Oilers Stock Watch - November
After a remarkable start to the season the Oilers cooled off significantly in November posting a 5-8-1 record. There were two big reasons for the less productive November. The first was injuries (of course it was injuries, this is the Oilers we're talking about). Ryan Whitney, Cam Barker, Andy Sutton, Corey Potter, and Taylor Hall are either currently injured or spent a good portion of the month injured. The second was factor was reality. The 7-2-2 start to the season was very nice but it was pretty unlikely that the Oilers were going to continue get historic goaltending en route to the best season this franchise has had in more than two decades. At some point the Oilers were going to see results more consistent with their skill level and that happened in November.
As of the end of November the Oilers were in tenth place in the Western Conference. Looking up in the standings in a tight Western Conference the Wild sit in first six points ahead of the Oilers, four points behind the Oilers are the 12th place Avalanche. It's a precarious position for the Oilers but it's also a hell of a lot better than being last or second last like the team has been the last two seasons at the end of November.
Like I did last month, with the calendars now flipped to December, I've taken a little time to look back at the month that was and the Oilers who saw their stock rise or fall the most during November.
So that I can wrap this post up on a positive note I’ll start with players that saw the biggest stock drops this month. To build suspense I’ve listed them in reverse order so don’t scroll down or you’ll ruin the surprise.
Magnus Paajarvi - October was a slow month for Paajarvi but November was tougher. While Paajarvi was able to record his first point of the season this month, an assist versus Phoenix, he also spent four games watching from the press box as a healthy scratch and played ten minutes or less four more times. More recently, with the injury to Hall a spot on the Oilers powerplay became available and that hole has been filled more often than not by Ryan Jones rather than Paajarvi who, regardless of the points, is a far more talented player.
Theo Peckham - My October list also included Peckham and November wasn't much kinder to him. The rash of injuries has forced him to take on a bigger role and tougher opponents some nights but even when I factor that in Peckham's play was disappointing last month. Far too often for my likinig Peckham looks lost on the ice, his positioning isn't great, and he's getting beat consistently by competition of all skill levels. All good reasons for him to make this list but his decision to try and start a fight with the Avs Ryan Wilson rather than play the game, a decision that resulted directly in a goal agains the Oilers, would probably have been enough on its own.
Ben Eager - The man meant to bring grit, jam, crust, sandpaper, or something to the Oilers fourth line when he was acquired in the offseason has proven to be quite ineffective at doing even that much so far this season. Limited during the month with a back injury, an injury that is still keeping him out of the line-up, Eager was also a healthy scratch a couple of times as the coaching staff has become frustrated with his listless effort. I have not hidden the fact that I do not like players like Eager (or Darcy Hordichuk) but Eager isn't even living up to my very limited expectations right now. He's not very physical when he does play and he's not all that good at anything else.
All right, enough of the bad, time to move onto the good. Again in reverse order.
Shawn Horcoff - During games I do on occasion still hear some mouth breather shouting to trade Horcoff. I never respond to comments like these and instead just shake my head because what I see out there from Horcoff is consistently amazing. He takes on the opponents toughest line, coupled with brutal zone starts, and comes out near even, or sometimes even ahead, almost every night. He kills penalties. He plays on the powerplay. And he plays a ton of minutes. Last month he played at least 18 minutes in every game except the 9-2 beating of the Blackhawks when the Oilers were able to role four lines almost all night long. He does all of that and still managed to score five goals and five assists last month. Anyone who thinks we should trade him should try watching the game.
Jordan Eberle - The man most often overlooked during the October success of the Chosen Line had his best month as a pro in November. After recording just one assist in the first five games of the month, Eberle came to life with six goals and nine assists in the next nine games. The points alone don't tell the whole story with Eberle. He's making passes and plays that a player with less than 100 games of pro experience just doesn't make. He's got a backhand that might be the best I've seen on the Oilers in a very long time too, a backhand that he put on display twice against the Wild on Wednesday night. He might not be a flashy first overall pick but he's just a hair behind those guys at this point.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Like Peckham, Nugent-Hopkins makes a repeat appearance on the list, albeit in a more positive way, moving up from number three last month to top spot this month. Even the most optimistic Oiler fans were surprised by Nugent-Hopkins' first month as a pro and he was even more impressive in November. After scoring six goals and adding ten assists in November Nugent-Hopkins was named the NHL Rookie of the Month for the second consecutive month and found himself sitting fourth in the NHL in scoring. For a kid who is still more than four months away from his nineteenth birthday I've got to say, that's damn impressive, and that why his stock rose the most in November.
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I’ve really liked his last couple weeks. I’m hoping he’s turned the corner on his season now.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
He’s really just the same Gagner, beating the toughs when he has good linemates.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Dec 7, 2011 3:19 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
As good as Horcoff has played, if someone was willing to take on his contract, I would be talking trade. I can’t see him keeping it up over the remainder of the deal and he is a cap space killer as he ages.
What do you think Horcoff is worth? I understand those that think he’s over paid but I don’t think it’s all that significant. Not considering what he does.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Let’s also not lose sight of the fact the Oilers cap hit this seasonon, according to Capgeek, is $61,887,621. I really want the Oilers to bring in a top flight d-man and his cap hit is a barrier. I have no idea what he is worth on the market, but if the return helped the defence this year or next, I would be interested. You gotta give to get.
But its when you factor His cap hit is $5.5M for 3 seasons AFTER this one. And I cannot see how Horcoff lives up to a $5.5M cap hit in 2013-14 and 2014-15, and with his injury history, maybe not even next year. So, I would like to see him off the books before the Oilers have to pony up for Eberle, Hall and RNH. So, when is it going to be easier to trade him, now while he is playing well, or in a year or two when its as likely, if not more likely, he won’t be?
Since its a long shot that the Oilers aren’t going to make the playoffs anyway, why not now? I think Belanger is capable of stepping up into his role for the rest of this season. Many of the lunitics on the Oilers blogs want to see Gagner back at centre and if not Belanger, moving Horcoff would open a role for Gagner (shudders in anticipation of team face-off percentage cratering). As nice as the early run was, this still isn’t a play-off team and the Oil should be thinking strategically.
My question is… at a 5.5 mill cap hit, how much is Shawn Horcoff worth to other teams? Eg. does he even have a trade value out there. The only trade I think they could make would be a salary swap… but I doubt we’d get first rounders or good young prospects for him. He’s a fantastic player and all but he’s not worth 5.5 mil. As far as a deep playoff run and adding a 2 way veteran who can contribute.. the problem is that any team that is a contender for the cup is already tight against the cap as it is and can’t afford to add 5.5 mil for a guy that would be on their 2nd or 3rd line. For instance, do you think Pittsburgh could use him? Washington could but can’t afford him and he’d be centre number 3, Chicago can’t afford him, Philly? San Jose? I honestly think he has very little trade value…
Detroit, Chicago, NJ, Minny, STL, are contenders that could and there are the looney GMs in FLA, and NYI all have the space to take on his contract. Not saying you wouldn’t have to take a contract back, but if that contract coming back was a 3/4 defenceman, I would do the deal.
He’d be the 4th best centre in Detroit. He’d be the 3rd best centre in Chicago. Not sure if I’m considering NJ a cup contender. I’m positive Minny isn’t a cup contender. STL – cup contender? FLA and NYI definitely aren’t.
So, to be clear, if you were a Detroit, Chicago and maybe STL/NJ fan you’d be thrilled if they brought in Shawn Horcoff to be a 3rd (or 4th) line centre for 3 more years at 5.5 mil per?
Chicago has Toews for a first line centre, and Bolland for 3rd line. Kane is back on the wing. They have no second line centre, per Matheson. Horcoff would slide right in there. Why wouldn’t I like that, unless you disagree that Horcoff is the real deal this year?
In Detroit if I could shift Filppula to the wing and put him between Filppula and Hudler, again, what’s not to like, especially if he can get Hudler going?
In St. Louis and NJ they want/need to make the playoffs, and acquiring Horcoff would give both teams’ playoff hopes a boost if he plays there like he has here. Once your in, anything can happen.
Your perception, from your comment, appears to be that Horcoff isn’t the real deal. Ryan believes he is. If the GM you want to trade with looks at Horcoff with Ryan’s viewpoint in mind, a deal is possible. If the GM looks from your viewpoint, its not. But there are 29 other GMs in this league, and I would be shocked if you couldn’t find 2 or 3 that would agree with Ryan. And you only need one to make a deal.
Tallon and Snow are each a little crazy. Never said they were contenders. Just said they might deal because of who they are.
Part of that 61 mil is also 2.4 mil in buyout money to Souray, 6.2 mil on Smyth and having 9 defensemen on the Roster because of injuries.
Souray’s Buyout money comes off the books after next season.
The Oilers acquired Smyth because he was cheap to acquire in assets, had a low salary and they could easily fit him under the cap. You have to think he’ll make less than 6.25 mil in cap hit next season (if he’s back).
The Oilers aren’t in a position to use LTIR cap space this year, but if they were a cap team they’d have an additional $2.8 mil or so in space to use because of Barker & Potter’s injuries.
That doesn’t even factor in the ~ $1.7 mil paid to Hordichuk and Petrell who could be replaced for much cheaper.
The key number to look at is the $37 mil they have on for next season with Smyth, Hemsky, Gagner and Dubnyk to sign, along with some defensemen and a couple of new 4th liners and keeping space open for the year after when the ELC’s for Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi expire.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
That $61M also includes over $7M in performance bonuses that have to accounted for this year because of the CBA expiry date.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
The only get LTIR for the percentage of the season or games or whatever x $2.8M, not the full $2.8.
If Smyth gets 60-65 points, how much money do you think he is going to sign for?
I would assume he’ll look for $4.5 to $5M, plus $5.5 for Hemsky (our markov contract), flat for gagner and a small raise for Dubby, you are looking at ~$15M. However, if either of the latter two take off the rest of the season , that number could be pushed up. So, $37M + 15M = $52M with 3 defencemen and a 4th line to sign and only say, $12-14M of space to do it with. You’re not going after Suter, Wideman, Carle, or maybe even Grossman with that amount of cap space. You’re bargain shopping or hoping Petry and Teubert make BIG leaps.
Yes, you get whatever time they miss. So in Barkers case it’s 3 months with is ~40% of his cap hit.
If Smyth wants his retirement contract in Edmonton (2+ years) it’s got to be for under $4mil. I love Smytty but it’s amazing he’s lasted as long as he has already.
In terms of being able to sign a marquee defenseman + 2 more blueliners and 3 4th line F, $12-14 mil should be more than adequate providing you sign bargain players.
There are always a bunch of veteran UFA defensemen who hang around for a while that can be had relatively cheaply (i.e. Hannan). Your 4th line should be paid like they are playing 5-8 minutes per game (i.e. less than $2mil combined). That is $4 of $14 mil leaving $10 mil left.
There’s plenty of space providing management smartens up an doesn’t spend $2+mil on guys like Barker, $1mil on Eager and $900k on Hordichuk.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
I hope they do a Selanne type arrangement with Smyth and go year to year, but I expect they will sign him for a little bit too much for a little bit too long. Gotta be careful with the over 35 contracts.
Not sure I would want to gamble on a Hannan being around in a pivotal year like next year.
From metheson at the Journal:
“The Patrick Kane at centre experiment in Chicago didn’t blow up in anybody’s face, but the Blackhawks have Kane back on the wing, which means they’re back to looking for a No. 2 centre because Dave Bolland is really the perfect No. 3 guy and Patrick Sharp is a winger, not a centre.”
If you could get Niklas Hjalmarsson or Nick Leddy, and Mark McNeill for Horcoff and Peckham, you wouldn’t do it?
I don’t mean Hannan as in he’s the guy to get (though he’s been pretty good in Calgary this year), but rather a decent veteran defenseman who can play in your lineup for not a lot of coin.
Keep in mind if the Oilers trade Horcoff they have to replace him. It took them 4 years to replace Kyle Brodziak.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
i didn’t mean hannan specifically either. just that its a big risk to expect someone of his stature to be around in the bargain bin. btw – i had heard hannan hadn’t played great this year.
my view is the centres are RNH – Gagner – Belanger – Lander (or replacement) and horcoff gets traded, or RNH – horcoff – belanger – lander and gagner gets traded. or gagner goes to the wing and hemsky gets traded. i don’t much care which, but i want someone dealt for a decent defenceman.
Realistically Belanger is a fourth line centre and nothing more. He’s a good faceoff man, can play well in a shut down role, and can kill penalties but he’s two giant steps back from Horcoff.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I think that is selling him short.
He’s struggled offensively this year, but he’s a legitimate 3rd line centre, has been for most of his career.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
It probably does sell him a bit short, but at this point of his career 3C is where he maxes out. He certainly couldn’t be expected to fill in for Horcoff.
Also in my world where he’s a 4C the Oilers ice a fourth line that includes hockey players not goons. So in that way the fourth line isn’t as bad as it may otherwise seem. Would be capable of taking on 8-10 minutes a night and not get owned. It would be glorious.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I get what you’re saying but how bad would the team be without him, last place or something? ;)
Man do we need some centres to develop. Yes RNH has been killing it but he’s not carrying weight yet.
Calgary did some nice pre-game playbooking on RNH and it showed. As more tape of him becomes available his ability to “kill it” is going to be diminished. No doubt he’s a fabulous talent, but his advantage has been that he’s still a bit of an unknown. On top of which, Hall being out allows teams to focus on RNH and Eberle, because let’s face it, we don’t have much pop elsewhere. Obviously building a decent third scoring line would seem to be a priority. I think Sam could the key component in that mix, but for the love of god not with Belanger “The Line Slayer”.
To be honest, there’s plenty of video to show what he’s trying to do on the PP. He’s been doing the same thing since basically game 1 of the season.
I know that sometimes you want to play your own game and your own system on the PK, but at some point you have to realize that certain teams do things a certain way so you have to adjust to that.
The benefit for the Oilers is that they don’t play many teams who are going to bother practising just for them, but come playoff time that’s something a good coach will focus on.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
Realistically, it takes historic failures for most coaches to change tactics. I doubt this power play changes at all unless it goes into the tank completely.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Dec 7, 2011 3:22 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
See how long we stayed with the diamond for an example of how long a coach will stick with a no win strategy.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Anyone who thinks we should trade him should try watching the game.
I bet that felt awfully satisfying to type, didn’t it?
by Passive Voice on Dec 4, 2011 11:01 PM MST reply actions 2 recs
I did enjoy it a little.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I dunno, I think $5.5 MM is a lot for a guy who “only” plays first line/tough minutes, major roles on both special teams, and routinely over 20 minutes a night. I mean you ought to be able to pick a guy like that off the pile in August, right?
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 5, 2011 11:13 AM MST up reply actions
Long term answer is he probably doesn’t fit. The Oilers could certainly play him in the 3C spot for this year and one more though and then move him out.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Over belanger this year and Lander next year? Interesting. Seems to me there is a collision next year between the 3 players.
Competition for roster spots and some depth, that doesn’t sound all bad.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
None of the players you mention are capable of filling the role he plays.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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