Great Expectations

Let me begin by saying that I, like so many others, am an Oiler fan living in Calgary.  Let me also say that I was born in the Edmonton area in 1983, just in time to enjoy the greatness of the Oilers as I was coming into my hockey consciousness.  When I was a kid, I grew into an Oilers fan as a Gretzky fan, a Kurri fan, and more than anyone else a Messier fan.  It was a great time to be a young fan of this team.

For years now, I've had to wonder how young kids come to be fans of the Oilers, other than at the urging of their parents. Who did they have to idolize? Smitty was good, sure, but he won't come anywhere near the Hall of Fame. When I was a teenager and young adult in the 1990's I lived in Lethbridge, a city about 2 hours south of Calgary. For a long time, Lethbridge had as many Oiler fans as it did Flames fans, despite the fact that it was substantially closer to Calgary. That all changed when the Flames made their cup run, and since then it has been solidly in the Red. For all of their failings, at least kids could look up to Iginla. He has been a hero for Flames fans, someone who captivates their imagination the way no Oiler has in 20 years.

Fast forward to the start of this season.  On opening night I found myself in the hospital: my wife had gone into labour for the birth of our first child.  Our room had a TV in it, and while things were developing we got to watch the first couple of periods of the big game; I didn't catch the end because we moved into another room, and I had more important things to do, which my wife vocally reminded me of.  Our son was born at 2:00am the next morning.

The next morning, as is a tradition in my family, I was presented with a copy of the local newspaper of the day he was born. The cover of that paper was Ivanans, lying on the ice after his fight with Big Mac, with the story discussing the Oilers big win. This made me smile, because I knew my son would have a good chance of actually growing up wanting to be an Oiler fan. Hall, Paajarvi, and Eberle represented a very real chance that, by the time my son is coming into his own hockey consciousness in a few years, he too will have the opportunity to worship Oilers stars at or near the top of game.  While he will undoubtably have to go through some dry spells in his time, at least his love of the Oilers should be firmly established before the next period of utter despair (2021 or so....).

With all of that in mind, I'm calling for patience amongst the fans. I know, you've been asked for this in the past, and you're tired of patience, I get it. But the fact is, I hear so much talk right now about the Oilers competing for the playoffs next season.  This is a wonderful dream, but realistically I think people will be a lot happier if they understand that next year isn't about actually making the playoffs, rather it's about playing competitive hockey.  Look at it this way:

1. Edmonton went 25-45-12 for a total of 62 points last season.

2. Let us assume Edmonton has a massive turnaround next year, truly massive. Let's say that 1 out of every 4 of those loses becomes a win, leaving us with 34 regulation loses instead of 45.

3. Let us assume our already optimistic prediction is even better for our performance in overtime. We will say that 50% of our overtime loses become wins, giving us 6 overtime loses.

Under this new scenario, we would go 42-34-6, for 90 points. Under this amazingly positive scenario for next year, we end up with what would amount to this year as 11th in the west and 20th overall, meaning we are still picking in the top 10, if just barely. We might be "competing for a playoff spot" but we'll still come up quite short, and that's assuming we have a miracle turnaround season.

My point, in all of this, is that our expectations for this team can be great, but need to be tempered in the short term. No one is more excited about the possibilities these kids represent than I am, but the reality is, if you are going to be disappointed in this team if they don't make the playoffs next year, than you might as well get ready for it now. Save yourself a lot of heartache and focus, for at least 1 more year, on watching the Oilers develop their skills and learn to play as a cohesive team. Enjoy watching the kids get better game by game. Enjoy watching every single time Dubnyk gets the start over Khabibulin. And enjoy the fact that, while they aren't great today, this team will one day ensure that our kids get to grow up loving the copper and blue as much as we do.

Go Oil 2014!