Shawn Horcoff Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Apr 20, 2011 10:00 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

Shawn Horcoff's first year as Captain of a team built to land another lottery pick saw him play a well-defined role: he was the defensively-responsible housesitter assigned to protect his own zone while the kids went gallivanting around the rink. Horcoff played with fewer linemates than any other forward with as many games. In a way, his housesitting duties rescued his reputation amongst Edmonton fans. Prior to the season, the fan's book on Horcoff went something like this: "overpaid, useless, terrible, awful." Now he's thought of in a completely different manner - he's the guy that allowed the kids to do their thing.

Chance % Team Rank: 3/23
Chance % Fwd Rank: 2/15

Diff/60 Team Rank: 3/23
Diff/60 Fwd Rank: 2/15

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	41	35	41	35	0.539	0.453
11-20	61	70	20	35	0.364	0.401
21-30	97	94	36	24	0.600	0.449
31-40						0.467
41-50	126	110	29	16	0.644	0.531
51-60	163	151	37	41	0.474	0.470
61-70	199	186	36	35	0.507	0.454
71-82						0.486

*click to enlarge

In games 21-30 and 41-50, Horcoff and friends were killing it. At first glance, it seems like Horcoff, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle were responsible for dragging the Oilers' team average up to respectability.

	With Horcoff			Without Horcoff			Horcoff Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	121	86	0.585	228	235	0.492	78	100	0.438
14	100	90	0.526	209	213	0.495	99	96	0.508
27	60	57	0.513	188	191	0.496	139	129	0.519
83	59	79	0.428	134	119	0.530	140	107	0.567
91	31	30	0.508	234	292	0.445	168	156	0.519

2	51	55	0.481	195	244	0.444	148	131	0.530
5	62	54	0.534	270	323	0.455	137	132	0.509
6	36	51	0.414	132	142	0.482	163	135	0.547
26	44	34	0.564	195	267	0.422	155	152	0.505
43	17	19	0.472	123	141	0.466	182	167	0.521
49	64	61	0.512	214	299	0.417	135	125	0.519
58	22	14	0.611	140	129	0.520	177	172	0.507
77	91	71	0.562	280	321	0.466	108	115	0.484

As I wrote in the opening - Horcoff had a very specifically-defined role - protect Hall and Eberle. He was never subjected to the Renney/Injury blender.

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Comments

Nice to see Horcoff have a solid season after getting killed by the percentages and poor play a year ago. Interesting that Horcoff and Hemsky perform so poorly together. I didn’t expect that at all. Hemsky aside, he seems pretty good with all of the forwards listed, which means, given his “Without Hall” numbers, he must have been crap with most everyone not listed.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2011 3:58 PM MDT reply actions

There was a bunch of crap to play with.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 20, 2011 7:54 PM MDT up reply actions

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Oilers Schedule

Last 5 Games

@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sat 04/07	L 0 - 3
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Thu 04/05	OT - L 2 - 3
@ Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Mon 04/02	L 0 - 2
@ Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Sun 04/01	W 2 - 1
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Fri 03/30	L 1 - 4

Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (27-11, .711)
St. Louis Blues (24-10, .706)
Vancouver Canucks (22-10, .688)
Los Angeles Kings (18-11, .621)
San Jose Sharks (18-13, .581)
Phoenix Coyotes (20-15, .571)
Nashville Predators (18-14, .563)
Chicago Blackhawks (21-19, .525)
Colorado Avalanche (16-19, .457)
Dallas Stars (18-22, .450)
Anaheim Ducks (14-19, .424)
Edmonton Oilers (18-25, .419)
Calgary Flames (13-21, .382)
Columbus Blue Jackets (14-31, .311)
Minnesota Wild (8-22,.267)

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (31-13, .711)
Boston Bruins (27-11, .711)
New York Rangers (25-16, .610)
Philadelphia Flyers (21-17, .553)
New Jersey Devils (18-16, .529)
Ottawa Senators (19-17, .528)
Washington Capitals (20-19, .513)
Montreal Canadiens (16-19, .457)
Winnipeg Jets (15-19, .441)
Buffalo Sabres (14-18, .438)
Carolina Hurricanes (13-17, .433)
Florida Panthers (14-19, .424)
Toronto Maple Leafs (17-24, .415)
New York Islanders (8-23, .258)
Tampa Bay Lightning (10-30, .250)

Division Standings

Central (79-58, .577)
Atlantic (68-50, .576)
Pacific (62-54, .534)
Northeast (69-65, .515)
Northwest (49-69, .415)
Southeast (51-81, .386)

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