Linus Omark Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Apr 30, 2011 11:30 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

"No fancy schmancy passing
no dipsy doodle dancing..."
--The Hanson Brothers, "My Game"

Linus Omark came to Edmonton with a reputation for dazzling shootout goals and a bravado unrivaled in Sweden or Russia. But it was his passing ability and amazing board work that impressed fans the most. Tom Renney believes his game still needs work, but there's no reason for Omark to ever see the AHL again.

Chance % Team Rank: 14/23
Chance % Fwd Rank: 9/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 14/23
Diff/60 Fwd Rank: 9/15

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10						0.453
11-20						0.401
21-30	1	17	1	17	0.056	0.449
31-40	19	42	18	25	0.419	0.467
41-50	56	76	37	34	0.521	0.531
51-60	83	111	27	35	0.435	0.470
61-70	97	147	14	36	0.280	0.454
71-82	153	185	56	38	0.596	0.486

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

That is an ugly introduction to NHL hockey. 1 CF and 17 CA is a streak of bad play and bad luck rarely seen, even by Edmonton fans. But that wasn't his only swoon -- in the 61-70 segment, he was -22. He came on strong to end the year and over the last segment he was +18 and 59.6%.

Scoring Chances WOWY

	With Omark			Without Omark			Omark Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
13	34	30	0.531	256	299	0.461	119	155	0.434
28	10	35	0.222	153	229	0.401	143	150	0.488
85	24	25	0.490	87	108	0.446	129	160	0.446
89	58	82	0.414	213	235	0.475	95	103	0.480
91	102	103	0.498	163	219	0.427	51	82	0.383

2	39	63	0.382	207	236	0.467	114	122	0.483
5	50	68	0.424	282	309	0.477	103	117	0.468
26	38	47	0.447	201	254	0.442	115	138	0.455
43	25	24	0.510	115	136	0.458	128	161	0.443
49	36	43	0.456	242	317	0.433	117	142	0.452
58	49	49	0.500	113	94	0.546	104	136	0.433
77	52	48	0.520	319	344	0.481	101	137	0.424

The late season narrative involving Omark centered around how much better he was skating with Magnus Paajarvi and how much better Paajarvi was when skating with Omark. I hate narratives because... oh, will you look at that? Omark and Paajarvi were 1 chance short of even when playing together. Find these guys a center capable of playing all zones and the Oilers might have something here.

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Comments

Jones’ strange gravitational pull continues…

by Woodguy on Apr 30, 2011 11:56 AM MDT reply actions

I’ve been accused of hating Jones, so I’m withholding comment.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 30, 2011 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions

I never said there weren’t any reasons to hate Jones.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 30, 2011 9:01 PM MDT up reply actions

Btw, just to put the opposite spin on this, here’s what I wrote about Jones the night of Omark’s first NHL game (the night 23’s EV chances were +0/-11):

Was given a tough assignment, being put on a line with the two recent call-ups Omark and O’Marra. The trio spent much of the night in chase mode. Did play some defence, including four hits, two takeaway, two blocked shots, and two minutes of flawless penalty killing. Also managed to generate one decent chance while shorthanded which easily could have drawn a penalty. A very watchable player.

Further comment: O’Marra was a black hole.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 1, 2011 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Looks like he did alright with 13.

by ghs on Apr 30, 2011 12:01 PM MDT reply actions

Reddox too, but both are very small samples

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 30, 2011 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions

add lander as the C and you will have one crazy line.

by flames_suck on Apr 30, 2011 12:59 PM MDT reply actions

Personally I’d like to see Harti there. Couldn’t tell ya why though lol

Insert Witty Comment Here

by VanillaAcid on Apr 30, 2011 1:06 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

But then you’re left without a center

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 1, 2011 6:50 AM MDT up reply actions

I’m so happy to see the Hanson Brothers quoted here.

by jjev on Apr 30, 2011 7:23 PM MDT reply actions

We do what we can

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 30, 2011 8:15 PM MDT up reply actions

I’m really surprised these results are so poor. Omark really just has the home stretch to hang his hat on. I’ll admit I like the kid’s game by eye, so it’s hard to match these results with that. If the results don’t come around in a fairly big way next year, I’ll have to change my mind.

Anyway to look at the splits in terms of common linemates by the chances?

by RiversQ on May 1, 2011 12:39 PM MDT via mobile reply actions

How would you like to view the breakdown?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 1, 2011 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions

Omark’s top two forward linemates (by total chances) for each 10 game section? That might work. It also may not show anything.

by RiversQ on May 1, 2011 9:06 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Would anybody else

like to see Horcoff center these two to start the season in the role he played for Hall and Eberle last year? I have no idea if it would help speed along their development or not but it seems like Horcoff really helped Hall and Eberle.

The problem is depth at the position. I can’t decide how the lines should be filled out afterwards if they did this.

by TigerUnderGlass on May 2, 2011 12:31 PM MDT reply actions

The concern you’ve noted at the end was pretty much the first thing I thought of. If Horcoff centers those two, who would play between Hall and Eberle? This team needs more players!

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on May 2, 2011 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions

I suppose you could stick a rookie center taken at #1 between Hall and Eberle and shelter them as much as possible, but Renney doesn’t seem to want to protect anybody and I’m not sure those two are ready to drag a rookie around the ice.

by TigerUnderGlass on May 2, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions

I like 23 as well but I’m not surprised that he didn’t show up better in the SC terms.

I think he’s the kind of guy who’d be able to keep up if he had a couple of good linemates but he’s not ready to drive the bus just yet on a poor team where he doesn’t have the benefit of a doubt in terms of linemates.

by DennisK on May 2, 2011 2:28 PM MDT reply actions

Well I remember that first stretch with Paajarvi, where everyone was raving about them in GDTs but they were getting hammered by the SCs, but I figured he salvaged his year in the last 25 games or so. He had a better last ten but it’s all pretty underwhelming.

by RiversQ on May 2, 2011 8:35 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

My guess is that people starting raving about 12-14 games into Omark’s career

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 2, 2011 9:48 PM MDT up reply actions

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