Sharks vs. Red Wings Scoring Chances - Series Totals

This was a wonderful series to watch.  While the three other series were lop-sided affairs with few competitive moments, this was a show.  Behind The Net put it best:

It was a bit more surprising to see seven one-goal games (2-1, 2-1, 4-3, 4-3, 4-3, 2-1, 3-2 - don't forget to exclude EN goals) but it perfectly captured the relative differences between these two teams.

The games were close, the score was close and the scoring chances were close.  I'll put the finishing touches on the series with a look at the scoring chance totals and head-to-head matchups.

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. Finally, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome scripts.







Scoring Chances - San Jose vs. Detroit, Series Total

NHL Game Numbers 30241, 30242, 30243, 30244, 30245, 30246, 30247

Team Totals, San Jose in Teal

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 39 45 27 31 9 13 0 0 1 0 0 0
2 38 36 22 27 16 5 0 0 0 3 0 0
3 43 29 31 27 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 6 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 126 115 84 90 39 20 0 0 1 3 0 0
*4v4 chances do do not count as even strength time on ice. See here for an explanation.

 

The Sharks won the overall chances battle by dominating on the power play.  They nearly doubled the Red Wings chances on the power play 39-20.  The Wings edged the Sharks at even strength 90-84, a difference of six chances in seven games, numbers that reflect how close the series was.

Scoring Chances by Player - San Jose

# Player EV PP SH
3 Douglas Murray  117 21 34 0.82 2 6 17.2 1 0
7 Niclas Wallin  103 29 25 0.15 0 2 14.7 0 0
8 Joe Pavelski  104 26 28 26 28 12 18.8 0 1
9 Ian White  110 28 28 16.8 10 2 14.4 0 2
10 Jamal Mayers  7.5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 Patrick Marleau  113 30 25 24.9 28 8 22 0 2
15 Dany Heatley  105 26 29 17.7 9 1 10.2 1 1
16 Devin Setoguchi  100 27 21 23.1 26 0 3.09 0 1
17 Torrey Mitchell  90.5 18 25 1.72 2 6 12.5 0 0
19 Joe Thornton  113 29 26 27.9 31 1 15.4 1 2
20 Kyle Wellwood  94.7 28 31 1.8 2 0 4.01 0 0
21 Scott Nichol  31.8 5 11 0 0 4 8.18 0 0
22 Dan Boyle  126 26 36 34.4 29 7 17.9 1 1
29 Ryane Clowe  97.3 29 25 17.8 9 1 3.34 0 1
31 Antti Niemi  240 82 90 31.9 39 20 40 1 3
39 Logan Couture  104 25 24 19.2 9 7 15.1 0 2
44 Marc-Edouard Vlasic  125 31 30 1.53 1 12 20.2 0 1
55 Ben Eager  12.9 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
60 Jason Demers  111 32 28 11.7 9 11 17.1 0 1
64 Jamie McGinn  11.4 1 5 0 0 0 0.17 0 0
78 Benn Ferriero  46 9 13 1.25 0 0 0.01 0 0

 

Some of the numbers above should be a surprise for most people.  The Sharks' top pairing of Douglas Murray and Dan Boyle struggled against Detroit's top players, but the rest of defensive corps held their own against the rest of the Wings' roster.  The forwards were relatively close throughout the lineup, with the lone exception being Torrey Mitchell's -7, the largest negative chance differential among the regular forwards.  Of note is Patrick Marleau's +5, second among forwards after Devin Setoguchi.

 

San Jose - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
16 Devin Setoguchi  4.039 3.142 0.898
12 Patrick Marleau  3.971 3.309 0.662
29 Ryane Clowe  4.471 3.855 0.617
7 Niclas Wallin  4.214 3.633 0.581
60 Jason Demers  4.313 3.774 0.539
19 Joe Thornton  3.839 3.442 0.397
39 Logan Couture  3.612 3.467 0.144
44 Marc-Edouard Vlasic  3.723 3.603 0.120
9 Ian White  3.804 3.804 0.000
8 Joe Pavelski  3.743 4.031 -0.288
15 Dany Heatley  3.697 4.124 -0.427
20 Kyle Wellwood  4.433 4.909 -0.475
31 Antti Niemi  5.134 5.635 -0.501
17 Torrey Mitchell  2.984 4.144 -1.160
22 Dan Boyle  3.095 4.286 -1.190
78 Benn Ferriero  2.936 4.241 -1.305
3 Douglas Murray  2.693 4.361 -1.667
10 Jamal Mayers  2.000 4.000 -2.000
21 Scott Nichol  2.361 5.194 -2.833
55 Ben Eager  1.164 4.657 -3.493
64 Jamie McGinn  1.314 6.569 -5.255

 

Except for Dany Heatley, the top two lines were in the black.  The bottom of the roster didn't look good and I wonder how unbeatable the Sharks would look if they had useful bottom-line players rather than a couple of brawlers and a faceoff specialist.

I still believe these numbers would look much better had Todd McClellan replaced Clowe with Ferriero in game six and used Pavelski as the second line.  San Jose was beaten up on the chances board in game six and didn't have an effective line.  Keeping Thornton's line and Pavelski's line together would have been the more effective strategy.

 

Scoring Chances by Player - Detroit

# Player EV PP SH
5 Nicklas Lidstrom 126 28 27 31.5 17 10 4.08 0 0
8 Justin Abdelkader 73.5 16 19 2.1 0 9 9.32 0 0
11 Danny Cleary 104 22 19 9.98 2 3 3.7 0 1
13 Pavel Datsyuk 122 43 30 24.4 14 3 6.67 1 0
17 Patrick Eaves 58.2 12 16 0.38 0 19 18.4 1 0
20 Drew Miller 39.1 8 11 0 0 11 10.3 0 0
23 Brad Stuart 120 29 27 3.75 1 22 30 3 0
24 Ruslan Salei 101 29 22 0.7 0 14 16.2 0 0
26 Jiri Hudler 63.3 19 16 15.1 6 0 0 0 1
28 Brian Rafalski 116 32 32 30.1 10 2 0.47 0 1
33 Kris Draper 31.3 8 9 0.22 0 0 0.1 0 0
35 Jimmy Howard 239 90 84 33.6 20 39 31.9 3 1
40 Henrik Zetterberg 121 34 28 25.5 14 6 7.22 1 0
43 Darren Helm 72.5 15 21 0.38 0 14 24.1 2 0
44 Todd Bertuzzi 85.2 14 15 3.9 0 0 0.22 0 0
51 Valtteri Filppula 101 26 23 15.1 5 12 9.97 1 1
52 Jonathan Ericsson 116 34 34 0.52 0 12 11.9 0 0
55 Niklas Kronwall 116 28 26 20.1 11 18 28.4 3 1
90 Mike Modano 8.25 0 1 0.77 1 0 0 0 0
93 Johan Franzen 69.2 27 15 9.85 7 1 0.28 0 0
96 Tomas Holmstrom 81.3 26 29 23.9 12 0 0 0 0

 

Pavel Datsyuk was stellar all series long, that's not a secret.  But Johan Franzen's numbers are excellent, even though he was hurting badly.  Given his numbers while injuried, how different is this series with a healthy mule?  Tomas Holmstrom is noticeably slowing and doesn't keep up with the play much anymore, even though he's out with either Datsyuk or Zetterberg or both.

 

Detroit - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
93 Johan Franzen 5.850 3.250 2.600
13 Pavel Datsyuk 5.308 3.703 1.605
24 Ruslan Salei 4.295 3.258 1.037
40 Henrik Zetterberg 4.208 3.465 0.743
26 Jiri Hudler 4.500 3.789 0.711
51 Valtteri Filppula 3.866 3.420 0.446
11 Danny Cleary 3.167 2.736 0.432
35 Jimmy Howard 5.638 5.262 0.376
55 Niklas Kronwall 3.633 3.373 0.259
23 Brad Stuart 3.623 3.373 0.250
5 Nicklas Lidstrom 3.330 3.211 0.119
28 Brian Rafalski 4.144 4.144 0.000
52 Jonathan Ericsson 4.398 4.398 0.000
44 Todd Bertuzzi 2.466 2.642 -0.176
33 Kris Draper 3.840 4.320 -0.480
96 Tomas Holmstrom 4.799 5.353 -0.554
8 Justin Abdelkader 3.264 3.876 -0.612
17 Patrick Eaves 3.095 4.126 -1.032
20 Drew Miller 3.066 4.216 -1.150
43 Darren Helm 3.105 4.347 -1.242
90 Mike Modano 0.000 1.818 -1.818

 

Only the bottom of the lineup was in the red for the Wings as well.  Effective bottom-line guys don't cost more than ineffective bottom-line guys - it's interesting that two very good General Managers choose to keep chaff on the roster.

Datsyuk's numbers are just incredible.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances

*Click to enlarge all charts

Sharksvsredwingsh2hchances_medium

 

How even was the series?  Add the numbers in the top left box together and we have...zero.  The two top lines (lineup as of the opening of the series) played each other to a draw.

The Red Wings held the advantage at the top of the roster, but the Sharks made it back by beating the bottom of the roster.

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Time On Ice

Sharksvsredwingsh2hicetime_medium

The most astonishing thing on this chart is the toughness of minutes played by Lidstrom and Stuart.  65% of Lidstrom's minutes at even strength came against Thornton.  82% of his minutes were against either Thornton or Couture.  In recapping last year's Sharks-Wings series, I wrote:

Nicklas Lidstrom's minutes were amazing during this series.  89% of his minutes at even strength game against Thornton or Pavelski.

Lidstrom isn't slowing down - the Sharks forward compmliment is deeper this season and Lidstrom had to spend some time against Pavelski. 

The minutes Demers and Vlasic played against Zetterberg and Datsyuk are also surprising - they were the secondary shutdown pair - not Wallin and White.

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances / 15

Sharksvsredwingsh2hchancesper15_medium

Continuing on the topic of Demers and Vlasic, note that they played Zetterberg as well as the top pairing of Murray and Boyle.  Murray and Boyle had much more success against Datsyuk, however and when considered in the context above, they had more success against Datsyuk than any other Wings forward except the mistake-prone Justin Abdelkader.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker