Ryan Whitney Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Apr 18, 2011 11:30 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

Ryan Whitney posted some rather exciting results in 2010-2011. As Jonathan noted, it was his career year, offensively, at least. He was alone in the top pairing for most of the season as Tom Renney chose to rotate the rest of the defense through the first pairing with Whitney. One of the Oilers' biggest needs in the off-season is stability in the top pairing - a defensively mindful partner who can cover the roost when Whitney goes roaming.

Chance % Team Rank: 11/23
Chance % Def Rank: 5/8

Diff/60 Team Rank: 11/23
Diff/60 Def Rank: 5/8

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	43	51	43	51	0.457	0.453
11-20	84	107	41	56	0.423	0.401
21-30	144	169	60	62	0.492	0.449
31-40	168	193	24	24	0.500	0.467
41-50						0.531
51-60						0.470
61-70						0.454
71-82						0.486

*click to enlarge

Whitney and the Oilers had the same .465 chance % for the entire season, but at the time Whitney went down to injury, the Oilers' team chance % was .442 - they actually improved after losing Whitney.
Whitney was better than the team average in each segment, not an easy task for the team's default #1 defender.

	With Whitney			Without Whitney			Whitney Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	63	65	0.492	286	256	0.528	105	128	0.451
10	36	51	0.414	163	135	0.547	132	142	0.482
13	46	55	0.455	244	274	0.471	122	138	0.469
14	56	66	0.459	253	237	0.516	112	127	0.469
16	10	24	0.294	80	111	0.419	158	169	0.483
27	52	49	0.515	196	199	0.496	116	144	0.446
28	21	36	0.368	142	228	0.384	147	157	0.484
46	7	18	0.280	38	41	0.481	161	175	0.479
67	30	38	0.441	78	116	0.402	138	155	0.471
83	46	36	0.561	147	162	0.476	122	157	0.437
89	67	57	0.540	204	260	0.440	101	136	0.426
91	56	58	0.491	209	264	0.442	112	135	0.453

2	41	42	0.494	205	257	0.444	127	151	0.457
5	15	20	0.429	317	357	0.470	153	173	0.469
26	29	30	0.492	210	271	0.437	139	163	0.460
43	32	28	0.533	108	132	0.450	136	165	0.452
49	7	21	0.250	271	339	0.444	161	172	0.483
77	42	54	0.438	329	338	0.493	126	139	0.475

Whitney was involved in 361 total chances during the season. Tom Gilbert partnered with Whitney for 96 of those, or 26.6% of Whitney's total chances. Jim Vandermeer was on the top pairing for 83 chances, or 23.0%. Jason Strudwick totaled 60 chances for 16.6%. Whitney paired with Kurtis Foster for 59 chances, or 16.3%. At no point in his injury-shortened season was Whitney able to rely on a partner.

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Comments

One of the Oilers’ biggest needs in the off-season is stability in the top pairing – a defensively mindful partner who can cover the roost when Whitney goes roaming.

You don’t think Strudwick could carry the load?

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Apr 18, 2011 12:06 PM MDT reply actions

I think I am being guarded here, but my analysis of Whitney’s season starts and ends with his PDO. and the fact that his ESP/60 was higher than any other time in his career

In the perfect world, leafs would win the lottery

by SumOil on Apr 18, 2011 12:13 PM MDT reply actions

Bingo. That’s the key stat I’ll be addressing in Whitney Part Two over at the Cult of Hockey.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 18, 2011 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions

The scoring chance metric gives hope for a some team improvement next year.

Unfortunately for his points, I think you are right. Team Sh% with him on led the league by a wide margin for D:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=34&s=32&f1=2010_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+29+30+31+32+33+34#snip=f

Mike Green had a similar trend in 2009, which looks like it bumped his numbers even beyond Whitney 2010 – only to return to earth once again this season. Still some very good counting numbers if his feet are fixed and he can play a full season.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=34&s=32&f1=2010_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+29+30+31+32+33+34#snip=f

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Apr 18, 2011 1:19 PM MDT up reply actions

But what is the analysis?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 18, 2011 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions

I did some number crunching at the end of the season, I must say there are some real positives to him, but I am going to wait for Bruce’s analysis tomorrow before saying more.

In the perfect world, leafs would win the lottery

by SumOil on Apr 18, 2011 5:59 PM MDT up reply actions

Thanks for the help!

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 19, 2011 12:15 AM MDT up reply actions

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