Paajarvi's Pronounced Progression Portends Prodigious Play

My colleague Bruce McCurdy got it right when he said, "Put those skates under a 6'3, 200 pound frame and you have an imposing prospect. For Magnus Pääjärvi, the sky is the limit."  A number of writers have looked at Paajarvi's improvement in 2011, including Ryan Batty, who wrote, "Another positive out of Paajarvi's season was that his production didn't fall off late in the season. Having played 50 and 49 games in his previous two season with Timra IK it wouldn't have been a big surprise if the longer NHL season wore Paajarvi down. But even though he was playing more games than he ever had before and injuries had increased his icetime, Paajarvi's play didn't drop off at all. In fact in terms of scoring chances, Paajarvi played his best hockey at the very end of the season. Yet another very encouraging sign for the future of the Oilers."

And though Paajarvi's debut season wasn't as flashy as Jordan Eberle's or as enthralling as Taylor Hall's, Paajarvi's numbers do show some promise: "Paajarvi didn't put up as much offense as Kopitar and Sundin, but surprisingly, for me at least, he's kept pace with the Sedins."

But the offensive improvement wasn't a fluke, carried by dependence on linemates or an unsustainable shooting percentage.


Magnus Paajarvi

#91 / Left Wing / Edmonton Oilers

6-3

200

Apr 12, 1991



GP G A P S S/G TOI/G RCorsi ZS PDO
Magnus Paajarvi - 2010-11 80 15 19
34
180 2.25 15:23 7/13 52.4% 983

As Ryan pointed out, Paajarvi's first 20 games were very rough in all areas.  But a closer look at how Paajarvi finished the season is encouraging.  In the table below I've broken out Paajarvi's shot rates through his first 40 games and his final 40.


Shots S/G S/82
Games 1-40 75 1.875 154
Games 41-80 105 2.625 215

The difference is significant.  His responsibilities and playing time increased after Dustin Penner was traded and Taylor Hall was injured, but he did not shrink in the face of tougher competition.  The improvement is even more obvious when viewed as a rolling average.  Below is a chart detailing Paajarvi's 10-game rolling shots on goal per game average.  The second segment of the above table starts in the midpoint of the chart, just prior to the jump to over 2.5 shots per game.  *Click to enlarge

Paajarvi_2010-11_10-game_rolling_sog_medium

The Matterhorn-like slope on the right side of the graph occurs after March 3rd, when Hall suffered his ankle injury.  Those 17 games were the true driver of his offensive numbers.   I've broken out those final 17 games and created three segments to Paajarvi's rookie season:


Shots S/G S/82
Games 1-40 75 1.875 154
Games 41-64 48 2.087 171
Games 64-80 57 3.353 275

Assuming a 9% shooting percentage, Paajarvi's goals per game projected over a full season begin at 14 in his first segment, move to 15 in the second segment and jump all the way to 25 in the third segment.  He can generate the shots, now it's just a matter of giving him the icetime.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker