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Numbers That May Only Interest Me: Khabibulin, Dubnyk and Deslauriers

Febuary_2011_hockey_113_medium

Photo by Lisa McRitchie, all rights reserved.

One of the fun things about exploring Dennis King's scoring chance data is finding things that are inexplicable, like J.F. Jacques being a plus away from Ryan Jones.  I've also come to enjoy finding the curious, like the Oilers scoring chances against in front of different goaltenders.

TCF = Total even strength chances for on, TCA = Total even strength chances against on, % = percentage of even strength scoring chances for while on the ice, CF/60 = even strength chances for on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, CA/60 = even strength chances against on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, DIFF/60 = even strength scoring chance difference per 60 minutes of even strength playing time.

First up, the scoring chances for and against with the 2009-2010 goaltending crew.  The Oilers gave up four more chances per 60 minutes in front of Nikolai Khabibulin compared to Devan Dubnyk and almost five more chances per 60 minutes compared to Jeff Deslauriers.

Player  TCF TCA % CF/60 CA/60 DIFF/60
Jeff Deslauriers 491 595 0.452 13.531 16.397 -2.866
Devan Dubnyk 195 239 0.449 14.072 17.247 -3.175
Average 900 1124 0.445 14.108 17.620 -3.511
Nikolai Khabibulin 214 290 0.425 15.681 21.250 -5.569

 

Next up, the scoring chances for and against thus far with the 2010-2011 goaltending crew.  The Oilers have given up three more chances per 60 minutes in front of Nikolai Khabibulin compared to Devan Dubnyk.

Player  TCF TCA % CF/60 CA/60 DIFF/60
Martin Gerber 36 37 0.493 15.316 15.741 -0.425
Devan Dubnyk 350 383 0.477 15.535 17.000 -1.465
Average 839 1010 0.454 15.474 18.628 -3.154
Nikolai Khabibulin 453 590 0.434 15.440 20.109 -4.669

 

The two year totals are listed below.

Player  TCF TCA % CF/60 CA/60 DIFF/60
Martin Gerber 36 37 0.493 15.316 15.741 -0.425
Devan Dubnyk 545 622 0.467 14.978 17.094 -2.116
Jeff Deslauriers 491 595 0.452 13.531 16.397 -2.866
Average 1739 2134 0.449 14.736 18.083 -3.347
Nikolai Khabibulin 667 880 0.431 15.516 20.471 -4.955

 

During both seasons, Khabibulin has played in front of a mostly-healthy Oilers team before going on injured reserve.  During both seasons, Dubnyk and Deslauriers have played in front of a mostly-injured Oilers team who have sent a large number of rookies and AHL players out in front of Dubnyk and Deslauriers.  What explanations can we explore to determine why the Oilers are giving up far more chances in front of Khabibulin compared to anyone else who plays in goal for them?

I have a hunch, but I won't spoil the discussion with it.

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