Armchair GM: 2011-2012 Lineup

by Diomedes7 on May 7, 2011 7:36 PM MDT

Editor's Note: Everyone loves to project rosters and build lines - it's a popular hockey fan pastime. This FanPost by Diomedes is the first crack at doing so for 2011-2012.

So what is the roster going to look like next year? Is RNH going to be wearing Copper & Blue? Will Dubnyk take over between the pipes? What do your lines look like? More after the jump.

TSN is projecting that the Oilers are going to take RNH and play him with Taylor Hall. If that is true, the Top 6 may look like this (bold = signed for next year):

LW            -         C           -       RW
Hall               RNH                Hemsky
Paajarvi          Horcoff             Eberle

After those two rather large assumptions, it gets even less clear on the bottom 6, but if Cogs is let go and Ryan Jones is re-signed, they may roll with something like this:

LW            -         C           -       RW
Jones        Gagner            Omark
Reddox           Fraser             Brule

With Hartikainen back down for more seasoning.

On D...re-sign Smid, Peckham, and Chorney

Whitney - Gilbert
Smid - Petry
Foster - Teubert
(Chorney - Peckham)

B/w the Pipes:

1. Dubnyk
2. Khabby

Poll

The Oilers #1 goaltender ought to be...

Dubnyk

263 votes

Khabby

20 votes

283 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 39 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

90% for Dubnyk, so far

18 of 20 votes.
but will the team finally give him the net?

by Diomedes7 on May 7, 2011 8:01 PM MDT reply actions

My guess is that those are Flames fans casting votes for Khabibulin

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Derek, will DD get a chance to be THE man next year?
Any talk of buying out Khabby?
(fingers crossed)

by Diomedes7 on May 7, 2011 9:32 PM MDT up reply actions

Buying out Khabibulin gets the OIlers nothing. The cap hit stays.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 9:33 PM MDT up reply actions

All of it? I thought a fraction could be jettisoned?

by Diomedes7 on May 7, 2011 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions

I don’t see why buying him out does any good. The Oilers won’t be spending to the cap, and if they buy him out his reduced cap hit may affect the team when it’s actually good.

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by red army line on May 8, 2011 12:27 AM MDT up reply actions

you may be right, RAL
i was thinking addition by subtraction
let DD have the net
Khabby only has 1 more year on his contract

by Diomedes7 on May 8, 2011 6:53 AM MDT up reply actions

I think the Oilers can make a better bet with the money saved in buyin Khabibulin out. The Oilers probably aren’t going to be a cap team, which means saving money is important. Even if they are, because it’s a 35+ contract, Khabibulin getting bought out won’t hurt them down the road. I’m pretty sure a buyout on his deal would result in the following:

Cap Hit:
2011-12 – 3.75M
2012-13 – 3.75M
2013-14 – 0
2014-15 – 0

Cash:
2011-12 – 1.25M
2012-13 – 1.25M
2013-14 – 1.25M
2014-15 – 1.25M

This seems like a no-brainer to me.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on May 8, 2011 8:14 AM MDT up reply actions

If that’s the case (and Capgeek thinks so too), then I agree. I didn’t realize the 35+ makes the hit stay within the two years.

by red army line on May 8, 2011 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions

Same here. If capgeek.com is accurate, they should buy him out as soon as the period opens. The second it opens.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 8, 2011 9:10 AM MDT up reply actions

I doubt Reddox will be here…They will give Temmu the spot before Red just like they did with JFJ. If Jones isn’t here, then Red may be here, but I think they will look for NHL players for that role.

I’m beginning to think Tambi knows what C&B know about Jones, after all he must read the blogs here. I think he’s offering too little in order to entice Jones to test free agency. Otherwise, I’m sure they could figure something out for a 3-4th line plugger by now.

Teubert will be in the AHL, barely played a half a season in the A. Needs more time.

Chorney may be on the block, his skill set is comparable to Gilbert, Petry, but not as good. If not, he’s in the A at the beginning of the year and doesn’t get a call up because he needs to clear waivers.

Finally, I highly doubt RNH would start on the first line. He needs some sheltered time to build his confidence. 2-3 line, very sheltered to begin. But at some point he will be with Hall/Hem/Ebs.

Fraser/Brule are question marks. Both could be bought out cheap (for diff reasons) One sucks, the other is sick.

Cogs or Gags could be gone….I expect something to give at center, otherwise, were going to suck at faceoffs for another year.

LW – C – RW
T Hall Horcoff Hemsky
Paajarvi RNH Eberle
Temmu Gagner Omark
UFA VV Brule/UFA
Mac

Whitney – Gilbert
Smid – Petry
Foster – UFA
Peckham

B/w the Pipes:

1. Dubnyk
2. Khabby

by Rob Dombowsky on May 7, 2011 8:13 PM MDT reply actions

i like this lineup better
team looks to be shaping up damn well

by Diomedes7 on May 7, 2011 9:39 PM MDT up reply actions

agree

“Fraser/Brule are question marks. Both could be bought out cheap (for diff reasons) One sucks, the other is sick” Totally agree, what has either player done since being in an Oilers uni? At least Cogs has shown some potential (from year one). Give hime one more year when our top forwards aren’t hurt for the majority of the year.

by oil_fan'n'usa on May 7, 2011 11:25 PM MDT up reply actions

Teubert playing ahead of Peckham?

Unless Peckham takes a step back next season, it would be a surprise to see him as a healthy scratch.

by Jamie Lewis on May 7, 2011 8:17 PM MDT reply actions

Peckham and Foster will form a line, whether Petry makes it into the NHL seems to me not sure it will also call up players needed. Buy a veteran Defender seems probably

by Screaming69 on May 8, 2011 12:05 AM MDT up reply actions

agree

Teddy was a bright spot this year. He will be a 3rd pairing man, maybe even 2nd pairing with Gilbert again. Teubert will be riding the bus again in OKC.

by will.m on May 8, 2011 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions

Langenbruner provides Horcoff with leadership help at a good price

I like:

Signing a veteran proven depth guy up front: Jamie Langenbrunner, 2 years 2.8/yr

Hall Horcoff Eberle
Paajarvi Gagner Hemsky
Langenbrunner Cogliano Omark
Harti VV Jones
Extra: Reddox, Fraser

On D we need to sign an offensive Dman, Wisniewski or Erhoff type of what’s available.

Whitney – Gilbert
Smid – Erhoff
Peckham-Petry

Extra: Foster, Teubert, Plante, Chorney

Goalies:

Dubnyk
(Hopefully Fasth)
Khabibulin

If we draft Larsson he has a chance to make the team, RNH goes back to junior and leads team Canada at the WJC.

by Ca$h-Money! on May 7, 2011 8:19 PM MDT reply actions

Someone asked this question of me on Nation Radio today. I have no idea what the answer is, but I’ll take a pass for fun:

Hall – Horcoff – Eberle

Cogliano – Gagner – Hemsky

Paajarvi – Reasoner/Handzus/Belanger/Arnott/Fiddler – Omark

Jones – Fraser – Reddox

Whitney – Petry
Peckham – Gilbert
Smid – Larsson
Foster

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 9:43 PM MDT reply actions

You’d play Larsson right away?

by Passive Voice on May 8, 2011 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions

No, but the Oilers will.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 8, 2011 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions

just like they will play RNH.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 8, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions

TSN is projecting that the Oilers are going to take RNH and play him with Taylor Hall.

That’s nuts. In the western conference – this is a very bad idea

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 9:49 PM MDT reply actions

that will not happen in 2011-12

by Screaming69 on May 8, 2011 12:45 AM MDT up reply actions

It seems you are completely closed to the idea. If he legitimately earned his spot on the team by say outplaying our 3rd best C (Cogliano?) would you keep him down? There are some things to think about:

1) The first OA is rarely sent back to the junior leagues. Going back to 1990 (the limits of my quick search), approximately ZERO forwards drafted in the first overall spot have been sent down (Ovechkin a special case because of the lockout). Erik Johnson, Philips, Berard, and Jovocop were the only others in that 21 year span (all Dmen).

2) What will he gain by going back to junior? I could be wrong, but he’s already one of the best players at the CHL level, and aside from continuing to bulk up (which he should be doing regardless of where he plays), there isn’t much value to be gained.

3) How much effectiveness will be lost in maximizing RNH’s overall value in Oilers silks? I’ve argued this many times before: I think the difference between players who are started as 18 year olds versus 19 years olds in terms of total performance per cap dollar will be negligible. Basically, for the duration of their stay, a summation of all their contribution to wins (say GVT) divided by their (average?) cap hit would be more or less the same in either scenario. Which makes 4 very important:

4) Only include him on an NHL roster if hes clearly ready to take that step.

Some people same to have taken the stance that in all cases promoting the 18 year old is the wrong move. I think NHL GMs are indicating they believe otherwise, so there is some disconnect there.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 8, 2011 8:07 AM MDT up reply actions

I read his opinion as more like "kids tend to not play defense in the NHL all that well, and putting two on the same line would be a disaster if, say, they get caught against the Thorntons, Toews, Datsyuks of the West.

by red army line on May 8, 2011 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions

Hall is an exception to this then? He had one of the toughest Corsi Rel QoC and maintained some of the best Corsi Rel numbers on the team. I’m not saying RNH can do the same thing, but I’m not saying he can’t either.

Even if he’s not the kind of guy who can balance the chances for and against, you can still run him in a soft minutes parade as long as he can contribute offensively. Granted he would sometimes get targeted by coaches when his line is stuck out (or at away games I suppose), but some of that will happen regardless of when he plays.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 8, 2011 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions

And it’s a pretty sure bet that 19/20/21 RNH is better value on his ELC than 18/19/20 RNH.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on May 9, 2011 3:27 PM MDT up reply actions

i think if oilers select RNH, dude should go back for 1 year for two things:
he is very slight so needs to bulk up.
Also he id very young and anothey year in junior will definitely help him.
Look at Seguin. He jumped straight to nhl, but he has not played well at all. I am not talking about points, but just playing hockey. His rel corsi is terrible and has been benched the entire playoffs.
So if one can agree that the 1st overall this season is close to Seguin that Hall, another season in the dub will only help. Other sean couturier, I am not too keen on anyone else making the jump to Nhl. In fact even SC will benefit from going back to the for a season to work on his skating.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 8, 2011 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions

All I’m really saying is what if he earns his spot? Hall certainly did and he showed why: he could play effectively at both ends of the ice.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 8, 2011 1:27 PM MDT up reply actions

What does earning his spot mean? A good training camp and a good showing in the first 9 games enough?
Gagner ‘earned’ his spot after training camp, but we can all agree that more seasoning in the Chl would have been better.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 8, 2011 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions

I mean he’s at least as good as the #3C. In other words, if management believes he could outscore (and I mean in the plus minus way) a guy like Cogliano.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 9, 2011 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Side note: whether or not Tambo & co. can clearly evaluate his ability to outscore/play at an NHL level is probably up for debate.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 9, 2011 12:22 PM MDT up reply actions

Lets say he is able to play in the nhl. Andrew Cogliano scored 35 points as a 1 million dollar player. How many points do you think RNH has to score to replace Cogs given that RNH will be in his 1st year ELC @ 3.75mil? which can be delayed due to development and an FA point of view.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 9, 2011 6:14 PM MDT up reply actions

agree

If RNH is the chosen one. Give him 9 games sell some jerseys and send him down to RD.

1) This is a long rebuild there’s no need to rush him (i don’t care if usually a 1st pick goes straight to the NHL) he needs to make weight and throwing 3 lines of rooks and sophomores does nothing for his development. Playing another year of junior would be great for his game (remember we sent Eberle down 2 times) plus it leaves his ELC for when he will be NHL ready.

2) If for some crazy reason he is able to make the team, EDM should shelter him with hemsky and penner. whoops another solid LW maybe we can buy Smytty from LA.

3) That being said if we draft RNH and play him immediately in the show that’s when the potential for a ‘bust’ increases. Maybe if there’s a top prospect playing down the road the Oil Kings can sell tickets.

4) Sorry for long post all this being said I want SC or Larsson and McNeil or the Prince of Persia.

by will.m on May 8, 2011 10:19 AM MDT up reply actions

Carter Might be Available

Some thoughts on this:
Hopkins – assuming the Oilers take him, the consensus is that he should be returned to junior next year. Unless you listen to Stauffer of course.
Jones – will take an overpay to re-sign. I think overpays should be limited to Centers and D-men
Brule – meh
Teubert – He won’t make the Oilers on merit.
Peckham – Is in the Top 6
Chorney – He won’t likely ever be good enough to help the Oilers win
Khabibulin – Buy him out

If, at the start of the season, Hopkins, Reddox, Fraser, Brule, Foster, Teubert and Khabibulin are in the Oiler’s Top 20, the Oilers are in lottery country again.

by Mr DeBakey on May 8, 2011 11:43 AM MDT reply actions

Carter might be available for a goalie, which sadly we don’t have to offer up in trade, unless we work a 3-way deal. I would love to see Carter centring Hall and Eberle. That would be a great line….

by gcw_rocks on May 13, 2011 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions

Who should start for the Oilers? It’s simple. Are we going to dick around for another year and get another high pick because CHICAGO MODEL, MOTHERFUCKERS? If so, Khabibulin. Duh. If the answer is “try to develop the kids, move up a few spots in the standings, take a few strides,” Dubnyk all the way. Actually, the answer should almost be Dubnyk regardless, because how are you going to develop a goalie by having him sit on the bench and eat hot dogs for 50-60 games per year? Look at how well that turned out for Deslauriers.

I know what I’d rather do, but I’m not getting paid millions of dollars to make these decisions. Unfortunately.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 8, 2011 12:32 PM MDT reply actions

i agree, but what do you think WILL (as opposed to should) happen?

do you think mgmt would be more likely to roll w/ DD if they bolster the D corps with a quality signing?

by Diomedes7 on May 8, 2011 3:45 PM MDT up reply actions

If I were the Oilers GM:

Its hard to set the complete roster because I would be actively looking to make hockey trades and I would have few untouchables as I did it.

I would aggressively pursue Bogosian from Atlanta. In play to pry him out of Atlanta: Hemsky, Gagner, Cogs, and Gilbert. Surely some combination of those 4 players would do it.

If that failed, I would turn my eyes to Wishart with the Islanders. Wishart, while younger, brings more hits per game, can block shots, and fewer give aways than say Gilbert based on his 20 game audition with the Isles last season. Getting a veteran under contract may be enticing to Snow who probably needs to show Tavares he is working to improve the team and he struggles to reach the cap, so maybe Wishart for Gilbert?

Like Derek, I would draft Larsson and look to 2012 to get my 1st line centre, or trades.

Building from the goal out, I would have

DD
Fasth/Theodore

On defence:

Whitney – FA (Bieksa/Erhoff/Wisniewski/Pitkanen) / Bogosian

Smid – Petry

Wishart/FA (Eminger) – Peckham

Foster/Chorney compete for 7th d-man

Up front
Offensive centres are hard to come by via FA this summer. Connolly is probably the only one the Oilers would have a legit shot at, and with his fragile noggin, it would be a one year deal, maybe 2 but no more than that.

Hall – Overpaid FA centre on a 1-2 year deal or one acquired via trade – Eberle

Paajarvi – Horcoff – Omark

Hartikainen – Handzus/Belanger/Sutherby/Fiddler – Upshall (I would not be shy about paying up to $2-2.5M per on a 2 year deal given cap space for the centre and winger)

Jones – FA (Gordon/Reasoner) – Asham

Gone – Hemsky on a hockey trade (player for player), Gagner (Trade if I am able to get a centre back in some trade or able to sign Connolly, otherwise he stays to centre the top line), Cogs (Trade), Fraser (OKC), Khabby (KHL loan or buy out).

Not on the team – Larsson (SEL or AHL) for 1 more year of seasoning. Lander – 1 year of AHL with possible mid-season call up.

by gcw_rocks on May 13, 2011 9:23 AM MDT reply actions

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