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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Ryan Jones Scoring Chances 2010-2011

Do, or do not.  There is no try.
--Yoda

 

In a very short time, Ryan Jones has become the fan favorite in Edmonton.  As is typical of guys who always look like they're trying very hard, Jones' effort, along with his hair and tendency to fall often have struck a chord with the fan base.  He's the working-class hero. 

Unfortunately, all of that hard work isn't showing up in the underlying numbers.

Chance % Team Rank:  23/23
Chance % Fwd Rank:  15/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 23/23
Diff/60 Fwd Rank: 15/15

Star-divide

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

 

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 10 26 10 26 0.278 0.453
11-20 25 50 15 24 0.385 0.401
21-30 47 96 22 46 0.324 0.449
31-40 65 135 18 39 0.316 0.467
41-50 94 174 29 39 0.426 0.531
51-60 106 192 12 18 0.400 0.470
61-70 130 232 24 40 0.375 0.454
71-82 163 264 33 32 0.508 0.486

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Jonesseasonsegment_medium

 

Jones posted a single segment above the team average and aside from his final .508 segment his next highest segment was .426.  In four segments, he was 10 percentage points lower than the team average in the same segment.

Scoring Chances WOWY


With Jones
Without Jones
Jones Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
13 49 66 0.426
241 263 0.478
114 198 0.365
14 22 17 0.564
287 286 0.501
141 247 0.363
16 26 63 0.292
64 72 0.471
137 201 0.405
22 12 30 0.286
61 63 0.492
151 234 0.392
23 10 35 0.222
143 150 0.488
153 229 0.401
46 10 23 0.303
35 36 0.493
153 241 0.388
67 13 31 0.295
95 123 0.436
150 233 0.392
85 45 52 0.464
66 81 0.449
118 212 0.358
89 39 57 0.406
232 260 0.472
124 207 0.375
91 51 63 0.447
214 259 0.452
112 201 0.358












2 41 66 0.383
205 233 0.468
122 198 0.381
5 57 95 0.375
275 282 0.494
106 169 0.385
6 21 36 0.368
147 157 0.484
142 228 0.384
26 42 76 0.356
197 225 0.467
121 188 0.392
43 23 36 0.390
117 124 0.485
140 228 0.380
49 42 77 0.353
236 283 0.455
121 187 0.393
58 24 25 0.490
138 118 0.539
139 239 0.368
77 61 96 0.389
310 296 0.512
102 168 0.378

 

Jones' .382 season percentage was the worst on the team.  It's pretty clear to me that Jordan Eberle and Jeff Petry wear some sort of talisman that allows them to fend off the effect of Ryan Jones on their chance rates.  What I find remarkable about the "Without Jones" column is how much closer so many players get to 50% without him.

Comment 19 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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2 years $2.1 mil/year

Book it.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on May 6, 2011 4:42 PM MDT reply actions  

Three years.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 6, 2011 4:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

It boggles my mind how this guy looks so horrible in every underlying stat, yet score so many goals.

Insert Witty Comment Here

by VanillaAcid on May 6, 2011 6:00 PM MDT reply actions  

JONES IS THE OILERS PERSONIFIED

it’s not even about the goal scoring, it’s about how he is the most popular Oiler outside of Hall and Eberle.

I think the fanbase will lose it if we don’t resign him, and part of me agrees with them even if I know how bad he is statistically. There is just something about how much he seems to want it that makes you root for the guy. He is dead last in every metric, but I can’t help but love him.

4.5 million/3years

by Ca$h-Money! on May 6, 2011 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

Same way Brule did it last year… get on a run and get some breaks.

Though I will say this… Jonesy was a legit goal scorer in college so I don’t doubt that it’s a skill he possesses. Some guys are just better at certain things than others.

That being said, I don’t think he scores enough to make up for what he gives up.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on May 6, 2011 7:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

Does it confuse you that he gives up so many chances when he’s on the ice?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good bets

Perfect storm, bad underlying numbers….pass on anything over 1 million. Take shorter term, do whatever.

This guy just had what is likely a completely unsustainable career year. It’s insane how many times he falls down. It’s easy to see why he is likeable but he does not make this team really any better down the line. Maybe you give him a bit over the bottom end just because team chemistry might warrant such a move (1.1 million) but if this guy is not a short term lower end contract type player, I don’t know what is.

Thank the jebus he doesn’t have any cup rings.

by Chartleys on May 6, 2011 6:53 PM MDT reply actions  

Perfect storm, bad underlying numbers….pass on anything over 1 million. Take shorter term, do whatever.

The funny thing is, they can overpay him next year and it doesn’t matter. They can give him 4 million. But if they do, it’s just another instance of poor decision-making.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 8:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

Jones would be a contract extension of 2 years worth of 1.2 million per year? Where he should to be use in the 4th Line, for which he would be too expensive. Hockey Future writes: “Not the quickest guy, he is big, strong and can score garbage goals.” Something that certainly can use the Oilers.
The Oilers will have to make also a decision on O’Marra (700k in 2010-11) or will we see JFJ again.What you think about 20 – 16 – 28 4th line, as season starter?
The Oilers better should save their money at JFJ (650k?) and better invest somewhere!

by Screaming69 on May 7, 2011 12:41 AM MDT reply actions  

Who is 20?

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 7, 2011 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions  

42 in the NHL = O’Marra

by Screaming69 on May 7, 2011 11:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

O’Marra might be a worse NHL player than Jacques.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on May 9, 2011 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions  

I’d like to see a fourth line of Harti – VV – Jones if Lander does not make the club, or Harti – Cogliano – Jones is Lander does make the club.

by Ca$h-Money! on May 7, 2011 7:59 AM MDT reply actions  

I hope this means you want them to sign Reasoner and Handzus.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 8:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

Vanilla – 18 G 7A

Part of the reason Jones is killing everyone’s stats and his own is he is looking for goals first. He’s the guy standing in front of the net stick in the air calling for the set up while his teamates do all the work. He’s the guy looking for the breakaway before his check.

Jones has some offensive ability, but not nearly enough to ignore the rest of the game. He hits the boards as often as the player he’s trying to hit, which is a symptom of the same attitude. Gets the credit for a hit without risking a reaction from the opponent, or disrupting the opponent’s game.

He seems like a classic dog doer – charming and scored just enough to be interesting to the brass, knows how to seem busy but does nothing important. Likes the spot light enough to get some goals but won’t do the heavy lifting that wins games and is the purpose of his role on the team as a bottom 6 player.

Jones is still an appealing guy, one of those you can’t help but like. He will likely be signed so let’s hope he wants to take a step and become a good contributor for his team in an appropriate way.

by FastOil on May 7, 2011 10:09 AM MDT reply actions  

This is one of the simplest, yet most complete, breakdowns of Jones’ game I’ve ever read.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 8:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

My favorite part is how playing with each of 16,22,23 and 67 creates a vortex of suck where each player (including Jones) is significantly better apart.

Its like his horrid dzone coverage and neutral zone play creates a situation where his line mates have to clean up his defensive messes and 16,22,23 and 67 simply don’t have the defensive game to do it.

Problem is that in your bottom 6 you don’t defensive liabilities. You players with some defensive deficiency should be making up for it in offense.

That the Oilers have very few Actual NHL players in the bottom 6 is a much bigger problem than most make it out to be. The top 2 line actually saw off at a pretty reasonable clip for a 30th place team full of kids.

Bottom 6, 2D, 4D and 1/2G are priorities on this team in FA , and other than 2D shouldn’t be too tough to get. (I think they need 1C too, but impossible to get in FA)

Its somewhat heartening that he turned down a extension at the trade deadline. You know that Oilers look at SC, so I’m hoping for the best.

by Woodguy on May 7, 2011 10:16 PM MDT reply actions  

The top six by Ch%:

4: 0.521
10: 0.517
14: 0.505
27: 0.500
89: 0.461
83: 0.494

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 7, 2011 10:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

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