The Oilers Are Like The Capitals, If You Remove Khabibulin
by Derek Zona on May 10, 2011 1:30 PM MDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintThe mystery continues. The Oilers have been a markedly better team without Nikolai Khabibulin in each of the last two seasons. How much better? Consider the Oilers' 2010-2011 scoring chance numbers against those of the Washington Capitals.
In the table below, I've grouped the 23 most common players from each lineup by their most common linemates (except for Gilbert Brule) or defensive partner. In Washington's case, I've used scoring chance data from the entire season, courtesy of Russian Machine Never Breaks. In Edmonton's case, I've used the without Khabibulin data mentioned in this article.
| Player | 5v5 SCF | 5v5 SCA | SC% | Player | 5v5 SCF | 5v5 SCA | SC% | |
| Mike Knuble | 333 | 276 | 0.547 | Dustin Penner | 116 | 102 | 0.532 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 366 | 279 | 0.567 | Sam Gagner | 120 | 128 | 0.484 | |
| Alex Ovechkin | 431 | 325 | 0.570 | Ales Hemsky | 108 | 77 | 0.584 | |
| Marcus Johansson | 228 | 231 | 0.497 | Taylor Hall | 171 | 121 | 0.586 | |
| Brooks Laich | 278 | 222 | 0.556 | Shawn Horcoff | 107 | 85 | 0.557 | |
| Alex Semin | 256 | 189 | 0.575 | Jordan Eberle | 145 | 130 | 0.527 | |
| Jason Chimera | 218 | 241 | 0.475 | Magnus Paajarvi | 129 | 140 | 0.480 | |
| David Steckel | 119 | 137 | 0.465 | Andrew Cogliano | 138 | 150 | 0.479 | |
| Eric Fehr | 133 | 111 | 0.545 | Linus Omark | 72 | 85 | 0.459 | |
| Matt Bradley | 132 | 140 | 0.485 | Ryan Jones | 82 | 105 | 0.439 | |
| Boyd Gordon | 116 | 139 | 0.455 | Colin Fraser | 41 | 48 | 0.461 | |
| Matt Hendricks | 174 | 170 | 0.506 | Gilbert Brule | 51 | 60 | 0.459 | |
| Karl Alzner | 349 | 326 | 0.517 | Ryan Whitney | 76 | 60 | 0.559 | |
| John Carlson | 393 | 332 | 0.542 | Kurtis Foster | 111 | 119 | 0.483 | |
| Scott Hannan | 285 | 224 | 0.560 | Theo Peckham | 126 | 146 | 0.463 | |
| Mike Green | 257 | 228 | 0.530 | Tom Gilbert | 187 | 176 | 0.515 | |
| Jeff Schultz | 302 | 282 | 0.517 | Jim Vandermeer | 133 | 153 | 0.465 | |
| John Erskine | 242 | 214 | 0.531 | Ladislav Smid | 151 | 152 | 0.498 | |
| Marco Sturm | 57 | 44 | 0.564 | J.F. Jacques | 33 | 47 | 0.413 | |
| Mathieu Perreault | 94 | 82 | 0.534 | Liam Reddox | 52 | 78 | 0.400 | |
| Jay Beagle | 52 | 60 | 0.464 | Zack Stortini | 18 | 17 | 0.514 | |
| Tom Poti | 83 | 86 | 0.491 | Jeff Petry | 79 | 65 | 0.549 | |
| Tyler Sloan | 78 | 94 | 0.453 | Jason Strudwick | 70 | 61 | 0.534 |
The Oilers lack of NHL depth shines through as the comparison falls apart a bit at the bottom of the roster, but the top line Edmonton talent matches up extraordinarily well with the top line talent from Washington. The Caps' scoring chance percentage from these players was .529. The Oilers' chance percentage from these players without Khabibulin was .501. With Khabibulin, these players posted a chance percentage of .440.
I still have no answers, but remain curious.
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Another Nail in the coffin.
Article after article come out in regards to Habby’s year. And i’ve yet to see one positive take on his season. He was a mistake to sign in the 1st place. He has proven to be worse then expected last year. And its obvious the team would be better off without him. Too bad we are gonna have to just suck it up and accept he’s here… for at least 1 more year.
Looking at these numbers side by side confuses me…Matt Hendricks on ice for as many chances for as Taylor Hall? Are the Oilers really such a low-quantity team (at both ends of the rink)?
At least you used Johansson instead of, say, Fleischmann, I guess. Worth noting that just as the Oilers magically became better with Khabibulin not playing, the Caps got better with Arnott and Wideman.
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To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
Looking at these numbers side by side confuses me…Matt Hendricks on ice for as many chances for as Taylor Hall? Are the Oilers really such a low-quantity team (at both ends of the rink)?
Chances without Khabibulin. These are only scoring chances for when Dubnyk, Gerber or Deslauriers (did he even play a game in Edmonton this year? I don’t remember.) were in net.
by despisethesun on May 10, 2011 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Deslauriers (did he even play a game in Edmonton this year? I don’t remember.)
No he did not.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I re-read your comment and kind of feel like a jerkass for pointing that out, but it’s worth noting that it’s basically less than half a season’s worth of chances. I’m not sure exactly what Hendricks’ ice time was, but he’s got 77 games worth of chances in the list (according to hockeydb’s GP) and Hall has 35 minus whatever games he missed that DD/Gerber played while he was hurt.
by despisethesun on May 10, 2011 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions
To the point of low-event teams, the actual pertinent data is the absolute difference generated in scoring chances, rather than the ratio of those scoring chances, no? If a team can play a low-event game and get 60% of the scoring chances for a total difference of +4 per 20 chance game, the same team should generate the same advantage in chances with a 55% ratio in a 40 chance game. I’d think the difference between a 55% player and a 60% player is pretty huge, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on May 10, 2011 3:42 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
In Edmonton’s case, I’ve used the without Khabibulin data mentioned in this article.
Mannnnn, I even put it in bold.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
What about Finish Percentage? (And no, that’s not # of Finns on the team)
I keep saying, creating scoring chances is one thing, putting them in the damn net quite another.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Let’s put it this way, Ovechkin’s sh% is around 12% over his career and Penner’s is over 13%.
I don’t think Ovechkin scores more because he’s a necessarily better finisher, he’s just incredible at creating chances.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Yeah I know OV is a volume shooter, I was thinking more of Semin & Green.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 10, 2011 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions
So, what are the possible explanations, outside of random variation? What kind of story do the 09/10 numbers tell WRT to EDM goaltending, vs. the 10/11 numbers?
by hockeysymposium on May 10, 2011 3:38 PM MDT reply actions
I just read the thread below, and found this link to the debate that includes last year’s numbers.
by hockeysymposium on May 10, 2011 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, that could have been a good discussion, but it was derailed by someone trying really hard to sound intelligent.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I have no idea at this point, but something is weird. I actually hope it’s variance, but I’m not sure where to start.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It could be variance, but you kind of wonder when it happens back to back. I guess, like Vic Ferrari* always says about shooting percentage, you might believe a player just had one bad luck year, and MAYBE two, but once it gets beyond that it’s tough to convince yourself it’s just “bad luck”, even if the odds tells you that someone is bound to be unlucky 3 years in a row.
One wants there to be a more satisfying narrative.
- At least, that’s what Vic says as I recall. If I’m misrepresenting, my apologies.
by hockeysymposium on May 10, 2011 8:58 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s the enormity of the difference that gets me. This isn’t a one or two point difference we’re talking about.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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