Managing To Lose
by Derek Zona on Jan 10, 2011 6:30 AM MST
in Analysis
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This article was purposefully given a title with a dual meaning. Since 2006, no matter the string pulled by management, the Oilers have been managing to lose. The ethic has become infectious. So infectious, it seems that fans and some media members have caught it, whatever it is. They've decided that the Oilers aren't accidentally managing to lose because of bad breaks, rather, the management in Edmonton is actively managing to lose in some masterful long con.
During each extended losing streak this season, the fanatical devotees of the team and management team have proffered this: the reason the Oilers are so terrible this year isn't because of mismanagement, rather it's because of the genius of a group of executives bent on purposefully, though not obviously, tanking in order to get another lottery pick. Call it rose-colored glasses, drinking the copper & blue kool-aid, pollyannish behavior, becoming a Stepford Wife or a fan-management version of the Stockholm Syndrome, it's a position that requires a giant leap of faith. If the ingeniously sly plan to not obviously tank was so cunning, why does so much of it rely on bad luck and poor health? If management were so breathtakingly subtle, why did they assemble a team that, if healthy, wouldn't deliver a lottery pick, and if healthy except for their MVP goalie might not even deliver a top ten pick?
This isn't a case of the Oilers purposefully managing to lose, this is a case of the Oilers once again managing to lose because they lack a plan.
That Lowe and Tambellini have been managing to lose, regardless of tack, is not news. I, along with a number of other writers, have devoted an ever-increasing number of articles, analysis and columns to the inept decisions made over the last five seasons. What's become bothersome to me is this build-up of support for the notion that losing on purpose is the right path. Purposefully losing is never good. Losing in order to gain draft choices means a general manager is willing to throw away eighty-two games for a toss of the dice. Consider the risk inherent with such action. As it stands, Oiler fans already believe that free agents won't come to Edmonton for a variety of reasons -- if the team were indeed purposefully losing, the tank-job would shoot to the top of the list of reasons not to play in Edmonton. But some continue to support this whacky line of thinking - the slight possibility of the ends justifies the means.
The Oilers themselves have trumpeted the "Chicago model" and the "Pittsburgh model" as shining examples of rebuilds, and have, at various times, compared themselves and their plans to the Blackhawks and Penguins. Fans have fallen in step, pointing out the terrible times both teams fell on prior to their seasons at the top. The comparisons are, at the very least faulty, and could be simply ridiculous, and shall be explored below.
The Penguins grand turnaround comes down to one thing - luck. The Penguins, like the Rangers, Sabres and Blue Jackets had three ping pong balls in the 2005 lottery spinner, each had a 6.25% chance of winning the lottery and landing Sidney Crosby. The Penguins won the lottery, the Blue Jackets drafted sixth, the Rangers twelfth, and the Sabres thirteenth. Imagine, however if the Penguins would've been drawn in another slot, or traded draft positions with one of the other three teams with the same chance of winning. If Sidney Crosby had been drafted by the Blue Jackets, Sabres, or thank goodness we were spared, if the Rangers won the lottery, it's highly unlikely the Penguins would be a cup winner. If the Penguins rebirth began with Gilbert Brule, Marc Staal or Marek Zagrapan, it's not likely the team would they have even made a Stanley Cup Final. Even with Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal, subtracting Crosby and adding Zagrapan would probably force them into an even longer run of lottery picks.
If luck had not been with them, the end result would have been an entire lost generation of player development in Pittsburgh. Before Crosby's arrival, the Penguins burned away promising prospects by rushing them, or not playing them, or hiring the General Manager's unqualified brother to coach the AHL affiliate. Penguins fans watched as Milan Kraft, Alexei Morozov, Konstantin Koltsov, Tomas Surovy, Michal Rozsival, Ross Lupaschuk, and Michal Sivek all failed. If not for luck Pittsburgh would recount names like Zagrapan, or Andrew Cogliano or Kenndal McArdle in the same breath as the other failed prospects.
Chicago is interesting because the Blackhawks are the team most often discussed as a comparison for the Oilers rebuild. The team has talked about the Hawks, the television and radio crews have discussed the Chicago model, but the comparison isn't very apt. In 2006-2007, the Blackhawks held back #3 overall pick Jonathan Toews rather than rush him. The Blackhawks won the lottery in 2007 and selected Patrick Kane. In 2007-2008, Kane's rookie season, he was the leading scorer on the team. Toews was the team's third-leading scorer. The roster also included youngsters Dave Bolland, Andrew Ladd, Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer but they were buffered by grown men, capable of carrying the play. The Blackhawks also sent Patrick Sharp, Robert Lang, Jason Williams, Martin Havlat, Rene Bourque, Martin Lapointe, Craig Adams, Sergei Samsonov, Adam Burish, Kevyn Adams, and Yanic Perreault out that season.
Below is a table displaying the Corsi Rel. QoC Rank for the Blackhawks forwards in the 2007-2008 season, and the data was supplied by Behind The Net.
| Corsi Rel QoC Rank | Forward |
| 1 | Dave Bolland |
| 2 | Jason Williams |
| 3 | Patrick Sharp |
| 4 | Rene Bourque |
| 5 | Adam Burish |
| 6 | Craig Adams |
| 7 | Andrew Ladd |
| 8 | Robert Lang |
| 9 | Yanic Perreault |
| 10 | Jonathan Toews |
| 11 | Ben Eager |
| 12 | Patrick Kane |
| 13 | Martin Havlat |
This list doesn't include the players who were in Chicago for some part of the season - Martin Lapointe, Kevyn Adams, Sergei Samsonov - veteran NHL players to throw at NHL minutes. Toews and Kane were spoonfed the easiest of minutes as they learned their trade, yet the team still remained competitive. That Blackhawks team ended the season with 88 points. These Oilers are on pace to end this season with 68 points.
Where, then, can we find a comparison for the Oilers? Obviously the Chicago plan is out because the Edmonton Oilers cannot compete with the Blackhawks of 2007-2008 and are even further away from building the team the Blackhawks had in 2008-2009. Pittsburgh, for all intents and purposes is out - Sidney Crosby is not coming to Edmonton. The notion of building a cup-winning team through purposefully losing falls apart under analysis. Chicago had good management building winning teams. Pittsburgh threw away a half-decade of prospects before turning the franchise around on the rotation of a lottery ball. But there are teams who have managed to lose for extended periods and have nothing to show for it - a decade of lottery picks later and the Florida Panthers, Atlanta Thrashers and Columbus Blue Jackets are still stick in the aether. A team without once-in-a-generation luck and without strong managers dedicated to building a club around lottery picks is more likely to end up swimming in the aether, not swimming in champagne poured from the Stanley Cup.
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Yup
Yeah, I’m starting to lose my mind on this stuff. I’m stunned how quickly everyone is erasin the white board and hoping no one stops to think. What’s worse is it actually seems to be working.
The biggest hammer which I don’t even bother bringing up is that these guys actually tried to send Penner, Cogs and Smid away for 7+ million of Danny Heatley!!! Could you imagine what a mess we’d be in? I just had to laugh when the ink started spinning Souray being too much poison for the room this year. The best moves these guys have made in years are the ones that they tried but failed to go through. That is pretty damning.
Hopefully somebody starts putting the iron anywhere near the fire sooner than later or we are likely going to end up ‘Milburied’.
Keep up the good work!
The Oilers could fill the roster with middle of the pack free agents but they would still be fighting for a playoff spot, might as well let the young guys play see what you have ship out the bad and get some talent through the draft and fill out the holes in the roster with middle tier free agents. You said yourself no one wants to sign here so how else are the oilers to get talent?
might as well let the young guys play see what you have ship out the bad and get some talent through the draft and fill out the holes in the roster with middle tier free agents. You said yourself no one wants to sign here so how else are the oilers to get talent?
I’ve already gone through this in many other articles, but this group has ignored a basic need on this team, a reliable center, then exaggerated it by sending away Brodziak for a wooden nickel since they lost Reasoner and traded Stoll. Do you honestly think that someone in the Wes Walz tree has been completely unobtainable for three years?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Great post. Now that the Devils are down in the mire, there’s a segment of fans who seem to think that ‘tanking’ next year would also be optimal. It’s worth it if you snag a generational player, but the odds of doing that are just not that good. People overlook Keith, Seabrook, and Sharp when it comes to discussing the Hawks rebirth – apparently it’s all Toews and Kane.
I must say that all what has happened is not for trying. Only this season has the Oilers management given up and have not made any moves to improve the roster. It was only at the trade deadline last season than the management decided that its rebuild time. Hence they cant be faulted on that.
Lets look at the defense we had at the start of the season:
Souray Gilbert
Visnovsky Smid
Grebeshkov Staois
That is a pretty darn good defense and not one that a lottery team would have. Then up front we were
Hemsky-Horcoff-Penner
POS-Gagner-Brule
Moreau-Cogliano-Pisani
JFJ-Potulny?- Stone
Agreed we have holes there such as not many good PKers and old useless veterans. But again not one that resembles a lottery team. There was a certain amount of bad luck involved with the number of injuries and them occurring all at once. Where the management was at fault was that they did not have a contingency plan in case of injuries. POS was supposed to rebound from a disappointing campaign and all of us were rooting for it. It only got clear 30-35 games into the season that all the hopes/ expectations people had were all wrong.
The whole talk of Chicago model/ Pittsburg model started this off season. Until last year all the talk was of Detroit model. One thing I agree with you is the lack of planning and foresight. They way the season has gone, I am ready to give Tambo a pass on this season. With our roster build-up, we arent going to be winning much. So no point being mediocre. Bettman’s system has given us a reward for losing and we can go ahead and reap it. I agree that Pittsburgh got lucky and they wouldnt have won the cup without Crosby, but then again it was done by collecting a bunch of top 2 picks.
Talking about veterans not being around to help the youngsters, that too is not entirely true. We have Horc, Hemmer and Penner. Now next season Gagner would be at a similar age as Bolland was then. Yes we are missing a few rugged defensive wingers, but then again we should see what he does at the trade deadline and the off-season. We already almost have all the nucleus ready to make the push. We need those complementary players and I think we should get them.
Talking about Edmonton as a team with a tank job. That is not the image which is portrayed about them in the media. Edmonton is being talked about the next team to challenge the powers in the league. I dont know if it is the Oiler PR team or just the general optimism people have after a team acquired a number one pick. Furthermore this team also doesnt suffer from lack of funds. I see no reason why Oilers shouldnt be able to attract free agents this off season. Only Heatley and Nylander snub should be taken as a talking point about top(ish) players not wanting to play here. Hossa wanted to win a cup and wanted it badly and him going to Detroit is not as much a snub to us as it was to the Penguins. Pronger left due to dubious reason only after signing a longish extension.
I agree that there is some sort of a good luck involved in this kind of a rebuild, but it looks like the luck is on our side. Eberle, Hall, MPS and even Gagner seem to be a much better nucleus of forwards than what Florida, CBJ and even Atlanta had early on in their rebuilds. We have a very strong foundation at our rebuild just like Chicago/Pittsburgh and Washington. The JFJ experiment seems to be bearing its end. I really think that the Khabibulin riding will stop after this season. 2 of the above mentioned teams had strong defensive core and something which will have to be addressed in this off season.
Tambellini has made some goo moves:
Acquiring Erik Cole, then POS, Ales Kotalik, Colin Fraser. In retrospect the Visnovsky and Grebeshkov trade. Where his failures lie is him trying to fill the holes. What where bad-luck lies is that some/most of the moves did not work out well. We all liked those moves when they happened and hence we shouldn’t put it in as a negative. Maybe our pro-scouting needs changing that they are not able to evaluate the play of those players properly.
I am ready to give him another trade deadline and at least the early part of off season to evaluate what he does. If he continues the mantra of rebuild and picks and blah blah and does nothing of significance, then I will be fully against him.
by SumOil on Jan 10, 2011 10:43 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
agreed
We can all say those trades were terrible but I don’t think anyone expected Pitkanen/Cole/POS to not perform. It was a tough break. Like sumoil said we have a solid nucleus so now its time to find out who else can play, whats the point of filling those spots with aging veterans who won’t be here in two years, might as well see what we have with other gusy and cut ties with the guys who don’t fit then in two years fill those holes and compete. I would say this is the start of Tambos team, last years team definatly wasn’t his and he did a great job of dumping contracts and getting rid of guys, I agree with sumoil give him the deadline and off season and then evaluate him, I would much rather him do nothing and get a top pick, then sign usless overpaid veterans and finish out of the bottom five but still not in the playoffs.
I would much rather him do nothing and get a top pick, then sign usless overpaid veterans and finish out of the bottom five but still not in the playoffs.
Who said anything about useless, overpaid veterans?
You see a plan to get lottery picks, which is what I say won’t work above, I see exactly what Sheps said in his previous article:
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I haven’t felt like the Oilers management really beleived they were in rebuild mode until the trade deadline last season. You don’t ever hire Pat Quinn as coach for a rebuilding team. Ever.
And that, I think has been one of Oilers managements’ two biggest problems: they totally have overvalued the talent they had. Horcoff and Pisani are two good examples at contract time, but in general they seemed to think the team was a lot closer to a playoff team then they really could ever hope to be.
And I don’t think this management team really has a plan at all. Sucking and getting high draft picks isn’t a plan.
What concerns me most is the organization is building a culture of losing. Before the season I argued with friends that the Oilers would be better off sending players like Eberle and MPS down to the minors, regardless of how well they played in training camp to allow them to excel and be part of a winning culture in OKC (an assumption, but one that seems to be coming true and would be much stronger with Eberle and MPS)while management finishes clearing out the deadwood with the big club. Even if that meant sending Hall back to Junior.
This season is lost, but next season needs to include some significant steps forward. The Oilers need to strive to be an 80-85 point team next year, and use thier cap space to bring in some winners who can play solid defensive hockey to support the kids or the Oilers will be Florida/Columbus.
Look what Dudley did in Atlanta this past summer. He didn’t go after Campbell or some of the other high priced talent in Chicago. He took in some terrific support players with positive attitudes and a will to win and changed the culture. Hopefully Tambi is paying attention. And franky, if tambi wasn’t in the bidding for some of the players Atlanta got, upper management should be asking why not? Cause if he wasn’t, then he doesn’t have a plan or a clue.
Along this line, I am concerned that some of the longer tenured Oilers, like Horcoff, Gilbert, Smid, Cogs and Gagner have gotten too used to losing. Too many nights there is too little spark out of the Oilers and its the tenured core that needs to be held accountable. It may be in both thier and the Oilers best interest to strategically move some of the players out for a fresh start on both sides. We don’t want to grow our own Bouwmeester or Jokinen here.
I will be watching what the Oilers do at the deadline closely to see any signs of hope. The days leading up to the draft also bear watching. But like SumOil, if I don’t see some holes being filled wisely (as oppposed to the Burke way, like throwing $3M per at 3rd line players and $4.5M at a player coming off a season like this [http://bleacherreport.com/articles/139778-the-montreal-canadiens-and-the-recent-struggles-of-mike-komisarek]) all faith will be lost and it will be time for a change in management, starting with Lowe and Tambi..
Depends on what third-liner you’re throwing the millions at. I look at Pittsburgh and see “third-liner” Jordan Staal making $4 million, and I look at Chicago and there’s “third-liner” (and Derek fave) Dave Bolland making $3.375 MM, both of them on long-term pacts, and I don’t see a whole lot not to like.
Thing is, they are Exhibits A and 1 as to why the Oilers don’t fit either the Pittsburgh or the Chicago “model”. Strength down centre, such as they can run out a 3C the calibre of these guys. Built through the draft, not the open market, mind; young guys both including one of them a very high draft pick. Now maybe if you put on your rosiest glasses you see Gagner and Cogliano as 2/3 of a future top three C that will be able to compete on that level, but I personally don’t see it that way. The Oilers have strength on the wings that those clubs – esp. Pittsburgh – don’t have, but again that speaks to the folly of following any particular “model”, unless you are talking in the crudest possible sense of accumulating multiple top-three class picks and taking BPA. The make-up of the actual rosters is not really comparable At All.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 10, 2011 3:28 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I couldn’t agree with you more on Gagner and Cogs. In the fan post series I wrote the centre position was one of the key areas I highlighted and I proposed that Penner, Hemsky and Gagner be put on the block in an attempt to get a top centre and a top flight shut down defenseman, whichever the 2011 1st round pick does not bring (he says crossing his fingers that it brings Courtier or Larsson and not another left winger of which there seem to be many at the top of the draft class, or a smurf defenceman).
I would feel better if one of those assets was used to leverage Brayden Schenn from LA (a team that should be motivated after losing again last night – to the Leafs!), or other interesting options like Joe Colbourne (BOS – too many centres signed to NHL contracts), Jared Cowan (OTT – desperate GM) or Erik Gudbranson (FLA – contract squabbles, need offense deperately).
The problem with paying Staal $4M is you end up with dollar store wingers for your top 2 lines. I don’t think keeping Staal as a 3rd liner is sustainable and Pitt will move him or Malkin eventually, likely within the next 12 months, to address the imbalance, especially now they proved they can win without him. As for Bolland, there are exceptions to every rule but you shouldn’t make business plans based on exceptions.
paying Staal 4m is never, ever, ever a problem. Paying Malkin 8.7, or Fleury 5—that’s a problem.
by Passive Voice on Jan 11, 2011 2:25 PM MST up reply actions
If the ingeniously sly plan to not obviously tank was so cunning, why does so much of it rely on bad luck and poor health? If management were so breathtakingly subtle, why did they assemble a team that, if healthy, wouldn’t deliver a lottery pick, and if healthy except for their MVP goalie might not even deliver a top ten pick?
It doesn’t rely on bad luck and poor health, it counts on it. That’s what makes it so cunning.
I know this is somewhat of a contrarian point of view, but it seems you’re more open to incompetence on behalf of an experienced management team (that includes a self-made billionaire) than the thought that there might be some method to this apparent madness. We’re talking about the same management group that has seemingly constructed a pretty fair farm team in Oklahoma.
The thing is, I can’t assume someone is stupid until I understand the context of his decisions. What may seem incomprehensible to us may in the light of day actually be quite coherent, if not downright brilliant. And no, I’m not wearing any rose colored glasses as our management group goes, merely making the assumption they’re not complete idiots – which is far too easy an out IMO.
*cough* Bad intro *cough*
That first sentence didn’t come off too well, did it?
Anyways, what I meant was that the hypothetical “Plan” might assume there will be injuries and health problems. The catch is, it intentionally doesn’t have contingencies or fall-back scenarios built in. Like you said, the team (as built) would have to be 100% healthy all the time and still exceed expectations to even contend for a playoff spot. Since the probability of that situation panning out is so low, the odds of the “plan” succeeding are relatively high. All Steve and Kevin have to do is say “we tried” (i.e. the staged Malholtra gambit) and suffer the occasional egging of their homes for the next year on the way to the next lottery pick in June.
but it seems you’re more open to incompetence on behalf of an experienced management team (that includes a self-made billionaire) than the thought that there might be some method to this apparent madness.
The three primary members of the management team:
1. Presided and had an active hand in the destruction of a cup finals team, turning them into a laughingstock.
2. Spent 20 years in management in one organization and was not hired as a general manager, and was passed over three times.
3. Has demonstrated a complete lack of basic understanding of the collective bargaining agreement.
Which is more likely? Incompetence, previously demonstrated by each of these men, or the notion that these three executives have all of a sudden become the NHL’s version of Machiavelli’s princes?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I know. On the surface what you propose is completely logical and well reasoned. It just seems far too easy, on top of which none of us have any real context for the decisions that have been made in the past. It seems alot of decisions these days are being based on nothing more than a whack of fan conjecture.
BTW – Who’s to say that Darryl Katz isn’t running this game alot more than we know? For all we know, he might qualify as one of “Machiavelli’s princes”.
. It just seems far too easy,
You’ve someone managed to interchange “logical” and “referenceable” with easy.
Easy is what you and many other fans suggest. That this latest failure is simply a long con on the rest of the league and it’s the true path to success. It’s easy to believe because it’s what a fan wants to believe.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Not quite
I’m not suggesting the latest failure has anything to do with previous events. What I am offering is an alternative to a hypothesis based on what fans would do if they were in management’s shoes.
Problem is, they’re not. They don’t access to the same information management does, thus in this case people are coming to different conclusions and assuming management are idiots. Not that I’m saying Tambellini and Lowe are Nobel lauriates, but the alternative line of thought (that they’re plain incompetent) just seems a bit too broad brush. It could just as easily have been have been that Katz just got tired of failing to acquire key assets the old fashioned way and said “screw it” , or was persuaded to do so by management. The hypothesis in this case almost perfectly explains the actions (or lack of) taken.
Here’s the real nut punch. Because neither of us have the full knowledge of the situation, either option is equally valid. Thus begging the question “What if they ARE tanking”?
Thus begging the question
Don’t do that.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Time is now
Tambellini did a good job of creating cap room and clearing out a lot of players that needed to go, or have a change of scenery. Now comes the hard part – the important part.
There are no generational players coming up in the foreseeable future, or we would know of them already. We have a good young core again, but a few more choice players are needed, and needed soon, so that they can grow together and peak together.
If this draws out too long we risk missing the timing with Hall and Eberle, or we lose them down the road because they want to play on a winner. Or we stay mediocre and start having cap issues resigning the rookies. If the team is not a winner at that time, those resignings will be at top dollar. If the team is a contender, the players may chose to get paid well but not test the market to keep the team together and play on a winner.
Tambellini needs to get busy and trade some assets for key players or lottery draft picks. There are deals to be done if he is creative and balsy enough. Hemsky is player who will command top return and is at his peak value. The team can win without him, more than without a top centre or defenceman. The Isles, Bruins or Devils would do that deal if Tambellini is willing to, and he should.
Tambellini should go for as many high picks as he can, this year and next, by clearing the log jam at forward, moving guys that aren’t core or don’t fit. Trade Hemsky, Gilbert, Gagner, whoever (my core is Hall, Ebs, Penner, Whitney, Peckham, Dubnyk, MPS, Petry at the moment) and having the courage to do so. It is easier to fill out the bottom 6, and he should get busy finding those players this summer and make sure the team has what it needs going forward, and keep signing or trading until enough right pieces are acquired.
The time has come – the ball is finally rolling. 5 years is enough for a well done rebuild not longer, and we’re a few years in at least already. Define who the players needed are, decide what an Oiler player should be (for me drive, mobility and size are key and should be for Tambellini) and do it. Then all that is left is to teach them what it takes to win day in and day out.
If he can’t start acquiring the needed assets beginning soon and definitely by the start of next season, Tambellini to me would show he’s not the right guy for the job or this team.
We have a good young core again, but a few more choice players are needed, and needed soon, so that they can grow together and peak together.
…
If he can’t start acquiring the needed assets beginning soon…
Does Ryan Whitney (and Brandon Davidson) for Lubo Visnovsky count as a “needed asset”? Admittedly on the older edge of the cluster, but part of the point is finding men for these boys to play with, no? Better one who is entering rather than exiting his prime, surely.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 10, 2011 3:16 PM MST up reply actions
Tambellini needs to make deals that change the balance on the roster. Lubo for Whitney isn’t much of a change in type, but still may have long term benefit if Whitney can play full seasons ever.
No more gambles on high health risks (Khabi and Whitney) – move the ones that are looming before it’s too late, or at least be merciless at the signing table.
I want to see deals like Gilbert for Bogosian or Gudbranson. If he’s dealing Hemsky it should be for a top centre or top 5 pick to get one. Omark for Zach Kassian.
Most agree it needs to be done, and really shouldn’t hard when you are selling offense for grit and/or defense.
How much cap room did he create and what did he spend it on?
The problem with this team is that it has made a lot of deals that don’t work out too badly on their own merit, but in the context of building a hockey team don’t make a lick of sense.
Great, Tambo cleared out cap room… but all the cap room he cleared out were deals that expired this year anyways, in a season he’s not spending anywhere near the cap.
Had he made these moves and added some real legitimiate NHL talent to plug the holes in the roster this wouldn’t be a conversation.
Instead he has to go to work and can’t get there because he sold his old car and forgot to buy a new one.
Looking at each move on it’s own doesn’t let you fully appreciate how poorly thought out the whole thing actually was.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I generally agree with your analysis that tanking is a bad idea, but unless you’re talking about truly exceptional health (rather than just average health) with your “if healthy” caveat, I don’t see how this club is anything other than a lottery team. They didn’t have many injuries at all through the first quarter of the year, but they were still awful. I don’t like the “tanking” plan, and I don’t think they came into this year hunting for another last place finish, but I do think the management group expected another season out of the playoffs. They’re on record as a team that’s willing to spend to succeed, but this season they’re near the bottom of the heap in terms of payroll (if we exclude Souray), which leads me to believe that they came into the year expecting it to be a losing season, and quite possibly another year in the lottery.
A non-cap lottery team is easier to swallow than a lottery team that’s capped out. That was awful.
Not that empty space on the payroll makes the on-ice product any better, but at least you see how the team can add a piece or two whereas last year it was gridlock any way you looked at it.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 10, 2011 4:10 PM MST up reply actions
The problem remains – there is no accumulation of value, no incremental changes for the better.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I repeat, Visnovsky for Whitney?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 11, 2011 12:16 AM MST up reply actions
How is that an incremental change for the better? The pick certainly helps, but Visnovsky was outstanding. If Whitney didn’t have the benefit of a ridiculous (especially on this team) PDO of 106, the trade wouldn’t look so great right now…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Like It
Classic “what do you have to lose?” scenario. If he fails, put him back on the wing. If he’s awesome, hooray they may have helped fill a whole in the roster!
And honestly he can’t be any worse than Cogliano can he?
has anyone in the org ever said why they haven’t tried all three of the kids at centre? what the hell do they have to lose?
by Passive Voice on Jan 11, 2011 2:34 PM MST up reply actions
I find myself torn on this.
Were I doing a rebuild then this year would be almost exactly what I would order. Bad goaltending and a total lack of depth? Check and check. I wouldn’t have kept Hall or MPS on the big team, would have signed Pisani to a retirement contract (less for sentimental reasons and more for mentoring reasons) and would have gone with the POS buy-out and kept Johnson (though I don’t mind Vandemeer as much as others do).
That said – imo – Oilers management is amost completely incompetent. The full rebuild option was obvious after the Smyth trade / 2007 off-season gongshow and if it the whole rebuild had been handled properly (i.e. better assets return for Smyth, no Penner, no Gagner early, keep Brodziak, etc, etc) the Oilers should be coming out of it next year.
I just have no confidence that Tambellini will bring in a Dave Lumley, Pat Price, Lee Fogolin etal to shore up the leadership factors on the teamwhile the young guys get their act together.
Instead of watching this team start up the path to respectability it is 50/50 that the Oilers are picking top-5 again NEXT year. And that just shouldn’t happen. I half expect that Lowebellini will fall in love with losing… that they’ll never figure out that losing only makes sense if you plan to win. Frans Neilson has 1 year left on his contract after this one – will these guys have the brains to make a serious play for a guy like that? I don’t see it.
A little luck with the scouting is all that is keeping this team from total irrelevance.
I don’t know if they planned for this year to be as bad as it is but I am almost certain they are completely okay with it.
by Jaysen Knight on Jan 11, 2011 12:57 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
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