FanPost

Here is the Plan, first keep Hemsky...


As the current Oiler season limps towards its inevitable conclusion, more and more attention is focused on next year and the look of the Oilers going into the future.

Thoughts on trades, prospects rising, UFAs departing [perhaps arriving] are being voiced here, there, everywhere on the intertubes.

I pasted a little 3-year chart into the comments at Lowetide, a pretty so-so effort if I do say so myself.  I’ve reworked the info a little – fixed the blatant errors and clarified my thoughts.

Its an attempt to give a sense of how the Oiler’s line-up will evolve over the next three seasons - how lines break out, how the Cap Hit changes. 


Its important not to get hung up on the names used, I know everyone has their favourites. The guys mentioned represent ideas discussed many times on this site and others.

 

2011-12

Taylor Hall

3,750,000

Shawn Horcoff

5,500,000

Ales Hemsky

4,100,000

Dustin Penner

4,250,000

Tim Connolly

5,000,000

Jordan Eberle

1,187,500

Magnus Paajarvi

1,525,000

Sam Gagner

2,275,000

Linus Omark

875,000

Liam Reddox

550,000

Anton Lander

1,000,000

Colin McDonald

550,000

Colin Fraser

825,000

Steve MacIntyre

550,000

Ryan Whitney

4,000,000

Tom Gilbert

4,000,000

Ladislav Smid

1,187,500

Jeff Petry

1,000,000

Theo Peckham

1,000,000

Steve Montador

2,000,000

Kurtis Foster

1,800,000

416,667

Devan Dubnyk

800,000

Josh Harding

1,000,000

3,750,000

$52,891,667

 

Here, I’ve

·         re-signed Reddox [though I like Thoreson better] and McDonald

·         permanently promoted Petry and Lander

·         given Peckham a raise

·         loaned Khabibulin to Mytishchi Atlant

·         signed an UFA back-up for Dubnyk

·         given UFAs Connolly and Montador over-pays on two-year contracts

 

As you can see the Oilers have tonnes of Cap room even though they’re paying over $4,000,000 to players in the KHL.

 

 

2012-13

Taylor Hall

3,750,000

Shawn Horcoff

5,500,000

Ales Hemsky

5,500,000

Dustin Penner

5,500,000

Tim Connolly

5,000,000

Jordan Eberle

1,187,500

Magnus Paajarvi

1,525,000

Sam Gagner

2,502,500

Linus Omark

1,750,000

Curtis Hamilton

875,000

Anton Lander

1,000,000

Tyler Pitlick

1,000,000

Teemu Hartikainen

875,000

Colin McDonald

550,000

Ryan Whitney

4,000,000

Tom Gilbert

4,000,000

Ladislav Smid

1,187,500

Jeff Petry

1,000,000

Theo Peckham

1,000,000

Adam Larrson

3,750,000

Steve Montador

2,000,000

Devan Dubnyk

2,400,000

Josh Harding

1,000,000

3,750,000

$60,602,500

 

 

For the second year the Oilers are much closer to the Cap:

·         Hemsky, Penner, Gagner, Omark & Dubnyk have all been given raises

·         Larrson has been brought over from Sweden

·         Hartikainen, Hamilton and Pitlick have been promoted.

·         Everything about Khabibulin, except his Cap hit, remains across the pond

 

2013-14

Taylor Hall

5,750,000

Shawn Horcoff

5,500,000

Ales Hemsky

5,500,000

Dustin Penner

5,500,000

Sam Gagner

2,502,500

Jordan Eberle

3,187,500

Magnus Paajarvi

3,525,000

Anton Lander

1,000,000

Linus Omark

1,750,000

Curtis Hamilton

875,000

Ryan Martindale

875,000

Tyler Pitlick

1,000,000

Teemu Hartikainen

875,000

Colin McDonald

550,000

Ryan Whitney

5,500,000

Tom Gilbert

4,000,000

Martin Marincin

1,000,000

Jeff Petry

2,250,000

Theo Peckham

1,000,000

Adam Larrson

3,750,000

Brandon Davidson

800,000

Devan Dubnyk

2,400,000

Josh Harding

800,000

$59,990,000

 

For the final year of this 3 year plan Comrade:

·         The Three Amigos’ ELCs are kaput, I gave them $2,000,000 extra each per

·         Whitney also gets a raise

·         Martindale, Marincin and Davidson have been promoted. A serious team would re-sign “Montador” to replace Davidson.

·         Again, McDonald represents an utility forward.

 

 

So, we’ve learned that if the Oilers are prudent, they can keep Hemsky & Penner and stay well under the Cap. 2% annual increases will have the Cap north of $63,000,000 by the end of this time frame.

 

I’m not sure, though, if the team as shown is one that can advance beyond the first round of the play-offs.

They look a little light at Center for sure.  By the 3rd year, Horcoff is into greybeard status.

 

I’ve pushed a bunch of the Youth onto the roster, likely more than can actually make it.

However, other than this coming summer, I’ve added no free-agents.

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