Number That May Only Interest Me: -75
by Derek Zona on Apr 10, 2011 9:55 AM MDT
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The Edmonton Oilers have scored 190 goals and given up 265 goals for a goal differential of -75, last in the league. In 2009-2010, the Oilers scored 214 goals and surrendered 284 goals for a differential of -70, last in the league.
In his preseason prediction post, Scott crunched the numbers and predicted the Oilers would finish 30th in the NHL, but had some confidence in their growth as a team. He thought they'd improve by 17 goals to a differential of -60:
#30 - Edmonton Oilers (5th in the Northwest, 15th in the Western Conference) - I should be clear and say that no team is actually likely to finish in last place. Someone is bound to get a slew of injuries, or a long run of bad luck and finish below the Oilers, but on paper, this team is one of the worst in the league. This isn't last year's team healthy again. There's no Sheldon Souray, no Denis Grebeshkov, no Lubomir Visnovsky, and no veterans up front other than the big three. The goaltending is already bad, and will almost certainly get worse if and when Khabibulin goes down to injury; the defenders are all being asked to play a bigger role than they've been capable of; and there are three raw rookies in the top nine, with nothing for NHL-level support behind them if they struggle. Goal differential prediction: -60 (Change from 2009-10: +17)
Without a five goal blowout of the Avalanche there will be no improvement.
One positive in all of this is the play of Devan Dubnyk. In 35 appearances, he posted a .916 save percentage and generally been a stellar presence in net, something the Oilers haven't had since Dwayne Roloson left town. Unfortunately, Dubnyk's play was matched by Nikolai Khabibulin's terrible season. Khbibulin posted a save percentage of .891, ranking 45th of 47 qualifying goaltenders. If the Oilers starter / #1 goaltender could have delievered just league-average goaltending, a .910 save percentage, in his 46 appearances, the Oilers' goals against would have been reduced by 26 for the season. 190 goals for and 239 goals against, a -49 goal differential, ranks 28th in the league this year. Improvement!
Alas, Khabibulin has two years left on his contract and turned 38 in January. Barring a management decision to cut ties with the netminder, the Oilers' goal differential is in trouble for the next two years.
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I also apparently stink at math. I wonder where the heck I got -77 from for last season.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 10:08 AM MDT reply actions
Shootout "goals"
often fuck up this equation. It’s not always obvious on first glance whether they’re included & there are different view points on whether they Should be
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 10, 2011 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
This is true, and I wish that out was there for me, but I’m pretty sure I just screwed up :)
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Thomas Greiss is on re-entry waivers right now. Can ST please pick him up, I believe he is RFA after this season.
He is… but… he’s on a one-way deal this year, which means the Oilers would need to qualify him with a one-way deal in order to retain his rights, which they definitely should not do. Greiss was bad in Sweden this year and has never been all that good in the AHL either.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions
It will save them money. If the goal is to be bad, you can hire a slug to play for the minimum to do that.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
You say it will save them money but how?
Even if you account for the time value of money, they will have to sign someone lse to play with DD which will definitely offset any marginal benefits
without honor, victory is hollow
Assuming they sign a slug for the minimum over the next two years, it still saves them $1.5M without considering the time value thing, and that ain’t nothing. I can’t see a good reason not to buy Khabibulin out (unless they want to try to void his contract).
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions
As a fan, we should not want a buy out. I have said this so many times, but it seems people don’t realize this: buying out NK benefits only Katz’s pocketbook. And not even that much (33%). So as a fan, I’d prefer out wealthy owner to absorb the losses to maximize the available cap 3-4 years down the road.
Finally, based on his numbers over his career, there is some chance he can still produce a season or two of league average goaltending, or at least backup level goaltending.
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
I don’t believe in Khabibulin. He’s old and frequently injured, and those guys don’t often rebound. I think the Oilers can make a better bet with the money saved if they buy Khabibulin out. As for the what it hurts, I think assuming that the Oilers are a cap team might be a mistake, which means saving money is important. Even if they are, because it’s a 35+ contract, Khabibulin getting bought out wont’ hurt them down the road. I’m pretty sure a buyout on his deal would result in saving money and the same cap hit as he has now:
Cap Hit:
2011-12 – 3.75M
2012-13 – 3.75M
2013-14 – 0
2014-15 – 0
Cash:
2011-12 – 1.25M
2012-13 – 1.25M
2013-14 – 1.25M
2014-15 – 1.25M
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 3:51 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t believe in Khabibulin. He’s old and frequently injured, and those guys don’t often rebound.
You know, people have said the same thing about Santa Claus and he seems to be doing just fine.
Are you kidding me? In the 1970’s the average age that a child stopped believing was 9.23459403 and that’s steadily declined to 7.45939202 today. Santa Claus is on his way out, my friend.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 10, 2011 7:13 PM MDT up reply actions
2013-14 – 1.25M
2014-15 – 1.25M
Years we might need that space (if you are optimistic). I’m not saying I totally believe in Khabi either, but if he can provide backup goaltending, why buy him out?
The real question is whether or not Katz saving real dollars with the Khabi contract will make some difference in how he utlizies the cap in the future. My guess is no. Which makes the clear choice to keep Khabi at least for one more year unless he starts delivering below backup caliber goaltending.
http://hockeyzen.com - An Oilers blog
That’s cash, not cap hit.
And at this point he can’t provide backup goaltending. He’s actually a liability on the ice.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Right. It’s just money in the last two years, and it saves money overall, so it seems like a no-brainer to me. I’ve seen enough below backup caliber goaltending from Khabibuliln to make a decision.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 11, 2011 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Jonathan Willis seems to think that NK would have a better season next year. Do you think so too? Or you think think season’s stats are a sign of things to come?
That said, I hope they do buy him out
without honor, victory is hollow
Yeah, if I was setting a line for his save percentage next year, it would probably be something like .900, which is a pretty big improvement on this year, and yet still pretty awful.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 11, 2011 5:05 PM MDT up reply actions
In terms of Khabibulin, didn’t Renney just say that he will start as the number 1 tender for the Oil next year, that it is his to lose? "To me, at least, as we wrap this season up, Khabby deserves the opportunity to come out of the gate and nail it down," Renney said. "I do think Dubby should look forward to playing at least as much next year as he did this year. And I don’t mind if there’s a battle for starts. That’s a healthy situation." I know that there is no point in saying he’s washed up and useless, but this seemed to be a little harsh on DD.
“This is the first year of the rebuild.”
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 11, 2011 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Starting Khabi
The only way that starting Khabi over Dubie all year makes sense, barring Oilers institutional insanity, is that they want him to know that if he doesn’t retire, they are going to keep making him start 50 games a year.
If I was broken, and already a multi-millionaire, and someone said I was going to have to backstop the Oilers all year, maybe I’d consider retirement.
by Edible Oil Product on Apr 10, 2011 7:46 PM MDT reply actions
But it’s not like he gets any grief if he plays like shit, all he has to do is go out and play hockey.
For fuck sakes the guy can do no wrong. He’ll give up 3 shitty goals in a 5-1 loss and still get the play of the game on Sportsnet.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
If he retires we’re still on the hook for that fucking cap hit because this is the worst contract in National Hockey League history.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 11, 2011 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions
regulars at C&B disagree with you….
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/4/5/2092214/the-not-so-sweet-sixteen-champion-rick-dipietro
without honor, victory is hollow
YOU ARE WRONG. (That being the plural “you”.)
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 11, 2011 3:38 PM MDT up reply actions
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