Ladislav Smid Scoring Chances 2010-2011

by Derek Zona on Apr 16, 2011 10:00 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

Ladislav Smid is 6'3" 225 lb defenseman, 25-year old former first-round pick who has already played 331 games in his career. By most measures, he would be considered a success. Unfortunately, those 331 games have been played for the worst franchise in the league and at age 25, he's still considered a work in progress, a developing talent. As he did in each of the previous two seasons, Smid showed signs of real promise in 2010-2011, but he also displayed habits developed while playing his formative years in a blender.

Chance % Team Rank: 9/23
Chance % Def Rank: 3/8

Diff/60 Team Rank: 8/23
Diff/60 Def Rank: 3/8

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game #	TCF	TCA	SCF	SCA	Segment %	Team Seg %
1-10	31	32	31	32	0.492	0.453
11-20	51	68	20	36	0.357	0.401
21-30	90	124	39	56	0.411	0.449
31-40	144	186	54	62	0.466	0.467
41-50	200	230	56	44	0.560	0.531
51-60	248	281	48	51	0.485	0.470
61-70	294	330	46	49	0.484	0.454
71-82	332	377	38	47	0.447	0.486

*click to enlarge

Smid's mid-season arc was highlighted by games 41-50 when he posted a .560 chance %. That ten game group included games at Dallas (2), San Jose, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Anaheim and home games against Minnesota, Dallas, Nashville, and Los Angeles. Smid was paired with Jeff Petry for that entire stretch.

	With Smid			Without Smid			Smid Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
4	118	113	0.511	231	208	0.526	214	264	0.448
10	62	54	0.534	137	132	0.509	270	323	0.455
13	97	111	0.466	193	218	0.470	235	266	0.469
14	98	96	0.505	211	207	0.505	234	281	0.454
16	38	30	0.559	52	105	0.331	294	347	0.459
22	26	20	0.565	47	73	0.392	306	357	0.462
23	50	68	0.424	103	117	0.468	282	309	0.477
27	83	81	0.506	165	167	0.497	249	296	0.457
28	57	95	0.375	106	169	0.385	275	282	0.494
46	17	11	0.607	28	48	0.368	315	366	0.463
67	32	60	0.348	76	94	0.447	300	317	0.486
83	65	52	0.556	128	146	0.467	267	325	0.451
85	34	39	0.466	77	94	0.450	298	338	0.469
89	93	112	0.454	178	205	0.465	239	265	0.474
91	85	109	0.438	180	213	0.458	247	268	0.480

2	18	31	0.367	228	268	0.460	314	346	0.476
6	15	20	0.429	153	173	0.469	317	357	0.470
26	66	94	0.413	173	207	0.455	266	283	0.485
43	16	16	0.500	124	144	0.463	316	361	0.467
49	10	25	0.286	268	335	0.444	322	352	0.478
58	92	84	0.523	70	59	0.543	240	293	0.450
77	117	110	0.515	254	282	0.474	215	267	0.446

Smid with Tom Gilbert and Petry posted 209 CF 194 CA or .519 chance %. Smid without those two posted a brutal 123 CF 183 CA for a .402 chance %. I've written about Smid's results with defensemen who can move the puck out on their own: "...but there's a clear trend. Give Smid a partner capable of handling the puck and pushing it up the ice via skating ability or passing ability and Smid is a bonafide NHL defender. Pair him with Steve Staios, Kurtis Foster, or Jason Strudwick and the results are brutal."
The numbers in this table that surprised me the most were Smid with Colin Fraser, J.F. Jacques and Zack Stortini.

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Comments

Yeah, we saw the exact same thing last year when Smid paired with Visnovsky, he was successful, but when he played with plugs he was just another plug. The easy thing would be to credit the puck mover for Ladi’s success, but to my eye he forms a nice complementary player in such a pairing and carries at least a decent share of the weight.

I’d be pretty comfortable with Ladi in a second pairing role with either Gilbert or Petry going forward, and the other RH puckmover to play with Whitney in the top pairing of course. That leaves Peckham and Needs Improvement together in the bottom group.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 16, 2011 10:23 AM MDT reply actions

I’d be pretty comfortable with Ladi in a second pairing role with either Gilbert or Petry going forward, and the other RH puckmover to play with Whitney in the top pairing of course. That leaves Peckham and Needs Improvement together in the bottom group.

I’d be happier with Whitney – Pitkanen on the 1st pairing, Smid – Gilbert on the 2nd pairing and Peckham – Petry on the third.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 16, 2011 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions

But … but … don’t you know that Pitkanen is bad in the room. He’s a little quiet, not such a team player, slightly quirky, likely a communist, almost certainly gay, and wouldn’t surprise me if he moonlighted for Al Queda. That’s just not the kind of person you have in a successful team. Frankly he’s just not Oiler material and thank goodness we got rid of him while we had the chance.

by Yeti# on Apr 16, 2011 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions

I wonder if they can’t find some depth D and put Smid and Petry together on the 3rd pairing for an entire season. Grow them into a top pairing

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 17, 2011 9:26 AM MDT up reply actions

This would be a good way to go, although you’d likely end up with eight defenders and thirteen forwards on the roster (not that that’s a bad thing). Kind of depends on what you mean by “depth D” though. To me, that means purchasing two pretty darn good players for a couple of years.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 17, 2011 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions

We could bring on guys like this

Jim Vandermeer
Kurtis Foster
Jason Strudwick

Hmmm. On to Plan Next.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 17, 2011 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions

Exactly. For me, the plan would be two guys who can reasonably play as your shut-down pairing.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 17, 2011 9:57 PM MDT up reply actions

And if they draft Larsson?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 18, 2011 6:58 AM MDT up reply actions

i still think he is 1 year away.

In the perfect world, leafs would win the lottery

by SumOil on Apr 18, 2011 7:48 AM MDT up reply actions

I’d probably leave him in Sweden for a year, or maybe two.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 18, 2011 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions

Pretty expected results (save the ones you mentioned)

The amazing black hole of scoring chances, aka Jonesy, still amazes me in his ability to drive the puck backwards.

Like Bruce, I think a second pairing of 77,5 would be decent. That means getting someone to play with 6 on the 1st pair. 49,58 as the 3rd pair.

That’s a D-corps that’s not so much a corpse if a Real NHL Dman can be signed for 1st pairing.

by Woodguy on Apr 16, 2011 10:26 AM MDT reply actions

The amazing black hole of scoring chances, aka Jonesy, still amazes me in his ability to drive the puck backwards.

Someone is going to overpay the guy.

Like Bruce, I think a second pairing of 77,5 would be decent. That means getting someone to play with 6 on the 1st pair. 49,58 as the 3rd pair.

Same here.

That’s a D-corps that’s not so much a corpse if a Real NHL Dman can be signed for 1st pairing.

It seems like a solid bunch. Foster as the 7th is still a concern. Actually, Peckham as the 6th is a bit of a concern as well.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 16, 2011 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions

I think 7th is Foster. I don’t think they will be able to move him.
I’m not sure they are going to try either.

It probably looks like this opening night:

6,77
5,58
49,26
Chorney, Plante

Meh.

Its funny, just one 1st pairing D turns the above into:

6,Bieksa type
5,77
49,58
26

Which is better than the first set by an order of magnitude.

Chorney and Plante are waiver eligible as well, and know how Vish/v3.0 love to hold onto assets with little value.

by Woodguy on Apr 16, 2011 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions

I think Plante still has a year, doesn’t he?

Right you are though about a top pairing guy allowing all the others to find something aporoaching their level. Same thing happened in reverse this year when Whitney went down and the others all had to move up.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 16, 2011 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions

Yeah, Chorney will need to clear waivers in 2011-12, but Plante does not.

With regard to signing defensemen, I’d pretty much have the same strategy this summer as I would have had last summer, which is to say, sign a shutdown pairing. Guys always get hurt, so someone like Petry will get his NHL minutes even if he needs to start in the AHL. If he forces the issue, so much the better.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2011 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions

Petry’s proven it. Foster should have to force the issue.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 16, 2011 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions

Yeah, I guess that didn’t make much sense; I might have him start in the AHL regardless just so that the team has more capable defensemen available to them. Realistically, you need about nine or ten guys, which means at least one or two needs to be waiver-exempt, and those guys need to start in the minors. Your suggestion of Smid and Petry on the third pairing is a good one, but it might leave them thin once the inevitable injuries hit.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 17, 2011 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions

you wish Larsson was more bonafide and Doughty-esque because it’s clear we need a guy up top and that allows the other guys not to have to play above their abilites.

by DennisK on Apr 16, 2011 1:37 PM MDT reply actions

I’m still taking Larsson.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 16, 2011 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions

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