Edmonton's Early-Season Shots Against
by Derek Zona on Oct 24, 2011 4:30 PM MDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintJonthan Willis touched on a topic that's gaining momentum in the 'sphere, the enormous difference in the Oilers' ability to prevent shots this year as compared to the last couple of seasons. Jonathan writes:
There’s been a slight increase offensively, but the real breakthrough has been in terms of shots against; after posting a lousy number in 2010-11 the Oilers have been superb this season. The number may be too good to be true, in fact; it would have led the league last season. Even so, the Oilers have gone from being badly outshot one season ago to holding a slight edge in the play this year.
More surprising than the overall numbers are the players leading the way in preventing shots against. Up front, Magnus Paajarvi and Taylor Hall are surrendering 18.8 and 19.3 shots per 60 minutes at even strength. On the backend, Tom Gilbert is surrendering 19.5 shots per 60, another testament to both his tremendous all-around game and excellent start to the season.
Scott has focused on how badly the Oilers have been outshot over the last two seasons and how difficult it is to overcome such a deficit in order to win hockey games. Thus far this season, the Oilers are fifth in the league in shots against. At first glance, this season is different, but we need to look deeper. Jonathan is absolutely correct; these are the best shots against numbers the Oilers have posted in a very long time, but there's a caveat...
...the underliers' underlying numbers have played a significant part in this early-season turn around.
Five of the Oilers seven games have come against teams ranked 23rd or worse in shots per game. They've played 23rd-ranked Calgary, 27th-ranked Minnesota twice, 29th- ranked New York and 30th-ranked Nashville.
"Aha!" you say. "Those teams are ranked so poorly because of the superior shot suppression skills of the Oilers!"
It's possible, but it's easy to remove the seven games against the Oilers from their opponent's totals, eliminating Edmonton's influence on their shot totals.
| S/G | |
| vs. Oilers | 26.43 |
| vs. others | 27.62 |
Their opponents, not including games against Edmonton, would rank 23rd in the league in shots per game. The Oilers have built their shots against numbers against teams that are struggling to put pucks on the net regardless of the team they're playing against.
Peek ahead at the Oilers' schedule. The next ten days show games against Vancouver (5th), Washington (14th), Colorado (11th), St. Louis (9th) -- teams all in the top half of the league in shots thus far. These games should give us a better indication of the Oilers' ability to suppress shots. Even then the sample size is still small, but we should have a better feel for the Oilers' abilities at that point.
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The Oilers have also played more home games than road games, and have been able to get favourable match ups.
The Oilers are better. The arrow looks to be pointing in the right direction, but its early.
The Oilers have also played more home games than road games, and have been able to get favourable match ups.
That too. As long as the Mystery Machine keep getting stuck in their own end, this team is going to get beat up on the road.
The Oilers are better.
Slightly better, I agree.
The arrow looks to be pointing in the right direction, but its early.
The goaltending and defense are playing so far over their heads, and that’s with Barker and Peckham playing like AHLers.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think that the team’s results will continue to be quite a bit better than last season if Tom Renney remains committed to deploying his players with winning games being the foremost consideration.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2011 8:05 AM MDT up reply actions
Like godot10 I attribute a large portion of this to early season home games and actual line matching.
It’s still better than in the past when they were outshot by EVERYONE.
by TigerUnderGlass on Oct 24, 2011 6:03 PM MDT reply actions
It’s still better than in the past when they were outshot by EVERYONE.
No doubt, but there’s a real chance the shots against are going to shoot up pretty quickly in the next two weeks. It’s worth keeping in mind as people talk about the tide turning.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I doubt that shots against number is sustainable, but on the other hand I don’t know if it’s a stretch to say the shots for might increase when Hemsky comes back, Gagner shakes off the rust, Renney comes to his senses and starts playing Omark and Paajarvi picks things up a bit.
As long as Renney keep giving the toughs to Horc and Belanger and the gravy minutes to the kids I could see the Oilers being break even in the shot department at the end of the year.
by melancholyculkin on Oct 24, 2011 7:32 PM MDT reply actions
Omark is 8th best at SF/60 but 3rd worst at SA/60. Only Peckham and Ryan Smyth (who is facing the toughest opposition) are worse according to Desjardins.
Which is why Omark is in the press box.
Very true. Also, Ryan Jones has one of the best marks among forwards, and he’s been playing the toughs with Horcoff and Smyth. Maybe he doesn’t suck at everything like many people here seem to think.
Enjoying the luxury of two gentlemen who eat nails for breakfast.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 24, 2011 9:37 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
speaking of smyth….Just read that he’s only 7 ppg’s behind gretzky in franchise history, and 8 away from most ppg’s in oiler history!!!!!
Oh and the next time someone shit-talks kevin lowe….he’s the only man in history to play 1000 (reg season) games in an oilers jersey
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Oct 25, 2011 1:17 AM MDT up reply actions
His time as a player was never the problem.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
by dawgbone98 on Oct 25, 2011 1:54 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let’s compare numbers half way into the season. It will make more sense while determining where the Oilers stand and where they are going from this point in their development. The team must average at least 15 points a month plus some points in April to be in a post-season. To me, the Oilers’ November and February performances will be indicative of whether the post-season in 2012 is even in the cards.
Let’s compare numbers half way into the season. It will make more sense while determining where the Oilers stand and where they are going from this point in their development
I dont see whats wrong in seeing the early trends.
Have you seen my bear Tibbers?
Nothing is wrong. It is just the issue of Oilers winning, let’s say, first six and and getting butchered later on. If the effort and performance are sustained for a longer period of time – then I am a happy, happy fan.
by Roman_Pilgrim on Oct 25, 2011 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions
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