Quote That May Interest Only Me, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Edition
by Derek Zona on May 26, 2011 10:00 AM MDT
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Print| "I like him plenty, but I have nagging doubts. Why do I feel like I'm watching the next Jamie Lundmark? That lackluster track record of Western League dynamic offensive whiz kids is always in the back of my mind. He seems to me like a guy with a high floor, but I would have said that about Gilbert Brule also." |
--An NHL Scout on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins during a conversation with the outstanding Kirk Luedeke.
I've expressed my doubts about Nugent-Hopkins as the top pick and those doubts are centered around his lack of even strength scoring. Scott looked at the suggestions that year-over-year improvement is more meaningful than established scoring levels and found it's established levels of success that matter:
That said, I think it means that we know a lot more about the players who have been consistent over a two-year period. The level they've established in junior is more likely to translate to the NHL, which is good to know! For those taking a big step, or who haven't previously played in the CHL, their level of ability is much less clear. They might significantly overperform or underperform their draft-year totals, but you don't really know which it's going to be (it looks to me like there are extreme examples on both sides).
Bob McKenzie has mentioned that six of ten scouts he's talked to have Nugent-Hopkins ranked first, not nearly the unanimity we've seen from past years. Given the small statistical doubt, it's interesting that an NHL scout is expressing personal doubt about Nugent-Hopkins.
As an aside - fans of Dougie Hamilton and Joe Morrow should definitely read through the quotes in Luedeke's article.
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I'm no scout
But I too have concerns about RNH. In a year where the top 8 are pretty similar and there’s no OV/Crosby/Malkin or even Hall, I’m going with a safe proven guy.
Lots of folks say he may have the highest upside and is BPA, but if Adam Larsson stabilizes the backend for the next 10 years and wins a cup or two, I won’t care that we “missed” on the best player. I want Stability…
Oh well, if RNH flops this team is doomed for a long time…
I think most people think Landeskog is BPA and Nugent-Hopkins has “the upside” or “ceiling”.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
i would love to see the track record of said scout. Love to see who his “guys” were in previous drafts and if any of them panned out. Taking the hunch of one guy as opposed to the general consensus seems ludicrous unless that scout has a recognized uncanny ability to identify super stars or busts.
All the other scouts
ranking RNH at #1 are part of an elaborate conspiracy to keep the Edmonton Oilers in the basement for another generation.
by hellofasandwich on May 26, 2011 2:40 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do you believe that any scout has a recognized uncanny ability to identify super stars or busts?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve really loved reading the draft articels on here and over at ILWT. You guys do great work.
Honestly, based on what I’ve read alone Couturier seems like the guy to take.
Derek,
I don’t fully understand the logic here. One scout is saying that he sees some bust potential in RNH, so we’re supposed to really question his value. Fine, I get it, he’s no slam dunk like Crosby/Malkin. But on that point, I have two issues:
1)Given that this one guy is raising concerns, I’ve heard scouts say he’s Pavel Datsyuk in Canadian form.
2) Also, I’ve heard more scouts question Couter’s bust potential than I have RNH’s. By the same logic shouldn’t we be questioning Couter’s value even more? You seem to quite easily wave away criticism of Couter (yes, I’m going to call him that as much as I can) but are quick to latch on to criticism of RNH. It seems like you are finding ways to confirm your existing beliefs, but presenting it in such a way that it is supposed to be taken as a neutral observation.
Put another way:
Would a quote interest you if it said something positive about RNH? Negative about Couter?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 26, 2011 4:42 PM MDT up reply actions
I’ve notice this too. You say that the fact that ‘only’ six out of ten scouts consider RNH the top pick is a ‘small statistical doubt’. None of those same scouts had Couturier, the player you’ve pegged as the best, as the the top pick, only two had him in the top three and three didn’t even have him the top five. Isn’t that a pretty large statistical doubt? Is that not interesting?
And why is an anonymous scout’s doubts about RNH, as expressed to the ‘outstanding Kirk Luedeke’, interesting, but Luedeke’s own view that ‘NH is widely considered the best player in the draft.’ not interesting?
That quote is from this interview http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2011/5/17/2173855/2011-nhl-draft-an-interview-with-kirk-luedeke-of-bruins-2011-draft, from which you cited a bunch of positive statements about Couturier, but not the part where Luedeke says RNH is considered the best player in the draft.
It sure looks like you’re jumping on every positive statement about Couturier and ignoring anything that doesn’t fit your narative of him being the best choice for the number 1 pick, and doing the exact opposite with RNH. But if you’ve got another explantation I’d be interested to hear it.
It sure looks like you’re jumping on every positive statement about Couturier and ignoring anything that doesn’t fit your narative of him being the best choice for the number 1 pick,
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
You’re leaving out one very large part of this situation, RNH’s stat breakdowns don’t look good and Couturier’s look fantastic. Sure you can split some hairs with that good/bad for both, but data-to-data Couturier takes it and he has size to go with it.
Bottom line, the stats don’t seem to jive with the scouts, so when one scout goes the way of the stats it fits better. Maybe just to me.
Bottom line, the stats don’t seem to jive with the scouts,
Indeed.
so when one scout goes the way of the stats it fits better.
Four scouts have gone the other way in McKenzie’s survey and we have no idea if Luedeke is in that survey or not.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Also, I’ve heard more scouts question Couter’s bust potential than I have RNH’s
Have you? Or have you read message boards and blog posts, rather than direct quotes from a scout?
It seems like you are finding ways to confirm your existing beliefs, but presenting it in such a way that it is supposed to be taken as a neutral observation.
We have explored the concerns over his EV scoring and his established level of production. Couturier bests him in both. As of now, the only two concerns I’ve read from scouts are “skating” and “improvement”. Scott took care of improvement and we’ve talked about EV scoring.
We already know that there is no unanimous #1, even McKenzie has admitted that. Given that, it’s worth talking about the scouts who don’t have him at #1.
Or is it better just to read the good things about Hopkins and ignore the shortcomings?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
fair enough, I don’t really spend time tracking down scouting reports, so my analysis of Couturier’s shortcomings have to do with the fact that scouts don’t see him as a real contender for the #1 spot.
To clarify, I don’t have a problem with the Couturier selection, quite frankly I haven’t made up my mind. You can say level production is better, you can counter argue “lack of improvement” or the fact that he never hit triple digits. I’m split on the issue because of his size. On the one hand, I like the fact that he’s 6’4. On the other hand, if he is 6’4, shouldn’t he be able to dominate a league full of much smaller kids to a greater extent than he did? Maybe, maybe not.
I’ve decided Landeskog is out. That’s about it.
I’m also really interested in McNeil or Oleksiak at 19…. draft day will be interesting, and hopefully it will lead to a point where, next year, it isn’t nearly so interesting.
or the fact that he never hit triple digits.
Because he was selected for the WJC team. Hopkins wasn’t.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think you are missing the point.
I was simply pointing out that there are too many arguments for and against the various players talked about as potential first overall guys to come to some sort of blogosphere consensus. I’m pointing out that you are trending towards arguing against RNH as if it should be a clear cut decision, not only that RNH shouldn’t be number 1, but that Couturier should be. I just don’t think it’s possible to make that distinction in this class.
not only that RNH shouldn’t be number 1, but that Couturier should be.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Draft
Hi, I have been reading and enjoying this blog for a couple of months now!!!!
I got a question. What was the consensus(if there was one) at this time last year? I just like to know these things when trying to determine whether or not I agree with the Writer. (not saying you can’t be wrong one year and then right the next year :)
Anyways for the record I flip-flop between Taylor & Tyler a ton last year so I took the easy route and considered myself undecided in that debate.
This year I am and always have been behind Adam Larrson. To me Larrson fills the biggest hole and has been the most consistent of all the top prospects over the past few years. That is why he would be my #1 choice. He is also the most NHL ready by far. He has also been playing on the bigger ice surface and I think that goes against his talents. He was talking about that on the feature that was on the Oilers main site and said he preferred the smaller ice at the WJHC’s. I think his game would go to a new level in the NA format.
I think RNH is to high risk/high reward for my liking and I think we should take the safe pick.
Yeah, best be safe. If we can get up to 20th spot I want to be able to hold on to it.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 26, 2011 4:40 PM MDT up reply actions
RNH is to high risk/high reward
And Scott’s study in improvement seems to support that.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I got a question. What was the consensus(if there was one) at this time last year? I
Hall was nearly a unanimous #1. In a quick survey of major services, I can’t find Seguin at #1.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Consensus
Sorry I am not too sure if I was clear enough in my opening post.
I was referring to who was the consensus #1 at this point last year on this blog. Is that what your answer was to? Not a big deal, just kind of curious.
I believe my vote was “dear god, please don’t screw this up” and “I don’t want the Oilers to win the lottery because they might screw this up”
The rest of the writers here picked Hall, I believe.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
LOL,Yeah that was pretty much how I felt as well. For some reason (actually a very good reason) I thought if we picked Sequin then Hall would be the better player and vice versa.
You’re a beaten Oilers fan. It’s the way we are.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yep LOL.
That very good reason I mentioned earlier was in reference to the Oilers track record of developing players. However I will say that in this past year alone I have seen a 10 fold improvement in that regard and it’s about time.
However I will say that in this past year alone I have seen a 10 fold improvement in that regard and it’s about time.
Maybe. Right now the system looks good, but hasn’t really produced yet. Eberle, Hartikainen and Omark were developed outside of the system.
Hall and Paajarvi were obvious picks. Eberle was a nice find.
The rest is in waiting.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
What’s your definition of “the system”? Part of player development is deciding where it is best for players to develop. If the powers that be decided that it was better for those players to develop in leagues other than the AHL, and it worked, would you not include those decision makers as part of “the system”?
Regardless, ya gotta give some credit to the OKC coaching staff for thier work with Petry and Hartikainen this year.
Regardless, ya gotta give some credit to the OKC coaching staff for thier work with Petry and Hartikainen this year.
Hartikainen? How so?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
His AHL stats show progression as the year went on, as he was learning the North American game, did they not? Some of that is the player, but to assume none of it was the coaches helping him learn the differences and get up the learning curve would effectively say coaching is worthless, and I don’t beleive that to be the case.
His AHL stats show progression as the year went on, as he was learning the North American game, did they not?
His stats show progression in each of his years as a professional.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sure, credit them. But if that’s the case, KalPa’s coaches deserve as much or more credit.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
he didn’t say other coaching staffs didn’t deserve credit, but your “Hartikainen, how so?” comment implied that the AHL coaches deserved none of the credit.
I don’t know how much they deserve. The player has developed at all levels, junior, pro, international and in three leagues. At some point that looks like the player is getting it done.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Could that not also be said about any successful European player?
I didn’t offer an allocation of credit between the player’s inate ability and work ethic versus the coaching staff, but it sure seemed like a lot of players got better under the OKC staff than did previous years. Macdonald, Hartikainen, Petry, Chorney, Kytnar, Tuebert and Montgomery (small sample size to be sure on the last 2) all seemed to improve.
I certainly hope the OKC coaches did help him and others, because if they did that bodes well for future development efforts.
I certainly hope the OKC coaches did help him and others, because if they did that bodes well for future development efforts.
Which, honestly, was the point of your comment in the first place.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If we have to take a centre, Huberdeau has my vote. The kid continues to shine at the Memorial Cup and I like players that play with intensity and know how to win, and Hubbie has both in spades (plus we would get to have fun picking nicknames – Huber, Hubbie, the Hube, and at contract time, Huberdough!).
That said, I am still hoping for Larsson! Fills a need, good track record, good upside. Based on all I read, also the safest pick.
Why haven’t we taken a look at Kevin Lowe’s son, Keegan? He’s homegrown, played with the local WHL franchise
oilers.com has an article about him: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=563063
Huberdeau scores what should be the clinching goal in the Memorial Cup. Early tweets say he was named MVP. Whoever gets this kid is going to be very happy.
Huberdeau and Memorial Cup Finals
He was named Tournament MVP…
By the way, I saw Saint John Captain Mike Thomas during the pregame while in the locker room with an Oilers practice jersey (probably from prospect camp, was he invited to one?
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