A Cure For What Ails Paajarvi

by ryanbatty on Nov 16, 2011 6:34 AM MST in Opinion

Magnus Paajarvi is struggling right now. The fans know it. The hosts of local radio shows know it. Based on his being a healthy scratch twice on the recent road trip and playing less than nine minutes in the two games that followed it would appear that the team’s coaching staff knows it. And with just a single point, a second assist against the Coyotes, in 15 games this season I think it’s a safe bet to assume that Paajarvi knows it too.

After scoring 15 goals and adding 19 assists as a rookie last season the team was expecting a whole lot more from Paajarvi that they’re currently getting. Last season’s H.O.P.E. seems to be a distance memory right now with Linus Omark playing in Oklahoma City after starting the season in Edmonton but failing to register a point in five games and Paajarvi’s looking like a shell of his rookie self. So what do the Oilers do to get Paajarvi back on track?

To answer that question we need to first understand why Paajarvi is struggling. Clearly the puck isn’t going in and a big part of that might be a lack of shots. Last season Paajarvi averaged 2.25 shots per game; this season he’s down to 1.73. A decent drop off but it’s also worth pointing out that Paajarvi’s most successful part of last season was driven by a much higher shot rate than his season average. 95 games into his career it would seem that when Paajarvi is shooting the puck he’s playing well; when he’s not shooting, well you’ve seen the results.

So why then is Paajarvi shooting less? It's possible that he's simply forgotten how but more likely the players he’s being asked to play with are a big reason for that change. The offseason additions of Ryan Smyth and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins filled holes in the team’s top six forwards and pushed Paajarvi down in the pecking order. This season Paajarvi has spent most of his time playing with Eric Belanger and Sam Gagner, both capable NHL players but as a line they were very ineffective. The Oilers’ winning streak happened to coincide with this line’s existence which likely provides some explanation as to why it was allowed to fail for so long.

Other than the first two games of the year when Shawn Horcoff was his centre Paajarvi has spent almost no time playing with any of the Oilers top forwards and that more than anything is the issue with Paajarvi right now. Paajarvi has the skills to be a very good hockey player but he can’t do it by himself. Tom Renney has gone out of his way to shelter the Taylor Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Jordan Eberle line but hasn’t been willing to shuffle the lines to give Paajarvi (or for that matter Omark) the line mates he needs to be successful. It's nice to have one, or two, lines working effectively but to win on a regular basis the Oilers are going to need more than that.

There is enough talent on this team to build three good forward lines. Derek previously looked at options available to Renney when Ales Hemsky returned, suggesting Paajarvi play alongside Anton Lander and Omark. I liked Derek's option but there seems to be significant opposition on the coaching staff to breaking up the Nugent-Hopkins line as Derek had called for so with that in mind I'd suggest something closer to this.

Smyth	-	Gagner	-	Hemsky
Paajarvi	-	Horcoff	-	Jones
Hall	-	Nugent-Hopkins	-	Eberle
Petrell	-	Belanger	-	Eager/Lander

You could actually take this a step a further, recalling Omark from Oklahoma City inserting him on Horcoff's right side and having Horcoff protect Paajarvi and Omark much in the same way he protected Hall and Eberle last season; a role that worked out well for Hall and Eberle. The scoring chance data from last season shows that Paajarvi and Omark were quite successful together and in limited time with Horcoff the results were also encouraging so this might at least be worth a try.

In this scenario I'd drop Ryan Jones to the fourth line. Jones has been a much improved player in his own zone this season but that shouldn't guarantee him a spot on the team's top two lines. With line combinations like these the Oilers could have three lines that are an offensive threat and at the same time have an effective fourth line that can be trusted anywhere in the rink thanks to Belanger and the now defensively efficient Jones. That would be a very welcome change in Edmonton.

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PRV's Ailment

I have been say this since last year. I think he is getting the rawest of deals of the Big Three rookies from last year.

Constantly getting 3rd line minutes and playing with bottom 6 forwards as often as not. And people wonder why he didn’t score as much as Ebs or Hall last year, and why he is struggling this year.

His game is similar to Hall and I would like to give him a few games in Hall’s place ont he top line.

by OilHorse on Nov 16, 2011 7:50 AM MST reply actions

As great a job as Renney has done at matching lines to give the team the best chance to win, he is doing a disservice by not placing most of his players in situations to succeed. Gagner, Paajarvi and Omark have all gotten the shaft this year while the golden boys get the cherry minutes. I would much prefer these suggested lines to add balance to the team and the attack. Even still, perhaps it is better to shelter RNH with Smyth on his left side instead of giving him only offensive faceoffs. Would love to see Paajarvi/Omark given time with Horcoff to find their games.

by Oi on Nov 16, 2011 8:20 AM MST reply actions

Last year Gagner Paajarvi Omark was a horrible line combination, this year when Gagner was back, he was paired with Belanger and Gagner, big surprise the line didn’t produce.

Last game Paajarvi played under 9 minutes, one of lowest amounts on team, no wonder he is not “producing.” Funny how Gagner gets all this slack, even PP time, while Paajarvi gets stapled to bench.

It’s pretty much a joke how this situation has been mismanaged. Omark is already at risk of being traded or head back to Sweden, if this happens to Paajarvi too, what a great waste of assets that Renney/Tambellini will be the cause of.

by George Roop on Nov 16, 2011 8:40 AM MST reply actions

Put the damn swedes together for a couple of games and see what happens. They showed some promise as a line in the pre-season and should at least be given a few games to see what would happen. Its not like Lander and MPS are defensively irresponsible.

Failing that, put I like flipping Hall and MPS, but as noted, lots of resistance to this move. So, how about putting Gagner on the wing with 94 and 10? It would be a real, real good thing to know if Gagner could play the second line RW role before the Oilers get serious in contract talks with Hemsky. And I shudder at the thought of Gagner at centre again.

Then put Hemsky with MPS and Lander. Make it Hemsky’s mission in life to get MPS going. Renney, “Mags, we’re putting Hemsky on your line. Go to the damn net and be ready for the puck on your stick. When Hemsky puts it there shoot the damn puck and drive to the net looking for rebounds. Good things will happen. Otherwise we trading you to the Jets for Bogosian and you don’t want to live in Winnipeg. You think its cold here? You ain’t seen nothing yet. Got it?”

by gcw_rocks on Nov 16, 2011 8:55 AM MST reply actions

If it were up to me, I would try running the following line-up for at least a month:

Smyth-RNH-Eberle
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Paajarvi-Gagner-Jones
Petrell-Belanger-Eager/Hartikainen
with Lander playing in OKC to work on his game
After that month I would also look at how Omark is doing. Perhaps, it is time to bring him back and play along Paajarvi and a vet centre, like Horcoff. It is still early to see Paajarvi-Lander-Omark line being effective consistently.

by Roman_Pilgrim on Nov 16, 2011 9:27 AM MST reply actions

Gagner + Paajarvi doesn’t work. Hasn’t in past, won’t in future.

by George Roop on Nov 16, 2011 2:14 PM MST up reply actions

Smyth - Gagner - Hemsky
Paajarvi - Horcoff - Jones
Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
Petrell - Belanger - Eager/Lander

Exactly, but only until they recall Omark. Then throw Omark with Horcoff and Jones with Belanger.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 16, 2011 10:05 AM MST reply actions

It’s so simple a caveman could do it.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Nov 16, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions

Except Omark’s game relies on guys who can convert his sick dishes. Neither Horcoff nor (to an even lesser extent) Belanger deliver this sort of finish.

by David S on Nov 16, 2011 1:30 PM MST up reply actions

I’d roll with those lines. Establish PHJ against the toughs and roll from there. Hopefully they can hold their own, I’m sure they would do alright.

As for Omark, we don’t need to see him for awhile.

by Dan Lizee on Nov 16, 2011 7:06 PM MST up reply actions

Coach Chambers

Hall – RNH – Eberle – soft minutes
Paajarvi – Gagner – Hemsky – 2nd scoring line
Smyth – Horcoff – Omark – tough minutes with some pop
4th line

The Oil aren’t exactly lighting the lamp. I like Smyth and Horcoff together and don’t see a ton of value with Jones on the right – Linus might be a better option if he holds his own defensively.

The big change is getting Gagner and Paajarvi going by putting them with Hemsky.

by John Chambers on Nov 16, 2011 10:15 AM MST reply actions

Again, as reiterated in earlier posts, Gagner + Paajarvi doesn’t work, why people keep proposing it seems like an extremely poor thought process.

by George Roop on Nov 16, 2011 2:15 PM MST up reply actions

Gagner at centre doesn’t work, but people keep proposing that as well

by gcw_rocks on Nov 16, 2011 3:32 PM MST up reply actions

I somewhat agree with you there too. It’s not like Gagner is bad as a center, he’s put up okay numbers as a #2 center. He’s below average defensively, and horrible at faceoffs, so I’d assume he’d be more effective as a winger, however that is debatable and not an absolute.

by George Roop on Nov 16, 2011 4:20 PM MST up reply actions

I don’t want Omark on the ice against the best players in the NHL. Thats a recipe for inevitable doom.

by Dan Lizee on Nov 16, 2011 7:06 PM MST up reply actions

I think the only thing wrong is ice time and luck. Paajarvi’s on-ice shots/60 are barely off last season (23 vs 24.4, about 1 shot / 4 games) but his sh% is down to 3.1% from 7.9%. At some point (hopefully soon) he’ll shoot over 10% for a week or two and his point totals will be back on track.

by Old Haven on Nov 16, 2011 10:53 AM MST via iPhone app reply actions

What the hell – here’s what I would do for tomorrow:

Smyth – Horcoff – Jones (it was successful, keep with it for tough matchups)
Omark – Gagner – Hemsky (it should be successful, lets try it)
Hall – RNH – Eberle (we’re back at home, right?)
Paajarvi – Belanger – Petrell

Of course, we all know deep down that Omark isn’t going to be recalled. So here’s my non-Omark lineup…

Hall – Gagner – Hemsky (I think this could be good for all three of them)
Smyth – Horcoff – Jones
Paajarvi – RNH – Eberle (the new kids on the block?)
Eager – Belanger – Petrell (feel free to replace Eager with a hockey player if you get the urge)

by Yeti# on Nov 16, 2011 11:21 AM MST reply actions

I like coke machines, why replace?

by DarrenV on Nov 16, 2011 11:51 AM MST up reply actions

Because this particular machine keeps taking my money but not dispensing the coke.

by Yeti# on Nov 16, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

I thought that was what we required in Edmonton.

by DarrenV on Nov 16, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions

Apparently this is what is required:
“I got cleared by the doctor yesterday,” [Hordichuck] said to the media. “It’s about getting some practices in with the guys and getting the game speed going. I’m hoping to come into the lineup, create some energy, bang some bodies and maybe drop the gloves.”

by Yeti# on Nov 16, 2011 1:19 PM MST up reply actions

The bottom one is probably the best of the suggested lineups posted, on paper at least. I think you have to keep Horcoff and Smyth together, and I could see RNH and Paajarvi playing well. I would like to see Gagner Hall Hesmky together to see if Sam can actually do anything, I think this would be a good test and if he sucks the talent out of Hemsky and Hall then everyone knows he isn’t the center we need.

Thoughts on:

Smyth-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Hall-RNH-Eberle
Jones-Gagner-Hemsky
Eager-Belanger-Petrell

Maybe Smyth can suck in some defenders so Paajarvi can drive the net from the wing?

by Tanman37 on Nov 16, 2011 1:24 PM MST up reply actions

At this point in time I have to believe Sam Gagner would gladly become a Jehovah’s Witness convert if it meant he could play on a line with offensively competent NHL’ers.

You guys all know this is exactly what’s going to happen if he’s traded. right?*

*Being paired with decent NHL’ers I mean.

by David S on Nov 16, 2011 1:35 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

Paajarvi would get better with more ice time.

You need to adopt Mike Keenan’s strategy with Olli Jokinen. Play him a lot, and then play him some more. Renney is over thinking Paajarvi. Just let the thoroughbred run.

Which is what he doe with Hall.

by godot10 on Nov 16, 2011 2:48 PM MST reply actions

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
Smyth-Belanger-Jones
Eager-Lander-Petrell

Can someone call Owen Nolan and see what he’s up to? I hear he’s going fishing on Friday.

To be honest, I don’t think Hemsky or Gagner are long for this team.

If Paajarvi needs to do anything at all. He just has to go out and “want” the puck more. Get chippy. Winning hurts.

by Dan Lizee on Nov 16, 2011 7:12 PM MST reply actions

Paajarvi will be moved to the blue line…..I’ve been saying it since day 1

by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Nov 16, 2011 10:05 PM MST reply actions

He already scores like a defenceman. (Ladi Smid, actually)

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 17, 2011 8:43 AM MST up reply actions

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