Deadline Sellers? Maybe The Oilers Should Buy.
by Derek Zona on Feb 16, 2011 10:45 AM MST
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Photo by: Brooke Novak, via Wikimedia Commons, creative commons license.
After watching Panthers' General Manager Dale Tallon gift Michael Frolik to the Chicago Blackhawks, the thought occurred to me that the Oilers should look to buy at the deadline, as long as the player and price is right. Instead of making the decision to trade Penner or Hemsky, why not go out and acquire a center for the two of them?
This post at Litter Box Cats talks about the possibility of Tallon moving Stephen Weiss at the deadline, and if Frolik's return is any indication, the Oilers should be asking about cost involved. Long-time readers may remember I made the same argument during the run up to the 2010 trade deadline, but with Tallon at the helm, things have changed. Weiss is still the tough minutes outscoring center who can win faceoffs, play in all three zones, kill penalties and play on the power play, but he's got a new General Manager and a new asking price.
Tallon was given credit for the Blackhawks wonderful run last season, but a closer look at that team shows Tallon's performance was nothing special. In fact, he was responsible for forcing the Blackhawks to blow up the team in the off-season.
Tallon's modus operandi in Florida has been to add size, speed and bulk, even at the expense of outscoring, tough-minutes players. The Oilers have the former in droves and lack the latter something fierce. If it's size he's after, the Oilers have over-sized prospects Ryan Martindale, Drew Czerwonka, Alex Plante, Cameron Abney, Ryan O`Marra and even Tyler Pitlick. They've got speedy NHL players in Gilbert Brule and Andrew Cogliano and they should have extra draft picks after selling Ryan Jones, Kurtis Foster, Colin Fraser, and Jim Vandermeer.
Weiss has a cap hit of $3,100,000 for the next two years. His dirt cheap contract coincides with Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi's entry-level contracts. The only downside to this line is Weiss' no-trade clause - something the Oilers would have to overcome - maybe the Katz jet and full-court press will work this time - but aside from that, bringing Weiss in has zero downside.
Kevin Lowe's company line has the Oilers competing for a playoff spot in three years and contending for a title in six, but if Steve Tambellini wants to manage the club the right way, he'll find out what Tallon is looking for in return for Weiss and try like hell to find some common ground. A power vs. power line of Dustin Penner - Stephen Weiss - Ales Hemsky and the addition of a defense-first, penalty killing defenseman and a cheap UFA replacement for Nikolai Khabibulin accelerates the timeline by two seasons without damaging the salary structure or long-term plans of this team.
Weiss isn't the only player available. There are other teams looking to shed useful parts to create salary cap room and the Oilers should be sifting through the possibilities. Sitting back and waiting on the rebuild to come to fruition only increases the chances that the master plan ends up like those that have come before on Long Island, in Atlanta and Florida.
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you scared me..i went to Tsn and checked….
If Cgy acquires him I will be pissed off that we missed out on that opportunity
Rebuild is a convenient excuse for GMs who dont wish to do their jobs
Now that we have a mid-1st round pick as opposed to a high-1st rounder, I’d be willing to put that in play for a guy like Weiss. I’d like to get a 2nd and/or 3rd before I move the 1st tho. Also, Greg Nemisz may be of interest. And maybe, JUST MAYBE, Dale Tallon is "genius"enough to acquire Matt Stajan! I can dream…
Stajan & a 1st for Weiss & a 3rd?
Nemisz & a 1st for Weiss & a 2nd?
Since it looks as though the Flames aren’t gonna be sellers and start dismantling, pick/prospects for NHL players in their 20’s may make some sense. Weiss could help crack their “window to win” back open.
If the Flames trade, say. Glencross for a first rounder they could feel better about putting their first rounder in play for Weiss…
by Kent Wilson on Feb 16, 2011 11:20 AM MST up reply actions
If the Flames trade, say. Glencross for a first rounder th
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Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Feb 16, 2011 3:02 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
That deal was ridiculous, as far as I am concerned Cogliano is better than Skille, while Brule and Jones are in the range. If you could trade any of those 3, plus a non prospect in the AHL (Jessiman? wtf) plus a mid tier CHL prospect for Weiss you should be fired if you didn’t. Frolik shouldn’t be too far south of Weiss value considering his age and performance (plus the inclusion of a top tier goalie prospect). Call it Cogliano + Omarra + Matrindale would you make that trade for the Oil? I would. I’d trade all 3 of Cogs/Brule/Jones for Weiss.and still come out on top of the deal.
If only Oilers managament could come up with a better rebuild plan than crap the bed and hope it all falls in your lap.
by Oi on Feb 16, 2011 11:58 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
If the price is going to be that low you jump on it. I think Tallon has a much better idea what he has with Weiss than he did with Frolik and getting a steal here is going to be more difficult. Not to mention that 2 more years of Weiss at 3.1 is great value. I think the cost here is going to be much closer to what we’d want the Oilers to get for Penner than what Florida got for Frolik.
I like the idea of Weiss, but according to Beatty’s article:
“Why he’ll stay: Weiss is too important to this team to trade him for less than a stellar deal. He’s committed to staying with the Panthers and being a part of their resurgence. His no-movement clause became active this year, giving him veto power over any impending deal.”
I can’t see why he would want to join the Oilers when he’s happy in Florida.
I like the idea of Weiss, but according to Beatty’s article:
Which is why I wrote:
The only downside to this line is Weiss’ no-trade clause – something the Oilers would have to overcome – maybe the Katz jet and full-court press will work this time – but aside from that, bringing Weiss in has zero downside.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The only downside to this line is Weiss’ no-trade clause – something the Oilers would have to overcome – maybe the Katz jet and full-court press will work this time
How would this conversation go anyway?
DK: Hey Steve, are you interested in dropping your NMC so that you can move from Miami to Edmonton?
SW: Well, I am willing to listen. Will I have a chance to compete for a cup?
KL: In 4-6 years!!!
SW: A quick look at the last few years standings shows me that the Oilers are the only team worse than the Panthers in the last 5 years.
ST (V.04): I have full authority to change the make up of this team. I am fully in charge.
SW: Oh, well the Panthers have been a really shitty hockey team the last few years, but have had a great goalie in Tom Vokoun to bail us out. How’s the situation in Edmonton?
NK: MVP baby.
by Matt.N on Feb 16, 2011 12:28 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
Rec’d
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by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 16, 2011 2:50 PM MST up reply actions
That’s outstanding. I have no response. You win.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Are you nuts, Edmonton needs a big right handed centerman, not another smurf. This trade makes no sense at all. The only way this deal happens is if they flip him to another team right away for something they need. Also Oi I would wait on Matrindale for a couple of years, he might turn out to be a good player. Check out his stats:
G G A pts +/- pim
2010-11 Regular Season Ottawa 67’s 50 31 40 71 35 20
Yes, we’re all well aware of Martindale’s stats. We’ve written about him previously:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/11/6/1743240/ryan-martindale-scouting-report-from-the-scouting-reports-scott
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/1/22/1941459/ryan-martindale-15-in-edmontons-top-25-under-25
Edmonton needs a big right handed centerman, not another smurf.
Edmonton needs players who beat tough minutes. Weiss is exactly that. Size doesn’t matter when you can play the game.
To humor you though, I’ll tell you what – let’s do a thought experiment. You are only allowed to draft forwards who are 6’3" and larger. I get all of the other forwards. Who will have the better, and tougher, team?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Size doesn’t matter when you can play the game.
Then explain to me why Edmonton gets mugged most of the time with these larger teams, like the Ducks. You cannot play if your plastered against the boards or with your butt on the ice. I guess you would prefer all hockey games to be played like that joke of a all-star game. Also tell that Vancouver last year when they got mugged by Chicago that size doesn’t matter. You don’t need all big players, but at least get a couple with some grit and can play would help.
Prorating size to icetime this year:
Edmonton average height = 73.501
Anaheim average height = 73.357
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by George E. Ays on Feb 16, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
But while I’m at it
Found a small error on a line, but while I’m at it.
Edmonton 73.571in, 206.78lbs
Anaheim 73.061, 202.6lbs
Edmonton Forwards: 72.633 in, 199.2lbs
Anaheim Forwards: 72.764in, 199.8lbs
Edmonton Defense: 74.929in, 217.72lbs
Anaheim Defense: 73.361in, 206.5lbs
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by George E. Ays on Feb 16, 2011 4:45 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Owwwwwwwwwwwwch. That’s a whoopin.
Unforunately derrickhand has been trapped by confirmation bias. It happens.
Thanks for dropping by, George.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Once again Derek you been trap by the stats, compare the Ducks 2 top lines to Edmonton’s 2 top lines. Those are the lines that play the most, also besides Penner (when he shows up to play) none of them really play a physical game. Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan ran are all over our guys, they’re 6’2" to 6’4", weighing 210-225. They made room for their smaller players to play. Also those stats include everyone on the team and if you took STEVE MACINTYRE and JEAN-FRANCOIS JACQUES that size average drops drastically. Show the stats for the top 2 lines and compare them. Sometimes stats can mislead you and this is one.
Wasn’t that the entire point of “prorating size to icetime”?
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Feb 16, 2011 6:55 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Top 6 forwards by ice time, no weighting
ANA: 72.83in, 201.67lbs
EDM: 72.83in, 201.67lbs
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by George E. Ays on Feb 17, 2011 2:46 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
dammit…EDM 201.17lbs
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by George E. Ays on Feb 17, 2011 2:47 PM MST up reply actions
That’s actually hilarious. Thanks, George.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Then explain to me why Edmonton gets mugged most of the time with these larger teams, like the Ducks.
No, I’d rather not. Let’s play the game above. You get all of the Frankensteins, I get everyone else. Who is better?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
As I’m sure you know, I agree with the principle here (i.e. good hockey players are what matters), but if I only need to construct one team, I think that Team Frankenstein may well kick ass so long as we’re talking about guys who are listed at 6’3’’ by the NHL now and not necessarily that big when they were drafted. An awful lot of the elite centers and defenders in this league are that big or bigger.
Abney, Abney, oh why TF did we have to pick Abney?
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 16, 2011 6:26 PM MST up reply actions
You are only allowed to draft forwards
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I see, I see. I still think Team Frankenstein would have a really good shot, but Team Midget would be pretty darn good too.
Abney, Abney, oh why TF did we have to pick Abney?
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 17, 2011 12:49 PM MST up reply actions
There was no competition for Skille in the trade market.
There is massive competition for Weiss in the rate market.
The Oilers would be competing against desparate buyers at the trade deadline for the few good players that are available.
Weiss is a good player, but he is not likely to waive a no trade to come to Edmonton, and the price will be prohibitive when bidding against playoff teams.
Buy in the summer time. Sell at the trade deadline. That is how to maximize value for talent in general.
Derek’s just got a thing for Weiss. Looking at his last paragraph, who else of interest might conceivably come available, while not being of more value to a playoff team than to the Oilers. Somebody with a long-term injury perhaps? That Derek Roy is a pretty good player, and Buffalo sits ninth in the east without him …
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 16, 2011 2:53 PM MST up reply actions
Niskanen, Kulemin, Demers, Weiss, Regin, Stafford are all guys he should ask about. If Olesz is on the outs as he is rumored to be and they can get him for a song, they should step in. He might not put up points, but he’s a burgeoning microstat guy.
They could fill some needs with a guy like Korpikoski or maybe Powe.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Buy in the summer time. Sell at the trade deadline. That is how to maximize value for talent in general.
Sell expiring assets at the deadline. Don’t pay for expiring assets at the deadline. They should sell the players I mentioned in the article above. But they should be looking for players to help. If Ottawa is really only interested in draft picks and everyone is available, the Oilers should find out what they want for Peter Regin.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It is next to impossible to make a good deal for Weiss now with a bunch of frenzied playoff bound teams bidding on him.
It is dumb to get in a bidding war on a house just because you like the house, or buy at the top of the stock market. The probability is strongly against the Oilers being able to make a good deal for an actual player long term.at the trade deadline.
I say Regin, you say Weiss. If I say Powe, will you say Weiss?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Weiss or anyone… I couldn’t agree more that this ‘sit and wait for the teenagers to win a cup’ philosophy is stupid… they need to get some other players to build around the core they have. You put a guy like Weiss in and even your second line is a lot stronger (say maybe Eberle, Hall and Horcoff)…. it’d create a nice trickledown effect. However, if he has a no movement clause then I’d say chances are slim to none.
Even something as simple as adding Powe to the bottom line at ES and top line on the PK would be outstanding. Not saying he’s available, but it’s worth kicking some tires to see which GMs are willing to let some pieces go.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oilers should buy
The point of trading Hemsky or Penner would be to acquire more assets for the rebuild and/or tank, right?
Both of them are good players on good contracts – that’s valuable. It’s exactly what you need for the kids to take softer minutes while they get used to the NHL and grow into their bodies.
Further, the Oilers don’t need any help getting worse. They can’t make their draft odds any better than last place. Why trade two of your small handful of good NHL players?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 18, 2011 3:36 PM MST reply actions
Saw @TSNRyanRishaug mention this, heard same thing last night: Hemsky very much on Capitals’ radar. Solves 2nd line C, UFA 2012. High cost
Wysh immediately corrected himself and noted that Hemsky is a wing.
From what I heard, they want Carlson or Alzner. And they ain’t getting Carlson. RT @gram_joesph Who would Oil want from the caps?
What do folks around here think?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 20, 2011 10:36 AM MST reply actions
There’s nothing on the roster of equal value that the Caps would be willing to move. Unless they move Carlson or Alzner, I don’t see how it works.
The hilarious part is that Oilers fans already hate defensemen who don’t hit and keep saying the reason the Oilers are losing is because they aren’t tough enough. They’re going to look at Carlson and Alzner’s hit totals and shriek.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Moving this over to your other Fanpost.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 20, 2011 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
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