Ales Hemsky Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on May 29, 2011 6:30 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

Going into high-traffic areas is beginning to take it's toll on Ales Hemsky. He suffered two significant injuries last season and finished the year on the IR again. Each of his last two seasons have been impacted by injuries with Hemsky playing a combined 69 games since 2008-2009. When he was healthy, he was excellent and though consistently playing the toughs for Tom Renney - he broke even on the chances sheet.

Chance % Team Rank: 6/23
Chance % Fwd. Rank: 5/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 6/23
Diff/60% Fwd. Rank: 5/15

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	36	33	36	33	0.522	0.453
11-20	76	78	40	45	0.471	0.401
21-30	82	81	6	3	0.667	0.449
31-40	109	108	27	27	0.500	0.467
41-50	139	134	30	26	0.536	0.531
51-60	176	181	37	47	0.440	0.470
61-70	193	198	17	17	0.500	0.454
71-82						0.486

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

The major peak came on only 9 total chances. His season was cut short by injury.

Scoring Chances WOWY

	With Hemsky			Without Hemsky			Hemsky Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	65	58	0.528	284	263	0.519	128	140	0.478
10	59	79	0.428	140	107	0.567	134	119	0.530
13	19	17	0.528	271	312	0.465	174	181	0.490
27	119	116	0.506	129	132	0.494	74	82	0.474
89	82	73	0.529	189	244	0.436	111	125	0.470
91	24	27	0.471	241	295	0.450	169	171	0.497

2	39	43	0.476	207	256	0.447	154	155	0.498
5	65	52	0.556	267	325	0.451	128	146	0.467
6	46	36	0.561	122	157	0.437	147	162	0.476
26	44	42	0.512	195	259	0.430	149	156	0.489
43	18	20	0.474	122	140	0.466	175	178	0.496
49	44	74	0.373	234	286	0.450	149	124	0.546
58	37	25	0.597	125	118	0.514	156	173	0.474
77	82	91	0.474	289	301	0.490	111	107	0.509

Two numbers of interest:

1. Hemsky and his normal running mate, Shawn Horcoff, struggled mightily. Without Horcoff, Hemsky was .530, mostly with Penner and Gagner against the toughs.

2. Hemsky and Theo Peckham didn't fit very well together. With Peckham, Hemsky's chance percentage was .373. Without him, he was .546.

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Comments

Have to say, for all those saying we need to trade him, I would far rather keep Hemsky. Phenomenal player, when healthy. Which of course is the caveat. But as Pat McLean (BDHS) says, keep good players, get more good players. Hemsky (and Gilbert for that matter) is a damn good player.

by EasyOil on May 29, 2011 8:01 AM MDT reply actions

Hemsky is a great player, and person. He’s still speaks with his billets in Quebec from when he was 16.

I just wish he’d stop using that stupid field hockey stick

by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on May 29, 2011 7:56 PM MDT reply actions

Field hockey stick?! Am I being dense and missing a joke? Cos I play field hockey (or just hockey as its known here in the UK) and that ain’t no field hockey stick he uses!

by EasyOil on May 30, 2011 7:40 AM MDT up reply actions

Idea for more advanced stats

When I look at a WOWY table, I’m reminded of a correlation table; not a straight-forward one mind you. Still, I’m wondering if more advanced analyses are possible, such as regression analysis in which individual variables can be controlled. I’ll have to give this some more thought, but that’s my intuition. Does anyone know who originated the WOWY analysis?

by Waltlaw on May 30, 2011 12:30 AM MDT reply actions

Tom Tango is the first person who used it that I can remember (he was using it for baseball analysis).

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on May 31, 2011 9:12 AM MDT up reply actions

great

Been waiting for this one or 89s. Hope this will start to debunk the 89 and 83 can’t play together myth.

by rent a goalie on May 30, 2011 9:35 AM MDT reply actions

They were 34-28 last season, not much of a sample size.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 30, 2011 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions

Defencemen needed now

As mentioned before we will not be able to sign the big names on D so. . . my wish list

1) Try to sign Anton Babchuk UFA D great numbers and still young to a 3-4 year deal 2 mill/yr Age: 27 Height: 6-5 Weight: 212lbs NHL Seasons: 4 Good shot/35 pts w/11 goals +14 – Great fit on a young team

2) Hemsky was rumored that NYR for Marc Staal Height: 6-4 Weight: 209lbs + 8 29 pts – solid D and positioning signed 4 more yrs @ 3.9 MM, might cost a little more then Hemmer – NYR want Jagr and with Hemsky signing Jagr is a little easier to convince to come back to NHL & NYR

If you can now move Gilbert to Colombus + 19th overall to get their # 8th pick. Pick Murphy/Siemans with the future D coming up: /Siemans /Marincin /Teubert/Plante and make picking the nuge a little easier at #1

D overhaul:
Whitney – Babchuk
Staal – Peckham
Smid – Petry

Foster 7th D by default

by Rem9 on May 30, 2011 11:26 PM MDT reply actions

If the Oil could pull off that Staal trade, it would be a no-brainer, but with one injury prone winger already under contract, I doubt Sather would do the deal unless there was a sweetener in it on the Oilers side. Smid might help close the gap

by gcw_rocks on May 31, 2011 8:05 AM MDT up reply actions

2) Hemsky was rumored that NYR for Marc Staal Height: 6-4 Weight: 209lbs + 8 29 pts – solid D and positioning signed 4 more yrs @ 3.9 MM, might cost a little more then Hemmer – NYR want Jagr and with Hemsky signing Jagr is a little easier to convince to come back to NHL & NYR

That’s a hideous trade for the Rangers and Sather doesn’t typically lose trades, especially not that badly. This is a terrible idea for the Rangers.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 31, 2011 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions

Agree about Slats he usually does lose these type of deals. The fleecing of the Flames last year by getting rid of Kotaliks contract picking up Prust is a great example. However he needs to make some moves this offseason, given it will take a little more than Hemmer for NYR to contemplate this – but Hemsky is a top six forward, Marc Staal only recently signed a cap hit 3.9 MM / year deal – Top 4 D money, he will get you 25 – 35 pts per year and 10 – 15 goals. Hemsky will most likely sign for simular money – shorter term, so it needs a sweetner – if that is Smid then do it no brainer – I do not look to move GIlbert.

I have seen Babchuk quite a bit last year and his play in the last 20 games for Calgary was very solid in all areas, not a Foster 2.0.

by Rem9 on May 31, 2011 9:48 PM MDT up reply actions

D-overhaul
Whitney – Gilbert
Staal – Babchuk
Peckham – Petry

Foster 7th D by default

Do you draft Laarson now?

by Rem9 on May 31, 2011 9:52 PM MDT up reply actions

Sather isn’t trading Staal for Hemsky.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 31, 2011 10:22 PM MDT up reply actions

Did you watch Foster play in Tampa Bay the year before he signed with the Oilers?

by Geeezeus on Jun 1, 2011 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions

Anton Babchuk is Kurtis Foster 2.0.

by Geeezeus on May 31, 2011 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions

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