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Nikolai Khabibulin Scoring Chances 2010-2011

What explanations can we explore to determine why the Oilers are giving up far more chances in front of Khabibulin compared to anyone else who plays in goal for them?

I asked that question of you, the reader, in mid-March.  Commenters arrived at a "rebounds" consensus, but I don't believe anyone has done any work on the question.  I don't know if goaltenders have a significant effect on scoring chance rates, but we needed a way to introduce the Nikolai Khabibulin review, so the season numbers are after the jump.

I've listed his rank among his teammates as if he were a skater:

Chance % Team Rank:  20/24

Diff/60 Team Rank: 21/24

Star-divide

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 91 117 91 117 0.438 0.453
11-20 134 204 43 87 0.331 0.401
21-30 206 296 72 92 0.439 0.449
31-40 292 431 86 135 0.389 0.467
41-50 373 496 81 65 0.555 0.531
51-60 448 573 75 77 0.493 0.470
61-70 454 590 6 17 0.261 0.454
71-82 515 672 61 82 0.427 0.486

 

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Khabibulinseasonsegment_medium


He was 20th in chance percentage so the poor numbers on the graph are not a surprise.

Scoring Chances WOWY


With Khabibulin
Without Khabibulin
Khabibulin Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
4 178 200 0.471
171 121 0.586
337 472 0.417
10 92 101 0.477
107 85 0.557
423 571 0.426
13 152 179 0.459
138 150 0.479
363 493 0.424
14 164 173 0.487
145 130 0.527
351 499 0.413
16 49 87 0.360
41 48 0.461
466 585 0.443
22 40 46 0.465
33 47 0.413
475 626 0.431
23 81 100 0.448
72 85 0.459
434 572 0.431
27 132 146 0.475
116 102 0.532
383 526 0.421
28 81 159 0.338
82 105 0.439
434 513 0.458
46 27 42 0.391
18 17 0.514
488 630 0.436
67 57 94 0.377
51 60 0.459
458 578 0.442
83 85 121 0.413
108 77 0.584
430 551 0.438
85 59 55 0.518
52 78 0.400
456 617 0.425
89 151 189 0.444
120 128 0.484
364 483 0.430
91 136 182 0.428
129 140 0.480
379 490 0.436












2 113 146 0.436
133 153 0.465
402 526 0.433
5 181 225 0.446
151 152 0.498
334 447 0.428
6 92 133 0.409
76 60 0.559
423 539 0.440
26 128 182 0.413
111 119 0.483
387 490 0.441
43 70 99 0.414
70 61 0.534
445 573 0.437
49 152 214 0.415
126 146 0.463
363 458 0.442
58 83 78 0.516
79 65 0.549
432 594 0.421
77 184 216 0.460
187 176 0.515
331 456 0.421

 

This is just bizarre.  There's something going on here, but what?  Taylor Hall without Khabibulin has a scoring chance percentage better than Alex Ovechkin.  With Khabibulin he's Jason ChimeraTom Gilbert posts numbers similar to those of Karl Alzner without Khabibulin.  With him, he's Tyler SloanRyan Whitney's numbers are better than those of John Carlson without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the CapitalsAles Hemsky is better than Ovechkin without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the Caps.  Ladislav Smid and Kurtis Foster were nearly even players without Khabibulin.  Only three Oilers were better with Khabibulin:  J.F. Jacques and Liam Reddox, and of course Ryan Jones, though Jones and Khabibulin were so bad together it was impossible for them to be worse apart from each other.

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This article made me laugh… and then I realised Khabibulin is still signed for 2 more years.

So thanks Derek, for confusing my emotions!

by EasyOil on May 10, 2011 7:07 AM MDT reply actions  

May I recommend vodka? It’s what Khabi would suggest.

by Yeti# on May 10, 2011 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

vodka does make the numbers blurry

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on May 10, 2011 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions  

You've got it all wrong!

Think about it this way:

With Khabi around for two more years, no matter how good a team we build in front of him, we’ll still be bad. We can be awesome except for him, and still pick up top 10 draft picks. Then, after the two years are over, we replace him with DD and someone else and (pause for dramatic effect)…..

STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!

It’s pretty exciting, and it sure is nice of Khabibulin for taking so much responsibility for ensuring our future success. Thank you Mr. Khabibulin, your noble sacrifice won’t soon be forgotten!

by Ca$h-Money! on May 10, 2011 7:55 AM MDT reply actions  

Let’s say the Oilers decided to address their goaltending this summer, and signed Vokoun to a 2 year, 11 mil deal. And let’s also assume Vokoun posts his normal .920 sv%. That would be a ~ 42 goal improvement on its own, assuming Khabibulin posts the same number of games/shots/sv%, etc. I think it’s reasonable to expect Khabi to be somewhat better next year, but I would still imagine you could reasonably expect Vokoun to be ~ 25 goals better than Khabibulin next year, plus less health concerns, etc.

I’m not saying they’ll take that approach, or even that they should (where does that leave Dubnyk if you’re trying to grrom him as a starter?), but if they did, how far are they away, really, from a playoff spot if they spend to the cap to address needs after hypothetically acquiring Vokoun?

by hockeysymposium on May 10, 2011 8:50 AM MDT reply actions  

Impact on Dubnyk

These numbers are pretty worrying for Devan Dubnyk. It seems like Dubnyk faced a lot less quality chances than Khabi (or am I not understanding this chart)?

Perhaps rebounds is a reason and this is repeatable, but given the sample size isn’t there a chance this is just bad luck and Dubnyk will face more scoring chances and see a decrease is SV% because of it?

by Smytty777 on May 10, 2011 9:10 AM MDT reply actions  

Yeah, I’m scratching my head too. Bad as Khabibulin played, there’s little doubt in my mind that Oilers played a disproportionate number of rotten games in front of him. Some of that was Renney throwing Khabibulin to the wolves a few times in unwinnable games (e.g. @ Calgary the day after Oilers had finished sweeping Vancouver), but man oh man, his record is just awful.

Much as I like to consider the goalie a part of the team rather than an island, it’s pretty hard to explain away scoring chance differentials like Taylor Hall’s and put the blame on the goalie. Did Khabi allow 80 more scoring-chance-causing rebounds than Dubnyk with Hall on the ice?

Let’s look at it this way. Khabibulin played 2701 minutes out of the 4947 total played by the three Oiler goalies. That’s 54.6%. He was on the ice for less than 52% of the chances for (both F and D) and around 58% of the chances against. Some of the latter might be rebounds. The former?

The other odd thing is that one would expect score effects to drive this bus in the other direction, given the Oilers were ALWAYS FUCKING LOSING when NK was in the pipes.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 10, 2011 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

I have decided to look at the above information as an affirmation that Taylor Hall is a beauty. Glass half full and all that.

http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog

by mindmasher on May 10, 2011 12:13 PM MDT reply actions  

My take is that NK was left in a bunch of games by Renney when things went really bad. He was in net for two 5 goal against games, four 6 goal against games and one 8 goal against games. In most situations, the coach will mercy pull the starter when things go horrible. Renney had a tendancy to leave him in and save DD for the next night. These kind of nights will really add up when you are talking about a sample size of 47 games started.

I am not trying to defend or mitigate his play, just that on nights where the rest of the team was looking at the clock and trying to get tossed, NK was left to get shelled.

Score effects usually take place when it’s close. You are leading by one and go into a defensive shell. The Oilers got blown out lots of nights and it was just a duck shoot.

by Matt.N on May 10, 2011 3:03 PM MDT reply actions  

Renney pulled his goalie just three times all year.

1) NK when he gave in 4 goals in the first 7 or 8 minutes in CAR.
2) NK after the second period of a 5-0 loss to CHI, after which he went on IR.
3) DD in third period of 4-0 loss to ANA.

In the latter case it was the second half of a back-to-back, where Khabi had lost to OTT of all teams the day before & Renney was trying to restore his confidence a little (it actually worked). Otherwise Renney left his starter in to take his lumps for the most part. The fact said starter was Khabibulin far more often than it was Dubnyk tells a tale in its own right.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 10, 2011 5:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

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