The Donut Trade
by Copper and Blue Staff on Feb 28, 2011 2:15 PM MST
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PrintWith Ales Hemsky long-rumored to be headed to Los Angeles, it comes as something of a surprise to see Dustin Penner headed to the Kings. In return, the Kings will ship highly-regarded prospect Colten Teubert and their first round pick in 2011 as well as a either a second or third round pick in 2012 (depending on the Kings' playoff performance) to Edmonton. Thanks in part to Derek's Amicus Brief series from the beginning of last season and to Penner's solid play over the last several years, we know that Dustin Penner is a great player. But what about the assets Edmonton has coming back? We'll take a look after the jump.
The biggest asset coming to the Oilers is prospect Colten Teubert who was drafted 13th overall by the Kings in 2008, after being ranked 13th overall by Bob McKenzie just before the draft. Red Line Report, meanwhile, had Teubert as the sixth best defender in the draft just behind Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Luke Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo, and Tyler Myers, and just ahead of Tyler Cuma, Roman Josi, Luca Sbisa, and Brandon Burlon. That looks like an awfully big drop in quality and the line seems to be right beside Teubert. The question is, which side does he fall on? Here's what Red Line had to say before the draft:
After Myers, there's a significant drop down to the next tier of defenders.
Shit.
Well, that doesn't necessarily mean Teubert is a bad pick-up. He has 10 points in 39 games for the Kings' AHL affiliate, the Manchester Monarchs, this season and his +7 rating is good enough for fifth on the club behind Vyacheslav Voynov, Jake Muzzin, Thomas Hickey, and Andrew Campbell. We know that last season Teubert faced the toughest minutes while in Regina thanks to Scott Reynolds' Qualcomp study on the Regina Pats. He did acquit himself quite well on a very bad team, so at least that's encouraging. Plus, as a former teammate of Jordan Eberle, we know that he must be good in the room, a quality highly valued by the Oilers' brass.
So that's Colten Teubert, a pretty good prospect who might one day turn into a shut-down defender in the NHL, but who might also top out as a third pairing bruiser. Not only is he not the Kings' top prospect, he's not even their top defensive prospect, and might not have been in their top three. So yeah, don't get your hopes up.
As for the draft picks... well, they're not great. They're good, but not great. The 2011 pick is very likely going to come in the 14th to 25th range, which Scott has as a 27.8% chance of becoming a good player. The conditional pick is obviously even lower than that, whether it ends up as a second rounder or a third rounder.
And that's why this is the donut trade. It's the man who loves donuts for a return with no centerpiece. Dean Lombardi has done a fantastic job here. He's moved three peripheral assets for an impact player, and that's always a good deal. Steve Tambellini? Well, he's done the opposite. Penner was young enough that he could have been part of the solution here, but instead he was sent packing. Will the Oilers get a player that can impact a game like Penner out of their three new prizes. Probably not.
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Honestly, I’m really sad about this. Penned is a great player, the kind of player the oilers needed in the long term. He will be missed.
by Stephen Sheps on Feb 28, 2011 12:35 PM MST via mobile reply actions
It is a good trade, Teubert is a really good defensive prospect, while it gives the magnificent bastard another high pick to play with.
P.S.
Where is Teubert playing right now? is he in Junior or Pro?
Manchester in the AHL. However, I do not think this is a particularly good trade short or long term. Teubert is the last of the LA defensive prospects I was hoping for (Forbort would have been a much better fit I think). The only saving grace is that Teubert has a bit of seasoning in the AHL and could help the Barons in their playoff push and challenge for a roster spot next year. The other good thing is in his relationship with Jordan Eberle from their time together on the Pats. On the downside, he’s tall but not big, isn’t extremely mobile and kind of replicates the skill set of Alex Plante, who was drafted in a similar slot in his draft year. Tambo could have done better, and not pulling the trigger on this deal would have been just that
by Stephen Sheps on Feb 28, 2011 1:45 PM MST up reply actions
Well, wherever he is, I have it on good authority that he’s a really good defensive prospect. Wherever he is.
by sarcasticidealist on Mar 1, 2011 8:35 AM MST up reply actions
So I’m confused. You make a blanket statement that he is a very good prospect and then you don’t even know what league he is currently in? Doesn’t lend much to your credibility or opinion.
by Jeremywilhelm on Feb 28, 2011 8:45 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Don’t buy Oilers tickets, don’t buy Oilers merchandise, don’t get NHL GameCentre and watch Oilers game on it. Don’t watch Sportsnet West; stream all your Oiler games illegally. If they start building a downtown arena, burn it to the fucking foundations. If this team goes bankrupt, hopefully Katz will sell and we’ll get somebody in charge who knows what he’s doing.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 28, 2011 12:42 PM MST reply actions 3 recs
Soooooo, what did you think of the trade,Ben?
Oilers got not enough considering their position of trading strength.
Steve Tambellini's motto - Nemo me impune lacessit
by Bar Qu on Feb 28, 2011 12:53 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Steve Tambellini should be arrested for stealing the last three years of our lives.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 28, 2011 1:00 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks Ben.
Your rage saves me from having to verbalize my feelings to anyone.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Feb 28, 2011 2:03 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Tell you what though
I have already been an Oilers fan because of their prospects, many of whom I became addicted to while watching them in the CHL. Adding Teubert to the mix is the frosting on my interest cake (sorry). I agree that Tambellini did not get the best of the d prospects (I would rank them Voynov, Forbort, Muzzin, Hickey, Deslauriers, Martinez, Teubert, Gravel), but he is a good combination of size, meanness and experience. In fact, if you want big and mean, he’s the best combination of those two qualities. Muzzin is more NHL ready, and maybe as mean, but smaller. Forbort is bigger, not as mean, and much farther off. I assume that Tambellini wanted big and mean. He’s also a leader, with international experience. This trade works for me short term, but could suck for the Kings long term. Time will tell.
Wait till this year.
If you feel like you’ve given up your seventh best defense prospect, he’d need to overachieve an awful lot for it to suck long term. I think Lombardi did really well here.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 28, 2011 9:27 PM MST up reply actions
Well, when you put it that way...
My feeling is, it’s more complicated than (not that you’re saying this) one team “won” the trade and one team “lost.” I agree with you that Lombardi did well on this deal, and I also think that Tambellini looks like he got, as they say, hosed. But that’s a perception that may well change, and that depends entirely on where (and how good) Penner are n three years.
It’s true that, numerically, I would put Teubert around 7th on the Kings depth chart for defensemen. That in and of itself makes it seem like I’m suggesting Teubert is not good, or that Tambellini is an idiot. The thing is, the Kings have an embarrassment of riches on the blueline (on the depth chart, I mean). And Teubert has a pretty huge upside, I think.
Wait till this year.
Firstly, I agree that it’s totally possible to have a trade that both teams win because teams have different needs at different times. I don’t, however, think this is an example of that, but that’s mostly because I don’t think Teubert is a great prospect. (incidentally, would you be willing to be more specific about what you mean by “huge upside”?) He’s a good prospect who joins a group of good defense prospects (Petry, Plante, Marincin), which increases the odds that Edmonton ends up with one very good defender. Still, when you’re trading a top line player on a reasonable deal, you need to get at least one great asset, and the Oilers didn’t get that.
I don’t really see how this deal is at all likely to suck for the Kings if we measure value over the next ten years. Even if Teubert turns out to be pretty good, he’d need to pass a bunch of the guys you have ranked ahead of him for it to hurt the Kings at all. The pick might work out, but it’s more likely not to be a significant contributor. It’s of course possible that the Oilers end up getting good value when we look back on it, but that doesn’t make Lombardi’s bet now a bad one.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2011 4:30 PM MST up reply actions
He did acquit himself quite well on a very bad team
So he’ll know what to do.
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by PPP on Feb 28, 2011 1:48 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
In all of the interviews and pressers Penner has done, he spoke very honestly and candidly about his time in Edmonton and he seems genuinely a bit upset about the deal. Penner could have been a major part of the leadership group moving forward and with enough versatility in his game to play all three forward positions if and when necessary. This is a huge step back for the team and that the one live asset coming back isn’t even in the top 3 best prospects in the kings system is really not a good thing. Addition by subtraction? More like just plain subtraction for the sake of making a splash to appease the mob.
I wish Penner nothing but luck in the future and can’t wait to see what he can do playing with Stoll Smyth and Greene. Go kings?
Join tonight’s GDT! Go Kings Go!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 28, 2011 1:53 PM MST up reply actions
The Kings currently have the two best Oilers’ left wings since the dynasty and the Oilers have:
Robert Nilsson, Ryan O’Marra, Colten Teubert, two first-round picks and a third-round pick.
The Kings are a cup contender. The Oilers are still selling hope.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Feb 28, 2011 1:58 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
Correction:
They have the privilege of paying Nilsson not to be here, Ryan O’Marra, Colten Teubert, two first round picks and a third round pick.
by RiversQ on Feb 28, 2011 3:42 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Returns
Smyth: Ryan O’Marra, Robert Nilsson, 1st Round pick (3 first rounders, by Terry Jones’ logic)
Penner: Teubert, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick
The Oilers got significantly less for Penner compared to Smyth.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
so, should I start drafting a sequel to that pessimism piece?
by Stephen Sheps on Feb 28, 2011 2:08 PM MST up reply actions
well at that time everyone was overpaying like hell!!
Rebuild is a convenient excuse for GMs who dont wish to do their jobs
It’s an okay trade if Teubert is actually a player, unlike O’Marra or Nilsson. I’d evaluate this more from the perspective of… did they target the right prospect? We shall see.
I don’t question the return so much as the decision to ship out Penner at all.
by David Supina on Feb 28, 2011 3:49 PM MST up reply actions
Nilsson was more of a player than Teubert is likely to be.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 28, 2011 4:42 PM MST up reply actions
Teubert is one of those guys that was always able to dominate his opponents physically all his life and now he’s learning that it doesn’t really work that well at the professional level. He was mostly bottom pairing on the Monarchs this season, although that was mostly because he was the newest addition to the squad. I’d say he needs 2 years, maybe, and then he’ll be good to go. We all kind of assumed he was going to replace Matt Greene eventually, so if you think about it he’ll be replacing Greene for you now.
the problem with that logic is that you got the good, experienced, playoff seasoned, broken-in version of Matt Greene, while we get the young, raw, undisciplined potential “Matt Greene.” Potential doesn’t keep pucks out of the net and the player out of the penalty box. 2 years is a long time to wait. We’ve been waiting 3 years now for Alex Plante who has a similar draft pedigree and nearly identical size and skill-set and he doesn’t seem ready for the show at all. For a team that’s already last, this just helps to ensure last place for a lot longer.
Only the draft picks do any potential good, and that’s only if they are used as trade bait with other picks and prospects to move up to a second top-10 pick…And there’s no way Tambo is that smart.
by Stephen Sheps on Feb 28, 2011 2:29 PM MST up reply actions
And there’s no way Tambo is that smart.
100% correct
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
thanks for trying…
Now I have one more reason to hope the Kings do some serious damage this post-season. I am really starting to resent the fact that too many of my favorite players end up in LA black at some point in their careers; Gretz, Kurri, Smyth, Stoll and now Penner. This is starting to become like a broken record… The Rangers were at one point known as Edmonton East and the Kings are certainly on their way to cementing themselves as Edmonton West. It’s as if the Oilers are becoming their other farm team.
by Stephen Sheps on Feb 28, 2011 2:38 PM MST up reply actions
If the Kings weren’t willing to put Forbort or Schenn in the deal, Tambi should have walked away and taken his shot at the draft.
But he didn’t and now we put our faith in the Magnificient Bastard.
And Tambi’s ability to work the FA market.
Why am I only 50% confident in those two elements?
“Stu, I appreciate your suggestion for this small, talented forward who scored 115 points in Sweden, but I found this 6’8” 250-pound defenseman who plays in the WHL and we’ll be taking him instead. He had three goals last year, so I think he has some real potential."
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 28, 2011 2:48 PM MST up reply actions
Are you suggesting that Cameron Abney was actually Steve’s pick and not a Magnificent Bastard Blunder? I’d like to believe that.
Abney and Czerwonka have Tambipoo’s fingerprints all over them. Unfortunately, I do think Kellen Jones is a Stu.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 28, 2011 3:01 PM MST up reply actions
Czerwonka wasn’t a bad pick.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 28, 2011 4:05 PM MST up reply actions
MacGregor talked about the Abney pick and said that WHL scout Bob Brown was the reason for the selection as he pushed hard for him to be up the list so you can’t blame Tambellini. You can blame him for this trade though which only works if you like Teubert and he was probably the last of all of LA’s top prospects/youngsters who I wanted. They have a deep system and there were at least half a dozen other superior players who could have made this trade somewhat palatable.
Smyth vs Penner: no comparison
Smyth is at least twice as valuable as Penner: he can lead a team. We need Smyth more now than ever. Or somebody like him. Somebody who knows how to win, who makes all of the players around him better. Penner never did that with the Oil. He set-up plays, and was somewhat of a physical presence. But to this fan, he rarely seemed to want to take the body or stand in front of the net. Sure, he’d do it some shifts. But not every shift. Cogliano takes the body as much, if not more, than Penner. Penner’s performance with Edmonton spoke self-interest. Not heart. Not dedication. Penner would never come back to play after having his teeth scraped off the ice.
We will miss his size up-front, even if it was “self-serving”.
So, basically, Smyth offered more intangibles?
by sarcasticidealist on Mar 1, 2011 8:34 AM MST up reply actions
Sorry Derek
Seriously, it sucks to watch your favourite player traded for a poor return without any justification.
That sucks all right, been through it too many times. There’s always “some” justification, or at least rationalization, but that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 28, 2011 4:11 PM MST up reply actions
The other difficulty is that we often don’t know the justification. For all we know, Penner’s been begging for a trade for months and has told them he won’t resign. Having actually learned something from the Souray situation, the Oilers made the best trade available before the situation blew up (again).
I should change my moniker to “the eternal optimist/fool”.
Seriously, it sucks to watch your favourite player traded
That happened in 1991.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh sure, but I think this was your favourite player on these post-Smyth Oilers right?
Naturally, if you’re an Oiler fan you’ve watched a lot of players walk, but you usually only have one favourite per decade or so.
Anyway, shitty day. Especially when you realize the Oilers expect this continue until the next Olympics anyway.
by RiversQ on Feb 28, 2011 5:09 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Jason Gregor still dreaming that the pick might be around 17
Rebuild is a convenient excuse for GMs who dont wish to do their jobs
Well obviously the Kings are going to dip in the standings now that they got Penner.
ffs
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 28, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions
Obviously. The Kings, I have it on good authority, have subtracted by adding.
by sarcasticidealist on Mar 1, 2011 8:38 AM MST up reply actions
hm
jlikens has the kings about 8th in the conference in fenwick, 7th in corsi, with the score tied. 8th in fenwick, 5th in corsi with the score close. so…i mean, hoping for ~17th-20th doesn’t seem that far-fetched. but it is probably a best-case scenario. (all that ignores the question of whether even a top-15 pick makes this worth it, which i won’t touch).
by Passive Voice on Feb 28, 2011 4:21 PM MST up reply actions
Free one for Geno's next intro...
The only surprising thing for me about this trade is that given the way Oilers management consistently sh*&s the bed, I would have thought they need more D-Pens, not less.
by Smytty777 on Feb 28, 2011 4:30 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Does Tambellini actually have scouts looking at these players before he makes trades? Teubert is like a mix of all the worst of Peckham and Smid. With little of the upside.
by Jeremywilhelm on Feb 28, 2011 4:52 PM MST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I like that you hope he says he’s good in the room, considering he had his captaincy stripped in Regina and feuded with the coach. It was so bad Lombardi had to have a meeting with him to figure out what the hell was going on, which pretty much never happens between the NHL teams and the junior teams.
So even if he says he’s good in the room, there’s at least some kind of evidence that this isn’t exactly true. :)
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I like that you hope he says he’s good in the room, considering he had his captaincy stripped in Regina and feuded with the coach. It was so bad Lombardi had to have a meeting with him to figure out what the hell was going on, which pretty much never happens between the NHL teams and the junior teams.
Can you link me?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Leader-Post article by Greg Harder in late Feb. 2009. Unfortunately, not online anymore (or I can’t find it). But this HF thread is:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=612515
This is the piece the HF links to regarding healthy scratch and Lombardi coming down:
http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2009/01/eberle-and-jacques-updates.html
Sorry, looks like his A wasn’t stripped at time, but when it happened with Gudbranson, I was reminded of Teubert. By the next year, he was named captain, but it was quite a blowup in late 2009 (post his first WJC) as the Pats were still fighting for a playoff spot.
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quite a blowup in late 2008-2009
Obviously, that’s what I meant.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
At that point, the situation had been brewing for weeks. I think the Harder piece was an opporutnity for Teubert to speak his mind, rather than about the healthy scratch incident and a drop in play and the like.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
I am amazed by the general negativity regarding this trade. I think it’s very typical of Oiler fans, myself included, to react this way because our G.M’s have historically traded away just about every talented player for something or someone. Having first rounders is never a bad thing and if we can parlay the Kings pick into a decent prospect (I am thinking of Eberle on this one) then maybe we come out on top. I am also amazed that no one has mentioned the cap space that is freed up by this deal. I haven’t looked into the UFA pool this year but I think it certainly makes this deal more bearable. As a fan, you never want to see the team you love trade it’s best player (we could argue that all day), it comes with the territory in Edmonton. All I can do now is hang my hat on Stu the Magnificent One and hope that we can pull out some more late round magic.
by thenorthernlight on Mar 1, 2011 6:55 AM MST reply actions
Cap space….I am baffled how anyone could say that with a straight face. I appologize if you’re just puking up the talking heads logic here but seriously? We had a lot of cap space this year. How’d that work for us?
Cap space and Prestige Worldwide’s ability to actually utilize it are the dumbest justifications one could have.
Why does it come with the territory in Edmonton? Wasn’t the lockout supposed to have fixed that?
This trade was not only unnecessary, but it killed any chance of next season being the start of a turnaround because they failed to get anything that will help them in the short term.
At some point the Oilers have to stop trading good players away for darts to throw at the board. If they don’t we’ll be looking at 6 years down the road at guys like Hall and Eberle and trading them for darts because they keep waiting for all the young players to trip and fall into a Stanley Cup.
At somepoint management has to stop waiting for this team to become good and start putting players in place to make them good.
I can understand trading Dustin Penner. Maybe you don’t think you can sign him to the $$ you want after next year and that you think you’ll get more for him this year than next year.
What I don’t understand is trading him for nothing that will help in the immediate future. They pissed away the first year of the rookie ELC’s and you can justifty that if you make up for it in year 2 and 3.
Year 2 isn’t even here and it’s already looking like they’ll piss that away as well.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
And they won’t magically become Cup contenders in Year 3 either so their entire ELCs were pissed away without gaining the massive advantage that they can provide.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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by PPP on Mar 2, 2011 9:16 AM MST up reply actions
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