Oilers Sign Cameron Abney
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 7:01 AM MDT
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For the last several days, I've been in denial - speaking of which, was there a hockey game last night? - and each day I check back to the Oilers' website hoping to discover that some kind of strange mistake was made and that the player the Oilers signed on April 21st is a young Swede. Sadly, it's time to admit that it was, in fact, WHL enforcer Cameron Abney who set new highs in all of the boxcar categories save penalty minutes. Unfortunately, 8-13-21 in 64 games as a 19 year-old in the WHL still isn't very good.
Over the last year or so, I'd hoped that the team had come to acknowledge that drafting Abney in the third round was a mistake, and that by the start of June, he'd be off the books for good. Sadly, the club has compounded the mistake by signing him to a three-year contract.
That's not to say that Abney doesn't have a chance. He does. The kid can fight (although he didn't do much of it this season) and Tom Renney wants an enforcer. He played one regularly in New York, and has played Steve MacIntyre semi-regularly in Edmonton. Heck, he talked about developing MacIntyre, and that guy is in his mid-twenties. That means that Abney has just one guy to pass on the current roster to make the club, and that the Oilers are going to be willing to let him develop.
Some of that is likely already happening. Over his last 22 WHL games, Abney produced 11 points, which might just be a hot run, or might reflect improvement in his hockey skills, something that he'll desperately need in order to make the transition to the next level. His plus/minus is also just -3, which isn't very good, but is better than three of the other regular forwards on his team. There are, at least, some encouraging signs.
So why is this signing a mistake? It's pretty simple. With the Oilers accumulating a lot of draft picks and signing more college free agents, they'll be up against the fifty-contract limit. Not everyone can be signed every year. The Oilers probably aren't going to lose any priority prospects because of it, but taking a flyer on Abney likely means not taking a flyer on, say, Robby Dee, or another college free agent, or a quality AHL veteran like Colin McDonald.
Further, it means that the Oilers are investing money in developing a player whose realistic "it all goes right" expectation is "NHL enforcer". I don't like the idea of signing a team goon, but it's not a job that's all that difficult to fill. There are plenty of candidates for the job! So why invest money in developing one? It's plain silly.
A third-round pick. About $165,000 in bonus money and $160,000 in salary over three years. Three years on the fifty-man roster. These are significant investments. What's done is done, so I'll be cheering for Abney to blow my expectations out of the water, but after a spring that's seen Steve Tambellini do a lot of good things, this deal stands out as a mistake.
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MacIntyre is actually 30, which makes Renney’s comments about “developing” him even worse…
Whilst I completely agree that signing Abney (even drafting him) was a mistake, what’s done is done… If he can become a better skating (and that does seem to be a highlighted skill of his whenever you read about him) version of SMac, which in turn will allow him to be a more effective hitter, as well as having SMac’s fighting skills, then if we are destined to reserve a contract spot for a goon then one who you can actually trust to send over the boards more than twice a game might be ok. It seems like he’s a slightly more effective hockey player than SMac, a better skater than SMac and Stortini (but probably not as good as Jacques), and a better fighter than Jacques and Stortini. That probably averages out to someone who could effectively be a healthy version of Jacques. Thats not good of course, unless he can be developed to work out like Stortini in that he doesn’t hurt the team, maybe even help it. I’m being really, really optimistic here.
Well, I agree with your last sentence :)
If Cameron Abney is ever as good a hockey player as J.F. Jacques or Zack Stortini, I’ll be extremely (but pleasantly) surprised.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions
If he somehow turns out to be just as good as J.F. Jacques he still shouldn’t be anywhere near an NHL roster.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
haha! My point was more that his speed and fighting skills could (emphasis on could) make him a more effective version of MacIntyre, who can’t skate very well at all and as a result can’t do much at all. I should probably make it even clearer that (as stated in my first sentence) I agree that signing him was a mistake!
So Abney is somewhere between Smac (2 pts in 47 WHL games at 19) and Stortini (40pts in 58 OHL games at 19).
JFJ is well clear of him too.
Let’s not forget that this isn’t a vaccum… all these players you mentioned played junior as well and, with the exception of Smac, killed Abney in terms of production.
Saying Abney could average out to be a healthy version of Jacques kind of ignores how far behind Jacques Abney is at the same point in their development.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Saying Abney could average out to be a healthy version of Jacques kind of ignores how far behind Jacques Abney is at the same point in their development.
Abney is behind Cam Janssen.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
how about a “poor-mans Jacques (albeit healthy)” as an edit to my comment then? I was more saying that he clearly has more hockey skills than MacIntyre did in junior, and is somewhere between him and Jacques/Stortini (but at the lower end of that spectrum). The Jacques comparison was more in terms of what Jacques has become, not so much what Jacques was at the junior level. Look at Jacques now (his playing style and his NHL stats) and you’d never have guessed really that he was an ok junior player. And lets face it, if MacIntyre and Jacques can make it to the NHL for extended periods of time then anything is possible with Abney. (I will grant that JFJ did look like a quality prospect in his AHL days).
Sorry if I offended the glass-half-empty people today, but I’m in a good mood and at the end of the day if a player is in Oiler silks (or affiliated teams) then I will be supporting said-player to make it, no matter how bad a mistake it was to get them in the first place. Part of the team I support, so I support the people with the team :)
p.s. if I didn’t look at it this way, I’d probably choke to death on my own vomit.
As a glass-half-full type myself, I agree entirely with these sentiments. If there’s one thing Oiler fans can hang their hat on it’s in the organization’s prospects. Obviously they see something in this guy to a) draft him in the first place and b) sign him two years later. So, good luck to him and let’s see what happens.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
They also obviously see something in JFJ, Smac and Khabibulin too.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Uhh, prospects?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 28, 2011 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not offended… I’m just pointing out that there is a long way to go before Abney is even at Jacques level.
I understand the style comparison, but it’s hard to compare guys who score 10-15 points in a 4th line role in the NHL and guys who do the same thing in the AHL.
Is Abney ahead of MacIntyre? No doubt. Is he anywhere near JFJ/Stortini? No.
And I get supporting young players, I really do. But without a remarkable turnaround, all Abney projects to be is a 4th liner who can fight and not do much else. I don’t want that on my hockey team. And if I did want it I’d grab a 25 year old to do it, not some kid who I’m going to have to waste a contract spot on in the minors for 4 years.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I’ve got to assume he won’t even make the Barons to start the season next year. He could get a call later in the season depending on injuries I guess. His road to the NHL is a very very long one to say the least.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I actually think there’s a pretty good chance of him making the Barons unless the organization brings in yet another enforcer.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Flames did the same thing a few years ago with Ryley Grantham. He scored 12 goals and 29 points in his final year in the WHL, but has been about as bad as you would expect in pro: 1 goal, 7 points in 89 games in the AHL. He ended up in the ECHL last season despite the fact the Abbotsford Heat were the youngest team in the league and riddled with injuries.
So, yeah, NHL scouting departments are still picking goons, despite the fact they are:
a.) useless and
b.) Freely available at minimum wage every summer.
Freely available at minimum wage every summer.
this i would dispute, although it really is difficult to judge levels of badness in enforcers. i know if i valued enforcers, i’d probably try to have one in my system who’s A: not a total liability as a hockey player, B: can keep the bad penalties to a minimum and C: can hold his own against other NHL level enforcers. i mean, sure, there are guys like trevor gillies available every year, but
gillies was a 26.4% fenwick player this year. you’d want to have a guy who can be at least 40%.
gillies was a 26.4% fenwick player this year. you’d want to have a guy who can be at least 40%.
One of the reasons I like having chances and Fenwick data is trying to find the replacement levels for players. I think 40% is too low, given what I’ve seen thus far. I still have no conclusions, but 40% players are really, really, awful.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
One of the reasons I like having chances and Fenwick data is trying to find the replacement levels for players. I think 40% is too low, given what I’ve seen thus far. I still have no conclusions, but 40% players are really, really, awful.
without context it’s obviously difficult to judge, and enforcers tend to get a tiny amount of ice time so there’s variance issues there as well. but yeah, of course your enforcer is likely to be below replacement level. still, there are levels below levels – gillies is almost certainly not replacement level in the AHL. someone like laraque was above replacement level.
it’s one of the odder things in sports – there’s no analogue in the other 3 major team sports. i’m sure it plays havoc with trying to actually set a replacement level – that there are teams who very willingly sign and play guys who are below it.
Gillies is (the) one guy who was demonstratively worse than MacIntyre this season. Much, much worse. (scroll to the very bottom)
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Gillies is also kind of crazy though and I think that’s much more important than finding a guy you pretend can play if you insist on playing an enforcer. The guy’s job is not hockey, it’s mugging people, so you go and get the best mugger. He’s only going to get maybe 120 minutes of ice time all year, so the difference in goal differential will be minimal.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions
My Sentiments Exactly
“and each day I check back to the Oilers’ website hoping to discover that some kind of strange mistake was made and that the player the Oilers signed on April 21st is a young Swede.”
Its funny because I have been doing the exact same thing on a daily basis.
Well, the buzz at the time was that there was one scout in the Oilers group who was really high on the guy, saw him as an undeveloped Terry O’Reilly. Now Terry O’Reilly was a late bloomer who developed into a lot of things, including but not limited to “goon”, in fact he became one of the dominant players on that fine Bruins squad of the late ’70s. That said he had shown quite a bit of offence by his last junior season. Whereas Abney was going nowhere offensively until very late in his last (?) junior season.
Abney could possibly be returned to the Oil Kings for an overage season, but more likely he will get his baptism to the pro game in the ECHL. He’s not so much a project as a mega-project. That said he has some nice skills – buddy can actually skate, and he resembles a real hockey player much more than the likes of MacIntyre.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Do you envision him as anything more than an eforcer/fighter in the nhl? skating or not.
In the perfect world, leafs would win the lottery
If I don my hydrogen-alpha sunglasses, yes. A better word than “envision” would be “imagine”. If the penny drops he Might become an effective grinder.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Sigh. Where is the second coming of Kevin McClelland when you need him. The dude could fight and play some hockey…
So could McSorley.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions
I can’t see why the Oil Kings would use a 20-year-old spot on a goon. It’s just not very smart. He’ll be turning pro.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Lazowski and Rachinski are both 1991 birthdays and would be far more valuable as an overage player than Abney. That leaves one 20 year old spot open but that probably goes to Groenheyed unless they bring in another goaltender.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
A quick list of UFA’s who can currently do Abneys projected role better than he can right now. They don’t cost a 3rd round pick.
Name Age GP G A P PIM FM
Konopka, Zenon " 30 82 2 7 9 307 25
Janssen, Cam " 26 54 1 3 4 131 17
McCormick, Cody " 28 81 8 12 20 142 16
Rupp, Michael " 31 81 9 8 17 124 12
Mayers, Jamal " 36 78 3 11 14 124 12
Winchester, Brad " 30 76 10 6 16 114 10
Bradley, Matt " 32 61 4 7 11 68 10
Glass, Tanner " 27 73 3 7 10 72 10
Hordichuk, Darcy " 30 64 1 4 5 76 10
Boulton, Eric " 34 69 6 4 10 87 9
Gillies, Trevor " 32 39 2 0 2 165 9
Sutherby, Brian " 29 51 2 2 4 58 8
Koci, David " 29 35 1 0 1 80 8
Key words are “right now”. Prospects are all about down the road. They’re also about filling equivalent roles on developmental teams.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
Why waste resources developing this role when you can purchase a known commodity cheap? The list for 4th line grinders and goons for the AHL and ECHL is much larger than the one I posted.
What resources are being wasted exactly? One of 50 roster spots? A two-way contract for minimum/minimum $$$? No biggie.
All teams “waste” resources in a similar fashion, in that they have players of all types populating their organizations, not just the big club. Even goalies!
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
yes but that spot could be given to a guy who has a potential to be more than that. someone that could be picked up on waivers.
Abney may be good and all, but realistically do you think he gets drafted in a re-draft? If you want to develop him, sign him to an ahl contract, track his progress and then sign him if the team likes what it sees down the road,
In the perfect world, leafs would win the lottery
They can spend the roster spot on something a lot more useful. They can also spend the money on something a lot more useful. I get that it’s not the end of the world, but $300,000 and a tied-up spot for three years isn’t nothing either.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions
They can spend the roster spot on something a lot more useful. They can also spend the money on something a lot more useful. I get that it’s not the end of the world, but $300,000 and a tied-up spot for three years isn’t nothing either.
In the context of minor league development, it’s as close to nothing as you can get. Can you remember a time when a team gave up an even moderately useful piece because of reserve list issues?
It’s hard to say because these are all sins of omission. The guys they’re losing out on are the guys they’re choosing not to sign.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Clearly your definition of “useful” and the organization’s are at odds.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 3:00 PM MDT up reply actions
This is true. I think goons are useless. The organization does not.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions
It was ever thus. Might as well get used to it.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 9:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Right then. I’ll make sure to align my thoughts with the organization’s on all issues going forward. Every article in praise of management!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 9:25 PM MDT up reply actions
You’ve taken a job with the Edmonton Journal?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Goddammit you guys, that’s not the point at all. “It was ever thus” refers to the hockey community as a whole, not just this organization. Goons have been a way of life since forever, much as you (or I for that matter) might want to wish them away.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 28, 2011 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions
This begs the question: If lots of people do a stupid thing does that make it less stupid?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 28, 2011 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Society as a whole does a shitload of stuff that I would consider “stupid”, but at a certain point one just has to accept “stupid” as “normal” and carry on.
I think changing our clocks twice a year is stupid, but that doesn’t mean I don’t do it myself.
You’re right about one thing, though, it definitely does beg the question.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 28, 2011 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions
WOW
That is quite a list I really do not Know as much as many of you about this but as a scientist this does not seem logical. If the coach gave free will to big Mac saying Protection of the kids is #1 I could understand the whole enforcer thing a bit better. In other words you touch the kids and I will be hunting you. Yes your team may get an extra 2 min but you will be putting your Burgers in the blender for a few days. I could understand it. I will be honest, so much of the whole enforcer thing is a mystery to me as to how the Oiler management perceives the role.
by Sheldon Oilers Fan for Life on Apr 27, 2011 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions
In other words you touch the kids and I will be hunting you. Yes your team may get an extra 2 min but you will be putting your Burgers in the blender for a few days. I could understand it.
This is my perspective as well. If you employ a goon, he had better be goonish.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions
Its not like the Oilers haven’t had some good ones over the years to know what one should look like: Semenko (knew who to fight, was a little nuts when fighting, see headbutts), McClelland (could play some hockey, once challenged the Jets bench to a fight after thumping one of thier goons and had no takers), McSorley (’nuff said), Brown (the man could pummel).
And I agree, if you have a team full of midgets, and you have a goon, he had better have the sherrif badge on his shirt and deal frontier justice when required. Again, see Semenko, Dave…
Every one of those examples is pre instigator rule. The game has changed. Guys who start fights hurt your team.
In the context of the 2010-11 Oilers, I’d have been happier with MacIntyre if he’d taken an instigator penalty in every game he played.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 2:49 PM MDT up reply actions
Are you not entertained?
I would have rather seen a 4th line of Ogie Oglethorpe, Maximus Decimus Meridius and Krusty the Clown. Just for entertainment value.
However, if we are discussing actually trying to win hockey games, goons haven’t been of value since the instigator rule.
Sure, but the 2010-11 Oilers weren’t really in the business of winning hockey games. They were in the business of developing players and making sure those players didn’t get hurt.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 27, 2011 5:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Sorry, but I think you are making WAY to much of the instigator rule. It’s two minutes. The average NHL team racks up around 500 penalty kill minutes in a year (Oilers were 518 this past season), and if your goon got an instigator for all of his fights, which would never happen, he’d put up 32 of them.
Its a lot easier to win hockey games when your star players are on the ice, not on IR.
I would love to see the NHL actual implement rules and discipline that makes the enforcer unneccessary, but as long as that clown Campbell is running league discipline, there will be a role. In fact, unless the league goes out an hires someone from the NFL to replace Bettman, there will continue to be a role.
I don’t think MacIntyre type players are required.
That said MacIntyre was probably his most useful when he jumped Staubitz in the second last game of the year. We ended up with a seven minute penalty kill but at least some Wild players might at least think about a cheap shot next time around knowing MacIntyre is willing to just jump them. Angry stares from the bench don’t do that.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Wasn’t that the game where Clutterbuck got a boarding major about one minute after MacIntyre sent that message? Doesn’t sound like it was received.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2011 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions
By “some Wild players” I mean not Clutterbuck. Even if MacIntyre destroyed Clutterbuck it wouldn’t stop him from doing the same damn thing on his next shift.
Like I said I don’t like designated hitters playing for the Oilers, or in the NHL, but if we’re going to have one that’s the kind of crap they’ve got to do. And it still won’t stop everything.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
A two minute penalty to protect your star players is a small price to pay, imo. It’s not gonna happen every game. What’s the average number of fights for a goon, 16? He’s not going to get instigators for all of them, so its managable. Look, if the NHL is gonna let players get away with hits like the one Richards did on Connolly (including taking his hand off his stick to direct Connolly’s head into the boards) then there is a role for those that can carry out frontier justice. And the more small players the Oilers carry, the more that is necessary. I just want a goon who can actually play a little hockey as well and knows when to fight.
Goons don’t “protect” star players. There’s zero evidence they accomplish this and zero evidence it makes any difference to injury levels, goal level or win rates. It’s a fantasy. It’s the tiger repellent of the NHL. A placebo at best.
When it comes to the confidence of young players, sometimes even a placebo can be effective. However, I was not aware of any definitive analysis done either way. Such a study would need to factor in which goons are used purely as a side show vs those that actually play a policing role. Love to read it if you know where I can find it. All I think I have ever seen is looking at goons as a whole and I am not sure that would actually prove or disprove the theory.
When was the last time you saw a goon punch a guy so hard that he changed his game forever?
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Dave Semenko punching out Rick Vaive was one such occasion. Vaive was a brash rookie who came into the game leading the WHA in penalty minutes (I believe he had about 185 at the time), who instigated the whole affair by forcing Semenko offside by crosschecking him in the head. Semenko’s response was as you can imagine, with the final punch leaving Vaive lying on the ice with his head stuffed inside his sweater. I’ll never forget it.
Vaive enver missed a game, but I followed his progress thereafter and he had one minor penalty in the next ten games. He did wind up leading the league with 248 minutes, but he soon settled down into a power forward of the ~100 PiM per season type, while studiously avoiding going outside of his weight class. Did him a lot of good, actually.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 29, 2011 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions
The Oilers probably aren’t going to lose any priority prospects because of it, but taking a flyer on Abney likely means not taking a flyer on, say, Robby Dee, or another college free agent, or a quality AHL veteran like Colin McDonald.
There isn’t even an alternate evil universe in which Abney has more value than Dee.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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