Number That May Interest Only Me, Linus Omark Edition: 957
by Derek Zona on May 23, 2011 10:15 AM MDT
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Linus Omark had the worst PDO of any Edmonton forward in 2010-2011 at 957. He suffered at the hand of the second-worst on-ice save percentage of any Edmonton forward and was 11th of 15 forwards in on-ice shooting percentage. He was fighting percentages for the entire season.
So I find it curious when Edmonton fans jump on Omark's defensive game and immediately point to his plus/minus as evidence that he's not ready for the NHL. The underlying stats tell a much different story. His scoring chance against numbers rate him 9/23 among all Oilers and 7/15 among Edmonton's forward group. The shots numbers are even more striking. His Raw Corsi numbers were tops among all Oilers forwards and his relative Corsi was third.
In fact, if we run Omark's numbers assuming a PDO of 1000 (a shade lower than Ryan Jones' PDO number) with an on-ice shooting percentage of .08 and on on-ice save percentage of .920, his even strength GF/GA ratio goes from 20/35 to 22/22. WIth just average goaltending and shooting percentage, Omark's rookie season was even at even strength and his -16 would have been a -1.
If you're looking for a middle-round pick for your keeper pool, Omark's regression is worth paying attention to.
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Good recommendation for keeper leaguers… not only should he revert to the mean since he and his linemates were shooting a crap % but his numbers the past two seasons show that he should be even better than that…
AHL 14goals/72shots=19.4%
KHL 20/105=19.0%
SEL 23/123=18.7%
SBN Fantasy Hockey Blog: Fantasy Hockey Scouts
by Cam Collingwood on May 23, 2011 10:54 AM MDT reply actions
Omark is a mean mugging little thug with just the right amount of cackyness to be a threat everytime he steps on the ice.Granted he isn’t a threat everytime he is on the ice but neither is joe thorton and he should be to. For you money he is a great little fire cracker who can make the game worth watching. I saw him 2 times in phoenix last year and love it he was a stud in both games. My center ice showed me him the rest of the year. I really like his drive and play. Put him with a little bit more upper level talent once in a while and watch him fly. Can you imaging him and hemsky skating in dipsy doodling circles around everyone? To bad they play the same side.
So he was pretty much the anti-Whitney.
by melancholyculkin on May 23, 2011 7:31 PM MDT reply actions
Indeed, he was. Whitney’s 106 isn’t sustainable and people using his 2010-11 season as a baseline, or even 90% of last season as a baseline are fooling themselves.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
agreed, but I would say it is tough to suggest where Whitney actually falls. From what I read it sounds like last year was the first time in a long time that he felt healthy due to off season foot surgery. Fact is, if Whitney had not suffered that injury, he was on pace for an all star caliber season: while I’m sure he will regress, I’m also willing to bet he will continue to be a solid first pairing d-man for us in the near future.
Plus, you have to love the fact that, at 28, he’s just the right age. When we are actually a good team, he’ll be in his early 30s, which is clearly primetime for defencemen.
by Ca$h-Money! on May 24, 2011 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions
I guess it depends what you mean by “first pairing” but Whitney was being used in a lot of offensive situations last year. For the most part, he wasn’t taking the toughest competition and he wasn’t getting deployed as much as others in the defensive zone. If that role counts as “first pairing”, the Oilers will need two first pairings with Whitney’s focused on offense and the second “first pairing” focused on defense. Nothing wrong with that – it’s the way I would go – but I think it’s important not to assume that Whitney can slide into a traditional “first pairing” that does it all and still have success.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on May 24, 2011 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
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