Lightning vs. Bruins Scoring Chances - Series Totals

BOSTON, MA - MAY 27: Dwayne Roloson #35 of the Tampa Bay Lightning congratulates Tim Thomas #30 of the Boston Bruins after the Bruins defeated the Lightening 1 to 0 in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2011 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Garden on May 27, 2011 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

At various times throughout the season, I've thought to myself "Tim Thomas is no Dominik Hasek..." nearly every time some announcer (hey Jack Edwards) tried to make the connection.  And while Thomas still isn't as good as Hasek was, he's starting to sniff rarefied air reserved for the all-time greats.  

Thomas' Bruins were outmatched in every area by the Lightning, but Thomas held them in nearly every game and delivered them to the Stanley Cup finals.

Tampa should leave the series with a feeling of accomplishment, even in a loss.  They outplayed the Bruins by a wide enough margin that only superhuman goaltending could do them in.  And it did.

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. Finally, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome scripts.








Scoring Chances - Tampa vs. Boston, Series Total

NHL Game Numbers 30311, 30312, 30313, 30314, 30315, 30316, 30317

Team Totals, Tampa in Blue

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 36 28 29 20 6 4 0 4 0 0 0 0
2 41 37 30 26 11 7 0 0 0 1 0 0
3 32 22 26 19 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 109 87 85 65 21 14 2 4 0 1 0 0
*4v4 chances do do not count as even strength time on ice. See here for an explanation.

 

The Lightning were +22 in scoring chances for the series, including +20 at even strength.  Overall, they beat the Bruins in every period, both at even strength at on the power play.  All things being equal, the difference is ~3 goals.  But things were not equal with Thomas in net.


Scoring Chances by Player - Tampa

# Player EV PP SH
2 Eric Brewer  132 23 33 21.8 14 8 19.5 0 1
4 Vincent Lecavalier  113 29 22 22.9 15 0 1.2 0 1
5 Mattias Ohlund  114 17 25 0.23 2 6 21.1 0 0
6 Ryan Malone  91.2 20 24 9.12 6 1 1.43 0 0
7 Brett Clark  96.6 23 18 8.32 6 6 12.3 0 0
8 Randy Jones  14.8 3 2 0.62 0 0 0.28 0 0
9 Steve Downie  86.4 25 11 21.2 7 0 0 0 0
10 Sean Bergenheim  67.9 14 10 0 0 4 10.7 0 0
12 Simon Gagne  86.1 24 19 20.8 13 1 3.88 0 1
16 Teddy Purcell  92.3 27 16 11.6 6 0 0.1 0 0
18 Adam Hall  66.8 10 14 0.62 0 7 22.9 0 0
19 Dominic Moore  93.9 26 23 4.92 0 5 18 0 0
26 Martin St. Louis  118 31 19 25.4 14 0 0.45 0 1
35 Dwayne Roloson  247 55 49 15.3 16 12 28.1 0 1
39 Mike Lundin  91.3 25 15 0.93 0 4 13.4 0 0
41 Mike Smith  91.5 29 16 13.1 5 2 15.5 0 0
42 Dana Tyrell  16.3 3 1 0 0 1 1.77 0 0
44 Nate Thompson  73.9 9 10 0.62 0 8 23.6 0 0
47 Marc-Andre Bergeron  97.6 36 9 11.1 8 0 0.03 0 0
49 Blair Jones  25.4 9 5 0 0 1 0.82 0 0
77 Victor Hedman  138 42 27 1.12 0 4 20.2 0 0
91 Steven Stamkos  106 30 22 23.9 14 0 0.03 0 1

 

Tampa's top pairing of Brewer and Ohlund were out-chanced, as was the fourth line, but aside from those players, the rest of the team did some amazing work, especially at even strength. 

Tampa - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
47 Marc-Andre Bergeron  5.535 1.384 4.151
9 Steve Downie  4.341 1.910 2.431
49 Blair Jones  5.311 2.951 2.361
41 Mike Smith  4.752 2.622 2.130
42 Dana Tyrell  2.755 0.918 1.837
16 Teddy Purcell  4.390 2.602 1.789
39 Mike Lundin  4.110 2.466 1.644
77 Victor Hedman  4.573 2.940 1.633
26 Martin St. Louis  3.927 2.407 1.520
91 Steven Stamkos  4.228 3.101 1.127
8 Randy Jones  3.044 2.029 1.015
4 Vincent Lecavalier  3.848 2.919 0.929
10 Sean Bergenheim  3.093 2.209 0.884
12 Simon Gagne  4.184 3.312 0.872
7 Brett Clark  3.571 2.795 0.776
19 Dominic Moore  4.154 3.675 0.479
35 Dwayne Roloson  3.346 2.981 0.365
44 Nate Thompson  1.827 2.030 -0.203
6 Ryan Malone  3.289 3.947 -0.658
18 Adam Hall  2.245 3.143 -0.898
5 Mattias Ohlund  2.228 3.276 -1.048
2 Eric Brewer  2.612 3.748 -1.136

 

I wrote about Marc-Andre Bergeron's dominance throughout the series and I'm still without an explanation.  By the chances he was the best player in the series, and the margin isn't close.  Taking all regular players into considering, Bergeron led the series in chances for, chances against and chance differential.  He was 36 CF - 9 CA for the series, or +4.15 for every 15 minutes of even strength time.  Just for the hell of it I extrapolated those numbers for a full regular season:  421 CF - 105 CA, or ~64 GF - 16 GA.  If Bergeron played a season like he played that series, he would have been somewhere around +48 on the season.  I understand his minutes were well-managed and he was heavily protected, but he destroyed those protected minutes.

Victor Hedman was no slouch, either.  Hedman was +15 for the series, second for the Lightning, just ahead of Steve Downie's +14.  Except for his HUA in game 3, Hedman played like a defenseman of 30, not 20.

 

 

Scoring Chances by Player - Boston

# Player EV PP SH
11 Gregory Campbell  46 6 15 0 0 7 14.9 0 0
12 Tomas Kaberle  74.5 14 18 28.7 13 0 0 0 0
17 Milan Lucic  106 21 25 17.2 5 0 0.07 0 0
18 Nathan Horton  103 20 24 21.3 10 0 0.2 0 0
19 Tyler Seguin  75.1 12 17 8.3 2 0 0 0 0
20 Daniel Paille  39.7 6 12 0.15 0 3 10.2 0 0
21 Andrew Ference  116 26 29 3.95 1 8 12 0 0
22 Shawn Thornton  13.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Chris Kelly  96.1 11 23 0.95 0 6 11.3 1 0
28 Mark Recchi  90.1 20 25 19.8 4 2 2.23 0 0
30 Tim Thomas  339 63 85 43.6 14 21 33.8 1 0
33 Zdeno Chara  155 25 34 17 8 9 17.6 1 0
37 Patrice Bergeron  81.3 24 16 9.02 1 7 6.7 0 0
44 Dennis Seidenberg  150 30 39 27.6 9 9 18.8 0 0
46 David Krejci  116 22 30 24.3 11 5 3.45 0 0
49 Rich Peverley  74.4 17 26 8.5 1 8 10.6 1 0
54 Adam McQuaid  83.7 12 21 0.03 0 6 8.22 1 0
55 Johnny Boychuk  108 23 29 4.67 1 10 11 0 0
63 Brad Marchand  100 23 24 1.68 0 4 7.43 0 0
73 Michael Ryder  82.3 14 18 18.4 4 0 0.02 0 0

 

Two Bruins won their overall battle:  Shawn Thornton and Patrice Bergeron.  Every other Bruin was even or below for the series.  Bergeron's return from injury was the turning point of the series.

 

Boston - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
37 Patrice Bergeron  4.429 2.953 1.476
22 Shawn Thornton  1.132 0.000 1.132
63 Brad Marchand  3.444 3.594 -0.150
21 Andrew Ference  3.368 3.756 -0.389
17 Milan Lucic  2.962 3.527 -0.564
18 Nathan Horton  2.920 3.504 -0.584
73 Michael Ryder  2.553 3.283 -0.729
12 Tomas Kaberle  2.821 3.627 -0.806
28 Mark Recchi  3.330 4.163 -0.833
55 Johnny Boychuk  3.208 4.045 -0.837
33 Zdeno Chara  2.424 3.296 -0.872
44 Dennis Seidenberg  2.999 3.899 -0.900
30 Tim Thomas  2.784 3.756 -0.972
19 Tyler Seguin  2.398 3.397 -0.999
46 David Krejci  2.841 3.874 -1.033
54 Adam McQuaid  2.151 3.764 -1.613
49 Rich Peverley  3.429 5.244 -1.815
23 Chris Kelly  1.717 3.589 -1.873
20 Daniel Paille  2.268 4.536 -2.268
11 Gregory Campbell  1.957 4.893 -2.936

 

Patrice, like Marc-Andre, generated the most chances per minute and surrendered the least.  Gregory Campbell was especially terrible at even strength, even though he had limited ice time.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances

*Click to enlarge all charts

Lightningvsbruinsh2hchances_medium 

Tampa's first two lines and especially that third pairing dominated Boston's top unit.  Called "The Big Line" by nearly every broadcaster and sports media hack, the line fell flat on it's face.  Lucic - Krejci - Horton were -4, -8, -4 in the chances department.  It's only going to get worse for that line against the Canucks.

Bergeron's head-to-head chart is staggering.

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Time On Ice

Lightningvsbruinsh2hicetime_medium

The bulk of Marc-Andre Bergeron's minutes came against Boston's third and fourth lines.  For all of the talk about Chara's matchup against Lecavalier, Julien chose to use Chara against St. Louis nearly as much.

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances / 15

Lightningvsbruinsh2hchancesper15_medium


Julien has to be worried about his "big line" heading into Vancouver.  His problem is two-fold though:  Krejci's line is going to get beaten up by legit competition, but so is Kelly's line.  With only one legit line to take the toughs, the Bruins could be in for a short Cup finals visit.

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