Oilers Scoring Chances Update

"Okay, fine. I'll carry you too."

Tom Gilbert still takes fire from some corners of the Oilers fan base.  As I wrote in December:

Even though no forward on the team has a .500 or better scoring chance percentage without Gilbert, it's Gilbert that has taken the blame, not the other defenders.  Even though Gilbert's only bad stretch of the season came when paired with Jason Strudwick, the narrative says that Gilbert's miscues have been behind the terrible penalty kill and weak team defense.  Message boards, blogs, twitter and even our game threads have notes about each one of Gilbert's supposed mishaps, and each one of those supposed mishaps is more evidence of Gilbert's woeful play.

The narrative remains and the fans who believe in that narrative remain relentless.  Gilbert's amazing season, however, continues.  He's not above water, but considering the minutes he's played and the partners he's carried, Gilbert's scoring chance differential per fifteen minutes of -0.364 is outstanding.

For those of you new to the concept of a scoring chance, or tracking scoring chances, a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

Seven teams are currently being tracked, the Oilers by Dennis King at MC79hockey.com, the Flames by Kent Wilson at Flames Nation, the Rangers by George Ays at Blueshirt Banter, the Panthers by Derek Zona at Litter Box Cats, the Capitals by Neil Greenberg at Russian Machine Never Breaks, the Canadiens by Olivier at En attendant les Nordiques, and the Leafs at Under the Helmet of Slava Duris.

I've sorted the chances by forwards and defenseman.  TSC = total scoring chances, TSCA = total scoring chances against, CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time, CA/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time, SCDIFF = scoring chances difference, DIFF/15 = scoring chances difference per 15 minutes of ice time.  The table is sorted by DIFF/15.  The tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row.

Player  TSCF TSCA CH% CF/15 CA/15 DIFF/15
Shawn Horcoff 191 175 0.522 4.580 4.197 0.384
Taylor Hall 340 316 0.518 5.206 4.839 0.368
Jordan Eberle 259 255 0.504 4.999 4.922 0.077
Dustin Penner 247 248 0.499 4.273 4.290 -0.017
Ales Hemsky 189 195 0.492 4.384 4.523 -0.139
J.F. Jacques 61 69 0.469 3.277 3.707 -0.430
Liam Reddox 72 85 0.459 3.462 4.087 -0.625
Sam Gagner 264 312 0.458 4.193 4.955 -0.762
Andrew Cogliano 232 280 0.453 3.913 4.722 -0.809
Zack Stortini 45 59 0.433 3.001 3.934 -0.933
Magnus Paajarvi 199 269 0.425 3.492 4.721 -1.229
Colin Fraser 79 122 0.393 2.665 4.115 -1.450
Gilbert Brule 95 141 0.403 3.096 4.595 -1.499
Linus Omark 84 132 0.389 2.864 4.501 -1.637
Ryan Jones 120 217 0.356 2.642 4.777 -2.135

 

  • Taylor Hall is outstanding by this metric.  Playing with good teammates against secondary competition, he's showing he can beat those minutes soundly.
  • Ryan Jones...well, let's just say he should've taken whatever contract the Oilers offered him.

Player  TSC TSCA CH% CF/15 CA/15 DIFF/15
Jeff Petry 106 84 0.558 4.620 3.661 0.959
Tom Gilbert 321 350 0.478 4.026 4.389 -0.364
Ladislav Smid 281 311 0.475 4.098 4.536 -0.438
Ryan Whitney 168 193 0.465 4.150 4.767 -0.618
Jason Strudwick 109 131 0.454 3.882 4.665 -0.783
Kurtis Foster 210 261 0.446 3.673 4.565 -0.892
Jim Vandermeer 177 236 0.429 3.742 4.990 -1.247
Theo Peckham 233 321 0.421 3.641 5.016 -1.375

 

  • The story goes that Jeff Petry "lost his confidence".  If that's the case, what did the rest of the defensive corps lose?

Player  TSC TSCA CH% CF/15 CA/15 DIFF/15
Alex Giroux 9 9 0.500 3.823 3.823 0.000
Taylor Chorney 36 39 0.480 4.060 4.398 -0.338
Alex Plante 9 12 0.429 3.251 4.335 -1.084
Shawn Belle 13 21 0.382 2.658 4.294 -1.636
Richard Petiot 6 10 0.375 3.763 6.271 -2.508
Steve MacIntyre 12 28 0.300 2.159 5.037 -2.878
Ryan O`Marra 12 29 0.293 2.183 5.277 -3.093

 

  • In a very limited sample size, Taylor Chorney didn't look so bad.
  • Ryan O`Marra, on the other hand...
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