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Taylor Hall Can Sure Draw A Penalty

"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."

--Rudyard Kipling, "IF"

One of the most famous moment's of Taylor Hall's young career after his first NHL goal and his first career hat trick was a moment late in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes on November 8th.  Taylor Hall, frustrated with his play and furious at the officiating, slammed his stick against the boards in disgust.  Tom Renney chose to bench the young winger in response to his outburst.  The reaction in the media was mostly positive - the passion and intensity of youth sometimes means a player is going react with raw and honest emotion. 

The outburst was a one-time thing as Hall demonstrated he could keep his head, and cause others to lose theirs.

Star-divide

In 65 games, Taylor Hall averaged 15.07 minutes of even strength time on ice.  Hall drew 38 penalties and took 9.  His penalties drawn per 60 minutes of ice time of 2.3 ranks second in the league this season and 20th in the NHL since 2007.  Over the last four seasons a player has averaged 2 penalties drawn per sixty minutes 54 times.  His penalties drawn / penalties taken ratio differential of 1.7 ranks 14th in the NHL since 2007.  As Desjardins has shown - drawing penalties is a special talent and Dustin Brown and Patrick Kaleta are especially adept at doing so.  On a team with an average power play, a penalty drawn is worth .2 goals, so Hall's raw differential of 27 should be worth about 5.4 goals, or nearly a full win.  It's only his first season and only 65 games, but if Hall has the capability of drawing penalties at a ratio similar to his 2010-2011 ratio, he's going to be worth more to the Oilers than previously assumed.

Below is a list of all players over the last four years to draw two or more penalties per 60 minutes, sorted by penalties differential.

 

NAME YEAR TEAM TAKEN DRAWN PTAKE/60 PDRAW/60 PDIFF/60
Patrick Kaleta 2008-2009 BUF 10 35 1.4 4.9 3.5
Patrick Kaleta 2009-2010 BUF 8 35 0.9 4.1 3.2
Dustin Brown 2008-2009 L.A 15 63 0.8 3.5 2.7
Sidney Crosby 2007-2008 PIT 11 43 0.9 3.4 2.5
Dustin Brown 2009-2010 L.A 10 49 0.5 2.6 2.1
Vladimir Zharkov 2009-2010 N.J 1 15 0.1 2.2 2.1
Ryan Jones 2009-2010 EDM 10 25 1.3 3.4 2.1
Erik Cole 2007-2008 CAR 10 43 0.6 2.6 2
Cal Clutterbuck 2008-2009 MIN 14 42 0.9 2.8 1.9
Daniel Carcillo 2009-2010 PHI 17 42 1.2 3 1.8
Dustin Brown 2007-2008 L.A 11 44 0.6 2.4 1.8
Jeff Skinner 2010-2011 CAR 12 38 0.8 2.5 1.7
Ryan Jones 2008-2009 NSH 8 21 1.1 2.8 1.7
Taylor Hall 2010-2011 EDM 9 38 0.6 2.3 1.7
David Perron 2008-2009 STL 16 39 1.1 2.7 1.6
Ryan Callahan 2007-2008 NYR 7 22 0.7 2.3 1.6
Zach Parise 2009-2010 N.J 11 41 0.5 2 1.5
Jodrin Tootoo 2009-2010 NSH 5 18 0.5 2 1.5
Tom Wandell 2009-2010 DAL 7 21 0.7 2.1 1.4
Eric Staal 2007-2008 CAR 15 43 0.7 2.1 1.4
Erik Cole 2008-2009 CAR 16 40 0.9 2.3 1.4
Maxim Lapierre 2008-2009 MTL 10 31 0.6 2 1.4
Mike Richards 2007-2008 PHI 14 34 0.9 2.2 1.3
Alex Burrows 2007-2008 VAN 19 39 1.2 2.5 1.3
Petr Prucha 2007-2008 NYR 7 21 0.7 2 1.3
Maxim Afinogenov 2008-2009 BUF 8 18 1 2.3 1.3
Sean Avery 2007-2008 NYR 16 31 1.3 2.5 1.2
Alex Tanguay 2008-2009 MTL 11 22 1.1 2.3 1.2
Tuomo Ruutu 2009-2010 CAR 12 24 1 2.1 1.1
Evgeni Malkin 2008-2009 PIT 21 43 1 2.1 1.1
Sean Avery 2008-2009 NYR 15 24 1.7 2.7 1
Evander Kane 2009-2010 ATL 21 35 1.6 2.6 1
Ryan Kesler 2007-2008 VAN 19 36 1.1 2.1 1
Nick Foligno 2008-2009 OTT 15 30 1 2 1
Alex Kovalev 2007-2008 MTL 23 39 1.3 2.2 0.9
David Perron 2007-2008 STL 13 23 1.2 2.1 0.9
Derek Dorsett 2008-2009 CBJ 12 19 1.6 2.5 0.9
Steve Ott 2008-2009 DAL 20 32 1.4 2.2 0.8
Chad Larose 2007-2008 CAR 15 24 1.3 2.1 0.8
Jordin Tootoo 2010-2011 NSH 10 17 1.2 2 0.8
Darroll Powe 2009-2010 PHI 13 22 1.2 2 0.8
Evgeni Malkin 2007-2008 PIT 24 40 1.2 2 0.8
Chris Neil 2008-2009 OTT 14 21 1.4 2.1 0.7
Steve Ott 2007-2008 DAL 18 29 1.3 2 0.7
Patrick Kaleta 2010-2011 BUF 12 17 1.6 2.2 0.6
Scottie Upshall 2007-2008 PHI 18 25 1.6 2.2 0.6
Jordin Tootoo 2007-2008 NSH 14 20 1.4 2 0.6
Rick Nash 2007-2008 CBJ 25 35 1.4 2 0.6
Steve Downie 2009-2010 T.B 28 34 1.8 2.2 0.4
Jordin Tootoo 2008-2009 NSH 24 30 1.8 2.2 0.4
Tomas Holmstrom 2007-2008 DET 22 25 1.7 2 0.3
Derek Dorsett 2009-2010 CBJ 22 21 2.6 2.5 -0.1
Daniel Carcillo 2007-2008 PHX 32 22 3.1 2.1 -1

*All data courtesy of the excellent Behindthenet.ca

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Jones

Good Post Derek. I felt he was strong in this area but I enderestimated how strong Hall is.
Couldn’t help but notice Jones made the list as well a few years back. Do you have the data for him?
  I was also wondering if PDRAW/60 is similar to shooting percentage. Do players tend to revert to the mean over time? I did see several players who only appeared on this list once.

by Peacecountry on Mar 20, 2011 10:04 PM MDT reply actions  

Ryan Jones 2009-2010 EDM 10 25 1.3 3.4 2.1

So since Jones made the list with his 2 prior season, do you have his stats this year? Just curious…

Damn this team needs someone to coach the power play. :(

by stratedge on Mar 20, 2011 11:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

He’s below average this year, drawing 0.7 penalties per sixty minutes and taking 0.8 penalties per sixty minutes.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 21, 2011 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

He’s paying the price of moving to the Oilers. There’s no more “getting the calls” now. :|

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 23, 2011 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

It would be similar in that players will have a tendency to regress to their personal mean, but that won’t necessarily be league average.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 21, 2011 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

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