Sharks vs. Kings Scoring Chances - Series Totals

So while you're getting ripped apart head to toe [as you fall into a black hole], you will also extrude through the fabric of space and time, like toothpaste squeezed through a tube. To all the words in the English language that describe ways to die (e.g., homicide, suicide, electrocution, suffocation, starvation) we add the term "spaghettification."

--Neil deGrasse Tyson, "Death By Black Hole"

The black hole that is Jack Johnson helped to kill the Kings via "spaghettification."  I poked fun at Johnson throughout the series, but the underlying numbers reveal just how weak he was.  He has an awful habit of getting caught in no-man's land on a consistent basis -- if Johnson lived on the Korean Peninsula, he would wander into the DMZ three or four times per day.  It's not that he makes mistakes in his own zone, it's that he surprises everyone when he shows up in the right place.  The Sharks took advantage of Johnson's play and buried him at even strength.  The scoring chances do not paint a pretty picture.

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. Finally, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome scripts.






 

Scoring Chances - San Jose vs. Los Angeles, Series Total

NHL Game Numbers 30161, 30162, 30163, 30164, 30165, 30166

Team Totals, San Jose in Teal

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 41
21
29
14
6
4
4
0 2
3
0 0
2 33
28
21
19
10 5 0 0 0 1
0 0
3 26
21
20
13
6
5
0 3
0 0 0 0
3 10
4
10
4
0
0
0 0
0 0 0 0
Totals 110 74
80
50
22
14
4
3
2
4 0 0
*4v4 chances do do not count as even strength time on ice. See here for an explanation.

 

The Sharks were +36 for the series, a number built on even strength domination.  +30 at even strength through six games is domination like I've not seen in regular season play.  For a comparison, in six games, the Vancouver Canucks were +15 in six games versus the Edmonton Oilers this season. 

 


Scoring Chances by Player - San Jose

# Player EV PP SH
3 Douglas Murray  98.7 26 23 0.72 1 7 16.1 0 0
7 Niclas Wallin  92.64 21 14 0.66 0 4 7.8 1 0
8 Joe Pavelski  80.7 22 10 21.9 5 4 14.8 1 0
9 Ian White  66.75 20 9 11.9 8 4 7.2 1 2
10 Jamal Mayers  29.76 5 2 0.66 1 0 1.32 0 1
12 Patrick Marleau  87.12 29 17 21.1 5 2 12.7 2 1
15 Dany Heatley  91.26 26 16 14.7 7 4 8.46 1 1
16 Devin Setoguchi  84.9 26 17 18.5 3 0
0 1
17 Torrey Mitchell  83.34 20 11 0.6 0 4 11.2 0 1
19 Joe Thornton  93.18 31 17 22.9 7 3 9.48 0 1
20 Kyle Wellwood  86.16 22 11 0.66 1 1 0.48 0 0
21 Scott Nichol  36.66 5 7 0 1 2 6.54 0 1
22 Dan Boyle  113.6 39 28 27.5 9 6 17 1 2
29 Ryane Clowe  93.18 27 16 18.4 8 0 0.18 0 1
39 Logan Couture  87.96 28 18
7 7 10.6 0 2
44 Marc-Edouard Vlasic  108.4 27 13 0.6 0 5 15.5 1 2
55 Ben Eager  17.76 2 6 0.4 1 0
0 0
60 Jason Demers  94.56 22 11 10.7 4 3 12.1 0 2
61 Justin Braun  13.13 1 3 0.93 0 0 1.47 0 0
64 Jamie McGinn  11.98 1 1 0.16 0 0
0 0

 

Except for the fourth line, the Sharks were all in the black at even strength.

 

San Jose - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
9 Ian White  4.494 2.022 2.472
19 Joe Thornton  4.990 2.737 2.254
8 Joe Pavelski  4.089 1.859 2.230
12 Patrick Marleau  4.993 2.927 2.066
44 Marc-Edouard Vlasic  3.738 1.800 1.938
20 Kyle Wellwood  3.830 1.915 1.915
29 Ryane Clowe  4.346 2.576 1.771
60 Jason Demers  3.490 1.745 1.745
39 Logan Couture  4.775 3.070 1.705
15 Dany Heatley  4.274 2.630 1.644
17 Torrey Mitchell  3.600 1.980 1.620
16 Devin Setoguchi  4.594 3.004 1.590
10 Jamal Mayers  2.520 1.008 1.512
22 Dan Boyle  5.148 3.696 1.452
7 Niclas Wallin  3.400 2.267 1.133
3 Douglas Murray  3.951 3.495 0.456
64 Jamie McGinn  1.252 1.252 0.000
21 Scott Nichol  2.046 2.864 -0.818
61 Justin Braun  1.142 3.427 -2.285
55 Ben Eager  1.689 5.068 -3.378

 

White and Wallin were partners throughout the series except in game two, the game White missed after taking a dirty hit from Jarret Stoll.  That game was one of the two in which the Sharks were outscored and it helped to save White's chances differential.  For all of the flak Thornton takes about his playoff performance, he was at the head of the line for the Sharks in the scoring chances department.  One are of concern for the Sharks moving forward might be the defensive liabilities of the Clowe - Couture - Heatley line.

 

Scoring Chances by Player - Los Angeles

# Player EV PP SH
2 Matt Greene  82.5 9 20 0.84 0 8 16.7 1 0
3 Jack Johnson  99.48 14 35 25.6 12 9 6.6 3 2
7 Rob Scuderi  103.6 13 37 0.6 0 12 18.3 2 0
8 Drew Doughty  115.9 27 26 27.5 13 7 13.5 2 2
9 Oscar Moller  8.13 2 1 2.48 0 0 0.0 0 0
13 Kyle Clifford  78.12 18 23 0.96 0 0 0.66 0 0
14 Justin Williams  79.86 11 19 16.7 4 1 2.04 0 0
15 Brad Richardson  83.52 23 24 1.38 0 5 7.8 2 0
17 Wayne Simmonds  84 20 21 2.7 0 0 0.48 2 0
19 Kevin Westgarth  37.56 5 7 0.0
0 0 0.0 0 0
21 Scott Parse  16.08 2 10 1.48 0 0 0.0 0 0
22 Trevor Lewis  68.76 9 21 9.54 2 11 17.5 2 0
23 Dustin Brown  85.02 14 26 21.4 12 9 10.3 1 2
25 Dustin Penner  71.58 9 17 15 2 0 20.6 0 0
26 Michal Handzus  77.7 10 26 19.6 9 9 1.48 1 2
27 Alexei Ponikarovsky  37.48 6 4 0.72 1 3 13.1 0 0
28 Jarret Stoll  66.45 14 22 10.9 2 11 0.0 2 0
33 Willie Mitchell  120.4 27 30 1.02 0 8 19.6 0 0
53 Alec Martinez  67.26 10 13 10.9 1 0 0.42 0 0
94 Ryan Smyth  85.68 14 19 21.9 12 1 1.02 2 2

 

Jack Johnson was just destroyed in this series.  A look at the WOWY shows the stark details with Johnson on the ice:

Kings w/ Johnson:  14 / 35 - 28.6%
Kings w/o Johnson:  36 / 45 - 44.4%


As bad as Johnson was, Doughty was just that good.  His WOWY is stunning.  He held the team together while on the ice, but as soon as he left, everything went bad, very bad.

Kings w/ Doughty:  27 / 26 - 50.9%
Kings w/o Doughty:  23 / 54 - 29.9%

 

Los Angeles - Chances Differential / 15

# Player CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
9 Oscar Moller  3.690 1.845 1.845
27 Alexei Ponikarovsky  2.401 1.601 0.800
8 Drew Doughty  3.494 3.364 0.129
17 Wayne Simmonds  3.571 3.750 -0.179
15 Brad Richardson  4.131 4.310 -0.180
33 Willie Mitchell  3.363 3.737 -0.374
53 Alec Martinez  2.230 2.899 -0.669
19 Kevin Westgarth  1.997 2.796 -0.799
94 Ryan Smyth  2.451 3.326 -0.875
13 Kyle Clifford  3.456 4.416 -0.960
14 Justin Williams  2.066 3.569 -1.503
25 Dustin Penner  1.886 3.562 -1.676
28 Jarret Stoll  3.160 4.966 -1.806
2 Matt Greene  1.636 3.636 -2.000
23 Dustin Brown  2.470 4.587 -2.117
22 Trevor Lewis  1.963 4.581 -2.618
26 Michal Handzus  1.931 5.019 -3.089
3 Jack Johnson  2.111 5.277 -3.166
7 Rob Scuderi  1.883 5.359 -3.476
21 Scott Parse  1.866 9.328 -7.463

 

One of the interesting parts of Johnson's performance is his zonestart numbers.  The first thing I thought about when looking at these numbers was the possibility of the Johnson - Scuderi pairing being thrown to the wolves.  But that wasn't the case:


Opct
Martinez 54.8
Johnson 46.2
Doughty 41
Scuderi 39
Greene 37.5
Mitchell 37.5

 

In fact, Alec Martinez was the only defenseman the Kings' staff chose to protect.

Murray chose to use Handzus in a shutdown role and Handzus wasn't up for it.  Anze Kopitar in a power-versus-power role may well have changed the face of the series, but as it played out, Handzus gave up more chances per minute on the ice than any other Kings' forward.

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances

*Click to enlarge all charts

  Sharksvskingsh2hchances_medium

Clowe - Couture - Heatley wrecked the Johnson - Scuderi pairing, while at the same time Mitchell and Doughty were able to beat them. 

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Time On Ice

Sharksvskingsh2hicetime_medium

Ferrari's scripts also make it very easy to view the series matchups through head-to-head ice time.  Compiling those numbers shows an interesting story:  except for Ian White's injury and flipping Ben Eager for Jamie McGinn, McClellan rolled the same lines and pairings game in and game out.  He formed the men into the phalanx and went on the attack.  Murray, on the other hand, tried bouncing forwards around in order to find anyone able to get the puck back from the Sharks.  While the Sharks' TOI numbers are generally close in each line or pairing, the Kings are scattered everywhere except for the Clifford - Richardson - Simmonds.

 

Head-to-Head Even Strength Scoring Chances / 15

Sharksvskingsh2hchancesper15_medium

The full depth and breadth of the Johnson - Scuderi pairing's inept play are on display here.  For every 15 minutes of even strength play, they were giving up four more chances than the Kings were creating to the Couture line.  They were giving up between three and five more chances per 15 minutes to the Thornton line.  Not to be outdone - Matt Greene was buried by the Thornton line.

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