Every Wrong Attempt Discarded Is Another Step Forward
by Scott Reynolds on Dec 11, 2011 12:11 AM MST
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The Oilers came to Calgary for the second of back-to-back games for the third time in three meetings, and will leave Calgary with no points to show for their efforts yet again. Effort, of course, probably wasn't the problem, but this certainly wasn't the best game that the team has played. The Oilers were outshot 34-21 overall, and 22-11 while the game was tied, and I'll be very surprised indeed if Dennis King ends up telling us that the Oilers reached double digits in scoring chances.
Some of the problems came behind the bench. Magnus Paajarvi was a healthy scratch in order to get Darcy Hordichuk into the lineup, which is a poor decision no matter what, but even poorer when you've got Ben Eager in the lineup to provide whatever it is that goons are supposed to provide already.
The bench coaching also wasn't close to as diligent as it had been the night before. Last night, Smyth, Horcoff, and Hemsky were entrusted with a heavy load, while the kids were let loose in the offensive zone. Tonight, things were much more egalitarian. There was even one instance in which Tom Renney decided to go with Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Gagner for a DZ draw after a commercial break. Of course, Brent Sutter took that opportunity to get Jarome Iginla on the ice, a match-up that he was able to get for most of the game, something that would be easier to forgive if Horcoff didn't have the easiest end-zone start differential and Gagner the toughest.
But nothing describes how the night went better than the signature too-many-men penalty with five minutes to go, and Tom Renney's subsequent thinking-but-not-really-thinking decision to have Darcy Hordichuk serve the minor - I know he'd be my pick to join a rush coming out of the box. Jeepers. Some observations on specific plays and players after the jump.
Notes from the First Period:
- Just so Derek isn't the only one here banging this drum, Ryan Whitney is looking awfully slow, and it's a problem all over the ice. It obviously doesn't help him get into the play offensively, but it also hampers his game defensively, especially since he's not used to it. At least with a guy like Andy Sutton, he knows his limitations. Right now, Whitney doesn't.
- Ladislav Smid has developed into a really calm defenseman. There was one play in the middle of the period where Smid grabbed the puck in the high slot in the middle of a scramble and skated back into the corner before playing it off the glass and out. A really nice play to relieve the pressure when that's exactly what was needed.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a long way to go in the defensive zone, but one thing that will help is his ability to think the game. At about the mid-point of the period he was stripped of the puck in the corner, but followed that play by marking a different player on his way to the net and denying that player access to the puck. His ability to process information quickly as situations change is so valuable, and with more experience, I'm confident that he'll excellent in the defensive zone.
- After Shawn Horcoff missed a pass from Ryan Smyth on a two-on-one, the play moved quickly the other way three-on-two. Horcoff came back as hard to even things out, but seemed to get a bit confused with the defenders on which guy to take and the Flames ended up with a nice chance. Still, I think Horcoff deserves credit on the play rather than scorn. If Smyth comes back hard too, there's no problem on the backcheck.
- In his first shift of the period, Ladislav Smid showed why he's a really good defensive defensemen. Most of the guys with that moniker really struggle to make quick decisions with the puck, but Smid doesn't. The puck came back to him three or four times in the same sequence and he made quick and varied decisions. When it was a pass, it was on the tape.
- I like the third line. With guys like Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the team has a lot of players looking to make things pretty. (That's not a complaint; they often succeed.) This third line doesn't do it. The game plan is simple and consistent. You get it deep and you get it to the net. They earned a couple of chances doing just that.
- Proof that Tom Renney doesn't believe in all traditional hockey wisdom: after Tom Kostopoulos scored (on the power play! Tom Kostopoulos!), Renney put the fourth line out for the all-important "shift after the goal". They got absolutely smoked.
- Speaking of traditional hockey wisdom, the relationship between drawing penalties and diving is crazy. Drawing penalties is good, which is why Iginla gave out high-fives when he was "tripped" near the end of the second period. Diving, however, is bad, which is why he decided to give Eric Belanger a face-full-of-glove for what he thought was a dive in the first. Which isn't to say Iginla is a bad player. He showed tremendous smarts by finding the soft spot above the slot on Calgary's second goal, and executed perfectly when he got the pass.
- During the first shift of the third period, Brendan Morrison beat Ryan Whitney to the inside and managed to get a backhand on net from the slot. Whitney seems like a great guy, so I'm hoping for his sake as much as the team's that his play this year isn't the new normal.
- The Oilers weren't getting things done, so Tom Renney decided to mix up the lines, and ended up with Ben Eager playing alongside Eric Belanger and Ales Hemsky. For me, that's got to be one of the weirdest combinations of the season.
- After Hemsky got back with Smyth and Horcoff, he had his best shift of the game. Not much came of it (in fact, he was eventually the cause of the puck leaving the zone), but he had the puck on his stick and was working to create offense. But that shift was about it from him. The CBC boys were jabbing him all night, and that often results in a tendency to look to look for the opposite of what they're saying, and while I've generally liked Hemsky's game this year, I don't think he was very good tonight.
- With five minutes to go, Theo Peckham was under no pressure and made a terrible giveaway that led to a near-breakaway, but his partner bailed him out. I feel like Peckham gives us one of those every game.
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It sounds like a game that you might almost have expected in the circumstances – will be interesting to see the scoring chances also
Did I see somewhere Smid injured – hope not – especially not after the write up above …
by southampton viking on Dec 11, 2011 12:25 AM MST reply actions
Suppose it depends on what you mean by injured. He took a gruesome stick to the mouth that no doubt required some extensive repairs, but he came back later in the game.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Dec 11, 2011 12:50 AM MST up reply actions
I’m doing the scoring chances for this game, but my cable was out (thankfully???) until there was about 5 minutes left in the 2nd.
I’ll do them on Monday once I’m past the 48 hour blackout on Gamecenter.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
Great write-up, Scott!
Magnus Paajarvi was a healthy scratch in order to get Darcy Hordichuk into the lineup
The Paajarvi situation is a bit galling. I’d like to see the Oilers either say “he’s just going through a bad patch, nothing wrong with him” and then give them the time and linemates to get out of that slump, or say "there is something really wrong here’ and then send him to the AHL to work on fixing his game. This muddling around in the middle – “ok, today’s he’s a healthy scratch, tomorrow he’ll play, but only 8 minutes or so with the scrubs” – does neither the player nor the team any good.
Ladislav Smid has more points than Paajarvi… so does Petrell… I’m a huge fan but I think it is fair to say there is a big problem.
Yeah, bad luck. Which doesn’t change from the press box.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Send him to Oklahoma then, yes he’s better than at least 4 forwards, but limited playing time with the dregs isn’t going to help him either.
The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!
Funny, Paajarvi might actually have better line mates playing in OKC.
The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!
by OilLeak on Dec 11, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
More likely to learn bad defensively habits cheating for offence down in OKC.
Once offence doesn’t improve going against inferior competition, because what works against inferior competition often doesn’t work against superior competition, the exact inverse of learning to be defensively responsible.
One learns defence in the minors; one learns offence in the pros.
Paajarvi is an unusual prospect in that he is defensively responsible, but struggling on offence.
So the right thing to do is to play him more at the NHL level.
Why do you think this is true? I can’t think of any reason why it would be. I also know of no evidence to suggest that it is true.
It sounds like something completely made up based upon an irrational understanding of hockey.
by Captain Obvious II on Dec 11, 2011 3:45 PM MST up reply actions
You are punishing what Paajarvi does well by sending him down. What you are telling him is that only goals and assists matter and that he should cheat for offence.
Paajarvi “weakness” is learning how to generate offence against NHL defenders. There aren’t any NHL defenders down in the AHL to improve that skill. They are in the NHL.
What the team should do is define a role for him at the NHL level utilizing his strengths, and then build upon that role. Unless one has clearly better players (which the Oilers don’t), there is no reason to send a 20-year old big speedy winger who is defensively responsible to the minors.
Build on what he is good at, defensive awareness, and lugging the puck. Paajarvi and Lander could make the foundation of one of the best 4th lines in the league. Teach Paajarvi to penalty kill.
Paajarvi would be MacT’s dream prospect. A 20-year old who cheats for defence instead of for offence. Mike Keenan would attempt to break Paajarvi…play him till he dropped. He would make him or break him in 6 months, just like he did with Jokinen.
Renney clearly has no clue with Paajarvi. He won’t give him an obvious role.
Start simple 4th line and PK. Forget about goals and assists. Work the guys’s strengths as a player to build his confidence as a player, and go step by step.
Paajarvi has all the ingredients to be a truly elite shutdown/matchup winger…size, speed, fitness, puck-carrying ability, and defensive awareness.
Paajarvi has all the ingredients to be a truly elite shutdown/matchup winger…size, speed, fitness, puck-carrying ability, and defensive awareness.
Don’t forget the ability to generate his own shots and the propensity to shoot.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I can see what you’re getting at, godot10, but if it’s a matter of confidence for Paajarvi, then a stint against inferior opposition might actually help him out when it comes time for him to face the top guys again. As far as the fear of him learning bad habits is concerned, I’m not too worried. There seems to be a decent coaching staff in OKC, and Paajarvi puts a lot of effort into being responsible defensively.
So the right thing to do is to play him more at the NHL level.
I don’t disagree with this. As I mentioned above, my problem is that they’re neither sending him out nor giving him proper opportunities in the NHL.
I don’t think bad luck is causing him to be ahead of only Belanger and the 4th liners in scoring chances created. He’s not a good offensive player right now. He still hasn’t figured out how to play on the small ice and where the front of the net is or that driving wide and bad angle shots are not always the best option.
When I think “bad luck” I think posts, unconscious saves, unlucky bounces. When I think of Paajarvi those aren’t the images that come to mind. A whole lot of nights he hasn’t come remotely close to generating actually dangerous offence.
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 11, 2011 6:25 PM MST up reply actions
I think his main issue is a classic prospect trap. He has such a terrific combination of size and speed that he could dominate his peers just with that and never developed his offensive awareness or puck skills to a higher level. You can look at Rico Fata and Steve Kelly as the worst case scenarios for players such as this. He won’t end up like them but there is a small possibility of him ending up as a Taylor Pyatt. More likely, he might peak as a 50 point player in his prime like a David Legwand.
David Legwand is a pretty good player, so I’d be both surprised and thrilled with an eventual outcome like that, but I’m not sure why you’d figure Paajarvi got overconfident (or whatever) from success against his peers since he was playing in the Swedish Elite League at 16 years old. Seems to me he didn’t spend that much time actually playing against his peers.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Dec 11, 2011 9:11 PM MST up reply actions
I don’t think it’s hubris, he just didn’t develop what he didn’t need to succeed. There’s still a lot of minor hockey that happened before his stint in the SEL. And even watching him the year after he was drafted, his success offensively playing with the pros relied on his outside speed on that big ice, as the defenceman just couldn’t handle him if he got a step. My point was more that he could succeed with only a couple of elite skills, and that continued in the SEL, and that won’t work in the NHL.
I think Legwand’s a good player as well and I’ll be satisfied if averages 50 points a year in his prime, which is why I mentioned him. But I’m betting that the vast majority of fans have higher expectations of him on the scoresheet.
So how is playing against slower less skilled defensemen in the AHL supposed to help? It won’t.
Hartikainen, Lander, and Paajarvi should be the Oilers 4th line. Both Lander and Paajarvi are defensively aware, compensating for Hartikainen’s “weakness” in this area. Paajarvi’s skating and puck-lugging abilities will drive the puck up the ice to where Lander and Hartikainen better finishing skills can be put to good use. Hartikainen will dire the puck into the danger areas near the net, “forcing” Paajarvi there, much like Omark did.
The Oilers aren’t likely to make the playoffs, so as soon as Hartikainen gets his legs and scoring back in OKC, he should finish the season in the NHL on the 4th line with the two Swedes. And Paajarvi should be trained to PK, so he will be up to the task next year, eliminating the need for Petrell on the roster.
When you are struggling at anything that involves skill it is always better to perfect the skill at a slower speed before advancing to the next level. This is true about guitar, this is true about video games, this is true about baseball. This is true.
Again, I see no reason why offense can’t be learned at the AHL. Indeed, it seems to me that it may be the best place for it to be learned. Moreover, I see no reason to suggest that it doesn’t translate to the NHL since almost every player who scores in the AHL also scores in the NHL.
For what you are saying to be true the AHL would have to be different in kind not degree. But there is simply no reason to believe this is the case.
by Captain Obvious II on Dec 12, 2011 10:37 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
One can learn defence at a lower level because it is mostly about learning positional awareness which can be learned against inferior opposition.
Offense cannot be learned against inferior opposition. Only bad offensive habits, stuff that won’t work against NHL defenders, because one is going against inferior opposition.
There is absolutely no reason to send a defensively responsible player to a lower league, unless one has better players, and Paajarvi is clearly not close to the worst forward on the NHL roster.
I don’t think that’s true at all.
Sometimes offensively speaking it’s because the game moves too fast and you don’t really get to assess the time and space you have.
For instance, at the NHL level you may get the puck and only have 0.5 seconds to chip it off the boards and skate to pick it back up. In the AHL you might have more time to see that play and recognize that it will be there no matter who you play against.
Outside of actual skiil, offense is mostly timing and space awareness. You can learn that at lower levels. We know this to be true because everyone starts at a lower level.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
Exactly.
That last line is an argument crusher. If offense couldn’t be learned against “inferior” opposition there would be no way for it to be learned at all.
by Captain Obvious II on Dec 12, 2011 3:44 PM MST up reply actions
One thing that can counteract that is receiving the puck at full speed. During the last 20 or so games last year, Paajarvi always seemed to get the puck while he was skating at full stride, which gave the opposition all sorts of headaches.
This year he seems to be getting the puck at a standstill all the time and it’s allowing the opposition to close him off.
His greatest asset is something he hasn’t been able to use at all this year and it’s hurting his offensive game.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
Do you put that on Magnus himself not moving his feet, or his teammates putting passes in his feet?
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 12, 2011 1:23 PM MST up reply actions
It’s hard to tell on TV (whether he’s not moving his feet enough). But the end plays often result in him receiving a pass while he’s standing still, instead of at full speed.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
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