Top 25 Under 25 - Final Rankings

I’d have Hamilton, Marincin and Petry all higher. They’re going to play. Hamilton because this team doesn’t have a two-way player with size (other than Penner, who may or may not be part of this organization going forward), so he fills a need, and Marincin and Petry because this team is weak on defence, and will find a home pretty quick for a couple of guys with a multiplicity of skills. In this organization, bet on the guys that are talented and versatile because they’re in short supply on the big club, and may get fast-tracked.

Cogliano and Brule sitting where they are might be overreactions out of sheer frustration. I’d be inclined to be patient with one of them; I don’t think having two players with an identity crisis on the same line for much of the season helped matters. But we shall see. I’d bet on at least one of them going on to having a long, productive career somewhere. Maybe not in Edmonton.

Pitlick and Lander sit a little higher than I’d like. They have both done reasonably well since being drafted. But as much as we like the idea of Lander (centre that’s defensively responsible and can chip in offensively!) and Pitlick (forward with size, skating ability and two-way play!), they’re on track, but not significantly ahead of it. When you look at what players like Hamilton and Marincin have accomplished since being drafted… they’ve just tracked better than the other two. I think they should be in the same group as a guy like Martindale; performing well enough that an NHL career looks like a reasonable bet, but nothing so far that suggests they’re a sure-thing.

Also, I think at least eight of these players will end up playing a bigger role on a team than Ladislav Smid. (I guarantee that he’ll be a defense first, second pairing guy thata plays with an offensive minded #3 with some flaws in his game)Would not have him quite that high.

Other than that

Can you please explain your criteria for your rankings? Best player. Highest ceiling. Most valuable to the franchise etc.

My simple metric would be the answer to this question "Who would I value more in a trade (without taking contract into consideration).
1- Hall
2- Eberle
3- MPS
4- Gagner
5- Marincin
6- Smid
7- Omark
8- Peckham
9- Petry
10- Hamilton

I think the biggest individual fuck ups on the list are Dubnyk at 18 (twice?), Marincin at 16, and everyone who had Petry at 13+. I think Peckham may be better Dman right now than Smid, but Smid still probably has a higher upside (although the window for advancement seems to get less likely as he gets older and produces basically the same results).

Any ranking is a guess, and those into the stats can make some very informed guesses based on past performance of similar players coming into the NHL who made a career of some sort.

Making a ranking based on – avid hockey fan – experience observing – opinion of what a team needs to be a winner:

1-Hall
2-Gagner (because of NHL experience, although I would trade him because of his speed and his best projections aren’t what I would want as a 1 or 2 centre – too small for 3-4)
3-Petry (full skill set D with speed and size, hen’s teeth)
4-Pitlick (big C with a 2 way game are again hen’s teeth, great CHL season)
5-Eberle (amazing hockey smarts that are already effective in the NHL, and slippery – doesn’t take unnecessary hits which is key for a small guy that plays the boards)
6-Peckham (big, tough, doing it well already)
7-Marincin (killing it CHL, has size, grit, skill – golden)
8-Pajaarvi (blazing speed, size, effort, finish has always been his drawback as top 6)
9-Hartikainen (big player doing well both ways, a spark-plug and leader in OK)
10-Dubnyk (doing it well – stable and good SP in the NHL, our goalie unless a miracle happens)

11-Cogliano- wants to be a top 6 centre without the requisite skill, doesn’t want wing. Is gritty and game
12-Smid- because of injuries but has potential
13-Omark- tiny guys need to prove they have sustain at a high enough level to justify no physical presence – like St Louis
14-Lander- maybe should be up there – to me not clear he translates well to the NHL because of skating and lack of grit for a projected 3-4 centre.
15-Hamilton – not gritty enough for my team on 3-4, not a 1-2 winger, 2 broken collar bones, but a good player.
16-Martindale – previous effort issues, likely to continue through his career
17- Brule – has the skill set and pedigree, somethings wrong, great human

By grit I mean players that have some game, play physically and can fight well. It is the type of deterrent that the team lacks. MacIntyre is nuclear deterrent, can’t be used much. Stortini and Jacques don’t play the role well. There are a lot of nice guys on the Oilers, unfortunately too many, the team is soft and gets taken advantage of because of it.

Some roster spots need to be reserved for players who opponents don’t like to play against and take a physical toll, which is especially important during the playoffs. It’s hard to disrupt a good team’s game plan and systems, and physicality is a part of it, wearing good players down, taking them out of plays. The Oilers don’t do this well now, and the results speak for themselves.

I think Lander is a very good prospect, but on a team with so many centres and possibly 3 top centre spots taken if the plan is for Hall to transition there, Lander isn’t the type of player I would have at 4C.

If someone above him gets moved, or he can pass over Cogliano, Pitlick ( I hope they drafted him to be a centre and not another RW) I might rank him higher in terms of value to the team. I like Lander’s type of game, but at some point the imbalance in the roster needs to be addressed for long term success.

Detroit often gets sighted as an example of a team that does well without gritty players, but I don’t agree. They have tough players, but don’t need to mix it up all the time because they have already set the tone. Datsyuk showed this year he is no wilting flower. For another post regarding the need for effective size I found the average for Wings and Oiler forwards – Detroit averages out at 211, Oilers 203. If you take Mac out who never plays, and the Wings biggest forward (Bertuzzi, who does play) it worse at Wings 210 and Oilers 199.

If the Wings aren’t seen as a tough team. clearly Edmonton has got to do things differently than they are. Role players cost less and are vital. The cap dictates that you can’t ice 4 talented lines or 6 great defensemen (at least not for long), maybe not even 3 skill lines if you have a high end top 6.