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Tom Gilbert Scoring Chances 2010-2011

If the puck is moving the right way, Tom Gilbert is probably on the ice.

Up to this point, I've posted the raw chances numbers for each player without much editorializing or analysis outside of noting the consistent Ryan Jones Effect.  I've left the analysis to Bruce, Ryan and Scott.  The lack of editorial content will change with this article.

Chance % Team Rank: 7/23
Chance % Def. Rank: 2/8

Diff/60 Team Rank: 7/23
Diff/60% Def. Rank: 2/8

The six players in front of Tom Gilbert were Jeff Petry, Taylor Hall, Shawn Horcoff, Jordan Eberle, Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky.  No Edmonton Oiler played tougher minutes with worse teammates and performed as well as Tom Gilbert.

Star-divide

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 44 45 44 45 0.494 0.453
11-20 81 105 37 60 0.381 0.401
21-30 129 158 48 53 0.475 0.449
31-40 187 218 58 60 0.492 0.467
41-50 244 271 57 53 0.518 0.531
51-60 293 321 49 50 0.495 0.470
61-70 338 365 45 44 0.506 0.454
71-82 371 392 33 27 0.550 0.486

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Gilbertseasonsegment_medium

Gilbert rock-solid throughout the season except for games 11-20 and the beginning of the 21-30 segment.  That dip coincided with Tom Renney pairing Gilbert with Jason Strudwick to face the toughs.  It was a terrible decision.

 

Scoring Chances WOWY


With Gilbert
Without Gilbert
Gilbert Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
4 136 109 0.555
213 212 0.501
235 283 0.454
10 91 71 0.562
108 115 0.484
280 321 0.466
13 101 119 0.459
189 210 0.474
270 273 0.497
14 122 99 0.552
187 204 0.478
249 293 0.459
16 36 52 0.409
54 83 0.394
335 340 0.496
22 22 25 0.468
51 68 0.429
349 367 0.487
23 52 48 0.520
101 137 0.424
319 344 0.481
27 96 102 0.485
152 146 0.510
275 290 0.487
28 61 96 0.389
102 168 0.378
310 296 0.512
67 37 51 0.420
71 103 0.408
334 341 0.495
83 82 91 0.474
111 107 0.509
289 301 0.490
85 40 33 0.548
71 100 0.415
331 359 0.480
89 104 112 0.481
167 205 0.449
267 280 0.488
91 88 99 0.471
177 223 0.443
283 293 0.491












2 25 11 0.694
221 288 0.434
346 381 0.476
5 117 110 0.515
215 267 0.446
254 282 0.474
6 42 54 0.438
126 139 0.475
329 338 0.493
43 15 33 0.313
125 127 0.496
356 359 0.498
49 152 171 0.471
126 189 0.400
219 221 0.498

 

14 of 19 players were better with Tom Gilbert than without and many significantly so.  The Taylor Hall - Shawn Horcoff - Jordan Eberle line is a glaring example of this.  Without Gilbert they were below 50%.  With him they were above 55%.  Theo Peckham was somewhat respectable with Gilbert, but without him, Peckham was below replacement-level.  Gilbert even helped Ladislav Smid rise above 50% in their time together, but without Gilbert, Laco drops to .446.

I've written about the selective perception of Oilers' fans when it comes to Tom Gilbert and since then the vitriol has increased.  There is a rather vocal portion of the Oilers' fanbase that deems Gilbert to be a terrible defender (because they don't understand defense), a wimpy player (presumably because they've never seen shot block totals) a salary cap anchor (because they don't understand value) and a detestable person (because he writes about his personal life for the Oilers' official site).  If you, the reader, believe any of the above about Gilbert, you are ignorant to the facts, purposefully obtuse or you are an imbecile.

The story here is clear.  The Edmonton Oilers with Tom Gilbert are a vastly superior team to the Edmonton Oilers without Tom Gilbert and Tom Gilbert is an outstanding player.

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If you, the reader, believe any of the above about Gilbert, you are ignorant to the facts, purposefully obtuse or you are an imbecile.

Don’t hold back, tell us how you really feel.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on May 26, 2011 11:36 AM MDT reply actions  

I’m tired of nincompoops coming down on Gilbert. He’s good.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t think that I am either a nincompoop or an imbecile. Those are some harsh words for some Oilers fans that don’t deserve them for simply having a different opinion don’t you think?

Copper & Blue

by Lisa McRitchie on May 29, 2011 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

Tom Gilbert is a Wuss! It takes more courage to step in front of a 230 pound guy, than a 8 oz hockey puck.
Besides, blocking that many shots suggests he is often out of position, or isn’t covering his man. Blocking shots as a dman is usually a desperate / last resort play. Let the goalie play the shot, worry about the rebound or the man attacking the rebound.

by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on May 26, 2011 11:57 AM MDT reply actions  

Have you ever stood in front of a 90 MPH slapshot? Id take the 230 pound guy any day.

Insert Witty Comment Here

by VanillaAcid on May 26, 2011 12:27 PM MDT up reply actions  

I pride myself on blocking shots, I’m a stay at home d-man. I also played fullback in rugby, it hurts more to take the man

by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on May 26, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

Why “take the man” when you can use leverage and ability to take the puck instead?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

There’s a grand total of 33 forwards in the NHL who are 220lbs or more… it’s a pretty over-rated ability to step in front of one of these guys.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on May 26, 2011 1:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

If it’s fighting you want, go watch MMA.

by DarrenV on May 26, 2011 2:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

Besides, blocking that many shots suggests he is often out of position, or isn’t covering his man.

What evidence can you present to back this up?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I pride myself on blocking shots, I’m a stay at home d-man.

He’s just speaking from experience.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on May 27, 2011 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions  

You can come up with all the stats you want. Tom Gilbert is seen him bad. I have never seen anyone have so many blatant give aways in my life. He is responsible for most of the goals that he is on the ice for. You can’t have a defenseman who is such a liability in his own zone.

by Dave Moriarity on May 26, 2011 1:01 PM MDT reply actions  

If you go by David Staples’ numbers (errors), your statement that he’s responsible for most of the goals he’s on the ice for is technically correct, and yet somehow your statement still seems suspect. Staples’ EV numbers aren’t a perfect match for Desjardins’ 5v5 numbers, but they’ll be close (and including 4v4 errors but not GA is only going to hurt Gilbert), but they’re pretty close. Using thsoe two we see that Gilbert had 38 errors on 74 GA, or 51%. That sounds like a lot… until you look at the other defensemen: Strudwick was at 55% (16 on 29), Whitney at 59% (13 on 22), Smid at 60% (34 on 57), Peckham at 67% (32 on 48), Petry at 73% (22 on 30), Vandermeer at 79% (37 on 47), and Foster at 86% (36 on 42).

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on May 26, 2011 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

So, indeed, he’s the Oilers’ best defenseman.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

It seems the trolls are about and looking for something to do.

The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!

by OilLeak on May 26, 2011 1:27 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Something tells me this is really “FakeJasonGregor”.

by David S on May 26, 2011 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but given real Jason’s history, it means good things.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am convinced 90% of Edmonton Oiler fans hate Tom Gilbert because Jason Gregor detests him so much.
The man can play hockey, and play well. Who cares how tough he is? His job is to get the puck out of his end and get it going the other way.
A job he does better than any other Oiler.

by DarrenV on May 26, 2011 2:31 PM MDT reply actions  

Agreed his job is not to hit, but an employee should try to exceed expectations once in a while, not just do the bare minimum

by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on May 26, 2011 2:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well considering he is out-performing all his teammates on the blueline (bar, perhaps Whitney), I find it highly unlikely he is only doing the bare minimum.

by DarrenV on May 26, 2011 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

He outperformed Whitney too. Whitney rolled for 2 hours and hit 22 points last season.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 6:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am convinced 90% of Edmonton Oiler fans hate Tom Gilbert because Jason Gregor detests him so much.

Which means he’s good.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

My worry all the time is that they will finally run him out of town and then everyone will wonder why we can’t get a solid D-man to handle the toughs and get the puck moving in the right direction.

by HockeyNut98 on May 26, 2011 3:56 PM MDT reply actions  

Oh, I’m sure it will happen. See: Pitkanen, Joni

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 6:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Between the fans running defencemen out of town, and the management doing it too (Souray), it’s a surprise we have a passable D-core at all … oh. nevermind.

by Yeti# on May 27, 2011 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

I agree with you that Tom Gilbert is a good hockey player. His team scoring chance numbers are strong, and his Neilson numbers (individual scoring chance plus/minus at even strength) are even better.

They indicate that Gilbert played at about the same level as Ryan Whitney this year (though Whitney had much better luck and slightly more skill when it came to actually helping to score and prevent goals).

I’m not so sure that Joni Pitkanen was so strong as Gilbert, though. Now, I didn’t record Neilson numbers that year, nor did anyone else (except possibly the Oilers themselves), so I don’t know what his scoring chances plus/minus was.

But Pitkanen sure made a lot of mistakes that directly led to goals against. I wasn’t a fan.

This is just an opinion, not backed up by any numbers, but Pitkanen seemed to lack hockey sense, especially in comparison to players like Whitney or Gilbert. He was too often caught watching the play in his own zone, not checking a man or covering anyone.

I’d choose Whitney or Gilbert over Pitkanen.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on May 26, 2011 8:35 PM MDT reply actions  

P.S. It’s also worth nothing that outside of one terrible streak of games, from games 13 to 22 in the season, as I recall, Gilbert’s Neilson numbers and individual goals plus/minus were outstanding. If he can avoid this kind of defensive slump that has plagued him in each of his NHL seasons, Gilbert can take his game to a new level.

He’s still a young veteran d-man, just entering his real prime, so I’m betting he can do so.
I’d hate it if he was traded.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on May 26, 2011 8:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Defencemen needed now

I am tired of the talk of weber, bieska, or even the discussion of draft larsson because he is ready now, look bottomline the majority of d-men take take to develop and the chances of oil signing a high-end d-man or an offer sheet is not realistic.

I have not seen this suiggested yet but UFA Flames Anton Babchuk: just wait:
still young: Age: 27 Height: 6-5 Weight: 212lbs NHL Seasons: 4 Good shot/35 pts w/11 goals +14

This would rank 1 on the oil last year. Flames won’t be able to sign him, no cap room, hes played in alta, offer a longer term deal 4 year 7 – 9 million. he may turn into a great 3/4 d-man at a good price. And best yet he is off the radar right now.

If the oil can make this happen, Anton still at 27 6.5 212 llbs still has huge upside, one more piece and draft the nuge.

by Rem9 on May 26, 2011 10:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

Defencemen needed now

So, would you draft Larsson?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 27, 2011 5:55 AM MDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Wings tried prying Gilbert out of the Oilers as a Rafalski replacement.

Nick Lidstrom would be booed out of Edmonton.

Hall and company need defensemen who can move the puck more than anything else, even a true #1 centre, which is why Larsson should be the pick.

by godot10 on May 26, 2011 10:32 PM MDT reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Wings tried prying Gilbert out of the Oilers as a Rafalski replacement.

With White and Pitkanen available? Maybe if those two sign elsewhere, but Holland typically goes the free agency route when he needs a fix.

Nick Lidstrom would be booed out of Edmonton.

I almost wrote that in this article.

Hall and company need defensemen who can move the puck more than anything else, even a true #1 centre, which is why Larsson should be the pick.

I was surprised when I read your draft rankings with Larsson as your #1, but I agree wholeheartedly.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 27, 2011 5:55 AM MDT up reply actions  

are the differences between players playing with gilbert and without gilbert statistically significant? I do see that they tend to be higher with Gilbert, but can you say that without a doubt none of these differences are due to chance events? Some of those differences are so close it makes me wonder if any of these numbers have any weight to them. Of course iam not very familiar with this particular metric, so i cant really gague gilberts performance effectively here anyway.

Also a comparable would be nice, maybe from another team or heck even Ryan whitney would be nice because i dont see anyone trying to run him outta town.

by scrillavilla on May 27, 2011 1:15 AM MDT reply actions  

are the differences between players playing with gilbert and without gilbert statistically significant?

Individually? Probably not. In total? Yes, I believe so.

Also a comparable would be nice, maybe from another team or heck even Ryan whitney would be nice

His injury-shortened season makes that difficult.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 27, 2011 5:50 AM MDT up reply actions  

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