Edmonton Goaltending Scoring Chances Data, 2009-2011

by Derek Zona on May 11, 2011 12:20 PM MDT

Dennis King's scoring chance data has created a bit of a mystery. For an as yet undetermined reason, the Edmonton Oilers have been a significantly better team in front of goaltenders not named Nikolai Khabibulin over the last two seasons. The effect is obvious when looking at WOWY comparisons of the players in front of him and looking at the numbers of the Oilers regulars compared to those of the Capitals.

I've compiled the totals from the last two seasons below.

TCF = Total even strength chances for on, TCA = Total even strength chances against on, % = percentage of even strength scoring chances for while on the ice, CF/60 = even strength chances for on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, CA/60 = even strength chances against on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, DIFF/60 = even strength scoring chance difference per 60 minutes of even strength playing time.

2009-2011	Minutes	TCF	TCA	%	CF/60	CA/60	DIFF/60
With Khabibulin	2893	729	962	0.431	15.117	19.949	-4.832
W/O Khabibulin	4111	1153	1317	0.467	16.827	19.221	-2.393

Over two seasons the Oilers have been 2.438 chances per 60 better without Khabibulin. Khabibulin's total minutes over those two seasons are equivalent to those of an average starter in a single season. Sample size warnings are still in effect and variance is the likeliest answer.

However, if there is a deeper answer, ceteris paribus, the Oilers would expect to be 25 goals worse per season in front of Khabibulin at even strength compared to the Jeff Deslauriers, Devan Dubnyk, Martin Gerber triumvirate. Note that this number is the expected goal differential based on scoring chance differential alone and has nothing to do with save percentage.

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So are you telling me that if save percentage was factored in we could expect the 25 goals to jump up significantly?

Side note – Listened to Nation Radio this morning. Quite impressive Mr. Zona.

by Peacecountry on May 11, 2011 1:25 PM MDT reply actions

I suggest you do a WOWY with Washington goaltenders to get an idea of what the chance separation looks like for another team.

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by mindmasher on May 11, 2011 1:37 PM MDT reply actions

Here’s the Rangers. It’s only through February, I haven’t finished compiling yet, but there was a decent difference between the two for the first five months of the season.

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by George E. Ays on May 11, 2011 7:05 PM MDT up reply actions

So according to that, they played an inferior game in terms of chance ratios in front of Lundqvist? That’s kind of contrary to some of the ideas being thrown around to reason out the difference between the two Edmonton goalies.

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by mindmasher on May 13, 2011 2:15 PM MDT up reply actions

I’m fairly confident strength of schedule played a major role in the differences btwn the two, however I never got around to splitting based on like opponents.

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by George E. Ays on May 16, 2011 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions

“when I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.”

Maybe the data means exactly what we think it means. He’s shitty.

by CDA on May 11, 2011 1:53 PM MDT reply actions

I thought this might be because Dubnyk is a far superior puckhandler to Khabibulin, so the Oilers are just a better team with him in net, getting the puck out of their own end more rapidly. But Deslauriers was a crap puckhandler, just like Khabibulin.

Deslauriers rebound control was also bad, which should lead to more rebounds, more chances against.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on May 11, 2011 1:54 PM MDT reply actions

Deslauriers used to leave a lot of rebounds in front of him, but they weren’t necessarily in the scoring area.

Khabibulin kicks rebounds right back out to the prime scoring area.

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by dawgbone98 on May 11, 2011 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree with David that just the simple amount of rebounds leads to more possesion by the opponents in the Oiler zone.

Juicy rebounds can create more SCA, but also more rebounds = more ozone possesion by oppenent = more SGA

by Woodguy on May 11, 2011 3:28 PM MDT up reply actions

Any control for quality of opponents? I guess there’s enough events there to suggest no implied effect, but I figured I’d ask.

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by Kent Wilson on May 11, 2011 3:37 PM MDT reply actions

I was thinking the same thing. Plus I want to see more posts with evidence that Khabibulin is a craptastic goalie.

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by ryanbatty on May 11, 2011 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions

Could positioning be a factor? If Dubnyk is in good position to make a save and khabby in the same situation isn’t, that would make a difference

by DuLock on May 11, 2011 4:56 PM MDT via mobile reply actions

I’d be interested in seeing these stats split for wins, close losses and blowout losses. I suspect the team tries harder in close games and tries harder to keep the young guy’s confidence up

by DuLock on May 11, 2011 5:06 PM MDT via mobile reply actions

I doubt that.I think the reverse is true.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 11, 2011 5:52 PM MDT up reply actions

What about corse or fen wick differential of the goalies

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 11, 2011 5:52 PM MDT reply actions

If you are looking for an interesting comparision, look the the Leafs with and without Reimer. It would be very interesting to see if the same effect applies with Giggy and The Monster were in net (like Khabby) vs with Reimer (like Dubnyk).

They are the only other team I can think of that played that dramatically different in front of different goalies.

by gcw_rocks on May 12, 2011 6:22 AM MDT reply actions

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