The Predators and Alexander Radulov: What Might Have Been
Editor's Note: Alexander Radulov's rumored return has sparked the question "What will he mean to the Predators and their Stanley Cup hopes?" The article below was originally published in January of 2011, but it remains valid as a predictor of his NHL performance.
"People were nice to me there, they have good fans, and I liked the organization. My agent actually talked to them during these years. But I don't want to play the speculation game. For now I'm a KHL player."
--Alexander Radulov, on his time in Nashville.
Alexander Radulov liked Nashville, the organization, the people, and the fans. Unfortunately, he didn't like Nashville as much as he likes Ufa or the KHL. When he left Nashville in 2008, he left a fan base and organization in shock. After rumors of a possible return gave the Predators some hope, his return gradually became more and more of a joke for both the organization and its fans, though some still held out hope that Radulov would eventually end his Russian exile. Radulov dashed all of that remaining hope when he signed a three-year contract extension in the off-season, re-affirming his commitment to the KHL and Ufa. If he were to come back to the NHL, he'd have to complete the final year of his entry-level contract, and as Dirk Hoag says, that's a big reason why the NHL may never see Radulov again:
So is this the last time I'll have to write about Alexander Radulov relative to the Nashville Predators? It could well be. As he heads into the prime of his career, I can't imagine him coming back to play out his entry-level NHL contract for less than $1 million. This extension takes him up to the summer right before the 2014 Sochi Winter Games, and it is inconceivable that he would leave Russia to return to the NHL at that time.
Radulov has become an anathema in Nashville. Although the Predators have remained a strong team in his absence, the fanbase can't help but wonder how much of a difference the kid who jilted them might have made.
The Predators suffered two straight seasons of declining goal production after their 110-point season in 2007-08, but the largest drop actually came in Radulov's last season in the NHL. Once Radulov left, the team fell below the league average and the Predators missed the playoffs for the first time in five seasons:
| Year | Predators GF | League Average |
| 2006-07 | 272 | 242 |
| 2007-08 | 230 | 228 |
| 2008-09 | 213 | 239 |
| 2009-10 | 225 | 233 |
| 2010-11 | 221 | 233 |
Patric Hornqvist's 30-goal season in 2009-10 has helped to stop the bleeding, and the Predators returned to the playoffs, but their goal-scoring still hasn't gotten back to league average. A look at Radulov's NHLE (big thanks to the venerable, terrifying Gabe Desjardins for the methodology) shows how Radulov has performed over the course of his professional career and what he may have added to the Predators' lineup:
| Year | Age | NHL82 G | NHL82 A | NHL82 P | S/G |
| 2006-07 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 47 | 1.50 |
| 2007-08 | 21 | 26 | 32 | 59 | 2.25 |
| 2008-09* | 22 | 29 | 34 | 63 | 3.13 |
| 2009-10* | 23 | 30 | 49 | 79 | 2.67 |
| 2010-11* | 24 | 26 | 68 | 94 | 3.62 |
*indicates KHL season
Radulov's NHL seasons were special - he was a young forward scoring loads of points at a young age. Using NHLE as an estimate of his possible scoring in subsequent seasons, Radulov would have been Nashville's second-leading scorer behind J.P. Dumont in 2008-09, and would have led the team in scoring by more than twenty points in 2009-10. This year, Radulov would be on pace to lead the Predators in scoring by over 45 points! His 94-point pace would place him seventh in the NHL's scoring race, behind only Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards. There's every indication that Radulov has blossomed into a true offensive superstar in the KHL.
Most North American fans, however, don't really know what they're missing. During his time with the Predators, Radulov was in his early twenties and still developing as a player. As such, Barry Trotz gifted the young man an astounding number of offensive zone starts, which had a substantial impact on his numbers:
Notice that Radulov's adjusted Corsi falls into the negative when zone starts are taken into account. The player was scoring, but he was also being sheltered. Obviously, that kind of sheltering requires someone else on the team to take on the tough assignments. Radulov's impact on the rest of the team in those early NHL years is probably best understood by looking at the zone start and adjusted Corsi data for the whole club:
| OZ% | Corsi/60 | Adj Corsi/60 | |
| Alexander Radulov | 0.654 | 4.52 | -2.35 |
| Jordin Tootoo | 0.539 | 7.64 | 5.52 |
| J.P. Dumont | 0.535 | 2.72 | 1.03 |
| Jason Arnott | 0.508 | 7.94 | 7.54 |
| Jan Hlavac | 0.506 | 10.36 | 10.09 |
| David Legwand | 0.503 | -2.06 | -2.24 |
| Darcy Hordichuk | 0.500 | -7.27 | -7.27 |
| Martin Gelinas | 0.494 | 6.33 | 6.62 |
| Brandon Bochenski | 0.485 | 8.78 | 9.48 |
| Martin Erat | 0.484 | 7.69 | 8.49 |
| Vernon Fiddler | 0.473 | -1.21 | 0.38 |
| Jed Ortmeyer | 0.424 | -6.85 | -2.50 |
| Radek Bonk | 0.424 | -5.51 | -1.15 |
| Scott Nichol | 0.393 | 0.16 | 6.17 |
| Jerred Smithson | 0.368 | -14.62 | -5.94 |
Barry Trotz leaned heavily on Bonk, Nichol, Smithson, and Ortmeyer to do the dirty work in order to protect Radulov early in his career as well as capitalize on his offensive skills. But as Radulov's game improved (and improves), it's likely Trotz wouldn't have needed to protect him, and in fact could use gradually ease him into the power versus power role he's used for many of his top EV players like David Legwand and Joel Ward.
Radulov's story is a shame for the Predators and the NHL as a whole, which is now missing one of the world's top players. Radulov was exactly the kind of home-grown talent - the Russians might have a beef with this characterization - necessary for a small-market team to have long-term success. Radulov's talents may well have strengthened attendance in Nashville, both because he'd likely be among the league's best, and because his presence would have probably meant a bump in the standings for the Preds. Nashville may have even made a deeper run in the playoffs, and who knows, maybe even a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. That's the kind of success that could have taken Nashville from constant rumors of relocation to becoming one of the NHL's showcase franchises.
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Great analysis...but
Nashville is up to 20th in the league in attendance at 93% of capacity and is 4th in the Western Conference in points…all without the services of Mr. Radulov. Would I still love to have Rads on the roster? Yeah…like a fat kid loves cake but, unlike most of the rest of the NHL, Pred fans have long moved on from what might have been.
I’ll take this reincarnation of the Preds any day…one of the best defensive teams in the league with great goaltending and rolling 4 scoring lines. How many other NHL teams can pull players up from the AHL, from the KHL, or make a seemingly “meh, trade” and plug those players in at will and make it successful? Six players on the Pred roster have played every game this season… only 6! Tonight’s starting line-up doesn’t even remotely resemble opening night…no stars, no big media splashes. Just 20 hard-working guys plugging away, quietly taking the league by storm, 1 boring point at a time. Alexander Radulov who?
by TitanPredBearFan on Jan 23, 2011 7:30 AM MST reply actions
Great analysis…but Nashville is up to 20th in the league in attendance at 93% of capacity and is 4th in the Western Conference in points…
As I said in the article, “Although the Predators have remained a strong team in his absence,”
As for the second paragraph, they are a great defensive team, but to say you don’t miss a 90 point scorer is…a little crazy. When the trade deadline rolls around, I’m almost certain that Nashville is going to be in the market for cheap scoring punch. Something they wouldn’t need with a 90 point guy on the top line.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jan 23, 2011 9:53 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Radulov's departure was a setback...
Along with the Leipold fire sale, the Boots bankruptcy, etc. But the Preds have weathered it all, and now stand with strong local ownership and as my friend points out above, increasing attendance and excitement about the franchise in a “non-hockey market”. All with mounting injuries to the team, and still winning games convincingly.
I might call that a miracle, but it’s the hard work of the ownership, front office, team and we the fans that have kept the Preds here and thriving. They will make a deeper playoff run and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was this year.
by DonBorvio on Jan 23, 2011 9:13 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Honestly, I’m really happy to see the Predators having success (not as happy as I’d be if it were the Oilers, but you know, happy). The situation in Nashville reminds me a lot of the situation in Edmonton in the mid to late 90’s, and that was a really fun team to cheer for, especially because it felt like the community had to come together to make it work.
Abney, Abney, oh why TF did we have to pick Abney?
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 23, 2011 9:19 AM MST up reply actions
Bingo
There’s nothing quite like the feeling of supporting a team that’s on the rise and still feels like “the best kept secret”. My in-laws are all Purdue alums, and when I married into the family (and started going to their football games with my father-in-law) they had just brought in a new coach with an up-tempo offensive game plan, and a fresh young kid at quarterback named Drew Brees.
The team went from laughing stock to the Rose Bowl pretty quickly, and the energy at their games was just outstanding.
Such is the atmosphere in Nashville these days. With Shea Weber at the helm and a supporting cast straight off the Island of Misfit Toys (Sergei Kostitsyn, Joel Ward, Shane O’Brien, Anders Lindback, etc.) there’s a sense that the good times are just getting started.
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Preds. I can save you a few $$$ on Nashville Predators tickets, or just catch me on Twitter and Facebook.
by Dirk Hoag on Jan 23, 2011 9:43 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Same here. I rather enjoy the Preds’ success, especially because they’ve done so with a limited budget and they’ve built so intelligently.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Many Thanks for the Article Derek
I’m somewhat new to OTF (been reading last nine months and recently posting) but linked to your article here when Dirk posted it on OTF.
Radulov’s departure was very tumultuous for the Preds and their fans – we all had high hopes for the talent he clearly is; we’ve now moved on from what might have been. It is interesting though to see where he might have gone….
I’m with TitanPredBearFan in his analysis of our club. I do wonder though if Radulov realizes whate he left behind/what he walked away from. In just a few years, the money would have been just as good and the competition clearly the best in the world. Wonder if he realizes what he stepped away from?
by keepellisingoal on Jan 23, 2011 10:06 AM MST reply actions
I’m with TitanPredBearFan in his analysis of our club. I do wonder though if Radulov realizes whate he left behind/what he walked away from. In just a few years, the money would have been just as good and the competition clearly the best in the world. Wonder if he realizes what he stepped away from?
I’d really like to understand just how homesick he was. In the first linked article (the source of the quote), he refers a number of times to going back home and being home. It’s distinctly possible that the kid was just really homesick and may be that way forever.
It’s really strange though – he came over to play CHL hockey, something most Russians don’t do, and played in the AHL and I don’t recall ever hearing about his homesickness before he actually left.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I had heard the homesick comments....
…but never put it in the context that Radulov had been in the CHL and AHL …. There is probably a huge back story here which, possibly, we may never know in full.
btw, I concur with your post above Derek in response to TitanPredBearFan, we absolutely do miss a 90 point scorer (heck, even if he were just a 60 point scorer, 2/3’s of that). We’ve never FULLY recovered from the Leopold firesale/loss of Radulov at wing. Trotz has worked near miracles to plug those gaps but when I say fully recovered, its a reflection that those gaps are being filled more short term (one to two year) not the long term talent a Radulov can bring.
We will get there, and are competetive in the interim, but its clear the loss of Radulov was significant from a long term perspective – that does not mean I don’t think guys like Ward (or very recent arrivals to the Preds like Svatos or Mueller) aren’t good players but they aren’t the franchise guy like Radulov (or Weber, Suter or Rinne, all of whom we need to ink to LONG term deals).
by keepellisingoal on Jan 23, 2011 10:22 AM MST reply actions
Yes, we miss Radulov. Yes, he was probably homesick. Perhaps, he was influenced by underworld types. Perhaps, he was influenced by millions of mostly tax-free dollars. We are all playing the guessing game. He could have had a career-ending concussion the next game he played. We will never know.
Leipold is easier to define. Most of us hate him for the firesale and rumors of moving, but he IS the one who brought the team to Nashville. Classic Love/Hate thing going on there.
The Preds and their fans are the winners, regardless of who has left.
I enjoyed the post, Derek.
I don’t see why the last year of the entry level deal is an obstacle. You can sign players to extensions once they are in the last year of a contract. And in the new contract, you compensate for the low salary in the last year of the remaining contract via a signing bonus or some such measure.
True he’s not coming without a signed extension. But I don’t see remaining year as an obstacle per se.
Radulov’s opportunity cost of playing in the NHL is several millions of dollars in that last year of the ELC, plus probably a couple of million dollars a year thereafter.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Jan 23, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
For some reason I can't reply to your post above Derek but...
If the current Preds hadn’t lost so many starting centers for the season (Lombardi, O’Reilly) and have Sullivan and Toots out for any indefinite amount of time, I really doubt Nashville would have been major players come the trade deadline. Trotz and Poile have this team just where they’ve always wanted them. They are now at a point in their system that they can call up or pick-up a particular type of player, plug him in and never lose a beat.
Look at Pittsburg, they have struggled since Crosby’s been out. With Ovechkin have a scoring drought, the Caps had to go through some MAJOR growing pains to become a more defensive oriented team. Star players are great, but if you don’t know how to score when they are out or are having an off night, that’s a problem.
Right at this point, the Preds have 4 true defensively responsible scoring lines…teams have to pick their poison. When one line gets shut down there are 3 more to pick up the scoring slack most nights. That and the fact that injuries will not kill us come playoff time (like they have the past 3 post seasons) makes very optimistic that this is the year the Preds turn the corner in the post season.
by TitanPredBearFan on Jan 23, 2011 11:52 AM MST reply actions
What are you talking about? There’s basically zero chance a guy who is close to the NHL scoring lead is a negative on any team…even an all-star team…maybe even Team Canada.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
Behindthenet quick link to QoC/QoT/Corsi/PDO/Zonestarts
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Jan 23, 2011 12:00 PM MST up reply actions
great article
my only concern is that i believe you may have overestimated his nhl potential. Mainly the players you mentioned that he would be behind. Those are the type of players with high compete levels, and i don’t believe that is a trait that radulov has. If he were a true competitor like the aforementioned players he probably would have returned to the NHL for the challenge, instead of staying in the KHL were he is the best player without having to put forth his best effort.
i know you only got that estimate from purely numbers and statistical analysis. I am just adding another factor to look at.
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers"
If he were a true competitor like the aforementioned players he probably would have returned to the NHL for the challenge, instead of staying in the KHL were he is the best player without having to put forth his best effort.
This is an enormous leap of logic and narrative. Everything he’s said publicly points to him being a guy that gets homesick. It happens.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
reply to cisar re: long term deals for Hornquist and Wilson....
…not sure where this post will appear but cisar is spot on, I should have listed Hornquist and Wilson too – they also need long term deals (and, to PerryK, love your comment on needing a “name change”. I am a big Ellis fan but Peks is a tremendous goalie and the Preds went to him long term – he is an amazing goalie for sure).
Also, this may be a little more debatable, but if I were the preds, I’d ink Sully to two more years. Less salary (he is less productive than in his prime, very understandable) but he really is a strong contributor – esp with guys like Wilson, Horny, O’Reilly, etc so strongly able to contribute and give Sully more options.
by keepellisingoal on Jan 23, 2011 12:17 PM MST reply actions
Thanks for the coverage.
I just wanted to say that I appreciate you actually covering something about Nashville from a Canadian perspective that isn’t about how our team sucks an needs to leave Tennessee.
Not to mention, you really touch on a subject that was really close to our heart. EVERYONE in Nashville absolutely loved this young, energetic and skillful player. I know for a fact that people would go to the game just to watch him. I had friends that were casual fans that would say that to me.
But now I’m at the point where I have a bittersweet taste left in my mouth. I understand his reasons, but it just sucks for us. We are a team that thrives on loyalty and working hard on your way up, and it seemed as he wanted to bypass that in some sense. I’m at the point where I would want him to play on our team, and would rather just seem him traded if he ever came back. Just so that it would not stir any controversy in the locker room with the players that were there for his departure.
Anyway, thanks again for the great article. I especially loved the part with the offensive zone starts, something that probably doesn’t get discussed enough.
I DO NOT WANT THE PREDATORS VINCE YOUNG BACK!!!!
Radulov can stay with KHL for all I care. I grew tired of his immaturity and unwillingness to put the TEAM first. He had diva qualities similiar to the former quarterback of our Titans. And much like VY when the going got tough he jumped ship to the KHL were he is the best player and he is reaffirmed how great he is. (VY goes back to Texas frequently and reminded how great he is. The fans here are so mean to him in Nashville.) Rads might think he is an elite player. In my opinion the elite players play in the NHL and not in mother russia. And just like VY, if Rads EVER comes back. I want the organization to trade him immediately. This team and the organization are better without him. His time here in Nashville with me is over.
I would love to see what happens when Radulov takes a swing at Trotz with his stick like he did his Russian assistant coach. The kid’s talented, but he is also a head case.
http://www.thecheapseats.ca/2012/02/alexander-radulov-hits-khl-coach-with-stick.html
PS: Can’t beleive the coach did nothing. The inmates must be running the asylum in that league.

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