Dustin Penner To The Kings - The Trade Rumor That Won't Die
by Derek Zona on Feb 2, 2011 12:00 PM MST
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Like the beat of the old man's heart under the floorboards in Poe's "The Tell-Tale Heart", the repetition of the Dustin Penner to the Los Angeles Kings rumors are ever-present, growing and maddening. A quick search shows just how pervasive this rumor has become. Reading through the blog posts, message board threads, and tweets is proof that hockey fans treat trade rumors and fake trade proposals like pornography. The "rumored" (read: proposed by random fans and executed on Playstation) returns for Penner include:
- Wayne Simmonds
- Wayne Simmonds and Colten Teubert
- Waybe Simmonds and Thomas Hickey
- Brayden Schenn
- Colten Teubert and Thomas Hickey
- Wayne Simmonds and a draft choice
- Brayden Schenn and Thomas Hickey
The rumors were given a new and greater life by Elliotte Friedman in his weekly column:
There is a feeling around the league that Ales Hemsky (who has concussion issues) and Dustin Penner are available for the right price. Of course, the Oilers need what everyone needs - centremen and defencemen. A healthy Hemsky gets you more than Penner, but there is no doubt Penner's play on a bad Oilers team over the past two years has changed a lot of the negative perceptions about him.
Even the venerable Lowetide thinks "...there's a chance these two teams could do business again on the trade market."
The thing about moving Penner to the Kings is it doesn't make sense for either side if both sides were well-managed organizations. I can't express the Oilers side of this any better than Pat at Black Dog Hates Skunks already has:
Here's the thing. If management has a very clear idea that either player is definitely not going to sign an extension then they probably have to move them and get something for them but otherwise they need to fullcourt press these guys and get their signatures on paper.
Why? Because when it comes to building a champion there is one model that stands above all others. Its a simple one. Accumulate good players. Keep them. Its what Detroit has been doing for two decades now and in that time period they have six appearances in the Cup Finals, four Stanley Cups and they have been a contender every single year.
...
Some might argue that Hall and Eberle will step into their roles and I think that absolutely the two kids are going to be outscorers and good for around thirty or more goals apiece but then who replaces those two spots in the lineup?
Emphasis mine. Pat nails this one - unless management is dead certain they are losing Penner or Ales Hemsky to free agency, trading them is a mistake. As sexy as prospects are, especially to a fan base already conditioned to accept any move in the name of a rebuild if it brings in prospects, and as salacious as big trades like this are, the Oilers need to retain good players. They need someone to play tough minutes both on offense and defense. Trading Penner and Hemsky set back and playoff run at least a year, more likely two years. Even teams packed with prospects need real NHL players and veterans to play the toughs - Stu MacGregor alone will not bring a Stanley Cup to Edmonton - the CBA ensures this.
From the Kings' perspective, exchanging top-end prospects for a short-term fix makes no sense either. The core of the Kings roster is either signed long-term or under control through restricted free agency. At forward, Anze Kopitar is signed for the next five years, Dustin Brown for three. Wayne Simmonds, Brad Richardson, Andrei Loktionov and Kyle Clifford are all restricted free agents. On defense, Drew Doughty is still on his entry-level contract and his partner Jack Johnson is signed through the most of the decade. Matt Greene is sgined for three years and Rob Scuderi is under contract for two. In goal, Jonathan Quick is signed for two more seasons and Jonathan Bernier is still playing on his entry-level contract.
Essentially, except for Ryan Smyth, the pieces that Los Angeles are in danger of losing are those pieces brought in through trade or free agency and easily replaced through minor trade or free agency. Michal Handzus, Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams, Marco Sturm, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Willie Mitchell - these types of players are available each year in the free agency market and have become less expensive in the last two years.
The Kings have a core group of prospects in Brayden Schenn, Derek Forbort, Thomas Hickey, Colten Teubert, Vyacheslav Voynov, and Tyler Toffoli who are expected to become impact NHL players. As the Kings lose the players mentioned above, these prospects should slowly fill those positions not filled through free agency. The Kings also have a number of boom-or-bust prospects in Maxim Kitsyn, Jordan Weal, Jake Muzzin and Brandon Kozun who should produce at least one regular NHL player.
The Kings have no incentive to wreck their prospect pool to take a shot at a short-term fix. Because the Kings have long-term contracts in place, there is no short-term "window" closing on their hopes and no reason to make an immediate move to keep that window open. However, all of this is moot if the Oilers allow themselves to lose a Penner trade - Simmonds straight up, or Simmonds and a pick, for example - in which the Kings don't have to lose impact players.
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The Kings could still use additional scoring. They likely have enough prospects that they could afford to part with one or two of them. I want Penner and Hemsky if they will both sign, but if we’re going to keep only one of them, I’d rather they trade Hemsky because I think he has more cache, you can re-sign Penner to a more reasonable contract (5 million per year for four years?), Penner is healthier and his skillset isn’t really duplicated by anyone in this organization. How many young players fit Hemsky’s description of high speed winger with ridiculous puck skills? Enough that his loss can likely be filled eventually.
Hemsky for Schenn is a good starting point. I’d consider that deal straight up, but a sweetener might have to be thrown in with Schenn to make it work.
by David Supina on Feb 2, 2011 12:48 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
…no.
That isn’t a trade that makes sense for the Oilers. ….though that probably means they’ll do it.
I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there
Yes, because getting a blue-chip centreman prospect on a rebuilding team that has relatively few players down the middle makes no sense.
You’ve still not answered the question – who is going to play the tough minutes, and why do you want to extend the rebuild by two years to acquire yet another prospect?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Who cares, Derek? Just keep trading established top line players for prospects who might some day be up to that task.
I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there
by verduci on Feb 3, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe because I don’t think it’s going to be that much longer before Gagner and Hall arrive as impact players.
I think Hemsky’s skillset is easier to replace from within, if not his production right away. And the man seems to always be injured. How much of an impact has Hemsky really had on this team in the past two seasons? He’s teased us with brilliance, then gotten hurt. The reality is that asking Hemsky to be healthy enough to post more than fifty points in a season may be unrealistic at this point.
I’m not all doom and gloom on Hemsky, and I do acknowledge the need for veteran players, but I’d understand if the Oilers let Hemsky go, added a supporting piece through free agency, and re-signed Penner instead. I don’t think the rebuild gets delayed for two years if they let him go. It gets delayed for two years if they let all their veteran players go, but of the five veterans that can play a key role in this team, they can probably let go the guy who is a injury-prone, offensive minded winger. As has been mentioned, I do have my doubts about both of them being signed for reasonable contracts. If you can ink them both reasonably, great. But I think one of them will end up getting dealt, and if I have to choose, I’d rather keep Penner. I’d take “lazy Penner” than “out with a ‘mild’ concussion Hemsky” any day of the week.
by David Supina on Feb 4, 2011 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
Meh if we can get something good in return for Hemsky pull the trigger Schenn and a Dman like Hickey and I wouldn’t complain every year is supposed to be Hemskys huge year but it never happens, and I agree that he has no one to play with but maybe no one can play with him, Cole was good before he came here same with Lupul and to an extent POS, but none played well here (I dont know how much time they played with Hemsky but I know they all did at some point) and Penner didn’t start putting up points until Hemsky went out. I don’t think Hemsky is the guy to build around so why not get a potential top 6 F and top 4 D?
I wouldn’t be upset if the Oilers signed Hemsky either but I just think trading Hemsky isn’t the end of the world.
Under Pressure
Here’s the thing about trade deadline though, it creates a pressure to do something in even the stoniest of hearts.
LA is in a tough place. They should be in the playoff picture, but they are standing at 11th looking in (even if it is only 5 points to the middle of the pack). This creates a dilemma for the man making the decisions, because despite any assurances that he will keep his job if they don’t make the playoffs, he has to know it will be on his head if they don’t. Which means there is at least a subconcious pressure to “do something.” And if a Penner or Hemsky is available the temptation to give up something long-term to achieve the short-term goal is likely irresistible.
A good GM of a seller team would likely ratchet up the pressure by asking for a blue-sky package before an offer was ever made, just to raise the negotiation stakes (while letting it slip that X’s GM was just talking to me too).
I would love to see the GM who could resist the kind of pressure that all of the teams in the west are facing right now. I suspect the Oilers could get some very favourable returns, even for modest players like JVM and Foster in this kind of climate.
Carthago Delendum Est
I think your argument against it makes more sense for the Oilers than it does for the Kings. I highly doubt they’d move Schenn for a short term fix, but they have plenty of other prospects that simply can’t all fit in the team’s future (especially on defense). Then again, if those prospects don’t fit the Oilers’ needs, that wouldn’t matter either.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Derek does a really great job of presenting the likely mindset of both GM’s in today’s article. But these comments that suggest that Schenn would get traded straight up for any one Oiler Roster Player really has me scratching my head. It’s going to get a lot more than simply Penner or Hemskey to get Schenn out of Dean Lombardi’s hands.
Taylor Morgan: "My abortion was botched!"
Teemu Selanne: "Wow. That sounds awesome."
by DodgerBlueBalls on Feb 2, 2011 2:35 PM MST up reply actions
Yes. An excess of top-flight center prospects…that, we don’t have. I don’t know why people think Schenn’s available. Moving other prospects even for a short term two-year fix wouldn’t be bad management, though. Muzzin, Voynov, Martinez, Hickey aren’t going to all fit our team, esp. with Doughty and Johnson, though I do think they will all stick in the NHL. Dealing away PMD makes sense.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
“Stu MacGregor alone will not bring a Stanley Cup to Edmonton”
I need to get this shirt made.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Feb 2, 2011 2:20 PM MST reply actions 2 recs
Kings' point of view
Dean Lombardi will not trade Brayden Schenn. There’s just no way. (the exception is always the absurd fleecing of a drunken GM option — e.g. Schenn for Crosby — trades that never happen.)
He’s also not going to trade Wayne Simmonds.
if you assume that Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty are going to be around for awhile (a safe assumption), it’s hard to imagine that all of Alec Martinez, Thomas Hickey, Viatcheslav Voynov (fastest man alive) and Nicolas Deslauriers will crack the line-up (although the idea of dressing six normal-to-small-sized offensive defensemen is hilarious). At least two of those guys will have to be dealt at some point…but probably not this month…and which one do you deal? Voynov is the most valuable right now, which is both why teams would want him and why Lombardi won’t give him up. Martinez is playing big minutes for the Kings right now; trading him would be stupid; Deslauriers is a couple of years younger than everyone else and I don’t think he’s on anyone’s trade-bait radar, though he might be the best of all of those prospects…I said “might”. Is Lombardi willing to deal Hickey before he’s ever played an NHL game? No way.
Jake Muzzin isn’t boom or bust. He’s boom. Among the big bodies, Muzzin is the smallest, but his style of play puts him in a group with Teubert and Forbort. One of those guys is probably going to get shipped off at some point, but that point is years off. Muzzin is ahead of Teubert in development, who is ahead of Forbort and Gravel. So that’s not a decision that Lombardi needs or wishes to make now. He’ll wait to see what happens.
Kopitar, Brown, Williams, Clifford, Scuderi, Greene, Quick, Bernier, Johnson, Doughty, Simmonds and Loktionov aren’t going anywhere. I don’t think Edmonton wants Smyth’s salary. Handzus and Stoll? I don’t see the point of Edmonton taking those guys on.
Bernier re-signed, by the way. His contract and Quick’s expire at the same time.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Feb 2, 2011 2:45 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Jake Muzzin isn’t boom or bust. He’s boom
Umm, what?
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Muzzin is not even close to being a bust.
He was OHL defenseman of the year last year. He was signed as a free agent by Lombardi. He played great for Manchester in last year’s playoffs. He made the Kings out of camp this year and played a couple of excellent games and some not so great ones, due entirely to inexperience, and was sent down to Manchester. he was injured but now he’s back. I don’t think anyone thinks he won’t an NHL regular. On top of which, he’s, what, 20?
Plus, in order to be a bust, there have to be expectations. There were none. Pretty much the only person who predicted that Muzzin might make the Kings this year…was me.
Wait till this year.
He won the OHL defenceman of the year as an over-ager. It doesn’t get much easier than being a 20 year old in a league with a bunch of 17 and 18 year olds. At one time the Oilers (2001) had the reigning defenceman of the year in all 3 major junior leagues (Chrisian Chartier-WHL, Marc Andre Bergeron-QMJHL, Alexandre Semenov-OHL).
All 3 guys won it as an over-aged junior and none of them are in the NHL right now. It’s a nice award but it doesn’t mean much.
And I think you need to improve your definition of boom or bust. It refers to either going to be an impact player or not even be in the league. I don’t think that describes him at all. He’s tracking very well for a player of his age, but that’s the extent of it.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
i think we're saying the same thing, actually.
i just said he’s “boom” because I was given the choice of boom or bust. I agree, he’s neither. but i think you will concede that in general you can’t be a bust if no-one had any expectations for you in the first place. can, for example, a seventh round pick be a bust?
re ohl defenseman of the year: I agree with you; however, muzzin overcame huge obstacles even to return to playing hockey after his injury, so I don’t think you can write the whole thing off to being an overager.
Wait till this year.
fans always think their prospects are much more untouchable than they are. if the kings want dustin penner, they’re going to have to give up something nice.
who said the Kings want Dustin Penner?
Lombardi would never give up a blue-chip prospect for a player he can sign a year from now (well, 7/1/12) and give up nothing.
Also, keep in mind, so far, in his Kings tenure, Lombardi has never dealt a player he himself drafted.
I agree with you that fans who pay attention to prospects tend to over-value them. Also, fans who don’t, don’t. But it’s also true that fans over-value their superstars. Dustin Penner is valuable, certainly. I actually would like him to be a King. But look at the comparables. What player of his caliber or better has gotten a return that equaled the expectation? Kovalchuk? Smyth? Okay, maybe the Kessel trade and the Pronger trade…but those involved big draft picks more than anything.
And the playing field is limited to teams who (1) are playoff bound or at least in the hunt, and (2) have cap space. How many teams fit that description AND have prospects worth trading Penner to get?
Wait till this year.
Lombardi would never give up a blue-chip prospect for a player he can sign a year from now (well, 7/1/12) and give up nothing.
when teams attempt to emulate the advice of 1980s toy commercials and ‘collect them all’, they tend to get less than what they expected. sitting on all of one’s prospects means that usually teams have cottoned to the fact that a particular guy isn’t all that good right about the time when they’re ready to move him. penner is a free agent in 2012 – that’s a long way off.
But look at the comparables. What player of his caliber or better has gotten a return that equaled the expectation? Kovalchuk? Smyth?
atlanta had to trade kovalchuk. smyth was on a long term contract that didn’t seem like a smart deal when it was signed, and wasn’t exactly working out that way. penner is on a fair deal that expires right when you’d want it to.
And the playing field is limited to teams who (1) are playoff bound or at least in the hunt, and (2) have cap space. How many teams fit that description AND have prospects worth trading Penner to get?
there’s lots of teams in the playoff race, and edmonton could act as a contract disposer, if it wanted to.
i agree that since edmonton isn’t compelled to move penner, that probably makes the price prohibitively high for the kings, but they should not be categorically opposed to trading away one of these players if it’s going to improve the team right now.
it’s 17 months away. that’s a long time in hockey terms.
so yeah, ‘hey, we could have him for free, if we wait until free agency, and if we probably end up paying him more than anyone else was offering, and giving him more years.’
yeah, but he will get that deal, whatever it is, whether the kings trade for him first or not
the equation is still, what is penner worth, to Lombardi, for 1.33 seasons? since I believe Lombardi’s plan involves Schenn, Loktionov, Moller, Hickey or Voynov, and Muzzin all being Kings in 2012-13, I don’t think any of those guys is going to be shipped out for 17 months of anybody. Especially since Lombardi is more patient than most people, certainly more so than me.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Feb 2, 2011 11:04 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
it’s not true that he will get that deal regardless of whether the kings trade for him first. players sign before hitting free agency all the time.
of course, but that's beside the point.
they sign before hitting free agency if they get an offer they’re willing to accept. If they don’t get that offer, they “test” free agency and usually that means they’re not coming back. So either they get the deal before 7/1 (with whomever has his rights) or he gets it after (with someone else).
Wait till this year.
Dean Lombardi has been quoted as saying they’re now in a position to trade prospects and picks in order improve their team. He hasn’t made those trades in the past because they’re premature.
Fact of the matter is that Penner and Hemsky are probably the best additions that could be made at the deadline, because there are relatively few teams completely out of contention with forwards that good. And Dustin Penner isn’t overrated by the fanbase. If anything, he’s underrated because everyone and their mother thinks he would be “dominant” if he just “worked harder”. It’s actually the advance stat crowd that’s high on Penner.
And how many comparables are there? A very good player heading into his prime years with more than a year on his contract? Has that deal ever been made at a deadline?
just to clarify
I (Quisp) like Penner. In the past, I have advocated trading for him. I (Quisp) am not opposed to trading prospects (or, for that matter, sacred cow roster players). My point, in part, is that Lombardi is very conservative and protective with regard to his prospects. The “premature” argument became non-operational about a year ago, yet no deals have been forthcoming.
I am aware of Penner’s advanced stats. This is one of the reasons I thought the Kings should go for him, going back a year or so. He was (and maybe still is) like a good “value” stock.
Wait till this year.
However, something like:
Penner, EDM 2nd round pick in 2011
for
LAK 1st round pick in 2011 and 2nd round pick in 2012 and one of the tiny tots (Weal, Roe, Azevedo)
yeah, see, it’s hard to make that work.
Wait till this year.
so let’s get this straight: edmonton gets to move up what, 15-20 spaces in this draft, and get a 2nd and a worthless prospect? yeah i’m sure they will be signing up for that.
thus my sentence "yeah see it's hard to make that work."
isn’t the point of this post that it doesn’t make sense for the oilers to trade penner to the kings, and aren’t my comments agreeing with that?
Wait till this year.
your comments are all over the place
I don’t think Lombardi would have any problem trading a prospect if it meant getting into the playoffs, the kings are competitive right now so adding a roster player and a top 6 at that without giving up a roster player doesn’t hurt them, and having that additional year from hemsky and penner with a resonable cap hit would only make lombardi more willing to trade a prospect. Saying he can sign him anyway makes no sense the kings “could” have signed k-chuk but they didn’t.
Thanks.
My comments are part of a conversation, a response to other people’s comments. My point has been consistent, I think:
1) Lombardi is not going to trade a blue-chip prospect (Schenn, Loktionov, Bernier) or young roster player (Simmonds) for 1.33 years of Dustin Penner.
2) Nothing the Kings might offer for Penner is likely to be of interest to the Oilers.
3) Therefore, I agree the rumored deal makes no sense.
4) I personally am a little less opposed to dealing prospects (or stars, for that matter). But I am not running the Kings.
Now, as to your points:
I don’t think Lombardi would have any problem trading a prospect if it meant getting into the playoffs
That depends on the prospect. I guarantee you he would have a huge problem trading Schenn, Loktionov, Bernier or Simmonds just to get into the playoffs this year.
I also don’t think Lombardi (or any Kings fan) thinks Dustin Penner is the difference between the Kings making the playoffs and not.
the kings are competitive right now so adding a roster player and a top 6 at that without giving up a roster player doesn’t hurt them
Lombardi is not going to trade Brayden Schenn for a round or two of the 2011 playoffs. That’s not his m.o.. Lombardi is not going to do anything to upset the roadmap to his vision of the Kings roster two or three seasons from now. If he had any interest in doing that, he would have offered Kovalchuk $7MM cap hit and he’d be a King now. (Which would have been a huge mistake, in my opinion — because of what it would have done to other Kings’ salaries.)
having that additional year from hemsky and penner with a resonable cap hit would only make lombardi more willing to trade a prospect.
That assumes that Lombardi would rather have Penner or Hemsky for one year rather than signing someone else this summer and still getting to keep Schenn (or whoever). I seriously doubt that’s the case. Simon Gagne is much more Lombardi’s speed. He likes those ex-Flyers with a history of injuries (Williams, Handzus).
Saying he can sign him anyway makes no sense the kings "could" have signed k-chuk but they didn’t.
That doesn’t follow.
Wait till this year.
I think Bill Torrey said something similar to what Pat said, about the most important thing in building a championship team being getting as many good players as you can. It came from a Bathroom Reader, of all things, but I’ll see if I can dig up the exact quote.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Each team has to ask one question of themselves.
For the Kings: “Are we a contender in 10/11 and 11/12 if we add Penner/Hemsky without giving up a roster player?”
I think the answer to that is absolutely.
For the Oilers, it might be two questions “Is this a playoff team in 11/12?” And “Will Hemsky and Penner sign here?”
I think the first question could be answered in the affirmative if they got serious about adding 2-3 forwards and 2 dmen. I have no idea about question #2.
When does the current CBA expire?
by RiversQ on Feb 2, 2011 4:51 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Much like RivQ I have to think that a trade is desirable from the Kings side of the equation and quite possible from the Oilers side.
I would be doing my best to extend Penner and Hemsky but Hemsky I need to be cheap because I am not paying $5.5 million or more for a concussion risk – I just could/can not ignore the injury history. So $5 million for Penner and $5 million for Hemsky – with any luck the numbers are even lower because I go for retirement style contracts.
That said, if either one won’t commit to signing, soon, then I press for a Schenn, D prospect and a 1st deal. I know I can offer a 3rd round pick without any qualms if that seals a deal. For the D prospect I take a hard look at the Tuebert vs. Forbort dynamic simply because Tuebert is 2 years further along. Finally, if flipping them Plante and taking back a contract like Ponikarovsky greases the wheels and allow me to dump Brule on them, that has to be in the discussion.
Hemsky goes before Penner if I can help it. And that is said as a person who likes watching Hemsky play and likes him better as a player overall.
So, you're saying, something like...
Penner or Hemsky to LA
Schenn, one of Teubert or Forbort and a 1st to EDM.
Well, I would be surprised if Lombardi would do Schenn for Penner straight up. He’s not going to throw in a mid-first round pick and one of two first-round draft choices he specifically traded up to select.
Yes, yes, I know, Schenn is a prospect, and Penner is a proven 20-30 goal scorer. But Schenn is three years away from his first RFA contract, and a few years after that till he’s a UFA. Penner is a UFA next summer. Schenn is essentially being counted on to be the anchor at second or third line center for the next several years. Lombardi is not trading that away.
You might get an offer like Stoll and a 1st. I know you think that’s a ridiculous offer. But we’ll see. If Penner doesn’t want to sign in Edmonton, other GMs won’t have to give as much up. And, as many have pointed out, if they CAN sign him, they will sign him. So, if he’s traded, the return is not going to be as big as people think.
Wait till this year.
Well, what I was looking at was closer to:
Penner, Brule (or Foster), Plante & 3rd (#62-65)
FOR
Ponikarovsky, Schenn, Forbort (or Tuebert) and 1st (#15-20)
What's interesting about the contrast between our different points of view on this, is
it’s an excellent illustration of why a deal for Penner is not likely to happen.
Wait till this year.
Won’t disagree with you there. I can see Tambs pulling the Iginla style trade (Schenn for Penner or Hemsky straight up) and saying he won and I can see where both fan bases would figure their guy lost… unless, of course, it did turn out to be an Iginla style trade (wherein both teams won) but those are few and far between imo.
by Jaysen Knight on Feb 3, 2011 8:34 PM MST up reply actions
Is it? LA was supposed to take another step forward this season, and they’re still struggling to get inside the playoff cut. They need immediate help, because they need to get back on track so that their window for a championship starts next season. I’d be a little concerned, if I was LA.
The market is buyer heavy and relatively light on sellers. The teams that are completely out are relatively few, and few of them have very many premium players. What happens if the next best offer comes from a division rival to LA in Dallas for Penner? Do they really want to lose a key piece to a team they’re hoping to usurp at the top of the division? Who else are they going to get in a deal? Unless they want to pay seven million for a struggling Spezza, I don’t see what they’re going to try.
The market and pressure to make a deal might be higher than Lombardi would like, but that doesn’t make it less so. He can sit it out, keep his prospects, and wait, but the result might be that he ends up not being able to beat out some of the other contenders in the West.
by David Supina on Feb 4, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions
LA was supposed to take another step forward this season.
Yes and no. As I said in the pre-season, the chances of the Kings topping last year’s 101 points, which was the third best finish in franchise history, were not very good. Personally, I was hoping for more consistency, less streakiness, and that obviously didn’t happen. They’re actually just about the same as last year, in those terms.
A lot of that was the media, with their “The Kings are this season’s break out team” nonsense. They like their little narratives. But it’s fiction.
Now, as far as the fan-base goes, I agree with your statement; there will be a lot of unhappy people if the Kings don’t make the playoffs this year. I will be one of them. But I won’t be calling for Lombardi’s head, as many will. So in that sense, if management has feet of clay, yeah there might actually be some desperation. But: Lombardi has never made a trade that mortgages the future for short-term needs, at least not with the Kings.
And I don’t think he thinks Penner is “the missing piece.” Or maybe I’m the one who doesn’t think that. In any case, if he balked at the (trade deadline) price for Kovalchuk, I don’t see him coughing up some of the same pieces for Penner.
They need immediate help, because they need to get back on track so that their window for a championship starts next season.
I agree that the Kings have needs. But I don’t think Lombardi thinks that way. He generally makes moves that he believes fit the long-term plan. And he is frequently showing himself to be more patient than (most) fans. Some argue he’s too patient. I don’t think so. I don’t even think it’s patience, really. He’s just incredibly stubborn about sticking to the plan he believes is going to work, and that’s a long-term vision. Whether he has ownership’s support is another issue; who knows?
What happens if the next best offer comes from a division rival to LA in Dallas for Penner? Do they really want to lose a key piece to a team they’re hoping to usurp at the top of the division?
That depends on what Dallas has to give up to get him, and whether he re-signs in 2012, and whether Lombardi thinks passing on Penner now will make it prohibitively hard for him to sign Penner as a UFA, presuming he is even interested in doing this. But, yeah, it would suck if Dallas traded for Penner, gave up little, and went on to win the cup, with Penner gettiing the Conn Smythe.
The market and pressure to make a deal might be higher than Lombardi would like, but that doesn’t make it less so.
I don’t know if he feels that pressure or not. As a long-time Kings fan, I don’t personally feel any added pressure this year. The main difference is that the Kings have lots of prospects to deal away, whereas pre-Lombardi, the cupboard was usually pretty bare.
Wait till this year.
I think the Kings are in a really good position to make a trade like that. The have tons of prospects in the system and many young players already with the team, trading a prospect or two wouldnt hurt them (Also this is just speculation but I don’t think the kings are too high on Schenn but who knows). Also the difference between last years deadline and this year getting Hemsky or Penner for that additional year/ lower cap hit/ lower salry to resign, obviously they are not as talented as Kovalchuk but they are both pretty good two way top six players.
In the end I don’t think a trade will be done but if it was I think it would make sense for both GMs and benefit both teams in terms of their needs.
To add to that too
There are not many sellers this year and many teams hovering around playoff spots so I think that ups the demand for rental players. Also not many top 6 players on the market which should increase Hemsky and Penners value.
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