Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Should Go Back To Red Deer

Does the fact that the CBA will be going through one and possibly two revisions during the 7 year life of his ELC enter into your thinking at all? I’m pretty much a coin flip on this decision, but one of the factors that comes into play for me is that the mechanics of ELC’s may change in the future.

What plays a huge factor in the post is that you are counting on Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi to get big contracts after their ELC, it might happen but if that is the case then chances are their salary is warranted and they have developed into allstars…unless they Turris us.

Its important to take note that some contracts will be coming off the books as well, and it is nice to have players during their ELC years I would be pumped if we solidified our first line and they got paid like it, other players like Pitlick, Hamilton can play out their ELC’s on the third line or even some on the second.

I think what is important is is signing these guys to valued contracts, create a winning environment where they want to pay and maybe Hall takes that 6 years contract at a 5.5 cap hit (depending on where he is at in two years), the tough thing is signing a player to a contract before his prime years but paying him during his prime years at lesser cost:

If RNH goes down this year he more likely to put up better numbers in his third year of his ELC then he would if he stays (He gets an extra year) so the debate would be if we want him playing at an elite level for the last year of his ELC and paying him after or signing him after his ELC is done and paying him and then him becoming elite. I think that’s what makes or breaks a GM after the rebuild is comlplete.

Of course, drafting Larsson would change everything: from the alignment of the planets to the Oilers becoming perennial Stanley Cup winners for 50 years in a row. And seriously, who can tell at this point in the season how the Oilers will finish in June 2012? He-he-he…

Totally disagree with this post. If RNH is good enough to play in the NHL now, you keep him. With the salary cap continually trending upwards, who’s to say the cap will not be over 70 million in 2-3 years? Sure, it could stay the same or go down, but not very likely.

Let’s compare RNH to John Tavares’ 2nd contract of 5.5 per year. I’d say that’s a fair comparision. So people want to hold back RNH for a year or two to save 1.75 million against a 65+ million salary cap? That’s 2.6% of the cap. We all have our doubts about Tambellini, but if he can’t fit 1.75 million under the Salary Cap, then he really is a poor GM.

I stopped reading this article because the idea that the Oilers should throw RNH down to the minors solely for “cap management” is ridiculous. As the article states, both Pittsburgh and Chicago won while their best players were in their ELC. What amazes me is the prognosticating powers of the author. He KNOWS the Oilers won’t be read to compete two seasons from now, or even next season for that matter. Really? I don’t think he understands how quickly things can turn around.

People seems to forget that the Penguins went from earning 58pts in 2005-06, to a whopping 105pts the VERY NEXT SEASON.

Obviously the Oilers don’t have Malkin or Crosby, but a smart GM can turn around a team pretty quick once it the talent becomes apparent. Kevin Lowe remade the team in the spring of ’06 and the Oilers went on to the Stanley Cup Final.

Yes, impending RFA contracts are an issue, but it should be noted that some contracts will be coming off the books, like Hemsky, Horcoff, and obviously Smyth won’t cost 5 million or whatever it is.

There are ways to manage your cap without needless dumping a kid to junior who clearly can play in the NHL now.

Sending down RNH is not really a great business decision IMO.

Sure it saves a year on his ELC, BUT it also sends a message to a fanbase hat they have no interest in actually winning. Like it or not, people will eventually stop buying the product when it’s been years of futility. Couple that with the fact that they will remove arguably their greatest marketable asset while trying to get a 400 million dollar publicly funded(at least partially) arena passed.

It can be argued, that To intentionally make the team worse at this critical juncture is worse than burning off a year of an ELC to an already competent NHL player (who incidentally leads the team in scoring). Eventually, the people WILL stop buying the shit that’s being forced on them.

I don’t really care, but that seems like a worse business decision than worrying about contracts that none of us have any idea what their value will be two years down the road. Barker, Jones, Khabibulin and half the teams contracts willl be expired by then. Does Paarjarvi look like a 4 + million guy? EBERLE HALL RNH. That’s who they’ll have to pay. If Tambo/Lowe have any sense, they SHOULD be able to manage the contracts without much worry.

The losing is only a part of it.

The message of sending out a highly marketable asset (who as to this point, has been the teams best player statisically speaking) to INTENTIONALLY lose after stating that the goal is the playoffs while trying to get the public to help pay for an arena is BAD BUSINESS.

Eventually people get sick of being fed shit. It’s just my opinion

In any draft you take the BEST player period. RNH was the BEST player…period. If anyone should be sent down it should be Horcoff. Never have liked that guy. The BIGGEST reason also for not sending RNH down is where he would be going…..to Brent Sutter’s Red Deer Rebels. I certainly don’t want a talent like RNH ruined by the any Sutter’s primitive school of hockey thinking. All this talk about RNH being “sheltered” is silly. In Calgary he didn’t have his linemate Hall playing with him. What I especially like about the Oil is their size. Their D-men are huge and they are one of the main reasons why we are playing so well in our back-end. Witney, Potter, Sutton, Smid and Barker are all over 6’3" or taller ! Gilbert is 6’2".
Plus we have added size up front with Eager and Hordichuck. We have enough size to look after the likes of RNH.

A few other points I would argue in this article are:
1) What has Petry done in the NHL/AHL that makes him that much better of a player then Barker? I’d prefer they keep Petry over Barker myself, but Petry hasn’t shown that he’s any better. Does he excel at anything?
  
2) You mention players on their entry level contracts. But didn’t mention that Patrick Kane was not returned to Junior. Malkin and Toews were not #1 picks, so it’s a little different to compare them to Kane and RNH. Malkin didn’t play in his first season after he was drafted because there was something called a lockout during that year, and he had a 2 year contract with his hometown team. And Toews made a pretty huge commitment to UND at the time.

Since 1996, no 1st overall pick playing Major Junior has been returned to Junior. It’s just not something teams do anymore especially just to “save ELC years” in the future.

You have to consider, that you’re really only getting more cap room for the 2014-15 season. Delaying him a year, might make that 3rd year on his ELC more productive and make that second contract a lot bigger.

Ovechkin was delayed because of the lockout and his 3rd year ended up being his monster 65 goal season instead of 06-07 when he was outside the top 10 in scoring. Obviously, the extra year of NHL experience would have helped him, but the Caps probably will end up losing more cap room over a lot of years versus the amount they saved in 07-08. You could say the same thing about Backstrom for them as well.

Most likely the best choice from a Cap standpoint and best chance to keep these players together.. You are probably correct in your view. I believe there is one key problem with this scenario however. If you as a team management tell a drafted player.. come to camp show that you belong… continue to show you belong in the 1st 9 games and you will stay. In his case they basically stated if he could handle the physicality of the game and still be successful he would stay. Well here we have a player that has 7 pts in 7 games.. leads the team in scoring. And you turn around and send him back to Junior?!
You have now ruined your trust with that player.. you’ve given him the 1st taste of this is all about the money so sorry we kinda lied?? Bad move.

I don’t understand the angst about the cap 3 years from now.

We have Hopkins, Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark, Lander and Petrell on ELC and Gagner a low cost RFA. That’s 8 forwards for 6 spots – spots that put up the numbers and get e bigger contracts. I’m hopeful for the future of the Oilers but there’s no way 8 of these guys all command a top-level or even mid-level second contact. Those that don’t can be signed cheaper to add depth or traded.

As long as the Oilers reward the impact players in the coming years, and not spend willy-nilly to keep the kids akin to the Horcoff, Pisani and Gilbert deals, we dn’t have to worry about. A cap crunch.

First the idea of Larsson speeding up the rebuild process is the dumbest argument ever. A better player up front is what will speed up a process, except for the position of goalie. So the better player regardless of his position will make a sucessful team rebuild quicker. You can make any analogy or argument, but the proof is in the pudding. RNH has been the best player on the team, period. No argument can be made against that fact. He may only be 18, he may be slender, he may not be the great faceoff guy yet, all that may be true, but his accomplishments on the ice far exceed his negatives up to this point. He would gain absolutely nothing going back to juniors. Nothing at all. His play has been as good or better than every single top young talent in the last 10 years. He is getting better in his own end as well. He made a couple of nice back checking plays just last night. If a person can look his play so far and even remotely say he is not ready, hockey is not the sport for you. As for the writer, to rebuild is to put your best players on the ice together so they can learn against NHL level talent. If dominating at the junior level ever translated into a successful rebuild, Alexander Daigle would have rewritten the NHL record books, and led Ottawa to a couple of cups.

Not a problem. The young guy centers the best line on the team. The team is having some success, something they haven’t had in a long time. RNH’s start is comparable to the likes of Crosby and Ovie. Better than Stamkos, Tavares, and last years Calder winner Skinner. Speaking of Skinner, he was even smaller than RNH. He is having individual success and the team is having success. Those two alone trumps any argument for sending him back to the junior level. I thought the junior level was to prepare them for the NHL. Well his numbers say he is prepared already. His linemates numbers say he is prepared already. And the true Ace Card, the teams success, which he has had a major influence in, says he is prepared. Any argument made to send him back is fools gold, because it has no basis to what has transpired on the 200 foot sheet of ice. The only question is can he endured an 82 game NHL season? Well that can only be answered while he plays on the NHL level. If Skinner who continues to get better, who weighed all of 160 lbs wet survived, this kid can also survive. This piece is truly flaky. Especially when the guy he touts has not shown to be better than the guy he says should back to juniors. I like Larsson, but it would be foolish to even make a remote argument at this point he is better than RNH. No one has a crystal ball, but if being NHL ready is the question at hand, on the ice he has answered that question in spades.