market.

by gcw_rocks on Jun 1, 2011 11:00 PM MDT up reply actions

I may be in the minority here, but I still think Gagner will take some large steps in the next 2-3 years. His thinks the game at a level that most of the team is incapable of(Exception Eberle); I won’t be giving up on him yet.

The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!

by OilLeak on Jun 2, 2011 12:33 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs

Great, so just about the time he gets good he will be a FA and head off somewhere else…

by gcw_rocks on Jun 2, 2011 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

It is the Oiler way.

by David S on Jun 2, 2011 10:33 PM MDT up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Oilers Schedule

Last 5 Games

@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sat 04/07	L 0 - 3
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Thu 04/05	OT - L 2 - 3
@ Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Mon 04/02	L 0 - 2
@ Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Sun 04/01	W 2 - 1
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Fri 03/30	L 1 - 4

Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (27-11, .711)
St. Louis Blues (24-10, .706)
Vancouver Canucks (22-10, .688)
Los Angeles Kings (18-11, .621)
San Jose Sharks (18-13, .581)
Phoenix Coyotes (20-15, .571)
Nashville Predators (18-14, .563)
Chicago Blackhawks (21-19, .525)
Colorado Avalanche (16-19, .457)
Dallas Stars (18-22, .450)
Anaheim Ducks (14-19, .424)
Edmonton Oilers (18-25, .419)
Calgary Flames (13-21, .382)
Columbus Blue Jackets (14-31, .311)
Minnesota Wild (8-22,.267)

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (31-13, .711)
Boston Bruins (27-11, .711)
New York Rangers (25-16, .610)
Philadelphia Flyers (21-17, .553)
New Jersey Devils (18-16, .529)
Ottawa Senators (19-17, .528)
Washington Capitals (20-19, .513)
Montreal Canadiens (16-19, .457)
Winnipeg Jets (15-19, .441)
Buffalo Sabres (14-18, .438)
Carolina Hurricanes (13-17, .433)
Florida Panthers (14-19, .424)
Toronto Maple Leafs (17-24, .415)
New York Islanders (8-23, .258)
Tampa Bay Lightning (10-30, .250)

Division Standings

Central (79-58, .577)
Atlantic (68-50, .576)
Pacific (62-54, .534)
Northeast (69-65, .515)
Northwest (49-69, .415)
Southeast (51-81, .386)

Network Bar

The Copper & Blue -

An Edmonton Oilers Fan Site - poise of analysis and discussion