How Are Ladislav Smid And Theo Peckham Just Like Adam Foote And Scott Hannan?
One of my favorite numbers from the last few years is .935. That's the number of shots taken per sixty minutes of time on ice taken by Jason Strudwick in 2009-10. It's the lowest number in the league since 1998.
Strudwick's 2009-2010 shot rates are the lowest in the the league since 1998. He failed to put one shot on goal per sixty minutes of ice time. Strudwick's 1999 season is fifth on the list at 1.1 per sixty.
The Oilers' difficulty in getting pucks on net got me thinking about Strudwick's struggles (he owns two of the five lowest seasons since 1998) and two other players who struggled that season how similar players might be impacting the Oilers this season.
Strudwick wasn't alone this year though - Adam Foote from the Colorado Avalanche managed just 1.2 shots per sixty, the seventh-worst rate in the league since 1998. The Avs also had Scott Hannan at 1.8 shots per sixty, among the fifty worst rates in the league since '98. Want to build a foundation of a team that gets historically outshot? Start with two defensemen that don't shoot the puck.
Foote and Hannan played for the 2009-10 Avs, a team that was outshot on a consistent basis, and one that I've discussed recently. The two played significant minutes in combination with a group of young forwards who struggled with possession for the Avalanche that season and contributed in large part to the team's shooting woes .
The Oilers have their own Foote and Hannan this season -- Ladislav Smid and Theo Peckham
25 games into the season, Theo Peckham has 9 shots on goal, Ladislav Smid has 12. But it's not games played that gives us the accurate measurement - time on ice is the number we're interested in.
| Player | S | S/60 |
| Theo Peckham | 9 | 1.56 |
| Ladislav Smid | 12 | 1.36 |
Shots per 60 places Peckham's pace in the 40 worst seasons since 1998. Smid is much worse - he's on pace for the 15th-worst season since 1998. One defense-only defender on the back end is typical, two can lead to issues, like the Avs of two years ago.
To put their numbers in perspective, we can compare their shot rates to other Edmonton defenders.
| Player | S | S/60 |
| Cam Barker | 21 | 5.24 |
| Corey Potter | 27 | 5.04 |
| Jeff Petry | 26 | 4.39 |
| Andy Sutton | 12 | 3.41 |
| Tom Gilbert | 34 | 3.30 |
| D Average |
98 | 3.23 |
| Theo Peckham | 9 | 1.56 |
| Ladislav Smid | 12 | 1.36 |
Cam Barker, Corey Potter and Jeff Petry shoot three times as often or more than Peckham or Smid. Every other defender on the team shoots twice as often. In fact, Peckham and Smid drag the average down so far, they're the only two regulars under the defensive corps average.
Cam Barker and Corey Potter look great in comparison to their teammates by this measure, but they get more power play time. Breaking this down by even strength minutes shows a different story.
| Player | ES S | ES MISS | ES S/60 | ES ATT/60 |
| Corey Potter | 19 | 6 | 4.59 | 6.04 |
| Andy Sutton | 11 | 3 | 3.80 | 4.83 |
| Jeff Petry | 17 | 9 | 3.65 | 5.58 |
| Tom Gilbert | 21 | 11 | 2.87 | 4.38 |
| D Average |
90 | 41 | 2.67 | 3.88 |
| Cam Barker | 5 | 5 | 1.60 | 3.21 |
| Ladislav Smid | 11 | 4 | 1.59 | 2.16 |
| Theo Peckham | 6 | 3 | 1.29 | 1.93 |
Potter leads the team in both shots and attempts at even strength, but Barker falls down to Smidian levels without the man advantage, giving the Oilers three defensemen who aren't generating shots on goal.
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Not to nitpick or anything, but the article mentions several times “since 1988”, yet the initial link (and italicized quote) and the data are all “since 1998”.
A 10 year difference really skews the perspective. Just sayin
Insert Witty Comment Here
I stand in awe of the Smidian Threshold, much as I mourn the voyage of Theo Peckham who has sunk deep into it’s icy waters.
We know Gilbert is taking care of all of the exits, so Smid rarely has the puck outside of the defensive zone.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Are shot rates the sort of thing that players can improve dramatically over time? Or is shooting/not shooting something that gets so ingrained in a player’s style that we can be pretty confident Smid won’t ever start producing any offense?
Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.
Our buddy Eric T. at BSH did a forward study:
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/9/7/2407875/do-young-forwards-shoot-more-as-they-mature
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Looks like not so much, then. I suppose that’s not all bad news; Smid has turned out to be a pleasant surprise as a shutdown defender this year, and he’s a UFA after next season. If his offensive numbers aren’t going to increase, that opens the door to the Oilers potentially getting a bargain on a top-four d-man.
Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.
by Ben Johnston on Dec 1, 2011 10:36 PM MST up reply actions
But this means he’s only a top 4 dman in a very narrow view. He needs Gilbert or grown-up Petry to be effective.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Didn’t Derek Boogard (RIP) take less than 10 shots one season in minny? are you only counting dmen, or is there a minimum games considered
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Dec 1, 2011 10:17 PM MST reply actions
The original study had nothing but goons because I only used GP.
As soon as TOI is the denominator, the goons are gone.
Forwards only is on my list of things to do.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If their defensive partner is shooting above the league average, and has a better shot, then Theo and Ladi are just playing to the teams strengths. That’s a good thing – right?
by edwards_daddy on Dec 1, 2011 11:37 PM MST via mobile reply actions
You still need to open that option up by occasionally getting your own shot on net though.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
For more perspective, the average ESS/60 for defense was 3.645 last year. It’s been increasing over the last 4 years.
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