Nikolai Khabibulin Scoring Chances 2010-2011

What explanations can we explore to determine why the Oilers are giving up far more chances in front of Khabibulin compared to anyone else who plays in goal for them?

I asked that question of you, the reader, in mid-March.  Commenters arrived at a "rebounds" consensus, but I don't believe anyone has done any work on the question.  I don't know if goaltenders have a significant effect on scoring chance rates, but we needed a way to introduce the Nikolai Khabibulin review, so the season numbers are after the jump.

I've listed his rank among his teammates as if he were a skater:

Chance % Team Rank:  20/24

Diff/60 Team Rank: 21/24

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 91 117 91 117 0.438 0.453
11-20 134 204 43 87 0.331 0.401
21-30 206 296 72 92 0.439 0.449
31-40 292 431 86 135 0.389 0.467
41-50 373 496 81 65 0.555 0.531
51-60 448 573 75 77 0.493 0.470
61-70 454 590 6 17 0.261 0.454
71-82 515 672 61 82 0.427 0.486

 

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Khabibulinseasonsegment_medium


He was 20th in chance percentage so the poor numbers on the graph are not a surprise.

Scoring Chances WOWY


With Khabibulin
Without Khabibulin
Khabibulin Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
4 178 200 0.471
171 121 0.586
337 472 0.417
10 92 101 0.477
107 85 0.557
423 571 0.426
13 152 179 0.459
138 150 0.479
363 493 0.424
14 164 173 0.487
145 130 0.527
351 499 0.413
16 49 87 0.360
41 48 0.461
466 585 0.443
22 40 46 0.465
33 47 0.413
475 626 0.431
23 81 100 0.448
72 85 0.459
434 572 0.431
27 132 146 0.475
116 102 0.532
383 526 0.421
28 81 159 0.338
82 105 0.439
434 513 0.458
46 27 42 0.391
18 17 0.514
488 630 0.436
67 57 94 0.377
51 60 0.459
458 578 0.442
83 85 121 0.413
108 77 0.584
430 551 0.438
85 59 55 0.518
52 78 0.400
456 617 0.425
89 151 189 0.444
120 128 0.484
364 483 0.430
91 136 182 0.428
129 140 0.480
379 490 0.436












2 113 146 0.436
133 153 0.465
402 526 0.433
5 181 225 0.446
151 152 0.498
334 447 0.428
6 92 133 0.409
76 60 0.559
423 539 0.440
26 128 182 0.413
111 119 0.483
387 490 0.441
43 70 99 0.414
70 61 0.534
445 573 0.437
49 152 214 0.415
126 146 0.463
363 458 0.442
58 83 78 0.516
79 65 0.549
432 594 0.421
77 184 216 0.460
187 176 0.515
331 456 0.421

 

This is just bizarre.  There's something going on here, but what?  Taylor Hall without Khabibulin has a scoring chance percentage better than Alex Ovechkin.  With Khabibulin he's Jason ChimeraTom Gilbert posts numbers similar to those of Karl Alzner without Khabibulin.  With him, he's Tyler SloanRyan Whitney's numbers are better than those of John Carlson without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the CapitalsAles Hemsky is better than Ovechkin without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the Caps.  Ladislav Smid and Kurtis Foster were nearly even players without Khabibulin.  Only three Oilers were better with Khabibulin:  J.F. Jacques and Liam Reddox, and of course Ryan Jones, though Jones and Khabibulin were so bad together it was impossible for them to be worse apart from each other.

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