Jeff Petry Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on May 20, 2011 5:00 PM MDT in Statistical Analysis

It's no secret that Jeff Petry is one of my favorite prospects. I was pretty sure that Petry would be an excellent professional defenseman, but his performance in 2010-2011 destroyed even my expectations. To the eye, Petry was smooth and calm with the puck and had the ability to get the puck, and get the puck up ice like few other Oilers defensemen.

Chance % Team Rank: 1/23
Chance % Def. Rank: 1/8

Diff/60 Team Rank: 1/23
Diff/60% Def. Rank: 1/8

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10						0.453
11-20						0.401
21-30						0.449
31-40	23	23	23	23	0.500	0.467
41-50	77	63	54	40	0.574	0.531
51-60	113	94	36	31	0.537	0.470
61-70	120	104	7	10	0.412	0.454
71-82	162	143	42	39	0.519	0.486

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

His one segment below the Oilers' segment average and below 50% was also his smallest sample size. Though his overall season sample is small, there is consistency in his performance. He was first in chance percentage and chance differential on the Oilers.

Scoring Chances WOWY

	With Petry			Without Petry			Petry Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	51	38	0.573	298	283	0.513	111	105	0.514
10	22	14	0.611	177	172	0.507	140	129	0.520
13	39	36	0.520	251	293	0.461	123	107	0.535
14	22	22	0.500	287	281	0.505	140	121	0.536
16	15	11	0.577	75	124	0.377	147	132	0.527
22	15	11	0.577	58	82	0.414	147	132	0.527
23	49	49	0.500	104	136	0.433	113	94	0.546
27	42	32	0.568	206	216	0.488	120	111	0.519
28	24	25	0.490	139	239	0.368	138	118	0.539
83	37	25	0.597	156	173	0.474	125	118	0.514
85	25	24	0.510	86	109	0.441	137	119	0.535
89	35	39	0.473	236	278	0.459	127	104	0.550
91	51	52	0.495	214	270	0.442	111	91	0.550

2	39	40	0.494	207	259	0.444	123	103	0.544
5	92	84	0.523	240	293	0.450	70	59	0.543
43	9	6	0.600	131	154	0.460	153	137	0.528
77	8	7	0.533	363	385	0.485	154	136	0.531

Petry is the anti-Peckham. 16 of 17 players were better with Petry than without, and even Jordan Eberle, the player better without, was .500 with Petry and .505 without. Petry even managed to fend off the kryptonite of Ryan Jones and was one chance away from breaking even with Jones - a mini miracle. His regular partners, Jim Vandermeer and Ladislav Smid were significantly better with Petry -- Smid looks like a world-beater at .523.

Again, the sample sizes are really small, and we don't have qualcomp, but it sure looks like Petry's puck-moving abilities make Taylor Hall and Ales Hemsky play on another level.

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Comments

Petry is the anti-Peckham.

How do you square this with Petry having the second Worst +/- per 60 among regular defencemen? Scoring chances all skill, conversion rates all luck? Or … ?

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 20, 2011 7:25 PM MDT reply actions

Nobody’s claiming that scoring chances are all skill, and Derek reiterated quite a few times that this was over a small sample size. That being said, the differences between an elite finisher and a not-so-elite finisher are, over the long term, a slim margin at best. Because of that scoring chances are a better predictor of future performance than past performance.

But I’m sure I’m not the first person to explain that to you and I’m sure I won’t be the person to convince you.

by Adam Dyck on May 20, 2011 8:37 PM MDT up reply actions

The guys most likely to convince me are actually Peckham and Petry. I am extremely interested to see how they perform next year, after both went completely against the form chart w.r.t. any expected relationship between chance/shot differential and goal differential. As I wrote in my Peckham story, if process is a better predictor of future performance than outcomes, we should expect a big drop in Theo’s goal differential next year, and in the same vein we should expect a big rise in Petry’s.

Sorry for the rhetorical nature of the question, I asked the identical one in the Peckham post because they are such a weird duo (Petry’s the anti-Peckham after all) and worded both for dramatic effect. Of course neither goals nor chances are all skill, and neither are all luck either. Which should we have a higher degree of confidence in? Many would say chances, I’m just a little closer to the fence. Such outliers as these two guys are interesting cases, and I am not asking such questions just to be a PITA but because I’m keenly interested in what happens next.

I will say that if chances say Petry is the best defender on the team and Peckham the worst, I have trouble with both of those conclusions. Fortunately, chances are but one of many metrics, and can’t possibly tell the whole story.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 20, 2011 10:21 PM MDT up reply actions

I will say that if chances say Petry is the best defender on the team and Peckham the worst, I have trouble with both of those conclusions. Fortunately, chances are but one of many metrics, and can’t possibly tell the whole story.

As long as you are picking and choosing the numbers to back your narratives, how can we possibly argue?

Hall had a better ratio than the teammate in every single instance. Hard to see numbers like those and conclude buddy wasn’t driving the offence.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 21, 2011 12:56 AM MDT up reply actions

Well, by my ~~narrative~~ eye, Whitney and Gilbert were the best defenders on the team, Foster and Strudwick the worst. According to on-ice scoring chances, though, Petry was the best and Peckham the worst. I’m just saying this stat doesn’t tell the whole story. Oops, maybe “story” = “narrative” = bad word?

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 21, 2011 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions

You can’t have it both ways though. You look at scoring chance numbers for Hall and conclude he’s driving the offense.

You look at scoring chance numbers for Petry and think there is something wrong with the scoring chances.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 21, 2011 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions

And he might be right. I don’t think that’s “having it both ways”, it’s just not using scoring chances alone to form judgments (which is a good idea!). In Hall’s case, the scoring chances agree with most other metrics and Bruce’s eye (correct me if I’m wrong here, Bruce), whereas in Petry’s case, there isn’t the same unanimity.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on May 21, 2011 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions

Thank you, Scott, that is it in a nutshell.

I’m trying to come to terms with this in my own Petry review, going up on Cult of Hockey shortly. Jeff’s numbers are very peculiar. In the narrow views he looks alternately great or terrible, and in the broader picture he’s all over the map, with reason for both caution and optimism in projecting him forward. Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic. :)

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 21, 2011 1:42 PM MDT up reply actions

Semi-OT:

Are you guys going to do scoring chances for the WCF?

"You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain Kent Huskins!" - Randy Hahn 2/13/11

by pooponastick on May 20, 2011 10:49 PM MDT reply actions

This WOWY makes me lean more heavily towards drafting the “franchise D-man” over the smallish PP center. If the back end can’t get control of the puck (let alone keep it out of our net), then what good is a mass of offensive forwards going to be if they have to constantly dig the puck out their own zone?

I know its been talked about but I think, for the Oilers needs, this should be the list:

Larrson
Couturier
Nuggent-Hopkins (only if they move 2 small forwards out)
Landeskog/Huberdeau

by Joe Girth on May 21, 2011 1:34 PM MDT reply actions

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