(4) Vincent Lecavalier v. (5) Brian Campbell
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 10:38 AM MDT
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PrintRick DiPietro crushed Nikolai Khabibulin yesterday in the quarterfinals, a truly impressive feat given how much Khabibulin is hated by most of our readers. His next opponent will be either overpaid forward, Vincent Lecavalier, or overpaid defenseman Brian Campbell. Lecavlier cruised to victory in the opening round, defeating Danny Briere 267-81; Campbell's opening round was much closer, but he still delivered a convincing 319-167 victory over Scott Gomez.
Vincent Lecavalier
Here's the bottom line. Does Vincent Lecavalier belong on a list of the ten best players in the game today? How about top twenty? Thirty? I don't think that he is. And yet the Tampa Bay Lightning are going to pay this player ten million dollars over the next five years beyond this one. The Lightning aren't a cap team, so to me, the salary figure is the one to look at, which makes the deal less of a risk long term (those last two years aren't a big deal), but makes the short-term pain rather extreme. This season, Lecavalier was the highest paid player in the league (tied with Roberto Luongo). Among players signed for next year, Lecavlier makes $1M more than the man in second (Sidney Crosby). From 2012-13 to 2015-16, he's second only to Ilya Kovalchuk, who's playing for a team that spends to the cap. Given that Lecavalier is turning thirty-one this April, it's likely that his performance over these next several years is only going to get worse, and with a no-movement clause attached to his contract, the Lightning are stuck with him.
Brian Campbell
The two big concerns with Brian Campbell are opportunity and injury. Shoulder, knee, and foot injuries over the last two seasons don't provide a lot of confidence that Campbell's body will hold up all that well over the next five seasons. In terms of performance, Campbell is playing in a sheltered role with the Blackhawks this year, and the results are fine, but not fantastic, which is what you'd expect from a guy pulling down $7M+ per year. He has the easiest end-zone start ratio among Blackhawk defenders (61.1% of his starts are in the offensive zone), and we all know that he's not taking on the toughs, and yet his Corsi number is worse than that of Duncan Keith and only marginally better than Brent Seabrook. On the PP, he ranks third in TOI per game behind the two aforementioned defenders, which limits his offensive effectiveness further. Brian Campbell is Chicago's third-best defenseman, and his ice time is doled out accordingly, and that means he'll never be able to come close to providing value for his ticket with the Blackhawks. His no-trade clause allows him to list eight teams that he'd accept a trade to, and presumably he'd pick good ones. Unfortunately for the Blackhawks, it's difficult to imagine a good team wanting to pick up that contract.
The Bracket
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I think Vinny L’s contract could move because of its structure. I don’t think Campbell’s deal will move. So I voted for Campbell.
When do you think it would get moved? Vinny’s cap hit is higher than Campbell’s for the duration and the only time the salary is lower is when Campbell’s deal is expired.
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Vinny’s deal could maybe be moved but probably not until he’s about 38 years old. At that point I can really only see a team trying to save some money while reaching the floor being interested, and he won’t waive his NTC to get there.
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When do you think it would get moved?
I’m not sure – the NMC makes speculating about moving it difficult. Would the Rangers consider it if they strike out on Richards this offseason – Redden + Anisimov for Lecavalier + picks? Would Montreal move Gomez for Lecavalier + picks in the future, and would Vinny. L want to go there? Its structure still makes it intriguing to a team that’s willing to pony up cash and needs to dump off an awful contract.
Would the Rangers consider it if they strike out on Richards this offseason – Redden + Anisimov for Lecavalier + picks?
Good god I hope not.
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by George E. Ays on Mar 30, 2011 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
What about the structure of his deal is attractive to you? Do you think it’s likely that Lecavalier will provide value at his cap hit? I’m struggling to see what kind of contract a team would feel good about moving for Lecavalier. Redden, for instance, at least gives the Rangers some flexibility since they can send him to the AHL, something that they wouldn’t be able to do with Vinny.
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Redden, for instance, at least gives the Rangers some flexibility since they can send him to the AHL, something that they wouldn’t be able to do with Vinny.
Redden’s deal really doesn’t provide them with much flexibility because it eats up their entire summer cap and provides zero value.
Maybe Anisimov wouldn’t be included in the deal, but teams are center-obsessed, and plus there’s the whole Tortorella-Lecavalier thing. Maybe it would be something like Wolski-Redden for Lecavalier+1st.
Redden’s deal only provides them no value because they’re burying him in the minors. I’m convinced that Redden is a good enough player to be in the NHL if his contract could be renegotiated. If his contract was for $2M would he really be in the AHL? I doubt it. So then I look at Lecavalier and I’ve got to wonder if his situation is all that different in terms of his contribution vs. his cap hit. Lecavalier’s certainly not worth $7.7M. Is he worth $5M? Will he be worth $5M in three years? If he’s not, the Rangers can’t get out from under that by burying him like they’ve done with Redden. To me, that’s a siginficant difference in flexibility. It’s the difference between your summer cap being screwed and your in-season cap being screwed, and the latter is a lot more important!
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
NMC = cant be buried in the minors if you don’t want to be
There is no reason for any team to trade for Vinny, unless it’s the Islanders sending DiPietro the other way.
For perspective, Mike Komisarek has a brutal contract (should have been in this tournament instead of Phaneuf) and it will be over 5 YEARS before Vinny’s!!!
Campbell is the 3rd best dman on his team, Lecavalier is the 3rd best forward on his. Neither one is particularly useful in their own zone. We’ve seen the damage done by Campbell’s contract already, but because he doesn’t play for a cap team it’s much tougher to assess what impact Lecavalier’s contract has on Tampa’s roster construction.
It’s a tough call, but I think I’m going to give it to Lecavalier for the extra years. The real dollars don’t even start declining until after Campbell’s deal expires.
Long Term contracts
I really feel that a lot of teams have this whole long term contract thing all wrong instead of signing older players to long contracts sign rookies such as Hall and Eberle to 8-10 years they make more NOW and less then but you can have a superstar for a bargain cap hit. They will go for it because of the security and it will be fun to have the bucks now. The Oilers Win because they keep the young strong core of players past a future of H.O.P.E.fully winning a Stanley.
by Sheldon Oilers Fan for Life on Mar 30, 2011 12:20 PM MDT reply actions
Yeah, I agree with you here, and there have been a couple of deals like this. Mike Richards is the best example that jumps to mind.
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions
A general question regarding contracts and recalling players.
When a teams recall a player from AHL and they clear waivers, other team have the option of claiming that players off waivers and are responsible for 1/2 of his cap?/salary (not sure which one) and the other 1/2 comes from the originating team. The question is how long must the originating team pay their portion of 1/2 the salary or cap for a player with 10 years remaining on his contract?
And what is the reason for adding this stipulation when recalling players?
The original team pays half the salary and takes half the cap hit for the duration of the contract. As for the “why” question, I’m not sure what the thinking was in creating that rule. The fact that it’s mandatory is a disservice to quite a few players.
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Wow, tough one here. Both staggeringly bad contracts. Each one of those columns is just horrible.
Question: I can’t remember the CBA rules on this off hand;
if Vinny retires in, say, 5 years: what happens to his cap hit? Is it off the books? I’m not saying that this would be likely (who would leave ~$15m on the table?), just that as a GM, I might think I could get some perks from TBL in return for taking his contract (picks and prospects), then bury him in the AHL and hope he walks away.
Just spit-balling, still haven’t voted yet.
If Lecavalier retires, the money and cap hit are both gone.
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by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2011 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions
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