Edmonton's Home/Road Scoring Chance Splits

by Derek Zona on Nov 27, 2011 11:30 AM MST in Analysis

The early and overwhelming team storyline for the Edmonton Oilers 1/4 of the way through the season is the team's struggles away from Rexall Place. The difference between home and road play has created enough material for a year's worth of "home cooking" puns for Gene Principe. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' road woes have been well-documented, but he's not alone. In fact, outside of the team's veteran core, the entire team has been in deep away from home this season, as evidenced by the scoring chances thus far:

Team	SCF	SCA	SC%
Home	116	96	0.547
Road	130	166	0.439
Overall	246	262	0.484

They've performed like the Capitals at home, and like a worse version of the 10-11 Oilers on the road.

The home splits are jaw-dropping, led by the rookie:

#	Player	HSC	HSCA	HSC%
93	Ryan Hopkins	55	29	0.655
14	Jordan Eberle	50	27	0.649
4	Taylor Hall	51	31	0.622
91	Magnus Paajarvi	21	15	0.583
55	Ben Eager	10	8	0.556
	Team	116	96	0.547
83	Ales Hemsky	13	11	0.542
89	Sam Gagner	15	14	0.517
28	Ryan Jones	26	26	0.500
94	Ryan Smyth	35	36	0.493
20	Eric Belanger	16	18	0.471
10	Shawn Horcoff	31	39	0.443
37	Lennart Petrell	8	11	0.421
57	Anton Lander	10	14	0.417

Only the much-maligned fourth line and Shawn Horcoff, he of the 33% offensive zonestart, aren't breaking even or better. The defense, actually part of the defense, looks great at home as well:

#	Player	HSC	HSCA	HSC%
44	Corey Potter	36	21	0.632
58	Jeff Petry	27	16	0.628
5	Ladislav Smid	46	29	0.613
77	Tom Gilbert	44	35	0.557
	Team	116	96	0.547
13	Cam Barker	21	24	0.467
25	Andy Sutton	15	21	0.417
24	Theo Peckham	18	32	0.360

Peckham's .360 is not a fluke, as he's struggled to find any part of his game this season.

As good as the team has been at home, things are just as bad on the road:

#	Player	RSC	RSCA	RSC%
57	Anton Lander	19	18	0.514
83	Ales Hemsky	36	35	0.507
91	Magnus Paajarvi	16	16	0.500
10	Shawn Horcoff	54	57	0.486
94	Ryan Smyth	54	61	0.470
4	Taylor Hall	37	44	0.457
89	Sam Gagner	22	28	0.440
	Team	130	166	0.439
93	Ryan Hopkins	35	46	0.432
28	Ryan Jones	31	41	0.431
14	Jordan Eberle	39	57	0.406
20	Eric Belanger	26	41	0.388
55	Ben Eager	10	17	0.370
37	Lennart Petrell	12	22	0.353

WIthout the protection Tom Renney can provide at home, Hopkins drops 22 percentage points and Eberle drops 24 points. Horcoff, even with the burden of defensive zonestarts, has performed well. Hemsky's road trip was the best among the Oilers.

The defense hasn't been as lucky. The combination of injuries and a long road trip have been too much to overcome.

#	Player	RSC	RSCA	RSC%
77	Tom Gilbert	50	56	0.472
24	Theo Peckham	36	41	0.468
5	Ladislav Smid	49	60	0.450
	Team	130	166	0.439
58	Jeff Petry	36	46	0.439
25	Andy Sutton	13	19	0.406
44	Corey Potter	24	41	0.369
13	Cam Barker	12	24	0.333

Tom Gilbert's play has been stellar, Norris-worthy in fact, and he's led the team on the road, even with the tough quality of competition he's faced. Cam Barker's play has been nothing short of terrible and Corey Potter drops 26 percentage points on the road.

As always, thanks to Dennis King for tracking the Oilers' scoring chances.

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Comments

As much flak as Paajarvi’s taken for his offensive struggles, it’s encouraging to see he’s not giving much back the other way. Especially since he’s spent much of the year playing with less than stellar linemates.

by melancholyculkin on Nov 27, 2011 12:26 PM MST reply actions

MPS also has the worst zonestart of the rookies/sophomores; I think he’s doing fine. If the points don’t come, he’s at least on pace to be a pretty useful player.

by sarcasticidealist on Nov 27, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions

The next article highlights this.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 27, 2011 5:55 PM MST up reply actions

Also, is the sample size large enough to learn anything from WOWY analysis yet? Or is it better to wait until the 35-40 game mark?

by melancholyculkin on Nov 27, 2011 12:28 PM MST reply actions

Still way too early

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 27, 2011 5:54 PM MST up reply actions

The road numbers are worrying, but there is one point that’s worth noting. Of the Oilers’ 13 road games, 5 have been the second of back-to-back games. By comparison, the team has yet to play the second of back-to-back games at home.

The team is 2-3 in those games, and two of them were arguably among the worst games the team has played this year: last night against Colorado and the 3-0 blanking by Detroit on Nov 11 (to be fair, the 6-2 drubbing of Nashville on Nov 22 was also one of these games).

Not to say that’s an excuse for the disappointing scoring chance numbers, but 5/13 is a statistically significant sample. I’d be curious to see how the road scoring chances changed with those 5 games omitted.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Nov 27, 2011 10:27 PM MST reply actions

Should we also remove the 3 away games where they had 2 or more days of rest?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 28, 2011 3:01 PM MST up reply actions

Oops, reply fail. See below.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Nov 28, 2011 4:38 PM MST up reply actions

No, for two reasons:

(1) My impression has always been that playing on 0 days of rest puts a team at a more significant disadvantage than the advantage that 2+ days of rest gives a team.

(2) By my count, they’ve had 4 away games with 2+ days of rest and 3 home games with 2+ days of rest. That makes the home and away schedules roughly equivalent in that regard.

Bear in mind that I’m not arguing the Oilers aren’t worse on the road than they are at home. I am saying that the road schedule has been more difficult than the home schedule to date, positing that as a contributing factor to their difficulties, and predicting that as the schedule evens out over time, the home scoring chance numbers will get a little worse while the road scoring chance numbers will improve a little.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Nov 28, 2011 4:38 PM MST reply actions

Seems to me that, without much evidence, you’re trying to eliminate the team’s worst games to get a “true” picture of their talent. That doesn’t make much sense to me.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 28, 2011 6:28 PM MST up reply actions

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Oilers Schedule

Last 5 Games

@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sat 04/07	L 0 - 3
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Thu 04/05	OT - L 2 - 3
@ Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Mon 04/02	L 0 - 2
@ Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Sun 04/01	W 2 - 1
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Fri 03/30	L 1 - 4

Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (27-11, .711)
St. Louis Blues (24-10, .706)
Vancouver Canucks (22-10, .688)
Los Angeles Kings (18-11, .621)
San Jose Sharks (18-13, .581)
Phoenix Coyotes (20-15, .571)
Nashville Predators (18-14, .563)
Chicago Blackhawks (21-19, .525)
Colorado Avalanche (16-19, .457)
Dallas Stars (18-22, .450)
Anaheim Ducks (14-19, .424)
Edmonton Oilers (18-25, .419)
Calgary Flames (13-21, .382)
Columbus Blue Jackets (14-31, .311)
Minnesota Wild (8-22,.267)

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (31-13, .711)
Boston Bruins (27-11, .711)
New York Rangers (25-16, .610)
Philadelphia Flyers (21-17, .553)
New Jersey Devils (18-16, .529)
Ottawa Senators (19-17, .528)
Washington Capitals (20-19, .513)
Montreal Canadiens (16-19, .457)
Winnipeg Jets (15-19, .441)
Buffalo Sabres (14-18, .438)
Carolina Hurricanes (13-17, .433)
Florida Panthers (14-19, .424)
Toronto Maple Leafs (17-24, .415)
New York Islanders (8-23, .258)
Tampa Bay Lightning (10-30, .250)

Division Standings

Central (79-58, .577)
Atlantic (68-50, .576)
Pacific (62-54, .534)
Northeast (69-65, .515)
Northwest (49-69, .415)
Southeast (51-81, .386)

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