Can The Nashville Predators Catch The Detroit Red Wings?

Editor's note:  Thanks to an errant ticket schedule, the numbers provided below for the Red Wings were initially incorrect.  They've been updated to reflect the correct numbers.

Looking for futures bet with a decent return?  Thinking the nice price on the Predators to win the Central Division are worth a couple of bucks?  Though the mainstream folks have labeled the Predators as a defensive team, Pekka Rinne has been the true difference maker for these Predators.  And while the Predators will undoubtedly make a move or two to add offense at the trade deadline, the rest of the Western Conference contenders will move to patch holes as well.  Can this supposedly defensively-minded team chase down the big bad Wings?

Nashville is 16th in the league in shot prevention, giving up 30.3 shots per game.  They are 23rd in the league in shot differential at -1.8 shots per game.  Rinne has made up the difference as Nashville has posted a .924 save percentage, third-best in the league, largely drive by Rinne's individual performance.  Rinne has appeared in 36 games, posting a .932 even strength save percentage and an absurd .927 short-handed save percentage, far and away the best in the league for a regular goaltender.  There's not much to the narrative that this is a "lockdown" team or a superior defensive team.  With league-average goaltender on the season, the Predators would have given up 16 more goals, pulling their goal differential down to even and knocking at least five points from the win column.

So if the Predators aren't a true defensive team, but are being carried by their goaltender, how can they win the Central Division?

It's all about home cooking.

Over their final 29 games, the Predators play 19 games at home and only ten on the road.


GP Pts GR Home Away
Nashville 53 63 29 19 10
Detroit 52 68 30 15 15

 

Contrast that with the Red Wings.  The Wings must finish the season with 15 road games and only 15 home games.

Nashville's schedule is as follows:

Date 
Opponent 
Mon, Feb 7  vs Edmonton Oilers 
Wed, Feb 9  @ Detroit Red Wings 
Sat, Feb 12  vs Colorado Avalanche
Tue, Feb 15  vs San Jose Sharks 
Thu, Feb 17  vs Vancouver Canucks
Sat, Feb 19  vs Phoenix Coyotes 
Tue, Feb 22  @ Columbus Blue Jackets 
Thu, Feb 24  vs Chicago Blackhawks 
Sat, Feb 26  @ Dallas Stars 
Sun, Feb 27  vs Columbus Blue Jackets 
Tue, Mar 1  @ Edmonton Oilers 
Thu, Mar 3  @ Vancouver Canucks 
Sun, Mar 6  @ Calgary Flames 
Tue, Mar 8  @ San Jose Sharks 
Thu, Mar 10  vs Minnesota Wild 
Sat, Mar 12  vs Colorado Avalanche
Tue, Mar 15  vs Los Angeles Kings 
Thu, Mar 17  vs Boston Bruins 
Sat, Mar 19  vs Detroit Red Wings 
Sun, Mar 20  @ Buffalo Sabres 
Tue, Mar 22  vs Edmonton Oilers 
Thu, Mar 24  vs Anaheim Ducks 
Sat, Mar 26  vs Dallas Stars 
Tue, Mar 29  vs Vancouver Canucks
Thu, Mar 31  @ Colorado Avalanche 
Sat, Apr 2  vs Detroit Red Wings 
Tue, Apr 5  vs Atlanta Thrashers 
Fri, Apr 8  vs Columbus Blue Jackets 
Sat, Apr 9  @ St. Louis Blues 

 

There is a four game road-trip, but it's offset by four homestands of three games, two four-game homestands and a length five-game homestand.

The Predators play 12 of final 15 at home, including two against the Red Wings.

All of this may be moot, however.  Even though Nashville has averaged 1.364 points per game at home and only 1.065 on the road, the machine-like Red Wings have averaged 1.308 points per game at home and 1.357 on the road.  Should those rates hold, the Predators will rack up 36 points to close the season with 99 points and the Red Wings will tally 40 points on their way to a 108 point season.  But the Red Wings will have to deal with much more travel during this stretch - they've got a three-game homestand and a six-game road trip, but most of the other 21 games are bouncing from city to city.  If the travel begins to wear on the Red Wings and they falter - the homebody Predators have a fighting chance to catch them.

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